Bear Stearns ups Apple target to $125, says Palm at risk to iPhone

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  • Reply 21 of 35
    tdnc101tdnc101 Posts: 109member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post


    I didn't realize how asleep the cel phone industry was since the iPhone came out. It makes my Motorola RAZR feel like my brick phone from the early 90's.



    Same. I hate my phone so much now (not that I didn't hate RAZrs before).
  • Reply 22 of 35
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    "The analyst expects Apple will sell around 600,000 units of its initial iPhone handset during the fiscal 2007 year, which ends in September. However, he's modeling for that number to surge to 9.25 million units the following year."



    What planet are these people from?



    He expects the best phone ever realed to have those sales. More likely 40 milllion in 2007.
  • Reply 23 of 35
    I wonder if this is an added kicker that analysts are not noticing:



    Surely, some of the genre-bending innovations in the iPhone will be ones that make their way into all mobile phones in the future? Surely, Apple will make some serious $$ licensing this stuff (assuming their 200 patents include some of the important ones that others will want)?



    This was Qualcom's strategy.



    Apple had better beef up their legal staff quickly to do global IP-policing !
  • Reply 24 of 35
    I think, as usual, Apple is being conservative regarding their sales figures. Remember, the Razr was about $400-$500 and people flocked to them . People even switched carriers just so they could have a black one. Come June the new Apple phone will be THE status symbol for the cell phone carrying masses.



    Hell, I don't even own a cell phone (I don't want anyone to bug me) and I want one of these things. The problems with these will be the same with most of the newest Apple products: will customers be able to get their hands on one?
  • Reply 25 of 35
    eaieai Posts: 417member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    "The analyst expects Apple will sell around 600,000 units of its initial iPhone handset during the fiscal 2007 year, which ends in September. However, he's modeling for that number to surge to 9.25 million units the following year."



    What planet are these people from?



    He expects the best phone ever revealed to have those sales. More likely 40 million in 2007.



    It won't sell 40 million at that price, I doubt. That'd be almost 100% of the smartphone market, which just isn't going to happen. We're going to have to see some "less smart" phones aimed at consumers too before that happens. I'm certain this is something that apple is working on.



    I'm also wonder, what will they do with the iPod now? The iPhone really does make the iPod look somewhat dated - can they really release a new iPod before the iPhone is released, i.e. before June in the US, before October/November in Europe? If they did release it before the iPhone, it'd probably loose them some sales of the iPhone... If they go and release a new video ipod that doesn't look as flashy as the iPhone its going to be a bit of a letdown for people...



    I wonder what they'll do... I'm hoping for an iPhone without the phone stuff...
  • Reply 26 of 35
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,609member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by eAi View Post


    It won't sell 40 million at that price, I doubt. That'd be almost 100% of the smartphone market, which just isn't going to happen. We're going to have to see some "less smart" phones aimed at consumers too before that happens. I'm certain this is something that apple is working on.



    I'm also wonder, what will they do with the iPod now? The iPhone really does make the iPod look somewhat dated - can they really release a new iPod before the iPhone is released, i.e. before June in the US, before October/November in Europe? If they did release it before the iPhone, it'd probably loose them some sales of the iPhone... If they go and release a new video ipod that doesn't look as flashy as the iPhone its going to be a bit of a letdown for people...



    I wonder what they'll do... I'm hoping for an iPhone without the phone stuff...



    The thing to remember is that they will have a big impact on broadening the market. Many people didn't want a blackberry form-factor smart phone, and many others were disappointed with Windows Mobile. The key to market expansion for smartphones is finding the right KillerApp. Google Maps goes pretty far, but I am happy just with Google search.



    I think the smartphone market in general will grow by about 50% with the help of this device, and Apple will get about 10% of the existing market plus 30-50% of the growth. 20MM units isn't completely out of reach.
  • Reply 27 of 35
    macgregormacgregor Posts: 1,434member
    Palm smartphones may be threatened a bit, but if I were a Blackberry user, I'd rather have the tactile buttons for muscle memory aspect of it.



    The main thing is that this is not a pda, it is a communicator that can play music. It communicates via wireless, BT and cellphone frequencies.



    The Cingular contract I bet is only 2 years long. The Cingular guy kept saying "multiyear" while Jobs said almost nothing. That means 2-3 years to me. I'm sure in 2009, there will be more choice. However I blame Verizon for not joining Apple as much as I'd blame Apple for not partnering with Verizon. Verizon wants to out-Apple Apple with Chocolate phones and new video downloads as of this last week. I'm afraid we will now be forced to choose sides in a 2 or 3 front war, 'a la DVD-HD and BlueRay.



    It is all about the UI and that is it!! Multi-touch is the killer app that turns communications into a more nonlinear experience.
  • Reply 28 of 35
    pbg4 dudepbg4 dude Posts: 1,611member
    Apple has said the iPhone will be closed to 3rd party developers. That kinda kills it for me. This is an awesome device, but I'd like to run my own (or other people's) apps on it as well.



