China will be shooting itself in both feet if it -- or its citizenry -- puts the screws on Apple. It's not just the hardware assembly jobs or in Apple offices and retail stores there, but the many multiples of that number working for makers of cases, accessories, apps, and media content, for starters.
I dare them to try throttling Apple in China.
If everything continues on current trajectory, its inevitable that Apple gets slapped with 25% tariff. But probably will one of the last companies. And not because they’re big, China doesn’t really cares if company is big or not. But because they actively try to find out some solutions to prevent this trade war. They try to mediate between us and china.
But that "25% tariff" would be imposed by the US, not China. Tariffs are a tax on imports. Apple's products are produced mostly in China's SEZs. China isn't taxing goods moving within in country with tariffs, but rather VAT. And the country is lower those taxes to boost its domestic economic activity.
Trump certainly might continue to raise his import taxes, which are paid for by the Americans who wear his made-in-China MAGA hats to show how patriotic they are. And he may continue to destroy overseas market opportunities for American farmers, and then bail them out with massive billions in state subsidies that will no doubt continue to prop up farming forever. Recall how central state-planned subsidized farming worked so well for Russia! But China isn't going to be taxing iPhones to prop up Huawei because that makes no sense.
China's interest in Huawei is mostly related to building networking equipment, the most significant thing the company does. It still barely makes any money. It is almost certainly losing money on handsets, particularly the higher end models that Android fans shout about. The goal there is just to stay in business long enough to drive out any competition, and then like Google it owns everything and can set prices as desired.
Most Americans are too cheap to buy locally. They went to Asia for their TVs, then cars, and now virtually everything. Trump likes to blame the trade imbalance on China, but you can't sell goods to a nation that's self sufficient. Rural red states already defied Obama's guidelines to stop buying from Huawai. Obama stopped Tmobile from building ta Huawei network. The red states went out and "MAGA" by buying cheap Chinese networking gear from Huawei, because they like nothing more than buying cheap shit from China.
America already has installed a network that feeds China: Walmart. All the MAGA hats line up to pay for their China's exports and then go home to watch Fox News tell them that China is tricking them into a trade deficit. Maybe stop eating $1 chickens and wearing $10 sweatpants paid for with your government farm subsidies to sit back and watch state run TV glorifying an Adderall grifter as the new Jesus Christ.
Trump certainly might continue to raise his import taxes, which are paid for by the Americans who wear his made-in-China MAGA hats to show how patriotic they are.
Your name is corrections, but I am going to have to correct you on that claim, as the official Trump MAGA hats are not made in China, they are made in the USA.
The existence of fake China made hats doesn't change that. China makes fake copies of everything, including MAGA hats and Apple products too.
The only place online to purchase the Official Make America Great Again classic rope hat as worn by Trump, himself
So maybe some recent hats have been made in the USA, but most of the merch is not. Of the 268 items for sale on the Trump store, 41 are made in the USA (that's 15%).
That's also pretty immaterial given that most of the MAGA hat wearers are not buying from the Trump store, they're getting them from China via Walmart, which is the point of the comment. Americans in red states have been poor since Reagan, and have been slavishly buying imports from big box retail and foreign companies ever since, including the flags they "patriotically" wave.
Trump's campaign, his merch, and his previous businesses from ties to construction projects have been staffed with undocumented workers and sourced from overseas. The problem isn't that nobody should move manufacturing to where labor is cheaper, it's that anyone who is campaigning on a platform of tariffs and 19 Century mercantilism and vilifying globalism shouldn't be such a phony liar, and shouldn't be promising that he's going to bring back coal mining and 1950s manufacturing to America, when it's clear, as Steve Jobs told Obama, that "those jobs aren't coming back."
Technically Huawei is already using their own OS. In china they have android without any Google apps and I believe there’s nothing what would prevent them to use it in whole world. They just have to translate it. In China they also have built whole app ecosystem around it, which could also be expanded to whole world. For example in Africa it should not be problem to sell it with this OS, most people would not care. Most Asia is same thing, so they already have market with few billion people. From western countries they will most likely have to pull back for few years, because for now it’s difficult to imagine that their phones will sell here without Google apps, but most likely they’ll return after few years, when theirs apps became better and they gain more local developers. But biggest looser will be Google, not because it will loose little money from Huawei, but because they force creation of this big split from their platform, which until now didn’t had competition.
No, Android in China is not Huawei's "own OS," and that's not what its planning to use.
Also, the issue isn't phones in Africa. It's "premium tier" Androids sold in Europe for around $300-400. Huawei has established a base of users there, but without Google's Android it's going to be really hard to sell against similar priced BKK or Samsung Androids. Nobody is buying them for the Huawei name, they're buying them for the cheap Android with relatively high specs.
Huawai can't sell phones with Chinese services on them because Chinese services don't support EU markets. Most people in Germany or the UK are not trying to watch Chinese movies and get maps for Beijing. Huawei was trying to enter the US, and it got knocked out of other western markets. That is a pretty big problem for it.
You're right that it's also a problem for Google. Android in China isn't helping Google already, and splintering the #2 Android maker into its own version or copycat instance of an ARK platform is not only "not good," but also opens up the potential for Samsung to launch non-Android or Fire-like Android forks of its own, which would turn Google Android from a big platform into a small insignificant platform next to the Samsung OS and Huawei OS, and perhaps LG webOS. That's already happened in TVs.
And if that occurs, there's no putting Android back under Google's control in any way, and you end up with a bunch of stagnant, licensees doing dumb things and destroying themselves just ilke Symbian.
China is smart and they’ll Play it smart. They know they’re dealing with a madman playing to his base.
But, they are taking this attack on their country and the private industry seriously and they are not going to back down. As they said today: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you”.
Hopefully Trump realizes he has already taken this game too far.
HAHAHA, I needed that laugh. Your delusions are pretty funny.
Delusional indeed. I thought that Trump Derangement Syndrome was a pop culture political term. But I’m beginning to think that the American Psychiatric Association may end up classifying this as a real disorder. On the other hand some people just like trolling.
No, some people like reality... But, to the MadHatter's of Trumplandia, reality is defined by Alternative Facts and Kansas is not real.
