The whole trick is timing. I bought a bit early Dec. 2018, but still made over 450K. I'm thinking its still a bit early we have several more legs down, maybe. Who really knows you just take your best guess and go with it. I would ask my 3 year old grandson but he's a few states over right now. I could get as good of advice from him as I any of the "Experts".
Mike
Mike, there's this new invention called "telephone". It's very cool. You can talk to people miles away; sometimes even in another city. Soon, you will be able to speak to your grandson who is 3 states away. Actually, Apple makes a few of these new amazing devices; they call it iPhone.
So after you spew out a long post filled with abject speculation, with no actual factual evidence, you come back with a pointless, sarcastic attack on Mike for no apparent reason.
How is this an attack? This was a good-humored joke. As for my long post (not nearly as long as DED's numerous theses), I have been warning on this forum for nearly a month that the big AAPL drop was coming. Read my post history. I was questioned on many an occasion what my ulterior motives were. The only motive I had was to forewarn AAPL shareholders to stop drinking the Kool-Aid that DED was selling. Fortunately, I sold $2 million worth of stock before the correction. Continue reading this fanboy bullsh*t that DED keeps putting out.
It didn't take a brain surgeon or a rocket scientist to understand that the Coronavirus pandemic will affect AAPL dramatically due to Tim Cook's stubborn reliance on China. Apple barely avoided the Trade War fallout (they got lucky Trump needed the stock market to stay high for his re-election). But, the Coronavirus delivered a one-two punch that Tim Cook could no longer avoid by cozying up to Trump. The investors who are blinded by their Apple fanboyism will have to ride this down or take a 20% hit.
We will know which way this goes by next Monday. I predict we will be having a full-blown epidemic in early stages over the weekend, and this will take the entire market down like we haven't seen since 2008. Is Apple doomed? Of course, it's not doomed. Apple will survive and will rise from the ashes, but the stock portfolios will be in the red for a long time. Those who hold cash will get rich. Those who hold AAPL will lose years of gains.
FWIW six months ago the same author wrote this: "But why is Apple buying back shares seemingly regardless of their price? It appears clear that Apple expects its share price to grow much higher in the future. So rather than carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels, Apple continues to buy shares back nearly as fast as it can all the time, even as the stock price jumps up and down as it continues to increment higher."
As for jumping on this unexpectedly low stock price I would assume that at the moment Apple would be in one of their "blackout periods" where they are not permitted to buy back stock except under a predefined/prearranged schedule that ignores what the stock price is at a point in time and instead picks a date for the transaction to occur. Of course they are not obligated to complete a pre-scheduled buyback, they can choose to hold on to the cash instead, but they also can't create one at their whim during a blackout period. Have I got that right?
That previous quote is correct. It's also compatible with this article.
This article isn't saying that Apple is suddenly now "carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels." It pretty clearly saidthe current "drop affords Apple a rare opportunity to snatch up billions of its shares at a discount nobody could have otherwise imagined possible."
You and others taking issue with what I wrote are forgetting that in being ready to buy back shares at all times, Apple automatically takes advantage of dips as they occur. Over time, Apple's share price continues to go up. This is a dip along the way, as is already evident today. Apple is not still at $260 where it bottomed this morning. It's already up 5%. Apple has ~$18 billion to spend of its last buy back allocation.
Why are you assuming that Apple is in a blackout period? Establish that first.
As of the end of the last quarter, Apple had $59 billion left that was authorized for share repurchases.
This all makes sense if this were an Apple issue and not a global economy issue. Personally, I expect the market to keep dropping until some good news about Covid-19 starts appearing. It doesn't matter if Apple can make iPhones if there are economy-wide layoffs crushing the demand for iStuff.
This market was long over due for a correction, I don't think a threat from Covid-19 has much to do with it. Personally I think we had too many bubbles this cycle, Tesla, Beyond Meat, Virgin Galactic.
I think Apple's buy backs are pre-planned and can't take advantage of dips like this and any good timing or bad timing is just averaged out.
