Apple to launch three OLED iPhones with 5G alongside budget model in 2020, analyst predict...
As the 2019 iPhone rumor season heats up, JP Morgan is already looking ahead to 2020 and predicts Apple to launch three OLED handsets with speedy 5G connectivity alongside a less expensive model next fall.
A research note published Monday by analyst Samik Chatterjee largely backs up previous analyst predictions and scuttlebutt out of Apple's supply chain, but adds a new low-cost model into the mix for 2020.
As reported by CNBC, Chatterjee expects Apple to launch a trio of high-end iPhones with 5G baseband modems and 5.4-, 6.1- and 6.7-inch OLED screens. The strategy would be a departure from the current lineup, which boasts two top-tier OLED variants in iPhone XS and XS, and a cheaper LCD model in iPhone XR.
Beyond 5G and OLED, at least two of the top iPhones will adopt "world facing," or rear-facing, time of flight (TOF) 3D sensor technology for augmented reality and virtual reality applications, the note said.
Apple has long been rumored to integrate TOF into its popular smartphone as a means to map the world around a user.
In 2017, prior to the unveiling of TrueDepth on iPhone X, a report claimed Apple was investigating a rear-facing, laser-based 3D sensor for AR applications and faster, more accurate camera autofocus operation. More recently, noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo last September said Apple was unlikely to turn to TOF in 2019, and would instead continue to rely on multi-lens cameras seen in iPhone XS and XR.
Reports of Apple's interest in the technology resurfaced last December when Sony announced plans to start production of TOF chips this summer to meet anticipated demand from "several" smartphone makers.
Apple's current TrueDepth camera assembly uses a single vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) to project structured infrared light -- a grid of dots -- onto a user's face. Deviations and distortions in the grid are measured to generate a 3D map that is applied to user authentication algorithms.
TOF systems also create depth maps, but instead of evaluating structured light, the arrays measure the time it takes pulses of light to travel to and from a target surface. The technology can operate at longer distances and produce better data than existing solutions like TrueDepth.
As for 5G, Kuo in June reported Apple plans to bake the wireless technology into two iPhone models next year -- 5.4- and 6.7-inch OLED variants -- while a 6.1-inch OLED model will retain LTE connectivity. Like Chatterjee, Kuo also believes the future handsets will support mmWave frequencies that promise ultra-fast transfer speeds.
JP Morgan's report diverges from the predictions of Kuo by claiming all three OLED models will net 5G compatibility.
Finally, Chatterjee says Apple is looking to chase "a much more value' category than it has been used to with its recent launches." What, exactly, this means is up for debate, but the report speculates the company could launch a fourth iPhone model in the same vein as 2017's iPhone 8, sans OLED display or 5G modem.
The upgrades should be enough to help Apple sell an estimated 195 million iPhones in 2020, Chatterjee said. As a result, JP Morgan raised its Apple stock price target $6 to $239.
A research note published Monday by analyst Samik Chatterjee largely backs up previous analyst predictions and scuttlebutt out of Apple's supply chain, but adds a new low-cost model into the mix for 2020.
As reported by CNBC, Chatterjee expects Apple to launch a trio of high-end iPhones with 5G baseband modems and 5.4-, 6.1- and 6.7-inch OLED screens. The strategy would be a departure from the current lineup, which boasts two top-tier OLED variants in iPhone XS and XS, and a cheaper LCD model in iPhone XR.
Beyond 5G and OLED, at least two of the top iPhones will adopt "world facing," or rear-facing, time of flight (TOF) 3D sensor technology for augmented reality and virtual reality applications, the note said.
Apple has long been rumored to integrate TOF into its popular smartphone as a means to map the world around a user.
In 2017, prior to the unveiling of TrueDepth on iPhone X, a report claimed Apple was investigating a rear-facing, laser-based 3D sensor for AR applications and faster, more accurate camera autofocus operation. More recently, noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo last September said Apple was unlikely to turn to TOF in 2019, and would instead continue to rely on multi-lens cameras seen in iPhone XS and XR.
Reports of Apple's interest in the technology resurfaced last December when Sony announced plans to start production of TOF chips this summer to meet anticipated demand from "several" smartphone makers.
Apple's current TrueDepth camera assembly uses a single vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) to project structured infrared light -- a grid of dots -- onto a user's face. Deviations and distortions in the grid are measured to generate a 3D map that is applied to user authentication algorithms.