But, it's telling that, as Trump's arguments against China and Huawei fall apart under scrutiny, that his loyalists resort to personal attacks. It's pretty typical of the right. Standard procedure in fact.
If everything continues on current trajectory, it's inevitable that Apple gets slapped with 25% tariff. But probably will one of the last companies. And not because they’re big, China doesn’t really cares if company is big or not. But because they actively try to find out some solutions to prevent this trade war. They try to mediate between us and china.
But that "25% tariff" would be imposed by the US, not China. Tariffs are a tax on imports. Apple's products are produced mostly in China's SEZs. China isn't taxing goods moving within in country with tariffs, but rather VAT. And the country is lower those taxes to boost its domestic economic activity.
My understanding is that there are tariffs on selling to mainland China from SEZs, but they are set to 0%. Then they can easily set it to 25%. It will not hurt China too much, because it will be directed only on sales to Chinese market. But Apple will have problem with sales in China. For rest of world, including US they can produce it without tariffs.
Technically Huawei is already using their own OS. In china they have android without any Google apps and I believe there’s nothing what would prevent them to use it in whole world. They just have to translate it. In China they also have built whole app ecosystem around it, which could also be expanded to whole world. For example in Africa it should not be problem to sell it with this OS, most people would not care. Most Asia is same thing, so they already have market with few billion people. From western countries they will most likely have to pull back for few years, because for now it’s difficult to imagine that their phones will sell here without Google apps, but most likely they’ll return after few years, when theirs apps became better and they gain more local developers. But biggest looser will be Google, not because it will loose little money from Huawei, but because they force creation of this big split from their platform, which until now didn’t had competition.
No, Android in China is not Huawei's "own OS," and that's not what its planning to use.
What would they use then? I didn't see any info on it. It would be illogical to use something what is not compatible with android. That will make thinks even more difficult.
Also, the issue isn't phones in Africa. It's "premium tier" Androids sold in Europe for around $300-400. Huawei has established a base of users there, but without Google's Android it's going to be really hard to sell against similar priced BKK or Samsung Androids. Nobody is buying them for the Huawei name, they're buying them for the cheap Android with relatively high specs. Huawai can't sell phones with Chinese services on them because Chinese services don't support EU markets. Most people in Germany or the UK are not trying to watch Chinese movies and get maps for Beijing. Huawei was trying to enter the US, and it got knocked out of other western markets. That is a pretty big problem for it.
Thats what I was writing, they will have to retract from western markets for few years, until they develop software for western markets. But looking on where they make sales it should not be such a problem. From Western markets have about 30% of income. It's bad, but it's not destroying company. Africa will not save them, but they can operate there easily and it's friendly market.
You're right that it's also a problem for Google. Android in China isn't helping Google already, and splintering the #2 Android maker into its own version or copycat instance of an ARK platform is not only "not good," but also opens up the potential for Samsung to launch non-Android or Fire-like Android forks of its own, which would turn Google Android from a big platform into a small insignificant platform next to the Samsung OS and Huawei OS, and perhaps LG webOS. That's already happened in TVs. And if that occurs, there's no putting Android back under Google's control in any way, and you end up with a bunch of stagnant, licensees doing dumb things and destroying themselves just ilke Symbian.
You are right it can create opportunity for Samsung to have their own fork of android, its just question if they want to invest lot of money into new software when their mobile profits are not great. But it will not create stagnant Android. Android is developing more like nature, rapidly building something and then destroying it when it's not used and you can do almost anything. You can say this process it's not efficient, it's wasteful or it's not stable, but it's never stagnant. Apple is more like garden which is carefully cared for, but on other side it has more limits what you can do.
"According to a wide variety of analysts who follow Apple" ... "It's mostly just bad news for Apple, because both the state and people of China are going to respond by shunning Apple's products"
This is literally impossible to be 'mostly just bad news for Apple' in the eyes of those analysts.
There is not even a point of comparison between Huawei and the rest of the players involved in this mess.
I have doubts about a 'wide variety of analysts that follow Apple' seeing things as less bad for Huawei than for Apple.
Which analysts have even come close to comparing the two and reaching that conclusion? I haven't seen one. I'd say that it is universally concluded that Huawei is in a worse situation - and by far!
Apple will probably take a hit in China but that will be just a pinch to its business when compared to the punch Trump is trying to land on Huawei.
No one can compare a company (Apple) seeing a contraction in sales in one country to another company (Huawei) which has had a huge chunk of it core suppliers cut off with no notice - worldwide.
Even if China retaliates against Apple directly, the situation would still not be comparable as China wouldn't be trying to put Apple out of business. Trump is trying to do that with Huawei and a senator has even gone on record with those exact words.
Which analysts have said Huawei's situation is just 'maybe somewhat bad' when compared to Apple's and claimed it to be 'mostly just bad?
"That's wrong, here's why"
What looks wrong is the premise of the article:
"According to a wide variety of analysts following Apple, the Trump Administration's trade war with China and its Entity Listing of Huawei is maybe somewhat bad for the largest Android producer in China--and perhaps even for Android, given that it has now lost its second largest licensee globally--but it's mostly just bad news for Apple, because both the state and people of China are going to respond by shunning Apple's products. That's wrong, here's why."
What is clear - today - is that Huawei and China have the most to lose economically, technologically and strategically. The US and Apple and the rest of the world will also lose.
Longer term, the US and its tech sector might rue this situation long after Trump has gone because we can all be sure that everyone and their mother will be accelerating their efforts in self dependency to avoid being put into the same situation as Huawei.
This process was already under way, but given the blatant abuse of power used by Trump against Huawei, the rest of the world has convinced itself that depending on US technology is not a situation they want to be in.
China is smart and they’ll Play it smart. They know they’re dealing with a madman playing to his base.
But, they are taking this attack on their country and the private industry seriously and they are not going to back down. As they said today: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you”.
Hopefully Trump realizes he has already taken this game too far.