Re: “buy backs are pre-planned” Companies get approval from their shareholders to buy back shares (or sell them). I don’t know what Apple’s plan looks like or the numbers offhand. But, let’s say they get authorization to buy back $50 billion in shares.
Apple then will buy back the shares when they think the stock is undervalued... so like now. When Apple runs through the $50 billion (or whenever) they go back and get approval to do it again. Bottom line, Apple is prepared to take advantage. Large companies game the system. Apple could also use the panic to acquire other companies in a weaker position (that aren’t able to raise cash).
Large companies are inherently advantaged, and usually only face difficulty if they’re poorly run and face fundamental shifts in their business. For example, IBM with mainframes. Or, RIM (Blackberry) with smartphones.
With taxes the advantages are most easily identified. Amazon (for example) pays no taxes. Ironically, Amazon’s #1 enemy President Trump doesn’t either.
Ever wonder why Facebook bought Oculus? Or, why Google buys or invests all over the place? It’s to write the R&D loses off... It’s why you and me take risks that can blow up in our face, but large companies just get larger.
Apple doesn't need to get approval from shareholders for buybacks. The Board just needs to vote to authorize them.
There’s no media induced panic. It is more like computer algorithm triggered panic selling that explains stock drops.
Why anyone would sell due to the Coronavirus is beyond me. If you buy stocks long, why would this disease outbreak affect your stock holdings?
if you had unrealized gain from Apple stock, why sell now; losing on the downside value of the stock today, and paying 15% capital gains tax in addition.
I sold a little less then half my AAPL at $310 last week as I saw this coming from non-traditional media sources. I expect to buy back around $225 or even in the 100’s range as this gets a lot worse. Which unfortunately it will in my opinion. I don’t mind paying cap gains if I can get a bargain. Assuming I survive this.
IMHO, AAPL is on track to retest its late 2018 lows, that is in the $140 range.
I don’t think that’s how stock buybacks work. If they could buy more AAPL any time the stock took a hit they’d be incentivized to pile on with negative news to drive down the stock, just like short sellers. It’s my understanding these stock repurchases are pre-timed and have nothing to do with market fluctuations.
Apple can buy back shares when prices dip. They just can't make decisions about the timing of repurchases based on material non-public information. They can have a plan that specifies the conditions under which shares are bought or they can have someone making the day-to-day decisions who doesn't have access to material non-public information. That person could, e.g., decide to buy shares today because the share price is down quite a bit from last week.
That said, if Apple is - or has someone - micromanaging the timing of purchases, the information we have suggests that they haven't been especially successful. If you look at quarterly totals for share purchases and the average price paid, and compare those numbers to the average share prices within the same quarters, Apple is only about $200 million ahead. That is to say, the total that Apple has paid to buy back shares in the open market (or in private negotiations, but not through ASR agreements) is only about $200 million less than it would have been had Apple paid the average (closing) share price for a given quarter for the number of shares it purchased in that quarter.
That said again, the information we have does suggest - at least to me - that Apple does look to buy more shares when share prices dip significantly. It tends to buy more shares in a quarter (as compared to the previous quarter) when the share price is down in that quarter (from the previous quarter).
So... I'd guess that Apple isn't minute-by-minute trying to time the market but that it does take advantage of share price dips over longer periods.
Apple blew over $200 billion on the stock repurchases and the stock didn't even move the needle until September 2018. Apple doesn't have enough money in the bank to buy all of their shares, so the screwup that Tim Cook made with solely relying on China for supply chains and assembly will undo hundreds of billions of dollars that Apple threw at buy backs. The stock will recover, of course, but it may take years. If you are young and are investing for retirement, you will be fine, as in the long run, AAPL is still a good investment. However, Apple is not doing well with innovation, so there are other investment options that will probably yield better returns. As much as it pains me to say it, MSFT is a much smarter investment in 2020 than AAPL.
Would have been good to sell a week ago and buy now. The bad part of this is Apple will now see no reason to increase dividends by more tha 5%. Oh well. I'm vacationing in Europe for the next three months. Ignore everything and eat out in Lisbon with €8 1/2 bottles of wine for a snack in the afternoon.