    I don't think the Palm developers' conference will be dead since they won't be able to develop for the iPhone.
  • Reply 29 of 35
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PBG4 Dude View Post


    Apple has said the iPhone will be closed to 3rd party developers. That kinda kills it for me. This is an awesome device, but I'd like to run my own (or other people's) apps on it as well.



    I don't think the Palm developers' conference will be dead since they won't be able to develop for the iPhone.



    Apple isn't saying much because it wants to manage expectations.

    At the WWDC they will probably announce a dev program.

    It will probably be similar to what exists in the world of gaming consoles.



    Third parties will be able to develop software and test it in a software emulator.

    If Apple likes the idea they will compile it for the iPhone and distribute it via iTunes.

    Customers will be able to buy "safe" & "reliable" software through iTunes and load it on their phone. The model has already proved successful and the infrastructure is already in place.



    The alternative is a wild wild west approach with thousands of dangerous, buggy & mediocre apps littering the landscape.



    Apple prefers the walled garden approach.
  • Reply 30 of 35
    davegeedavegee Posts: 2,765member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


    The thing to remember is that they will have a big impact on broadening the market.......



    I'm with ya 100%!



    Remember the days/years prior to Apple rolling out the iPod. The mp3 player market was already rolling along quite well and it had it's 'market leaders'. What I'd like to know is at what pace was that (pre-ipod) mp3 market growing vs. the post ipod mp3 market.



    We know what happened to that market... Apple owns a substantial chunk of it. Something that many people said could never happen.



    The more important thing is... Prior to Apple entering the market only the 'uber-geeks' and college-age and lower people even knew what an mp3 player was (not to mention how to get them to work)... Look at things now.. I'd be willing to bet even your fair share of grandmothers own or at least know about the iPod.



    Apple defined the MP3 market and I think we just witnessed them doing the same thing to the smart phone market so long as the shipping phone does what Steve's demo showed - (reliably)



    Apple can NOT afford a buggy experience. It killed the Newton along with Apple's change to define and own the PDA market (the press never let go of the handwriting recognition bugs - that were eventually fixed) and the device never recovered from the bad press (or Steve Jobs wrath).



    Interesting times ahead.. thats for sure!



    Dave
  • Reply 31 of 35
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 15,309moderator
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PBG4 Dude View Post


    Apple has said the iPhone will be closed to 3rd party developers. That kinda kills it for me. This is an awesome device, but I'd like to run my own (or other people



    I've heard that a few places. If it's true, it's gonna fall flat and I that's why I don't think it will be closed.



    One of my biggest concerns about the iphone is that now the competition has seen it, they have 6 whole months to do something about it.



    There's nothing to stop them making a similar device and the only difference would be that it couldn't have a multi-touch screen interface but a palm style interface would be fine. All they need to do is come up with the same apps and have similar behaviour.



    Apple already has a fully working prototype, why is it going to take so long to get it to us?
  • Reply 32 of 35
    AAPL will not approach anywhere near $125. These price spikes happen every year after Macworld and then begin to plummet.

    This year the stock will tumble once the iPhone hype wears down and the reality of the thing sets in. It's already happening where people are seeing the chinks in the armor of the iPhone. Then the Cisco lawsuit will send it down further because, if nothing else, it represents an air of uncertaintly about the product, and nothing scares investors more than uncertainty.

    Then once the iPhone is released, it will inevitably suffer from production problems. That will lower the price of the stock. Then there will be some unforeseen problem with it, whether it be failure to connect to networks or its easily scratched, that will bring about some kind of class action lawsuit.

    Once all of this gets resolved, the stock will take off again. So there's hope yet for getting a good bargain on stock. Remember a year ago it was at $85 and then dropped to $52 by August.
  • Reply 33 of 35
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Baron von Smiley View Post


    AAPL will not approach anywhere near $125. These price spikes happen every year after Macworld and then begin to plummet.



    I too believe it'll sink, but I don't think it's going to plummet. Last year was the Intel transition-- investors were a bit nervous. This year, there is nothing by anticipation for Leopard, new iPods, iPhone's release, and hints at other new goodies. Also, relative to other companies, Apple is STILL kicking butt. Next Tuesday's financial announcement is going to be hug, as well. They even alluded to it in the keynote.



    $125 is possible. I also believe that they are not going to split the stock anymore. Apple as an "expensive" stock makes sense now that the company is so solid. The earlier split was an attempt to spur more growth. They got it. Now, they can go the Google route and let the price rise as high as it'll go.
  • Reply 34 of 35
    shawnjshawnj Posts: 6,656member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacGregor View Post


    The Cingular contract I bet is only 2 years long. The Cingular guy kept saying "multiyear" while Jobs said almost nothing. That means 2-3 years to me. I'm sure in 2009, there will be more choice.



    You can bet some type of bidding war will happen when the exclusivity contract expires.



    It'll be good for Apple and good for consumers.
  • Reply 35 of 35
    who could imagine back then what has happenned to the smartphone industry i pnone 11 pro max samsung galaxy note 10 plus we miss you steve
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