China has nothing to warn the US with. Rare earth metals is their latest ploy and it won't work. They get their ore from here in the US. The US has plenty of rare earth metals in storage and the only limit is that it is disgusting to refine but we can do it if needed. China is thinking Trump is in trouble here and won't push for what China really needs to do, and that's do an actual crack down on IP theft as well as stop manipulating their currency in order to screw every country they do business with. Both of those are required, and they tried to back out.
China has exactly ZERO leverage in this dispute, and they know it.
China is a massive commercial market that is growing incredibly fast, the loser here would mostly be the US.
Wrong. China has way more to lose. Their whole economy is artificially propped up by their commie govt, and they will either have to make a fair deal with the mighty USA or suffer the consequences. The USA is the only country in the world that can stand up to China, unlike other tiny impotent countries, which have just gotten used to being pushed around, because they're too weak to do anything about it.
I think China is about to escalate the tit for tat and put an US export embargo on rare earth minerals. The importance of this to the US can’t be understated. Virtually all of the US supply is currently sourced from China. Rare earth minerals are essential for the semiconductor and defense industries, so this could be a really big problem depending on what the US stock piles are currently sitting at. If you think Huawei have problems just wait till you see the ripples from this.
Wrong. China did this to Japan once before and in doing so tipped their hand to their gameplan. The US has stockpiled the rare earth metals it needs to keep running for a long time. Apple has learned to recycle the metals out of old devices. China needs the US ore in order to process and sell to other countries, so if they decide to play with Rare Earth Metals they are going to end up losing their largest supplier. The US supplies China with 80% of the ore they refine into those metals, and only CHina does it because it is so toxic no one else in their right mind is willing to do so. If China refuses to sell refined metals to us, we stop shipping ore to them. Then they have nothing to sell to anyone. Checkm-mate, China.
China is smart and they’ll Play it smart. They know they’re dealing with a madman playing to his base.
But, they are taking this attack on their country and the private industry seriously and they are not going to back down. As they said today: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you”.
Hopefully Trump realizes he has already taken this game too far.
China has nothing to warn the US with. Rare earth metals is their latest ploy and it won't work. They get their ore from here in the US. The US has plenty of rare earth metals in storage and the only limit is that it is disgusting to refine but we can do it if needed. China is thinking Trump is in trouble here and won't push for what China really needs to do, and that's do an actual crack down on IP theft as well as stop manipulating their currency in order to screw every country they do business with. Both of those are required, and they tried to back out.
China has exactly ZERO leverage in this dispute, and they know it.
China does have leverage and part of it will be the boomerang effect.
China is smart and they’ll Play it smart. They know they’re dealing with a madman playing to his base.
But, they are taking this attack on their country and the private industry seriously and they are not going to back down. As they said today: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you”.
Hopefully Trump realizes he has already taken this game too far.
China has nothing to warn the US with. Rare earth metals is their latest ploy and it won't work. They get their ore from here in the US. The US has plenty of rare earth metals in storage and the only limit is that it is disgusting to refine but we can do it if needed. China is thinking Trump is in trouble here and won't push for what China really needs to do, and that's do an actual crack down on IP theft as well as stop manipulating their currency in order to screw every country they do business with. Both of those are required, and they tried to back out.
China has exactly ZERO leverage in this dispute, and they know it.
China does have leverage and part of it will be the boomerang effect.
They planned to spend a trillion dollars on Boeing aircraft. They could switch that business into the EU.
They planned to invest billions into natural gas in Alaska. That could see changes.
Even on rare earths, it will be more expensive to process than for China (as well as damaging for the environment).
All the while China is developing its domestic demand to provide it with more protection from external factors.
The accumulative effect on US business (many are already suffering lost Huawei business) will also affect the US economy.
Etc.
And to top everything off they claim to be ready to slug things out over a long period of time. Trump said the battle would be easy to win and fast.
How much time does he have before the markets (or voters) give him a wake up call?
"How much time does he have before the markets (or voters" give him a wake up call.
Trump isn't being hurt by the trade wars except in a few agricultural states, where there is funds to mitigate some of the losses. Even there, the voters are much more likely to suck it up on the trade wars than replace Republicans with Democrats, mostly due to social issues.
If anything, the trade wars is one of the few issues that is universally supported by left, right, and center. Funny how that works even as Congress looks to Impeach the President.
Your misreading of the political forces in the U.S., I will put down to wishful thinking.
As for the rare earths, Chinese industry is the biggest user of these for components that ship to the rest of the world. China is all bluster on rare earths. They wouldn't want to give up the value of those products to "punish" the U.S., and China is certainly wary about the West launching a worldwide effort to bring more rare earth production on line.
Meanwhile, the West is looking to set up alternate production areas in Malaysia and Indonesia.
A bonus link to an article on China Subsidies of Huawei;
"Outside China, the country's state policy banks have provided financing to boost Huawei's sales to the developing world -- at times leaving the state on the hook when risky loans go bad.
Huawei inked a $10 billion credit line with the China Development Bank (CDB) in 2004 to provide low-cost financing to customers buying its telecom gear. It was tripled to $30 billion in 2009.
China's demand for infrastructure, including communications and internet gear, is not as high as it used to be, said CDB President Zheng Zhijie, so "what can we do with the excess production capacity? We can only send it abroad".
"We may give you loans to buy Chinese equipment or materials, but there must be a Chinese element," Zheng told AFP of his bank's loans to help Chinese firms expand abroad.
Brazilian telecom firm Telemar Norte Leste obtained a $500 million CDB loan in 2009 with a two-year grace period on principal payments at a well-below-market interest rate to buy Huawei gear.
This type of loan is known as export credit and primarily regulated under an OECD arrangement incorporated into the WTO.
But China has refused to sign on or abide by its rules, said Kristen Hopewell, an expert at the University of Edinburgh, adding the credit line for Huawei could be in violation of those rules.
Since 2015 China has provided more funding each year to support its exports than the OECD's 36 member-nations combined, according to US Export-Import Bank data."
"According to a wide variety of analysts who follow Apple" ... "It's mostly just bad news for Apple, because both the state and people of China are going to respond by shunning Apple's products"
This is literally impossible to be 'mostly just bad news for Apple' in the eyes of those analysts.
There is not even a point of comparison between Huawei and the rest of the players involved in this mess.