FWIW six months ago the same author wrote this: "But why is Apple buying back shares seemingly regardless of their price? It appears clear that Apple expects its share price to grow much higher in the future. So rather than carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels, Apple continues to buy shares back nearly as fast as it can all the time, even as the stock price jumps up and down as it continues to increment higher."
As for jumping on this unexpectedly low stock price I would assume that at the moment Apple would be in one of their "blackout periods" where they are not permitted to buy back stock except under a predefined/prearranged schedule that ignores what the stock price is at a point in time and instead picks a date for the transaction to occur. Of course they are not obligated to complete a pre-scheduled buyback, they can choose to hold on to the cash instead, but they also can't create one at their whim during a blackout period. Have I got that right?
Even if Apple has a self-imposed blackout period where it doesn't buy back shares, it likely isn't in that period now. Apple routinely buys back large numbers of shares during the last 4 weeks of its quarters, and we aren't even in the last 4 weeks yet. Also, the last time Apple issued a guidance revision it bought back a substantial number of shares between when it issued that revision and when it reported earnings.
Also, a Rule 10b5-1 Trading Plan doesn't have to ignore the stock price. It can pick specific dates on which shares will be bought or sold. But it can also specify prices at which they will be bought or sold. It can even specify that X number of shares will be bought if the share price drops Y% from a peak. The plan just has to be, speaking practically, self-executing - it has to provide an algorithm which determines when or for how much shares are bought or sold. It can't require further decision making from someone who, at that point, has material non-public information. Whoever does the buying or selling just follows the rules set forth in the plan.
Apple could also give someone - e.g., a broker - the authority to make decisions about when to buy or sell shares based on changing circumstances so long as that person doesn't have material non-public information. They might be told to buy shares as efficiently as they can - e.g., when there are price dips. So longs as they are making the decisions about individual buys and they don't have material non-public information, Apple isn't opening itself up to insider trading accusations.
All that said, it is all but certain that Apple at all times - not just, e.g., near the end of quarters - either buys back shares in accordance with a trading plan or has someone making the short-term buyback decisions who is effectively firewalled from any material non-public information.
Apple did at one time use a broker(s), but they abandoned that sometime back in favor of self-managing. As for Apple likely being in a black-out period that would be due to a significant material change with the announcement of revised guidance a couple of days ago, a rare event for Apple.
The whole trick is timing. I bought a bit early Dec. 2018, but still made over 450K. I'm thinking its still a bit early we have several more legs down, maybe. Who really knows you just take your best guess and go with it. I would ask my 3 year old grandson but he's a few states over right now. I could get as good of advice from him as I any of the "Experts".
Mike
Mike, there's this new invention called "telephone". It's very cool. You can talk to people miles away; sometimes even in another city. Soon, you will be able to speak to your grandson who is 3 states away. Actually, Apple makes a few of these new amazing devices; they call it iPhone.
Thanks for the timely advice. I did give him a call just after he finished his morning nap. He suggested I hold off for a another month for the smoke to clear.
Mike
I agree with your grandson. He is good enough to succeed Warren Buffet.
This all makes sense if this were an Apple issue and not a global economy issue. Personally, I expect the market to keep dropping until some good news about Covid-19 starts appearing. It doesn't matter if Apple can make iPhones if there are economy-wide layoffs crushing the demand for iStuff.
This market was long over due for a correction, I don't think a threat from Covid-19 has much to do with it. Personally I think we had too many bubbles this cycle, Tesla, Beyond Meat, Virgin Galactic.
I think Apple's buy backs are pre-planned and can't take advantage of dips like this and any good timing or bad timing is just averaged out.
Eh, I'd say both are true. It was due for a correction but the virus panic triggered it. I always like to see what "regular people" are thinking. I have a colleague and friend who is super cautious and a little bit of hypochondriac. She went to Vegas for a conference yesterday and wore a mask on the plane. This, despite the CDC director specifically stating this was necessary and counterproductive. She said "Im not messing around It's spreading like wildfire in Europe." I tried to explain that was a huge exaggeration, but she wouldn't hear it. Regular people are buying this media insanity. And the markets are feeling it.
