Mizuho analysts suggest 2019 iPhones will 'lack novelty' for consumers

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 63
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,622member
    avon b7 said:
    I place the 2018 models on an 'S' cycle and therefore would hope for a major renovation of the 2019 devices.

    I'm sure camera versatility will lead to more sales, though.

    I find it difficult to imagine Apple going through another iterative upgrade with competitors pushing so hard for so long and with them still using 5W chargers etc.

    If I had to go out on a limb I'd go for improvements to 3D sensing and associated software (including real time 3D modelling). Much improved battery tech (at every stage). Far more camera versatility. Better AI. More attractive shell finishes.

    It might not be game changing, as all of that is already available on Android flagships, but it should help to sell more iPhones - if they also adjust pricing down.

    I definitely expect the handsets to be more newsworthy than last year's which were largely overshadowed by the Series 4 Apple Watch.
    Apple is on a 3 year design cycle.  So anything major by way of new design will most likely come Fall 2020.  Apple kept the last design the same for 4 years (6 / 6S / 7 / 8)
    I think that could change, just as when we saw the introduction of a third model and widening of the product spread. 

    Three years of flat sales, a profit warning, then a contraction might be the basis of change. My only reservation is if they decide on an iterative upgrade and instead put the focus on price adjustments.
    chemengin1
  • Reply 22 of 63
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member
    M68000 said:
    Why does there “need” to be new phone models every year now?  Not just from Apple but others.  Seems like a bit of a frantic pace.

    Because this is Apples pace.

    People used to call Apple users crazy for allowing it, now all the iKnockoffs are doing it.

    These are Apple's rules not a trend or anything else.
    I'd actually say that Apple has been pretty conservative in their upgrade pace compared to everybody else.

    Apple's phones are on a yearly schedule and they've been keeping that pace since the beginning.

    I remember when everybody else was releasing a ton of phones per year. It seemed like there was a new Android phone almost weekly. How many models did the other companies release in a single year? Samsung was just flinging shit at the wall, releasing crazy many models.

    Now some of the others companies don't just rip off Apple's designs etc., they've also copied their upgrade schedule.

    What a bunch of chimpanzees. Monkey see, monkey do.


    StrangeDayspscooter63
  • Reply 23 of 63
    FolioFolio Posts: 698member
    Cameras continue to be top reasons to upgrade. WWDC's preview of smart photo layout, sorting, etc will likely mean more people start paying $10/month for bigger iCloud accounts. Even if you sit out longer between phones, there's more ways to PayApple. (Oddly, perhaps, I'm happy to say.)
    StrangeDays
  • Reply 24 of 63
    davendaven Posts: 696member
    The only 'novel' phone of the past few years was Samsung's folding phone and we all know hat that went. I buy a new phone when I need a new phone, not for some novelty. My first iPhone was a 5s.  Current phone is an Xs Max. The 5s already did everything I wanted. Anything else is fluff.
    edited June 2019 StrangeDays
  • Reply 25 of 63
    AppleExposedAppleExposed Posts: 1,805unconfirmed, member
    apple ][ said:
    M68000 said:
    Why does there “need” to be new phone models every year now?  Not just from Apple but others.  Seems like a bit of a frantic pace.

    Because this is Apples pace.

    People used to call Apple users crazy for allowing it, now all the iKnockoffs are doing it.

    These are Apple's rules not a trend or anything else.
    I'd actually say that Apple has been pretty conservative in their upgrade pace compared to everybody else.

    Apple's phones are on a yearly schedule and they've been keeping that pace since the beginning.

    I remember when everybody else was releasing a ton of phones per year. It seemed like there was a new Android phone almost weekly. How many models did the other companies release in a single year? Samsung was just flinging shit at the wall, releasing crazy many models.

    Now some of the others companies don't just rip off Apple's designs etc., they've also copied their upgrade schedule.

    What a bunch of chimpanzees. Monkey see, monkey do.



    I'm talking over a decade ago when iPods were being updated yearly. People criticized Apple for outdating our purchases so fast.