I have doubts about a 'wide variety of analysts that follow Apple' seeing things as less bad for Huawei than for Apple.
Which analysts have even come close to comparing the two and reaching that conclusion? I haven't seen one. I'd say that it is universally concluded that Huawei is in a worse situation - and by far!
Apple will probably take a hit in China but that will be just a pinch to its business when compared to the punch Trump is trying to land on Huawei.
No one can compare a company (Apple) seeing a contraction in sales in one country to another company (Huawei) which has had a huge chunk of it core suppliers cut off with no notice - worldwide.
Even if China retaliates against Apple directly, the situation would still not be comparable as China wouldn't be trying to put Apple out of business. Trump is trying to do that with Huawei and a senator has even gone on record with those exact words.
Which analysts have said Huawei's situation is just 'maybe somewhat bad' when compared to Apple's and claimed it to be 'mostly just bad?
"That's wrong, here's why"
What looks wrong is the premise of the article:
"According to a wide variety of analysts following Apple, the Trump Administration's trade war with China and its Entity Listing of Huawei is maybe somewhat bad for the largest Android producer in China--and perhaps even for Android, given that it has now lost its second largest licensee globally--but it's mostly just bad news for Apple, because both the state and people of China are going to respond by shunning Apple's products. That's wrong, here's why."
What is clear - today - is that Huawei and China have the most to lose economically, technologically and strategically. The US and Apple and the rest of the world will also lose.
Longer term, the US and its tech sector might rue this situation long after Trump has gone because we can all be sure that everyone and their mother will be accelerating their efforts in self dependency to avoid being put into the same situation as Huawei.
This process was already under way, but given the blatant abuse of power used by Trump against Huawei, the rest of the world has convinced itself that depending on US technology is not a situation they want to be in.
The irony of Trump cutting off Huawei's suppliers is that he has done the same thing that he has accused (without evidence) China of doing: Where the state dictates to private companies how they will conduct their business and who they will conduct it with.
But then to add insult to injury, he has definitively confirmed that the U.S. is no longer a reliable, trustworthy partner: Over the past 2 1/2 years, he has unilaterally abrogated a bunch of treaties and agreements (at least a half dozen) that have adversely affected the U.S.'s reputation with its friends and allies. But, by dictating to American and foreign suppliers that they are only permitted to deal with Trump approved customers, he has shown the U.S. to be untrustworthy to every nation in the world.
This will have ramifications throughout the world and for years to come as nations form new, more trustworthy,responsible and reliable alliances and partners -- not just in electronics but in industry, finance, healthcare, etc...
China is smart and they’ll Play it smart. They know they’re dealing with a madman playing to his base.
But, they are taking this attack on their country and the private industry seriously and they are not going to back down. As they said today: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you”.
Hopefully Trump realizes he has already taken this game too far.
China has nothing to warn the US with. Rare earth metals is their latest ploy and it won't work. They get their ore from here in the US. The US has plenty of rare earth metals in storage and the only limit is that it is disgusting to refine but we can do it if needed. China is thinking Trump is in trouble here and won't push for what China really needs to do, and that's do an actual crack down on IP theft as well as stop manipulating their currency in order to screw every country they do business with. Both of those are required, and they tried to back out.
China has exactly ZERO leverage in this dispute, and they know it.
China does have leverage and part of it will be the boomerang effect.
They planned to spend a trillion dollars on Boeing aircraft. They could switch that business into the EU.
They planned to invest billions into natural gas in Alaska. That could see changes.
Even on rare earths, it will be more expensive to process than for China (as well as damaging for the environment).
All the while China is developing its domestic demand to provide it with more protection from external factors.
The accumulative effect on US business (many are already suffering lost Huawei business) will also affect the US economy.
Etc.
And to top everything off they claim to be ready to slug things out over a long period of time. Trump said the battle would be easy to win and fast.
How much time does he have before the markets (or voters) give him a wake up call?
...
If anything, the trade wars is one of the few issues that is universally supported by left, right, and center. Funny how that works even as Congress looks to Impeach the President.
...
Well, no...
That might be the story on Faux, but not in reality.
At this point even the farm belt is telling Trump that they want trade not welfare. And, as his lies and spin are increasingly exposed and as he doubles and triples down on his original threats, fewer and fewer are staying impartial and beginning to point out the stupidity of this Trumped up war.
China is smart and they’ll Play it smart. They know they’re dealing with a madman playing to his base.
But, they are taking this attack on their country and the private industry seriously and they are not going to back down. As they said today: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you”.
Hopefully Trump realizes he has already taken this game too far.
China has nothing to warn the US with. Rare earth metals is their latest ploy and it won't work. They get their ore from here in the US. The US has plenty of rare earth metals in storage and the only limit is that it is disgusting to refine but we can do it if needed. China is thinking Trump is in trouble here and won't push for what China really needs to do, and that's do an actual crack down on IP theft as well as stop manipulating their currency in order to screw every country they do business with. Both of those are required, and they tried to back out.
China has exactly ZERO leverage in this dispute, and they know it.
China does have leverage and part of it will be the boomerang effect.
They planned to spend a trillion dollars on Boeing aircraft. They could switch that business into the EU.
They planned to invest billions into natural gas in Alaska. That could see changes.
Even on rare earths, it will be more expensive to process than for China (as well as damaging for the environment).
All the while China is developing its domestic demand to provide it with more protection from external factors.
The accumulative effect on US business (many are already suffering lost Huawei business) will also affect the US economy.
Etc.
And to top everything off they claim to be ready to slug things out over a long period of time. Trump said the battle would be easy to win and fast.
How much time does he have before the markets (or voters) give him a wake up call?
If there was any impact from the "planned spend" on Boeing then it isn't an impact. Unless there are orders signed or contracts signed, which they couldn't get out of without penalty, then there is no real impact because actual money isn't taken back. Also, it isn't like Airbus would have planes just sitting around so if there were plans and Boeing was holding orders for China airlines then they will lose that spot and get at the back of the line for Airbus. What are they going to fill that gap with? Hogwash is all that report is.