I don’t think that’s how stock buybacks work. If they could buy more AAPL any time the stock took a hit they’d be incentivized to pile on with negative news to drive down the stock, just like short sellers. It’s my understanding these stock repurchases are pre-timed and have nothing to do with market fluctuations.
Apple can buy back shares when prices dip. They just can't make decisions about the timing of repurchases based on material non-public information. They can have a plan that specifies the conditions under which shares are bought or they can have someone making the day-to-day decisions who doesn't have access to material non-public information. That person could, e.g., decide to buy shares today because the share price is down quite a bit from last week.
That said, if Apple is - or has someone - micromanaging the timing of purchases, the information we have suggests that they haven't been especially successful. If you look at quarterly totals for share purchases and the average price paid, and compare those numbers to the average share prices within the same quarters, Apple is only about $200 million ahead. That is to say, the total that Apple has paid to buy back shares in the open market (or in private negotiations, but not through ASR agreements) is only about $200 million less than it would have been had Apple paid the average (closing) share price for a given quarter for the number of shares it purchased in that quarter.
That said again, the information we have does suggest - at least to me - that Apple does look to buy more shares when share prices dip significantly. It tends to buy more shares in a quarter (as compared to the previous quarter) when the share price is down in that quarter (from the previous quarter).
So... I'd guess that Apple isn't minute-by-minute trying to time the market but that it does take advantage of share price dips over longer periods.
Apple blew over $200 billion on the stock repurchases and the stock didn't even move the needle until September 2018. Apple doesn't have enough money in the bank to buy all of their shares, so the screwup that Tim Cook made with solely relying on China for supply chains and assembly will undo hundreds of billions of dollars that Apple threw at buy backs. The stock will recover, of course, but it may take years. If you are young and are investing for retirement, you will be fine, as in the long run, AAPL is still a good investment. However, Apple is not doing well with innovation, so there are other investment options that will probably yield better returns. As much as it pains me to say it, MSFT is a much smarter investment in 2020 than AAPL.
So many logical fallacies. First, it's impossible to prove that stock buys didn't "move the needle" because we don't know what the price would have been if Apple hadn't taken millions of shares off the market. No company can "buy itself." It's financially and legally impossible. Apple is no more "solely relying" on China than any other major product company. It's almost certain that looking back 5 or 10 years from now AAPL won't be the #1 investment one could have made, but I'd want it to be a significant part of any balanced portfolio (as it is because it's a big part of so many mutual funds--managed and index funds). At least you didn't say that Telsa would be a smarter investment than Apple.
corrections said: This year? The Flu kills 40 times as many people as Coronavirus has, every year!
... so far! The only thing that keeps this statement true is the fact that it hasn’t spread as far as the flu has already. I don’t think these kinds of quotes getting tossed around drawing comparisons to the flu are going to age well.
This virus is something like 20x more lethal than the seasonal flu. Assuming nothing changes and it continues to spread, viruses like this tend to infect 50-60% of the population. Now figure in a 2-3% mortality rate and do the math.
It could also unfold like the Spanish Flu in 1918-1919, where it was a fairly mild outbreak in the spring, kinda went quiet during the summer, then came back in the fall with a vengeance and killed a fuckton of people. And we’re at least a year away from a vaccine. Antiviral drugs aren’t doing shit so far.
I think people are quickly realizing the cat is out of the bag.
I don’t think that’s how stock buybacks work. If they could buy more AAPL any time the stock took a hit they’d be incentivized to pile on with negative news to drive down the stock, just like short sellers. It’s my understanding these stock repurchases are pre-timed and have nothing to do with market fluctuations.
Apple can buy back shares when prices dip. They just can't make decisions about the timing of repurchases based on material non-public information. They can have a plan that specifies the conditions under which shares are bought or they can have someone making the day-to-day decisions who doesn't have access to material non-public information. That person could, e.g., decide to buy shares today because the share price is down quite a bit from last week.