TOF systems also create depth maps, but instead of evaluating structured light, the arrays measure the time it takes pulses of light to travel to and from a target surface. The technology can operate at longer distances and produce better data than existing solutions like TrueDepth.
As for 5G, Kuo in June reported Apple plans to bake the wireless technology into two iPhone models next year -- 5.4- and 6.7-inch OLED variants -- while a 6.1-inch OLED model will retain LTE connectivity. Like Chatterjee, Kuo also believes the future handsets will support mmWave frequencies that promise ultra-fast transfer speeds.
JP Morgan's report diverges from the predictions of Kuo by claiming all three OLED models will net 5G compatibility.
Finally, Chatterjee says Apple is looking to chase "a much more value' category than it has been used to with its recent launches." What, exactly, this means is up for debate, but the report speculates the company could launch a fourth iPhone model in the same vein as 2017's iPhone 8, sans OLED display or 5G modem.
The upgrades should be enough to help Apple sell an estimated 195 million iPhones in 2020, Chatterjee said. As a result, JP Morgan raised its Apple stock price target $6 to $239.
Comments
Simplifies the lineup and prices.
I can see them doing one or one or two models with 5G in order to make sure that people who want it can get it. (Realistically LTE is more than fast enough for me.)
I think Apple realizes that having a simple product line is better than having an overly complex one.
Faced with stalling sales, in 2017 Apple added a third model to the lineup while offering a far greater spread (albeit of old phones).
I explained back then why this, IMO, was the best course of action. Apple had a few options open to it and that was the simplest of them all.
A year later, sales were still flat (but probably better than they would have been under the old iPhone business model).
Given this years profit warning, it is possible that they have decided to replace older hardware with new but budget hardware.
It is far easier to sell new hardware than old hardware and allows them to keep designs 'fresh'.
One of the big problems of 2018 (well, most of it) was that everyone was using notches to maximise screen space. During that year Apple had just one and it was the most expensive phone in its history. Everything else was dated in design or both old and dated. That is a hard sell.
Competition was also offering far more technology for lower prices with stunning design and build quality.
If this rumour proves to be true it will make a lot of sense. Perhaps of equal importance would be the release cycle. Relasing an A12 (for example) powered 'budget' phone out of the usual release window would be a very wise move. Around MWC would be perfect.
It would give Apple a media presence throughout the world's premier mobile event and take some attention away from bigger players releasing their big guns (which Apple wouldn't be competing with anyway).
Multimode 5G modems eliminate the need for a separate 4G modem.
Also, Apple (and everyone else) will be using a subsequent generation which will be more power efficient. Bigger battery capacities will still probably be the norm though because of other 5G aspects.
I think we’re on the 2nd generation of 5G modems now. Historically it’s taken 2-3 generations for the performance and power consumption to be optimized. Hard to say if the current generation has reached that point or not. I’d be willing to bet that the next generation of chips would still give significant gains, though.
@1983 - I agree with you. The one potential benefit I could see from 5G is that it utilizes spectrum differently. THere is a high frequency (mm wavelength) component that, according to the cellular execs will likely never be available outside of densely populated metropolitan areas, but my understanding is that there are also changes in how it uses the current frequencies, which could give benefits to the rest of us.
The other argument is that even if you are only getting 50% of the potential of 4G, 50% of the potential of 5G would still be an improvement. All this remains to be seen, however, so I’m not holding my breath, and I’m definitely no stressing about whether my phone has a 5G chip or not.
When I first saw the XR size my first thought was "why"? It also confused people at retail who thought XR was the XS' bigger brother because of screen size.
Maybe because iPhone 5/5s/SE are old models now? I'm upgrading to a bigger iPhone from SE but if a new SE size existed I'd go for that. And I believe an SE sized model can be priced much cheaper because the screen is much smaller. Heck, Apple can be even more daring and release an SE SCREEN-sized model.
But importantly, an X-type SE-sized iPhone would be priced at $849-899 as you rightly point out. Sure, some price-insensitive SE diehards would pay that, but I’d guess it would sell under 1% of unit volume. I can’t imagine Apple selling even 2 million of such a phone.
The 2020 5.42” model will be about the same width as the 4.7” 6/7/8, while being about 1/4” shorter in height. That’s about as small an X-style iPhone as I think we’ll ever see.