China isn't going to stop investment anywhere. It's their move if they want this resolved, just go along with what they initially agreed to before trying to play hardball at the last second.
The market is doing just fine. There are daily blips but almost always recovered within a day or two. Look at this morning, for instance.
China is smart and they’ll Play it smart. They know they’re dealing with a madman playing to his base.
But, they are taking this attack on their country and the private industry seriously and they are not going to back down. As they said today: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you”.
Hopefully Trump realizes he has already taken this game too far.
China has nothing to warn the US with. Rare earth metals is their latest ploy and it won't work. They get their ore from here in the US. The US has plenty of rare earth metals in storage and the only limit is that it is disgusting to refine but we can do it if needed. China is thinking Trump is in trouble here and won't push for what China really needs to do, and that's do an actual crack down on IP theft as well as stop manipulating their currency in order to screw every country they do business with. Both of those are required, and they tried to back out.
China has exactly ZERO leverage in this dispute, and they know it.
China does have leverage and part of it will be the boomerang effect.
They planned to spend a trillion dollars on Boeing aircraft. They could switch that business into the EU.
They planned to invest billions into natural gas in Alaska. That could see changes.
Even on rare earths, it will be more expensive to process than for China (as well as damaging for the environment).
All the while China is developing its domestic demand to provide it with more protection from external factors.
The accumulative effect on US business (many are already suffering lost Huawei business) will also affect the US economy.
Etc.
And to top everything off they claim to be ready to slug things out over a long period of time. Trump said the battle would be easy to win and fast.
How much time does he have before the markets (or voters) give him a wake up call?
...
If anything, the trade wars is one of the few issues that is universally supported by left, right, and center. Funny how that works even as Congress looks to Impeach the President.
...
Well, no...
That might be the story on Faux, but not in reality.
At this point even the farm belt is telling Trump that they want trade not welfare. And, as his lies and spin are increasingly exposed and as he doubles and triples down on his original threats, fewer and fewer are staying impartial and beginning to point out the stupidity of this Trumped up war.
GOP Senators continue to back Trump. They wouldn't if there was any concern about support in agriculture abandoning the party. Like I stated, farmers will suck it up.
I don't necessarily want Trump removed from office (President Pence?), but you do yourself no favors misrepresenting what is actually happening in U.S. Politics generally, and the Trade Wars in particular.
But that "25% tariff" would be imposed by the US, not China. Tariffs are a tax on imports. Apple's products are produced mostly in China's SEZs. China isn't taxing goods moving within in country with tariffs, but rather VAT. And the country is lower those taxes to boost its domestic economic activity.
Trump certainly might continue to raise his import taxes, which are paid for by the Americans who wear his made-in-China MAGA hats to show how patriotic they are. And he may continue to destroy overseas market opportunities for American farmers, and then bail them out with massive billions in state subsidies that will no doubt continue to prop up farming forever. ...... Most Americans are too cheap to buy locally. They went to Asia for their TVs, then cars, and now virtually everything. Trump likes to blame the trade imbalance on China, but you can't sell goods to a nation that's self sufficient. Rural red states already defied Obama's guidelines to stop buying from Huawai. Obama stopped Tmobile from building ta Huawei network. The red states went out and "MAGA" by buying cheap Chinese networking gear from Huawei, because they like nothing more than buying cheap shit from China. .....
...America already has installed a network that feeds China: Walmart.....
That's a lot of passive-aggressive, unnecessary snideness against Trump supporters. (For the record: I am not one).
Maybe your hand-wringing is true. Yet, somehow, the tariffs are not showing up in either domestic inflation or import prices -- why?
That aside, on a more substantive note, what's your solution to the trade and IP theft problem with China?
China is smart and they’ll Play it smart. They know they’re dealing with a madman playing to his base.
But, they are taking this attack on their country and the private industry seriously and they are not going to back down. As they said today: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you”.
Hopefully Trump realizes he has already taken this game too far.
China has nothing to warn the US with. Rare earth metals is their latest ploy and it won't work. They get their ore from here in the US. The US has plenty of rare earth metals in storage and the only limit is that it is disgusting to refine but we can do it if needed. China is thinking Trump is in trouble here and won't push for what China really needs to do, and that's do an actual crack down on IP theft as well as stop manipulating their currency in order to screw every country they do business with. Both of those are required, and they tried to back out.
China has exactly ZERO leverage in this dispute, and they know it.
China does have leverage and part of it will be the boomerang effect.
They planned to spend a trillion dollars on Boeing aircraft. They could switch that business into the EU.
They planned to invest billions into natural gas in Alaska. That could see changes.
Even on rare earths, it will be more expensive to process than for China (as well as damaging for the environment).
All the while China is developing its domestic demand to provide it with more protection from external factors.
The accumulative effect on US business (many are already suffering lost Huawei business) will also affect the US economy.
Etc.
And to top everything off they claim to be ready to slug things out over a long period of time. Trump said the battle would be easy to win and fast.
How much time does he have before the markets (or voters) give him a wake up call?
If there was any impact from the "planned spend" on Boeing then it isn't an impact. Unless there are orders signed or contracts signed, which they couldn't get out of without penalty, then there is no real impact because actual money isn't taken back. Also, it isn't like Airbus would have planes just sitting around so if there were plans and Boeing was holding orders for China airlines then they will lose that spot and get at the back of the line for Airbus. What are they going to fill that gap with? Hogwash is all that report is.
China isn't going to stop investment anywhere. It's their move if they want this resolved, just go along with what they initially agreed to before trying to play hardball at the last second.
The market is doing just fine. There are daily blips but almost always recovered within a day or two. Look at this morning, for instance.
Contracts they can't get out of? All they have to do is declare a National Security Emergency and declare Boeing a Security Risk. Easy! ... We do it all the time now...
China is smart and they’ll Play it smart. They know they’re dealing with a madman playing to his base.
But, they are taking this attack on their country and the private industry seriously and they are not going to back down. As they said today: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you”.
Hopefully Trump realizes he has already taken this game too far.