That said, if Apple is - or has someone - micromanaging the timing of purchases, the information we have suggests that they haven't been especially successful. If you look at quarterly totals for share purchases and the average price paid, and compare those numbers to the average share prices within the same quarters, Apple is only about $200 million ahead. That is to say, the total that Apple has paid to buy back shares in the open market (or in private negotiations, but not through ASR agreements) is only about $200 million less than it would have been had Apple paid the average (closing) share price for a given quarter for the number of shares it purchased in that quarter.
That said again, the information we have does suggest - at least to me - that Apple does look to buy more shares when share prices dip significantly. It tends to buy more shares in a quarter (as compared to the previous quarter) when the share price is down in that quarter (from the previous quarter).
So... I'd guess that Apple isn't minute-by-minute trying to time the market but that it does take advantage of share price dips over longer periods.
Apple blew over $200 billion on the stock repurchases and the stock didn't even move the needle until September 2018. Apple doesn't have enough money in the bank to buy all of their shares, so the screwup that Tim Cook made with solely relying on China for supply chains and assembly will undo hundreds of billions of dollars that Apple threw at buy backs. The stock will recover, of course, but it may take years. If you are young and are investing for retirement, you will be fine, as in the long run, AAPL is still a good investment. However, Apple is not doing well with innovation, so there are other investment options that will probably yield better returns. As much as it pains me to say it, MSFT is a much smarter investment in 2020 than AAPL.
So many logical fallacies. First, it's impossible to prove that stock buys didn't "move the needle" because we don't know what the price would have been if Apple hadn't taken millions of shares off the market. No company can "buy itself." It's financially and legally impossible. Apple is no more "solely relying" on China than any other major product company. It's almost certain that looking back 5 or 10 years from now AAPL won't be the #1 investment one could have made, but I'd want it to be a significant part of any balanced portfolio (as it is because it's a big part of so many mutual funds--managed and index funds). At least you didn't say that Telsa would be a smarter investment than Apple.
Most companies diversified their supply chains from China years ago. For example, US furniture companies moved most of their manufacturing out of China to Vietnam and other neighboring countries 5 years ago. Clothing companies moved their manufacturing out of China years ago. Samsung moved all of their manufacturing out of China last year. So, a lot of companies started diversifying the location of their manufacturing and supply chains a long time ago, and many of them are not as dependent on China today as they were 5-10 years ago. Apple is one of the few companies that stubbornly refused to move out of China until very recently, when they set up a plant in India and in Brazil, which put out just a small fraction of the product that the Chinese manufacturing facilities do.
Other than that, you really didn't list any other of my "fallacies," since you practically agreed with the other points that I stated.
This all makes sense if this were an Apple issue and not a global economy issue. Personally, I expect the market to keep dropping until some good news about Covid-19 starts appearing. It doesn't matter if Apple can make iPhones if there are economy-wide layoffs crushing the demand for iStuff.
This market was long over due for a correction, I don't think a threat from Covid-19 has much to do with it. Personally I think we had too many bubbles this cycle, Tesla, Beyond Meat, Virgin Galactic.
I think Apple's buy backs are pre-planned and can't take advantage of dips like this and any good timing or bad timing is just averaged out.
Eh, I'd say both are true. It was due for a correction but the virus panic triggered it. I always like to see what "regular people" are thinking. I have a colleague and friend who is super cautious and a little bit of hypochondriac. She went to Vegas for a conference yesterday and wore a mask on the plane. This, despite the CDC director specifically stating this was necessary and counterproductive. She said "Im not messing around It's spreading like wildfire in Europe." I tried to explain that was a huge exaggeration, but she wouldn't hear it. Regular people are buying this media insanity. And the markets are feeling it.
Your friend is reasonably cautious for an airplane flight, but I agree that surgical masks are a waste for protection, and a much better use for those infected to prevent them spreading it. Frequent hand washing, never shaking hands, not touching your face, and remaining a couple of meters away from others is a proven strategy.