    Now that everyone does it and in some cases throw crap at the wall every month... not a peep.
    pscooter63
  • Reply 26 of 63
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 12,834member
    avon b7 said:
    I find it difficult to imagine Apple going through another iterative upgrade
    Oops, somebody again showing they don’t understand how Apple rolls. Gruber wrote about this almost a decade ago. Read up:

    https://www.macworld.com/article/1151235/macs/apple-rolls.html

    ...iterative product development is the name of the game. It’s how we got from the original iPhone/Mac/Watch/whatever to the current versions, or iterations
    edited June 2019 docno42
  • Reply 27 of 63
    racerhomie3racerhomie3 Posts: 1,264member
    Apple is getting off the iPhone drug. That’s excellent for long term growth.Services,  Watch ,iPods, iPads & accessories should grow.
  • Reply 28 of 63
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,622member
    avon b7 said:
    I find it difficult to imagine Apple going through another iterative upgrade
    Oops, somebody again showing they don’t understand how Apple rolls. Gruber wrote about this almost a decade ago. Read up:

    https://www.macworld.com/article/1151235/macs/apple-rolls.html

    ...iterative product development is the name of the game. It’s how we got from the original iPhone/Mac/Watch/whatever to the current versions, or iterations
    Times change. 

    Apple will roll according to the times.

    Apple's Mac business is bigger than ever but they left both the Mini and the Mac Pro to rot for years. iPad Mini was in a similar spot. They sold the same iMac (exactly the same) two Christmas seasons straight! Services are far more important now than before. Apple is now involved in major content creation efforts.

    Go back 10 years from any of those points and tell me you saw them coming. You can't because you didn't see them coming. No one - not even Apple - saw them coming.

    There is literally no point whatsoever in claiming you know how Apple works because someone claimed it to be so a decade ago.

    Utterly pointless.
    edited June 2019 muthuk_vanalingamgatorguychemengin1
  • Reply 29 of 63
    rolsrols Posts: 68member
    M68000 said:
    Why does there “need” to be new phone models every year now?  Not just from Apple but others.  Seems like a bit of a frantic pace.
    But when Apple started making phones most other manufacturers were releasing new models every other month. Apple was criticised then for only coming out with one model a year, all the analysts were frothy predicting their failure because nobody would wait a whole year for a new model when <insert name of failed phone manufacturer here> was coming out with something fresh constantly. 

    Looks like Apple got the pace about right after all. 

    Actually, like their other products, Apple really comes out with a new model every 3 or 4 years, in the interim they just spec tweak and upgrade as the technology becomes available. The last 'new' model was the X, guess we'll see the next 'new' model in 2020 or 2021. 
    tmaycaladanian
  • Reply 30 of 63
    lewchenkolewchenko Posts: 122member
    An erosion of market share will start to lead to less services growth than forecast. That’s why market share is important .. it drives the whole ecosystem.  

    People need something to get excited about to convince them a $1000++ phone is worth the upgrade. 

    Are multiple cameras plus other minor tweaks enough ? Depends on the device you are upgrading from I guess plus your willingness to part with quite a lot of money. (More of a factor I think)

    I’d guess , in the majority of possible upgraders, anyone with a 6S or possibly  a 7 series or prior might be tempted. Anyone with an 8,X,XS series is probably well served already with relatively fewer people willing to consider shelling out the $$$.  

    I still see see so many people with a 5,5S, SE series shape iPhone which is remarkable. Apple are leaving money on the table without an SE replacement. 

    I often ask the wife for her “populist” opinion and she is still happy with her 7 despite battery woes. I will obviously stick with the XS I have for another year. 
    AppleExposed
  • Reply 31 of 63
    lewchenkolewchenko Posts: 122member
    Duplicate post - removed 
    edited June 2019
  • Reply 32 of 63
    iOS_Guy80iOS_Guy80 Posts: 809member
    davgreg said:
    Smart phones are now a mature market and technology so to expect huge jumps from generation to generation is not realistic.

    The innovation I would like to see is a user accessible battery and a lower selling price. I do not play games on my phone and really do not care about Augmented Reality.

    I use my iPad Pro far more than my iPhone and my Macs more than either. A Mac a touchpad and a 32“ display beats any iOS device.
    Define “beats.” There is nothing on a Mac that I cannot do on the latest iPad 12.9”. With iPadiOS it will be able to handle everything and more of my computing and online use.

