FFS, a few people here, myself included were warning about this from the last week in January, when China announced the outbreak, and we were trashed for spreading "fear". I found out about it earlier than that reading sites that tracked national security.
Everything that played out in China, South Korea, Singapore, Italy, and Spain, was happening weeks before the U.S., and people still sat on their hands. What more data did you need at that time? How "rational" are you people for ignoring what was right in front of you, by extrapolation?
But of course, now you want more data to make the decision.
Weak sauce.
Yes, you did tell us so. You appear to have been right. I appear to have been wrong. Congratulations. Well done. In many ways, you are a living god. People should throw little rose petals at you as you walk down the street. You're so smart, so popular, so beloved.
But I disagree that it's wrong to base decisions on data. When I talk about the need for data and models to inform decisions, I'm really talking about what policy makers can and should do (could and should have done).
I'm not on the Senate intelligence committee. I don't work at the CIA, CDC, or White House. The only information I have available to me is what the US Infotainment industry serves up. The Infotainment industry was saying that this virus produces "flu-like" symptoms; that 80% of cases are "mild"; etc. I also know that the Chinese government is a highly dubious source of information, and that it's hard to infer truth from their actions.
Once the virus got out of China and started hitting open societies, though, it became much more apparent -- even through the Infotainment providers -- that this isn't the flu and that what some people call "mild" is not what I would call mild. While some people get this and are asymptomatic, others are hit very, very hard. A co-worker's 38 year old sister with no prior conditions caught this thing and felt like she was going to die. She says it's the sickest she's ever been and the recovery has been very slow. That's not what I'd call "flu-like" or "mild". That's the kind of information that I was not getting back in January.
Based on the info available to me now, I strongly lean in the direction of taking the economic hit in order to contain this thing. But I recognize that I'm still not on the Senate Intelligence committee, etc -- I'm not the policy maker, this isn't my call to make. But I think the people who do need to make this call should make it based on a careful analysis of data, not shoot-from-the-hip-ism. Unfortunately, I think shoot-from-the-hip is all that the Reality TV star knows.
Watch Italy. They had a horrendous start, and now they are trending better. The Urban areas in the U.S. will follow this pattern with the current mitigations in place, so give it time.
You should also be aware that younger people that catch this, may end up having life long complications, so consider all of the medical data, not just the deaths.
Another consideration is that if hospitals are full of COVID patients then others will be crowded out. I imagine now is not a good time to have a heart attack in Italy.
Most hospitals are postponing elective operations. If you happen to be waiting for a transplant to save your life, it's possible that you won't get the surgery in time.
Giving our medical system breathing room for expansion, and blood serum testing that is being trialed to determine if a person has had Covid-19, are reasons enough for continuing shelter in place as long as possible.
Rather than having these factories pump out all Apple things, wouldn't it be better to pump out things we actually need like ventilators? I know there is benefit to Apple devices, but I feel like there are more important things they could be building to help everyone out.
Or maybe COVID-19 is just some big hoax and we don't actually need those masks and ventilators?
China is already doing that. Has been doing that. Shipping them out around the world -- including teams of health professionals to aid in the care of those infected. Just not to the U.S.
Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
That's just nonsense that originated on FauxNews and got propagated by Trump.
But it seems to be carrying weight among conservatives: The Texas Assistant AG just proposed that seniors should be willing to sacrifice their lives for the sake of Trump's economy. But it's maybe not a bad idea -- I can think of a few nut cases who would likely benefit the economy if they stepped forward.
Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
I've seen estimates of the value of a human life ranging from $2 million to $10 million. So far, a little over 500 people have died in the US, so that's at most a loss of $5 billion which is pretty small compared to the economic harm sustained so far.
That's a completely absurd statement to make and your extrapolation of that absurdity is even more absurd.
So what value are you placing on human life when you claim that the economic cost of containing the virus is greater than the benefit? What’s your “rational” calculation?
Im perfectly happy too look at it that way if you are.
Let's take your low end claim of $2 million per human. The average American worker will never, EVER come close top making $2 million in their lifetime. That same worker will never, EVER come close to spending $2 million. The lower class takes more from the economy than they contribute. They are a drain on the economy, a net minus. We've heard from 'experts' for decades about how overpopulation will be the death of us. Shall I go on? All I'm saying is that, like the virus, there is a point of no return for the world economy. A worldwide great depression could kill many more humans than the virus will, slowly and painfully through starvation, suicide, war, etc. In another post you grimly consider that India could see 10 millions deaths. In a country of 1.3 billion humans, most of which are dirt poor and live in grinding poverty, what does it mean that 1% of the population is suddenly gone? From a humanistic, altruistic, moralistic perspective it's a travesty, unacceptable, disastrous outcome but in the grand scheme of history and the world it's nothing but a blip on the screen. Of course, as long as that blip doesn't include you or me, right?
Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
That's just nonsense that originated on FauxNews and got propagated by Trump.
But it seems to be carrying weight among conservatives: The Texas Assistant AG just proposed that seniors should be willing to sacrifice their lives for the sake of Trump's economy. But it's maybe not a bad idea -- I can think of a few nut cases who would likely benefit the economy if they stepped forward.
Blah, blah, blah, yada, yada, yada, it's always politics with you. Evil Trump and and his ignorant cadre of conservatives. You sound like a broken record with your constant drone of hate for those who don't think like you. I bet you write letters to the editor of your local newspaper too. I suppose that after six months of worldwide lockdown you believe the economy will miraculously spring back to tis former glory in a few days like nothing happened.
Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
I've seen estimates of the value of a human life ranging from $2 million to $10 million. So far, a little over 500 people have died in the US, so that's at most a loss of $5 billion which is pretty small compared to the economic harm sustained so far.
That's a completely absurd statement to make and your extrapolation of that absurdity is even more absurd.
So what value are you placing on human life when you claim that the economic cost of containing the virus is greater than the benefit? What’s your “rational” calculation?
Im perfectly happy too look at it that way if you are.
Let's take your low end claim of $2 million per human. The average American worker will never, EVER come close top making $2 million in their lifetime. That same worker will never, EVER come close to spending $2 million. The lower class takes more from the economy than they contribute. They are a drain on the economy, a net minus. We've heard from 'experts' for decades about how overpopulation will be the death of us. Shall I go on? All I'm saying is that, like the virus, there is a point of no return for the world economy. A worldwide great depression could kill many more humans than the virus will, slowly and painfully through starvation, suicide, war, etc. In another post you grimly consider that India could see 10 millions deaths. In a country of 1.3 billion humans, most of which are dirt poor and live in grinding poverty, what does it mean that 1% of the population is suddenly gone? From a humanistic, altruistic, moralistic perspective it's a travesty, unacceptable, disastrous outcome but in the grand scheme of history and the world it's nothing but a blip on the screen. Of course, as long as that blip doesn't include you or me, right?
You do know that those "lower class workers" are delivering everything we consume, stock the store shelves, clean the hospitals, and the myriad things the keep our system rolling along relatively smoothly during this crisis. Give them a raise in the form of a bump of the minimum wage, health care, and paid sick leave; they all deserve it.
You libertarians are well represented by Rand Paul, and what a dick he has turned out to be.
Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
That's just nonsense that originated on FauxNews and got propagated by Trump.
But it seems to be carrying weight among conservatives: The Texas Assistant AG just proposed that seniors should be willing to sacrifice their lives for the sake of Trump's economy. But it's maybe not a bad idea -- I can think of a few nut cases who would likely benefit the economy if they stepped forward.
Blah, blah, blah, yada, yada, yada, it's always politics with you. Evil Trump and and his ignorant cadre of conservatives. You sound like a broken record with your constant drone of hate for those who don't think like you. I bet you write letters to the editor of your local newspaper too. I suppose that after six months of worldwide lockdown you believe the economy will miraculously spring back to tis former glory in a few days like nothing happened.
Where in the hell did you get the idea that we would be six months in lockdown? Seriously, where?
Really, no one is talking that. Most countries expect that 3 to 4 weeks will "flatten the curve" enough to buy time for the medical community to buildup enough added supplies, beds, and equipment, to lower the fatality rate.
Many industries aren't going to come back at all until there are either enough testing, or better, blood testing for antigens, with vaccines being the ultimate end of the pandemic.
Maybe the fact that 6 of 7 Trump properties are now closed is what is causing the concern by the administration, and not the general economy.
EDIT:
Bill Gates believes that 6 to 8 weeks will be necessary.
Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
I've seen estimates of the value of a human life ranging from $2 million to $10 million. So far, a little over 500 people have died in the US, so that's at most a loss of $5 billion which is pretty small compared to the economic harm sustained so far.
That's a completely absurd statement to make and your extrapolation of that absurdity is even more absurd.