China has nothing to warn the US with. Rare earth metals is their latest ploy and it won't work. They get their ore from here in the US. The US has plenty of rare earth metals in storage and the only limit is that it is disgusting to refine but we can do it if needed. China is thinking Trump is in trouble here and won't push for what China really needs to do, and that's do an actual crack down on IP theft as well as stop manipulating their currency in order to screw every country they do business with. Both of those are required, and they tried to back out.
China has exactly ZERO leverage in this dispute, and they know it.
China does have leverage and part of it will be the boomerang effect.
They planned to spend a trillion dollars on Boeing aircraft. They could switch that business into the EU.
They planned to invest billions into natural gas in Alaska. That could see changes.
Even on rare earths, it will be more expensive to process than for China (as well as damaging for the environment).
All the while China is developing its domestic demand to provide it with more protection from external factors.
The accumulative effect on US business (many are already suffering lost Huawei business) will also affect the US economy.
Etc.
And to top everything off they claim to be ready to slug things out over a long period of time. Trump said the battle would be easy to win and fast.
How much time does he have before the markets (or voters) give him a wake up call?
...
If anything, the trade wars is one of the few issues that is universally supported by left, right, and center. Funny how that works even as Congress looks to Impeach the President.
...
Well, no...
That might be the story on Faux, but not in reality.
At this point even the farm belt is telling Trump that they want trade not welfare. And, as his lies and spin are increasingly exposed and as he doubles and triples down on his original threats, fewer and fewer are staying impartial and beginning to point out the stupidity of this Trumped up war.
GOP Senators continue to back Trump. They wouldn't if there was any concern about support in agriculture abandoning the party. Like I stated, farmers will suck it up.
I don't necessarily want Trump removed from office (President Pence?), but you do yourself no favors misrepresenting what is actually happening in U.S. Politics generally, and the Trade Wars in particular.
The chance of Republican senators not backing Trump for ANY reason is essentially nill.
Trump has been all but indicted on Obstruction of Justice of the investigation into his Russian Collusion, and they not only continue to back him -- but are obstructing any required follow-up investigations by congress in order to protect him.
At this point in the 70's Republicans were starting to count up the votes for impeachment and making plans for a post-Nixon WH
But that "25% tariff" would be imposed by the US, not China. Tariffs are a tax on imports. Apple's products are produced mostly in China's SEZs. China isn't taxing goods moving within in country with tariffs, but rather VAT. And the country is lower those taxes to boost its domestic economic activity.
Trump certainly might continue to raise his import taxes, which are paid for by the Americans who wear his made-in-China MAGA hats to show how patriotic they are. And he may continue to destroy overseas market opportunities for American farmers, and then bail them out with massive billions in state subsidies that will no doubt continue to prop up farming forever. ...... Most Americans are too cheap to buy locally. They went to Asia for their TVs, then cars, and now virtually everything. Trump likes to blame the trade imbalance on China, but you can't sell goods to a nation that's self sufficient. Rural red states already defied Obama's guidelines to stop buying from Huawai. Obama stopped Tmobile from building ta Huawei network. The red states went out and "MAGA" by buying cheap Chinese networking gear from Huawei, because they like nothing more than buying cheap shit from China. .....
...America already has installed a network that feeds China: Walmart.....
That's a lot of passive-aggressive, unnecessary snideness against Trump supporters. (For the record: I am not one).
Maybe your hand-wringing is true. Yet, somehow, the tariffs are not showing up in either domestic inflation or import prices -- why?
That aside, on a more substantive note, what's your solution to the trade and IP theft problem with China?
The solution? Impeach and remove Trump. Problem solved.
But then there is that sticky problem of the T-Mobile TapTap thingee that started all this nonsense. But wasn't that settled years ago?
On the other hand: Perhaps we should focusing on the Russian attacks on our past, current and future elections rather than a Trumped up trade and IP theft problem with China -- or is that the purpose of Trump's war on China: DIstract us from our real enemy while they help Trump get another 4 years?
China is smart and they’ll Play it smart. They know they’re dealing with a madman playing to his base.
But, they are taking this attack on their country and the private industry seriously and they are not going to back down. As they said today: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you”.
Hopefully Trump realizes he has already taken this game too far.
China has nothing to warn the US with. Rare earth metals is their latest ploy and it won't work. They get their ore from here in the US. The US has plenty of rare earth metals in storage and the only limit is that it is disgusting to refine but we can do it if needed. China is thinking Trump is in trouble here and won't push for what China really needs to do, and that's do an actual crack down on IP theft as well as stop manipulating their currency in order to screw every country they do business with. Both of those are required, and they tried to back out.
China has exactly ZERO leverage in this dispute, and they know it.
China does have leverage and part of it will be the boomerang effect.
They planned to spend a trillion dollars on Boeing aircraft. They could switch that business into the EU.
They planned to invest billions into natural gas in Alaska. That could see changes.
Even on rare earths, it will be more expensive to process than for China (as well as damaging for the environment).
All the while China is developing its domestic demand to provide it with more protection from external factors.
The accumulative effect on US business (many are already suffering lost Huawei business) will also affect the US economy.
Etc.
And to top everything off they claim to be ready to slug things out over a long period of time. Trump said the battle would be easy to win and fast.
How much time does he have before the markets (or voters) give him a wake up call?
If there was any impact from the "planned spend" on Boeing then it isn't an impact. Unless there are orders signed or contracts signed, which they couldn't get out of without penalty, then there is no real impact because actual money isn't taken back. Also, it isn't like Airbus would have planes just sitting around so if there were plans and Boeing was holding orders for China airlines then they will lose that spot and get at the back of the line for Airbus. What are they going to fill that gap with? Hogwash is all that report is.
China isn't going to stop investment anywhere. It's their move if they want this resolved, just go along with what they initially agreed to before trying to play hardball at the last second.
The market is doing just fine. There are daily blips but almost always recovered within a day or two. Look at this morning, for instance.
Airbus can fill Boeing's shoes without issue. We are talking about a period of around 25 years. That is a lot of lost business if it pans out that way but to lose it to a direct competitor would be a game changer for Boeing. On top of that, we are now seeing reports of China having halted soy bean orders completely. The farmers have warned that subsidies only cover lost business. What worries them is losing customers because once lost they are difficult to get back.