  • Reply 33 of 63
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,310member
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    I find it difficult to imagine Apple going through another iterative upgrade
    Oops, somebody again showing they don’t understand how Apple rolls. Gruber wrote about this almost a decade ago. Read up:

    https://www.macworld.com/article/1151235/macs/apple-rolls.html

    ...iterative product development is the name of the game. It’s how we got from the original iPhone/Mac/Watch/whatever to the current versions, or iterations
    Times change. 

    Apple will roll according to the times.

    Apple's Mac business is bigger than ever but they left both the Mini and the Mac Pro to rot for years. iPad Mini was in a similar spot. They sold the same iMac (exactly the same) two Christmas seasons straight! Services are far more important now than before. Apple is now involved in major content creation efforts.

    Go back 10 years from any of those points and tell me you saw them coming. You can't because you didn't see them coming. No one - not even Apple - saw them coming.

    There is literally no point whatsoever in claiming you know how Apple works because someone claimed it to be so a decade ago.

    Utterly pointless.
    So, you disagree that the smartphone market has been in iteration since the original iPhone? I see no evidence otherwise.

    I can state unequivocally that there hasn't been to date, nor will there be. any disruptive smartphones in the future,. At best, the closest thing to s disruption is foldable screens, and even that, is an iteration leading to a new, and niche, product category. The acknowledged disruption to the smartphone is the wearable.

    Now, it is true that Apple kept some of the Mac product line in stasis for a number of years, arguably due to the fact that Intel's roadmap turned out to have a three year delay. That Apple didn't allocate engineering resources to update with an essentially limited consumer benefit is notable in the PC industry, but isn't necessarily indication of much else.
    edited June 2019 pscooter63
  • Reply 34 of 63
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,557member
    Who the hell are Mizuho Securities and what does their analysis have to do with anything?
    pscooter63
  • Reply 35 of 63
    LordeHawkLordeHawk Posts: 168member
    wood1208 said:
    Most years, phones have evolutionary upgrades(which is still good) so looking for exceptional novelty features in every year phones is asking for disappointment. Moreover novelty or surprises in upcoming phone release is mostly gone as true,untrue,unfounded rumors lower the anticipation.
    You’re so right, it’s sad that people have no realistic appreciation or expectation with new hardware.  Apple mostly developed everything for their success and gets lambasted for not changing the exterior design.  Android (java runtime environments) gets slapped on phones with minimal investment and integration.

    The simple truth is that Apple is an a class of its own and only competing with themselves and market saturation.  The next evolutionary step requires more investment, complexity and integration than ever before.  Apple has played the long game at preparing for the future, while maximizing profits and customer trust.

    I upgrade ever year to support Apple and their investment in the future.  Many people wait for a few years, but with their massive user base, each generation brings people to the register.
    tmay
  • Reply 36 of 63
    LordeHawkLordeHawk Posts: 168member
    tap5a said:
    Why remove the still new 3D/force touch?
    My guess is in 2020 or 2021 Apple introduces model without notch using behind the screen front facing camera technology and they know already they can't get it working with screens have force touch. Also I'm sure Apple has tons of data it's one the less used features. Just guessing.
    You’re actually close, although it might not disappear on the 2019 phone.  There’s other tech that provide this input and without a mouse’s extra buttons, phones need any extra inputs they can get.  Apple appears to be moving into the hover input, as this also prepares consumers for future AR interfaces that provide no direct contact.

    When Apple launches their AR glasses I would expect the iPhones to get a micro mirror array, projecting onto the back of your retinas when your looking at your phone screen.  Not as an AR glasses replacement, but quick actions and extra screen real estate when using the phone for non-AR.  It’s the most practical application of  all their AR investment to enhance the phone.  Not everyone wants the glasses and historically Apple shares their tech across platforms.
    The processors in new iPhones are essentially desktop class in benchmark testing (obviously not real world use), the limiting factor is screen real estate and form.  As the mobile industry pivots to an AR centric approach, phones will come along for the ride with features that allow extra augmented screens, widgets, and advanced tools/actions.  Eventually this tech will migrate to the Apple Watch, since you lift it close enough to your face when you get a notification.  Someone texts you a picture, it opens large enough to actually see to the side of your watch and watch faces could have virtual complications.  Without a camera on the back it wouldn’t be AR, but by the time this tech is on the watch, it will be very hard to return to screen size as a visually limiting factor.  I’m afraid Plato called this first, Allegory of the Cave isn’t just knowledge.

