Bearish Apple analyst continues trend of bashing iPhone sales

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 52
    sirozha said:
    Explain to me how the iPhone 8 is fundamentally different from iPhone 7 that those with the iPhone 7 must upgrade this year. 

    I have an iPhone 7 and am not planning to upgrade. 
    The iPhone 8 is two years old - and one year newer than the iPhone 7; how is that relevant?

    But, since you asked, the iPhone 8 Plus is the last model with TouchID with a much faster CPU and has 3GB of RAM. This likely means a couple years more supported life compared to the 7. If you like to keep your phones for a long time and want TouchID, it is a reasonable upgrade unless a TouchID larger SE is released in the spring. 
  • Reply 22 of 52
    doggone said:
    Kuyangkoh said:
    Separately, CNBC reports:
    "People aren’t as interested in the iPhone 11 because they’re waiting for a 5G model, Piper Jaffray survey say"

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/23/apple-customers-hold-out-for-5g-despite-lower-prices-on-iphone-survey.html

    That makes sense to me -- better to wait if you can because the arguments for not waiting are pretty weak - particularly now that iPhones tend to have 4-6 year life cycle:


    5G?? Where? I upgrade every year because i can afford it....5G or not....
    If you are on the Apple upgrade program, it is the same monthly price whether you upgrade every year or wait 2 years to get to keep the phone.  I have so many iPhones in my drawer now that I see no point waiting for 2 years.  Selling on Gazelle will not bring that much after 2 years ($200 for a phone in fair condition).
    5G is not widely available and the modems are battery hogs.  Apple is smart to wait for a year when full coverage is available and the chips have been optimized.  
    That’s ridiculous. You can sell your iPhone on eBay and net $300 for a two-year-old phone easily. The fact that you are stacking your iPhones in your drawer for years is your own laziness. 
    randominternetperson
  • Reply 23 of 52

    sirozha said:
    Explain to me how the iPhone 8 is fundamentally different from iPhone 7 that those with the iPhone 7 must upgrade this year. 

    I have an iPhone 7 and am not planning to upgrade. 
    If you read the reviews from 2 years ago, they generally didn't recommend that 7 owners upgrade to the 8.  So why would that be any different two years later?

    You might want to consider some flavor of 11 however.  Or if you're happy with your 3-year-old iPhone 7, that's fine too.  Congratulations on a smart purchase.
    I wasn’t referring to upgrading from iPhone 7 to iPhone 8. I was referring to an earlier post saying that anyone with the iPhone 7 and earlier should be upgrading this year. Maybe they thought so because iPhone 8 is still being sold as new by Apple. 

    If I were to upgrade, I would buy iPhone 8, though, as it’s $500 for the new 256 GB model, which is $350 less than it was 2 years ago, when it was first released. All in all, I’m not interested at all anymore in the iPhones. I will use mine as long as it lasts, and when
    it dies, I will buy a two-year-old model heavily discounted by Apple. I won’t be buying current year’s iPhones ever again. 
  • Reply 24 of 52
    Apple was far more exciting when it delivered products that its customers pined for, champing at the bits to update the latest hardware and software revisions with a sprinkling of services thrown in (that usually petered out over time). Apple is just another behemoth corporation these days. Boring. In fact, worse than boring, it's making changes in the OS for example that will stop me from even upgrading any longer. I don't care for walled gardens that a vendor can lock anytime at their whim. That is by definition the very opposite of personal computing. Shame on Apple. It once defined the very essence of personal computing.
  • Reply 25 of 52
    Zhang used to provide a modicum of nuanced analysis; now it's only bearish tripe. Perhaps I'm not only one who suspects Huawei has him in its payroll?
  • Reply 26 of 52
    I'm not running out to buy a new iPhone 11 <insert version here/>.  I am quite impressed with the technology.  I've got an Xs Max, and it is good enough for me.  I'm waiting on 2021, barring an unforeseen circumstance.  The iPhone cameras are quite good.  the battery improvements that I have read about are quite good.  I suspect sales to be good, not stellar, but very good.  I'd recommend that people several generations back look to upgrade, like 6s and earlier.  Gone are the days when we "have to" upgrade every year.
  • Reply 27 of 52
    sirozha said:
    Explain to me how the iPhone 8 is fundamentally different from iPhone 7 that those with the iPhone 7 must upgrade this year. 

    I have an iPhone 7 and am not planning to upgrade. 
    If you read the reviews from 2 years ago, they generally didn't recommend that 7 owners upgrade to the 8.  So why would that be any different two years later?

    You might want to consider some flavor of 11 however.  Or if you're happy with your 3-year-old iPhone 7, that's fine too.  Congratulations on a smart purchase.
    For myself:   I just got my grandson's handmedown 7 when I got him an Xr.   I am perfectly content with the 7:  Not only does it run quite well but it is the perfect size for me -- to get this size in a new phone I'd have to invest several hundred additional dollars in a pro grade model (11-Pro).

    I look forward both to Apple marketing a smaller, consumer priced phone, but also one with 5G to future proof it.  But, fortunately, I am happy enough with the 7 so I can out-wait Apple's foot dragging.
  • Reply 28 of 52
    Same old story. Apple is doomed yet again...lol. Meanwhile I will enjoy my new iPhone 11 Pro whenever Apple can get it to me. I am not worried about 5G at the moment. Seems it still has a way to go before it becomes mainstream everywhere.
  • Reply 29 of 52
    Piper Jaffray just published a very similar study about a low demand for the iPhone 11/11 Pro. It's almost verbatim what this article says. 