Just a couple of weeks ago the US sportswear industry wrote to Trump imploring him to end the trade conflict, assuring him that it could have a catastrophic impact on business.
It seems that the US isn't as resistant to the conflict as some people believe. Will Trump dole out subsidies to everyone?
And to top everything off, it is virtually universally accepted that China isn't paying the tariffs anyway, US consumers are.
Comments
Trump certainly might continue to raise his import taxes, which are paid for by the Americans who wear his made-in-China MAGA hats to show how patriotic they are. And he may continue to destroy overseas market opportunities for American farmers, and then bail them out with massive billions in state subsidies that will no doubt continue to prop up farming forever. Recall how central state-planned subsidized farming worked so well for Russia! But China isn't going to be taxing iPhones to prop up Huawei because that makes no sense.
China's interest in Huawei is mostly related to building networking equipment, the most significant thing the company does. It still barely makes any money. It is almost certainly losing money on handsets, particularly the higher end models that Android fans shout about. The goal there is just to stay in business long enough to drive out any competition, and then like Google it owns everything and can set prices as desired.
Most Americans are too cheap to buy locally. They went to Asia for their TVs, then cars, and now virtually everything. Trump likes to blame the trade imbalance on China, but you can't sell goods to a nation that's self sufficient. Rural red states already defied Obama's guidelines to stop buying from Huawai. Obama stopped Tmobile from building ta Huawei network. The red states went out and "MAGA" by buying cheap Chinese networking gear from Huawei, because they like nothing more than buying cheap shit from China.
America already has installed a network that feeds China: Walmart. All the MAGA hats line up to pay for their China's exports and then go home to watch Fox News tell them that China is tricking them into a trade deficit. Maybe stop eating $1 chickens and wearing $10 sweatpants paid for with your government farm subsidies to sit back and watch state run TV glorifying an Adderall grifter as the new Jesus Christ.
So maybe some recent hats have been made in the USA, but most of the merch is not. Of the 268 items for sale on the Trump store, 41 are made in the USA (that's 15%).
That's also pretty immaterial given that most of the MAGA hat wearers are not buying from the Trump store, they're getting them from China via Walmart, which is the point of the comment. Americans in red states have been poor since Reagan, and have been slavishly buying imports from big box retail and foreign companies ever since, including the flags they "patriotically" wave.
Trump's campaign, his merch, and his previous businesses from ties to construction projects have been staffed with undocumented workers and sourced from overseas. The problem isn't that nobody should move manufacturing to where labor is cheaper, it's that anyone who is campaigning on a platform of tariffs and 19 Century mercantilism and vilifying globalism shouldn't be such a phony liar, and shouldn't be promising that he's going to bring back coal mining and 1950s manufacturing to America, when it's clear, as Steve Jobs told Obama, that "those jobs aren't coming back."
No, Android in China is not Huawei's "own OS," and that's not what its planning to use.
Also, the issue isn't phones in Africa. It's "premium tier" Androids sold in Europe for around $300-400. Huawei has established a base of users there, but without Google's Android it's going to be really hard to sell against similar priced BKK or Samsung Androids. Nobody is buying them for the Huawei name, they're buying them for the cheap Android with relatively high specs.
Huawai can't sell phones with Chinese services on them because Chinese services don't support EU markets. Most people in Germany or the UK are not trying to watch Chinese movies and get maps for Beijing. Huawei was trying to enter the US, and it got knocked out of other western markets. That is a pretty big problem for it.
You're right that it's also a problem for Google. Android in China isn't helping Google already, and splintering the #2 Android maker into its own version or copycat instance of an ARK platform is not only "not good," but also opens up the potential for Samsung to launch non-Android or Fire-like Android forks of its own, which would turn Google Android from a big platform into a small insignificant platform next to the Samsung OS and Huawei OS, and perhaps LG webOS. That's already happened in TVs.
And if that occurs, there's no putting Android back under Google's control in any way, and you end up with a bunch of stagnant, licensees doing dumb things and destroying themselves just ilke Symbian.
But, to the MadHatter's of Trumplandia, reality is defined by Alternative Facts and Kansas is not real.
But, it's telling that, as Trump's arguments against China and Huawei fall apart under scrutiny, that his loyalists resort to personal attacks. It's pretty typical of the right. Standard procedure in fact.
It would be illogical to use something what is not compatible with android. That will make thinks even more difficult.
Thats what I was writing, they will have to retract from western markets for few years, until they develop software for western markets. But looking on where they make sales it should not be such a problem. From Western markets have about 30% of income. It's bad, but it's not destroying company.
Africa will not save them, but they can operate there easily and it's friendly market.
You are right it can create opportunity for Samsung to have their own fork of android, its just question if they want to invest lot of money into new software when their mobile profits are not great. But it will not create stagnant Android. Android is developing more like nature, rapidly building something and then destroying it when it's not used and you can do almost anything. You can say this process it's not efficient, it's wasteful or it's not stable, but it's never stagnant. Apple is more like garden which is carefully cared for, but on other side it has more limits what you can do.
"According to a wide variety of analysts who follow Apple" ... "It's mostly just bad news for Apple, because both the state and people of China are going to respond by shunning Apple's products"
This is literally impossible to be 'mostly just bad news for Apple' in the eyes of those analysts.
There is not even a point of comparison between Huawei and the rest of the players involved in this mess.
I have doubts about a 'wide variety of analysts that follow Apple' seeing things as less bad for Huawei than for Apple.
Which analysts have even come close to comparing the two and reaching that conclusion? I haven't seen one. I'd say that it is universally concluded that Huawei is in a worse situation - and by far!
Apple will probably take a hit in China but that will be just a pinch to its business when compared to the punch Trump is trying to land on Huawei.
No one can compare a company (Apple) seeing a contraction in sales in one country to another company (Huawei) which has had a huge chunk of it core suppliers cut off with no notice - worldwide.
Even if China retaliates against Apple directly, the situation would still not be comparable as China wouldn't be trying to put Apple out of business. Trump is trying to do that with Huawei and a senator has even gone on record with those exact words.