  • Reply 37 of 63

    If 'novelty' is paying almost twice the price of an iPhone for a phone with a foldable screen that stops working after 1 day of use, then I'm happy with iterative changes.

    As is always the case, in the eyes of the analysts, "There's nothing different about the new iPhone, except for all the new changes".

    tmayAppleExposedcaladanian
  • Reply 38 of 63
    entropysentropys Posts: 4,152member
    urahara said:
    “Re-capturing market share.”
    How much market share did iPhone lose?
    Probably nothing. It seems if Apple sales did decline, so did everyone elses. So a wash really.
    From the analysts’ perspective though, they must get up every day and thank Tim Cook for no longer reporting iPhone sales, as who to say they are wrong no matter what they say?

    I expect this one to be iterative, with the big change happening when the 5G iPhone is ready.
    edited June 2019
  • Reply 39 of 63
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,310member
    Interesting article about the "disruption" in the workplace due ubiquitous use of AirPods:

    https://digiday.com/marketing/totally-different-phenomenon-airpods-changing-agency-office-life/

    "Headphones are a fact of life inside open plan offices, but Airpods have quickly become a staple of life at ad agency life, with staffers walking around all day with the signature little pods in their ears. For those who remember when people used phones to make voice calls, this is a somewhat disconcerting development in a business that theoretically thrives on collaboration.

    “I know they’re not listening to music, or anything, but it’s still disconcerting to see them with something in their ears while we’re all discussing something,” said one agency CEO, who said he once had a meeting with someone wearing Airpods. “It’s like, ‘what?’”


  • Reply 40 of 63
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,622member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    I find it difficult to imagine Apple going through another iterative upgrade
    Oops, somebody again showing they don’t understand how Apple rolls. Gruber wrote about this almost a decade ago. Read up:

    https://www.macworld.com/article/1151235/macs/apple-rolls.html

    ...iterative product development is the name of the game. It’s how we got from the original iPhone/Mac/Watch/whatever to the current versions, or iterations
    Times change. 

    Apple will roll according to the times.

    Apple's Mac business is bigger than ever but they left both the Mini and the Mac Pro to rot for years. iPad Mini was in a similar spot. They sold the same iMac (exactly the same) two Christmas seasons straight! Services are far more important now than before. Apple is now involved in major content creation efforts.

    Go back 10 years from any of those points and tell me you saw them coming. You can't because you didn't see them coming. No one - not even Apple - saw them coming.

    There is literally no point whatsoever in claiming you know how Apple works because someone claimed it to be so a decade ago.

    Utterly pointless.
    So, you disagree that the smartphone market has been in iteration since the original iPhone? I see no evidence otherwise.

    I can state unequivocally that there hasn't been to date, nor will there be. any disruptive smartphones in the future,. At best, the closest thing to s disruption is foldable screens, and even that, is an iteration leading to a new, and niche, product category. The acknowledged disruption to the smartphone is the wearable.

    Now, it is true that Apple kept some of the Mac product line in stasis for a number of years, arguably due to the fact that Intel's roadmap turned out to have a three year delay. That Apple didn't allocate engineering resources to update with an essentially limited consumer benefit is notable in the PC industry, but isn't necessarily indication of much else.
    Iterative upgrade or not (my definition of iterative might not match other people's) is missing the point.

    The point is knowing how 'Apple rolls'. Especially if you try to support your point with a decade old article from ONE person.

    The point was that no one knows how Apple will roll even two years from now.

    Apple reacts to market forces (or should do) but those forces themselves are subject to abrupt swings.

    That means it is pointless to quote a ten year old as knowing how Apple rolls.

    I can guarantee you that if Apple could go back in time, today, many of us would be watching 'Apple Netflix'.


    edited June 2019 muthuk_vanalingamchemengin1
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