I find the whole "nothing to see here" myopic. Because so much is unknown about SARS-nCOV-19, especially about it's transmission, incubation, and even recovery, there has been a continuing chain of errors by agencies world wide dealing with this. The bottom line is that an epidemic would likely require both containment and mitigation strategies, would stress our medical system, and will lead to a reduced economy or even recession, something the Chinese are going through right now.
This all makes sense if this were an Apple issue and not a global economy issue. Personally, I expect the market to keep dropping until some good news about Covid-19 starts appearing. It doesn't matter if Apple can make iPhones if there are economy-wide layoffs crushing the demand for iStuff.
This market was long over due for a correction, I don't think a threat from Covid-19 has much to do with it. Personally I think we had too many bubbles this cycle, Tesla, Beyond Meat, Virgin Galactic.
I think Apple's buy backs are pre-planned and can't take advantage of dips like this and any good timing or bad timing is just averaged out.
Eh, I'd say both are true. It was due for a correction but the virus panic triggered it. I always like to see what "regular people" are thinking. I have a colleague and friend who is super cautious and a little bit of hypochondriac. She went to Vegas for a conference yesterday and wore a mask on the plane. This, despite the CDC director specifically stating this was necessary and counterproductive. She said "Im not messing around It's spreading like wildfire in Europe." I tried to explain that was a huge exaggeration, but she wouldn't hear it. Regular people are buying this media insanity. And the markets are feeling it.
Your friend is reasonably cautious for an airplane flight, but I agree that surgical masks are a waste for protection, and a much better use for those infected to prevent them spreading it. Frequent hand washing, never shaking hands, not touching your face, and remaining a couple of meters away from others is a proven strategy.
I find the whole "nothing to see here" myopic. Because so much is unknown about SARS-nCOV-19, especially about it's transmission, incubation, and even recovery, there has been a continuing chain of errors by agencies world wide dealing with this. The bottom line is that an epidemic would likely require both containment and mitigation strategies, would stress our medical system, and will lead to a reduced economy or even recession, something the Chinese are going through right now.
Also, let's not forget that the US is the only developed country in the world without universal healthcare. When hundreds of thousands of people need to be hospitalized, who is going to pay for it? Half of the US citizens and permanent residents cannot afford simple medical care, not to mention weeks in the hospital at $5,000 per day. At least, in places like Italy, Germany, and the UK, and Canada, people who get the Coronavirus and need hospitalization will not have to worry about the medical costs. Who is going to pay for quarantining millions of people in special facilities, like what the Chinese had to do? Do you folks realize what this is all leading to? Medical bankruptcies will sky rocket because there is no way in hell that the lower-middle-class and poor Americans without health insurance or with an extremely high deductible will be able to afford even one day in the hospital. Hell, they won't even be able to afford an ambulance ride, which runs between $1500 and $6000.
The US will finally have to reckon with the decades of dysfunctional governance at all levels by the two major parties because the "free market" will not be able to solve the Coronavirus epidemic problem.
My my, the modern media does bring out the worry warts.
So far, this virus has killed 3000 people.
The flu dispatches 650,000 people every year.
Like the flu, it only kills the very young, the very old, or people with a compromised immune system.
The doctors’ are giving the same advice for flu. Don’t go to a hospital where you will probably infect people who’re already sick, stay hydrated, stay at home and rest.
This virus isn’t going anywhere.
Like flu, it won’t be cured.
Like the flu, it will continue to kill people every year.
Like the flu, it’ll fade from the global consciousness.
Here’s a potential source of positive news flow on the Covid-19 situation. This chart likely will see a spike in recoveries (green) corresponding to the spike in confirmed cases representing China’s shift a couple weeks ago in the way it determined a confirmed case. The recoveries numbers trail confirmed by about two weeks; about the length of time the virus takes to run its course in a person. A big spike in recoveries will correspond with a big drop in Active cases, which peaked at 58k about 10 days ago and is now at 44k.
I've had my eye on a handful of stocks for a while now that I wanted to acquire, but have held off because I felt their price was too high and some of them have now come down to a level that makes them attractive for me and I have slowly begun acquiring a few things here and there.
If things go down even more, then I will pick up some more for even cheaper bargain prices.