So what value are you placing on human life when you claim that the economic cost of containing the virus is greater than the benefit? What’s your “rational” calculation?
Im perfectly happy too look at it that way if you are.
Let's take your low end claim of $2 million per human. The average American worker will never, EVER come close top making $2 million in their lifetime. That same worker will never, EVER come close to spending $2 million. The lower class takes more from the economy than they contribute. They are a drain on the economy, a net minus. We've heard from 'experts' for decades about how overpopulation will be the death of us. Shall I go on? All I'm saying is that, like the virus, there is a point of no return for the world economy. A worldwide great depression could kill many more humans than the virus will, slowly and painfully through starvation, suicide, war, etc. In another post you grimly consider that India could see 10 millions deaths. In a country of 1.3 billion humans, most of which are dirt poor and live in grinding poverty, what does it mean that 1% of the population is suddenly gone? From a humanistic, altruistic, moralistic perspective it's a travesty, unacceptable, disastrous outcome but in the grand scheme of history and the world it's nothing but a blip on the screen. Of course, as long as that blip doesn't include you or me, right?
It's not just about income and spending. People make contributions beyond that. There's been a lot of work done from RAND at the start of the Cold War to insurance companies on the value of human life. Here's a fairly accessible example:
In that article, they reference values of 1 year of human life ranging from $50k to $139k. So, for someone with 30 years left to live, that's between $1.5 and $3.9 million. For someone with 60 years left, it's $3 million to $7.8 million.
Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
That's just nonsense that originated on FauxNews and got propagated by Trump.
But it seems to be carrying weight among conservatives: The Texas Assistant AG just proposed that seniors should be willing to sacrifice their lives for the sake of Trump's economy. But it's maybe not a bad idea -- I can think of a few nut cases who would likely benefit the economy if they stepped forward.
Do you mean the Lieutenant Governor, Lieutenant Dan?
Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
That's just nonsense that originated on FauxNews and got propagated by Trump.
But it seems to be carrying weight among conservatives: The Texas Assistant AG just proposed that seniors should be willing to sacrifice their lives for the sake of Trump's economy. But it's maybe not a bad idea -- I can think of a few nut cases who would likely benefit the economy if they stepped forward.
Blah, blah, blah, yada, yada, yada, it's always politics with you. Evil Trump and and his ignorant cadre of conservatives. You sound like a broken record with your constant drone of hate for those who don't think like you. I bet you write letters to the editor of your local newspaper too. I suppose that after six months of worldwide lockdown you believe the economy will miraculously spring back to tis former glory in a few days like nothing happened.
Where in the hell did you get the idea that we would be six months in lockdown? Seriously, where?
Really, no one is talking that. Most countries expect that 3 to 4 weeks will "flatten the curve" enough to buy time for the medical community to buildup enough added supplies, beds, and equipment, to lower the fatality rate.
Many industries aren't going to come back at all until there are either enough testing, or better, blood testing for antigens, with vaccines being the ultimate end of the pandemic.
Maybe the fact that 6 of 7 Trump properties are now closed is what is causing the concern by the administration, and not the general economy.
I could imagine it being 6 months or longer if people don't take this seriously now. Trump already wants to call the whole thing off and go back to business as usual. A rolling partial lockdown just means a virus that keeps coming back over and over again. I think that we can't be sure we're out of the woods until we get a vaccine that works reasonably well.
Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
That's just nonsense that originated on FauxNews and got propagated by Trump.
But it seems to be carrying weight among conservatives: The Texas Assistant AG just proposed that seniors should be willing to sacrifice their lives for the sake of Trump's economy. But it's maybe not a bad idea -- I can think of a few nut cases who would likely benefit the economy if they stepped forward.
Blah, blah, blah, yada, yada, yada, it's always politics with you. Evil Trump and and his ignorant cadre of conservatives. You sound like a broken record with your constant drone of hate for those who don't think like you. I bet you write letters to the editor of your local newspaper too. I suppose that after six months of worldwide lockdown you believe the economy will miraculously spring back to tis former glory in a few days like nothing happened.
Combine the recent Fed moves with the $2 trillion package that seems close to passing, plus similar moves by the Europeans, and I actually think the economy could bounce back pretty quickly. In fact, it might look like the post WW2 boom.
Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
That's just nonsense that originated on FauxNews and got propagated by Trump.
But it seems to be carrying weight among conservatives: The Texas Assistant AG just proposed that seniors should be willing to sacrifice their lives for the sake of Trump's economy. But it's maybe not a bad idea -- I can think of a few nut cases who would likely benefit the economy if they stepped forward.