Which analysts have said Huawei's situation is just 'maybe somewhat bad' when compared to Apple's and claimed it to be 'mostly just bad?
"That's wrong, here's why"
What looks wrong is the premise of the article:
"According to a wide variety of analysts following Apple, the Trump Administration's trade war with China and its Entity Listing of Huawei is maybe somewhat bad for the largest Android producer in China--and perhaps even for Android, given that it has now lost its second largest licensee globally--but it's mostly just bad news for Apple, because both the state and people of China are going to respond by shunning Apple's products. That's wrong, here's why."
What is clear - today - is that Huawei and China have the most to lose economically, technologically and strategically. The US and Apple and the rest of the world will also lose.
Longer term, the US and its tech sector might rue this situation long after Trump has gone because we can all be sure that everyone and their mother will be accelerating their efforts in self dependency to avoid being put into the same situation as Huawei.
This process was already under way, but given the blatant abuse of power used by Trump against Huawei, the rest of the world has convinced itself that depending on US technology is not a situation they want to be in.
China has exactly ZERO leverage in this dispute, and they know it.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/trump-us-china-tariffs-trade-war
They planned to spend a trillion dollars on Boeing aircraft. They could switch that business into the EU.
They planned to invest billions into natural gas in Alaska. That could see changes.
Even on rare earths, it will be more expensive to process than for China (as well as damaging for the environment).
All the while China is developing its domestic demand to provide it with more protection from external factors.
The accumulative effect on US business (many are already suffering lost Huawei business) will also affect the US economy.
Etc.
And to top everything off they claim to be ready to slug things out over a long period of time. Trump said the battle would be easy to win and fast.
How much time does he have before the markets (or voters) give him a wake up call?
Trump isn't being hurt by the trade wars except in a few agricultural states, where there is funds to mitigate some of the losses. Even there, the voters are much more likely to suck it up on the trade wars than replace Republicans with Democrats, mostly due to social issues.
If anything, the trade wars is one of the few issues that is universally supported by left, right, and center. Funny how that works even as Congress looks to Impeach the President.
Your misreading of the political forces in the U.S., I will put down to wishful thinking.
As for the rare earths, Chinese industry is the biggest user of these for components that ship to the rest of the world. China is all bluster on rare earths. They wouldn't want to give up the value of those products to "punish" the U.S., and China is certainly wary about the West launching a worldwide effort to bring more rare earth production on line.
Meanwhile, the West is looking to set up alternate production areas in Malaysia and Indonesia.
A bonus link to an article on China Subsidies of Huawei;
https://www.afp.com/en/news/1272/huawei-key-beneficiary-china-subsidies-us-wants-ended-doc-1gs9er2#.XO94awoXDsI.twitter
"Outside China, the country's state policy banks have provided financing to boost Huawei's sales to the developing world -- at times leaving the state on the hook when risky loans go bad.
Huawei inked a $10 billion credit line with the China Development Bank (CDB) in 2004 to provide low-cost financing to customers buying its telecom gear. It was tripled to $30 billion in 2009.
China's demand for infrastructure, including communications and internet gear, is not as high as it used to be, said CDB President Zheng Zhijie, so "what can we do with the excess production capacity? We can only send it abroad".
"We may give you loans to buy Chinese equipment or materials, but there must be a Chinese element," Zheng told AFP of his bank's loans to help Chinese firms expand abroad.
Brazilian telecom firm Telemar Norte Leste obtained a $500 million CDB loan in 2009 with a two-year grace period on principal payments at a well-below-market interest rate to buy Huawei gear.
This type of loan is known as export credit and primarily regulated under an OECD arrangement incorporated into the WTO.
But China has refused to sign on or abide by its rules, said Kristen Hopewell, an expert at the University of Edinburgh, adding the credit line for Huawei could be in violation of those rules.
Since 2015 China has provided more funding each year to support its exports than the OECD's 36 member-nations combined, according to US Export-Import Bank data."
At this point even the farm belt is telling Trump that they want trade not welfare.
And, as his lies and spin are increasingly exposed and as he doubles and triples down on his original threats, fewer and fewer are staying impartial and beginning to point out the stupidity of this Trumped up war.
China isn't going to stop investment anywhere. It's their move if they want this resolved, just go along with what they initially agreed to before trying to play hardball at the last second.
The market is doing just fine. There are daily blips but almost always recovered within a day or two. Look at this morning, for instance.
GOP Senators continue to back Trump. They wouldn't if there was any concern about support in agriculture abandoning the party. Like I stated, farmers will suck it up.
I don't necessarily want Trump removed from office (President Pence?), but you do yourself no favors misrepresenting what is actually happening in U.S. Politics generally, and the Trade Wars in particular.
Maybe your hand-wringing is true. Yet, somehow, the tariffs are not showing up in either domestic inflation or import prices -- why?
That aside, on a more substantive note, what's your solution to the trade and IP theft problem with China?
All they have to do is declare a National Security Emergency and declare Boeing a Security Risk.
Easy!
... We do it all the time now...
Trump has been all but indicted on Obstruction of Justice of the investigation into his Russian Collusion, and they not only continue to back him -- but are obstructing any required follow-up investigations by congress in order to protect him.
At this point in the 70's Republicans were starting to count up the votes for impeachment and making plans for a post-Nixon WH
The solution?
Impeach and remove Trump.
Problem solved.
But then there is that sticky problem of the T-Mobile TapTap thingee that started all this nonsense. But wasn't that settled years ago?
On the other hand:
Perhaps we should focusing on the Russian attacks on our past, current and future elections rather than a Trumped up trade and IP theft problem with China -- or is that the purpose of Trump's war on China: DIstract us from our real enemy while they help Trump get another 4 years?
ROTFLMAO. Now I see why you're such a fan of communist dictatorships. It explains a lot of your posts.
Just a couple of weeks ago the US sportswear industry wrote to Trump imploring him to end the trade conflict, assuring him that it could have a catastrophic impact on business.
It seems that the US isn't as resistant to the conflict as some people believe. Will Trump dole out subsidies to everyone?
And to top everything off, it is virtually universally accepted that China isn't paying the tariffs anyway, US consumers are.