There’s no media induced panic. It is more like computer algorithm triggered panic selling that explains stock drops.
Why anyone would sell due to the Coronavirus is beyond me. If you buy stocks long, why would this disease outbreak affect your stock holdings?
if you had unrealized gain from Apple stock, why sell now; losing on the downside value of the stock today, and paying 15% capital gains tax in addition.
I sold a little less then half my AAPL at $310 last week as I saw this coming from non-traditional media sources. I expect to buy back around $225 or even in the 100’s range as this gets a lot worse. Which unfortunately it will in my opinion. I don’t mind paying cap gains if I can get a bargain. Assuming I survive this.
IMHO, AAPL is on track to retest its late 2018 lows, that is in the $140 range.
Is there going to be a credit freeze in China again? Or somewhere else in the world!?
If Apple goes down to $140 anytime in the next six months (highly unlikely), it’s time to take out loans and load up.
The Apple Is Doomed machination is strong with you.
Comments
It didn't take a brain surgeon or a rocket scientist to understand that the Coronavirus pandemic will affect AAPL dramatically due to Tim Cook's stubborn reliance on China. Apple barely avoided the Trade War fallout (they got lucky Trump needed the stock market to stay high for his re-election). But, the Coronavirus delivered a one-two punch that Tim Cook could no longer avoid by cozying up to Trump. The investors who are blinded by their Apple fanboyism will have to ride this down or take a 20% hit.
We will know which way this goes by next Monday. I predict we will be having a full-blown epidemic in early stages over the weekend, and this will take the entire market down like we haven't seen since 2008. Is Apple doomed? Of course, it's not doomed. Apple will survive and will rise from the ashes, but the stock portfolios will be in the red for a long time. Those who hold cash will get rich. Those who hold AAPL will lose years of gains.
Apple blew over $200 billion on the stock repurchases and the stock didn't even move the needle until September 2018. Apple doesn't have enough money in the bank to buy all of their shares, so the screwup that Tim Cook made with solely relying on China for supply chains and assembly will undo hundreds of billions of dollars that Apple threw at buy backs. The stock will recover, of course, but it may take years. If you are young and are investing for retirement, you will be fine, as in the long run, AAPL is still a good investment. However, Apple is not doing well with innovation, so there are other investment options that will probably yield better returns. As much as it pains me to say it, MSFT is a much smarter investment in 2020 than AAPL.
Wait for...wait for it...crap, too late..
I agree with your grandson. He is good enough to succeed Warren Buffet.
Eh, I'd say both are true. It was due for a correction but the virus panic triggered it. I always like to see what "regular people" are thinking. I have a colleague and friend who is super cautious and a little bit of hypochondriac. She went to Vegas for a conference yesterday and wore a mask on the plane. This, despite the CDC director specifically stating this was necessary and counterproductive. She said "Im not messing around It's spreading like wildfire in Europe." I tried to explain that was a huge exaggeration, but she wouldn't hear it. Regular people are buying this media insanity. And the markets are feeling it.
I think people are quickly realizing the cat is out of the bag.
Other than that, you really didn't list any other of my "fallacies," since you practically agreed with the other points that I stated.
I find the whole "nothing to see here" myopic. Because so much is unknown about SARS-nCOV-19, especially about it's transmission, incubation, and even recovery, there has been a continuing chain of errors by agencies world wide dealing with this. The bottom line is that an epidemic would likely require both containment and mitigation strategies, would stress our medical system, and will lead to a reduced economy or even recession, something the Chinese are going through right now.
The US will finally have to reckon with the decades of dysfunctional governance at all levels by the two major parties because the "free market" will not be able to solve the Coronavirus epidemic problem.
I've had my eye on a handful of stocks for a while now that I wanted to acquire, but have held off because I felt their price was too high and some of them have now come down to a level that makes them attractive for me and I have slowly begun acquiring a few things here and there.
If things go down even more, then I will pick up some more for even cheaper bargain prices.
If Apple goes down to $140 anytime in the next six months (highly unlikely), it’s time to take out loans and load up.
The Apple Is Doomed machination is strong with you.