Blah, blah, blah, yada, yada, yada, it's always politics with you. Evil Trump and and his ignorant cadre of conservatives. You sound like a broken record with your constant drone of hate for those who don't think like you. I bet you write letters to the editor of your local newspaper too. I suppose that after six months of worldwide lockdown you believe the economy will miraculously spring back to tis former glory in a few days like nothing happened.
The broken record is the constant stream of bullshit coming from FauxNews and its Minion in Chief.
Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
That's just nonsense that originated on FauxNews and got propagated by Trump.
But it seems to be carrying weight among conservatives: The Texas Assistant AG just proposed that seniors should be willing to sacrifice their lives for the sake of Trump's economy. But it's maybe not a bad idea -- I can think of a few nut cases who would likely benefit the economy if they stepped forward.
Do you mean the Lieutenant Governor, Lieutenant Dan?
I suggest that he walk his talk and volunteer as one of the front line people out there without adequate protection. Maybe make his obviously sorry excuse of a life somewhat worthwhile.
Rational people are already asking if completely destroying the world economy will cause more harm than the virus itself will. There are millions of U.S. workers losing their jobs and those jobs will NOT be coming back after the shutdown is over. The economy will not magically bounce back to where it was pre-Covid-19. My daughter-in-law has been talking to her friends that operate small businesses like nail salons, craft stores and such. They are telling her they are out of business for good, bankrupt, and will not be reopening. Of course the big restaurant chains will survive but the local sandwich shop on the corner is gone for good. Poof!
That's just nonsense that originated on FauxNews and got propagated by Trump.
But it seems to be carrying weight among conservatives: The Texas Assistant AG just proposed that seniors should be willing to sacrifice their lives for the sake of Trump's economy. But it's maybe not a bad idea -- I can think of a few nut cases who would likely benefit the economy if they stepped forward.
Do you mean the Lieutenant Governor, Lieutenant Dan?
I suggest that he walk his talk and volunteer as one of the front line people out there without adequate protection. Maybe make his obviously sorry excuse of a life somewhat worthwhile.
I'd do one better than that -- he should try to get infected. See how it goes.
Comments
Giving our medical system breathing room for expansion, and blood serum testing that is being trialed to determine if a person has had Covid-19, are reasons enough for continuing shelter in place as long as possible.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/can-coronavirus-antibody-test-help-build-an-army-of-immune-medical-workers?ref=home&utm_source=web_push
China is already doing that. Has been doing that. Shipping them out around the world -- including teams of health professionals to aid in the care of those infected. Just not to the U.S.
You libertarians are well represented by Rand Paul, and what a dick he has turned out to be.
Really, no one is talking that. Most countries expect that 3 to 4 weeks will "flatten the curve" enough to buy time for the medical community to buildup enough added supplies, beds, and equipment, to lower the fatality rate.
Many industries aren't going to come back at all until there are either enough testing, or better, blood testing for antigens, with vaccines being the ultimate end of the pandemic.
Maybe the fact that 6 of 7 Trump properties are now closed is what is causing the concern by the administration, and not the general economy.
EDIT:
Bill Gates believes that 6 to 8 weeks will be necessary.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/03/24/bill-gates-on-covid-19-best-case-scenario-is-6-to-10-weeks-of-total-isolation-in-us/?utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=social&utm_content=3223148212&utm_campaign=sprinklrForbesMainTwitter#5ddfbd7740e7
http://content.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1808049,00.html
In that article, they reference values of 1 year of human life ranging from $50k to $139k. So, for someone with 30 years left to live, that's between $1.5 and $3.9 million. For someone with 60 years left, it's $3 million to $7.8 million.
Do you mean the Lieutenant Governor, Lieutenant Dan?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/politics/dan-patrick-texas/index.html ;
I could imagine it being 6 months or longer if people don't take this seriously now. Trump already wants to call the whole thing off and go back to business as usual. A rolling partial lockdown just means a virus that keeps coming back over and over again. I think that we can't be sure we're out of the woods until we get a vaccine that works reasonably well.
Combine the recent Fed moves with the $2 trillion package that seems close to passing, plus similar moves by the Europeans, and I actually think the economy could bounce back pretty quickly. In fact, it might look like the post WW2 boom.
The broken record is the constant stream of bullshit coming from FauxNews and its Minion in Chief.