    Apple is not doomed. However, people are losing interest in the iPhone. I know I have lost any interest in throwing thousands of dollars Apple's way to get a current iPhone model. 

    The only device I'm really interested in is the one that doesn't exist. I would absolutely dig a hybrid macPad device that can run iPadOS when undocked and macOS when docked in a keyboard/trackpad combo. This would be innovative and amazing from my perspective. Just cranking out iterative improvements in the iPhone or the iPad from one year to the next is boring to me. I am not interested at all, as all of these iPhones pretty much can do the same thing. I misplaced my iPad about a year ago, and I haven't had one time that I needed it. It's somewhere in my house with a dead battery, and I am not even interested in trying to find it. This proves to me that I don't need an iPad, so there's no reason for me to go and get a new one. 
    edited September 2019
  • Reply 30 of 52
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,355member
    Imagine how much money you would have lost, and potential gains that would be in the toiler, if you actually listened to this fuckwit? And yet, he gets paid a shitload of money in order to publicize his "views", while I could do a better job of predicting Apple's stock price. What a useless asshole.
    mdriftmeyer
  • Reply 31 of 52
    Financial analysts with useful understanding of the tech market - much less "high tech" - are about as scarce as an American politician who's made it past the 19th Century much less the 20th.
  • Reply 32 of 52
    slurpy said:
    Imagine how much money you would have lost, and potential gains that would be in the toiler, if you actually listened to this fuckwit? And yet, he gets paid a shitload of money in order to publicize his "views", while I could do a better job of predicting Apple's stock price. What a useless asshole.
    Those who rode the market went from $232 to $147 to $224 in less than a year and made nothing in a year on AAPL. Those who sold last fall and bought last winter made a lot of money. 

    On October 6, 2018, AAPL price of $150 seemed impossible. On December 24, 2018, AAPL cost $147.  
    edited September 2019
  • Reply 33 of 52
    Zhang's notes are well known for presenting one of the most pessimistic views of Apple out of major analysts, and has generally been that way for the last few years.

    On the understanding that even a stopped clock is right twice a day, how is Zhang still employed after such a long track record of failed prediction? Are they waiting for a fall years from now and then will say "We told you so"?

  • Reply 34 of 52
    "People aren’t as interested in the iPhone 11 because they’re waiting for a 5G model, Piper Jaffray survey say"

    That's a lie. No one cares about 5G. Apple users are waiting for a notch-free design. It's as simple as that. 
  • Reply 35 of 52
    doctwelve said:
    Apple dividends are too high and their stock price too low. Cut dividends completely so that stock price was the only way to make more money and let's see what these analysts have to say about Apple. 
    STFU. The Dividend is actually too low for it's valuation and leverage over the industry. It's a massive growth stock with a weak dividend right now.
  • Reply 36 of 52

    sirozha said:
    Explain to me how the iPhone 8 is fundamentally different from iPhone 7 that those with the iPhone 7 must upgrade this year. 

    I have an iPhone 7 and am not planning to upgrade. 
    If you read the reviews from 2 years ago, they generally didn't recommend that 7 owners upgrade to the 8.  So why would that be any different two years later?

    You might want to consider some flavor of 11 however.  Or if you're happy with your 3-year-old iPhone 7, that's fine too.  Congratulations on a smart purchase.

    I too have a 7 Plus and I'm thinking about getting the 11. It really is beautiful. 
  • Reply 37 of 52
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 6,339member
    It's too early to make meaningful claims either way.

    This lineup is a lot better than last year's and prices from the plain 11 down are pretty decent (at least in the U.S). On the other hand, the lack of 5G will definitely make some people sit this refresh out.

    There is always pent up demand at this of year anyway but trying to make anything of a few days sales is premature. Independently sales being good or bad or simply ok.

    GeorgeBMacmuthuk_vanalingamFileMakerFeller
  • Reply 38 of 52
    avon b7 said:
    It's too early to make meaningful claims either way.

    This lineup is a lot better than last year's and prices from the plain 11 down are pretty decent (at least in the U.S). On the other hand, the lack of 5G will definitely make some people sit this refresh out.

    There is always pent up demand at this of year anyway but trying to make anything of a few days sales is premature. Independently sales being good or bad or simply ok.

    Yeh, for most people an iPhone 7 works pretty much as well and does as much as an iPhone 11:   Snapshots, Facebook, email, messages, etc....

    But 5G will become increasingly important over the life any phone bought today.  It will be interesting to see if Apple holds off until September to release one -- they just paid Qualcomm millions to get the modem.  I'm surprised it wasn't in this 11 series batch of phones
  • Reply 39 of 52
    AppleExposedAppleExposed Posts: 1,805unconfirmed, member
    These are the people who've bashed iPhone sales every year since 2007.

    No need to get worked up guys.
  • Reply 40 of 52
    doctwelve said:
    Apple dividends are too high and their stock price too low. Cut dividends completely so that stock price was the only way to make more money and let's see what these analysts have to say about Apple. 
    STFU. The Dividend is actually too low for it's valuation and leverage over the industry. It's a massive growth stock with a weak dividend right now.
    A massive growth stock that grew nothing in a year. 
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