Apple to debut multiple ARM MacBook, desktop models in 2021
Apple is predicted to integrate its custom ARM processors into multiple Mac models in 2021, with designs spanning both Mac desktops and MacBooks, according to TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
Macs like Apple's 2020 MacBook Air could benefit from ARM CPUs in 2021.
In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple is moving forward with an "aggressive processor replacement strategy" that should bear fruit in the fourth quarter of 2020 or the first quarter of 2021. As part of the movement, the tech giant will bring its ARM chips to a wider selection of Mac desktops and laptops next year.
With Apple in control of chip design and manufacturing, the company will be able to introduce new Mac models at peak market demand, Kuo says. Importantly, Apple will no longer be held to the whims of Intel, which has in the past delayed development, manufacturing and shipment of promised silicon.
Further, switching to in-house designs will reduce processor costs by about 40% to 60%, Kuo estimates. Cheaper parts equate to cost structure flexibility and, perhaps, more competitive product prices.
Finally, ARM-powered Macs will enjoy market differentiation from Windows PCs, which almost exclusively rely on processors from Intel or AMD.
Just as Apple transitioned from Samsung-manufactured ARM chips to its own TSMC-fabricated A-series system-on-chip designs for iOS devices, Mac, too, should benefit from a distinct competitive advantage in pricing and supply. By "owning the stack," the Cupertino tech giant will be able to customize its processors to define Mac's unique hardware and software capabilities, whether it be a pro-minded MacBook Pro or iMac Pro workhorse, or a consumer-oriented thin-and-light like MacBook Air.
During the transition period, Kuo estimates annual Mac shipments will increase to 25 million to 30 million units, up from the current 20 million units.
Kuo also believes Apple will formally adopt USB 4.0 technology in 2022. Finalized last year, the protocol incorporates assets from Thunderbolt 3 and supports data throughput of up to 40Gbps, power delivery of up to 100W, and backwards compatibility with older USB formats and Thunderbolt 3.
Apple has been speculated to switch its Mac platform to ARM for nearly a decade, with initial rumblings coming shortly after the company debuted its first A-series chip with iPhone 4's A4 SoC in 2010. Concrete rumors of an ARM-powered Mac arrived in February, when Kuo pegged hardware to debut in the first half of 2021. He more recently moved up that timeline, saying a MacBook with an Apple-designed CPU would reach market by the end of 2020.
Macs like Apple's 2020 MacBook Air could benefit from ARM CPUs in 2021.
In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple is moving forward with an "aggressive processor replacement strategy" that should bear fruit in the fourth quarter of 2020 or the first quarter of 2021. As part of the movement, the tech giant will bring its ARM chips to a wider selection of Mac desktops and laptops next year.
With Apple in control of chip design and manufacturing, the company will be able to introduce new Mac models at peak market demand, Kuo says. Importantly, Apple will no longer be held to the whims of Intel, which has in the past delayed development, manufacturing and shipment of promised silicon.
Further, switching to in-house designs will reduce processor costs by about 40% to 60%, Kuo estimates. Cheaper parts equate to cost structure flexibility and, perhaps, more competitive product prices.
Finally, ARM-powered Macs will enjoy market differentiation from Windows PCs, which almost exclusively rely on processors from Intel or AMD.
Just as Apple transitioned from Samsung-manufactured ARM chips to its own TSMC-fabricated A-series system-on-chip designs for iOS devices, Mac, too, should benefit from a distinct competitive advantage in pricing and supply. By "owning the stack," the Cupertino tech giant will be able to customize its processors to define Mac's unique hardware and software capabilities, whether it be a pro-minded MacBook Pro or iMac Pro workhorse, or a consumer-oriented thin-and-light like MacBook Air.
During the transition period, Kuo estimates annual Mac shipments will increase to 25 million to 30 million units, up from the current 20 million units.
Kuo also believes Apple will formally adopt USB 4.0 technology in 2022. Finalized last year, the protocol incorporates assets from Thunderbolt 3 and supports data throughput of up to 40Gbps, power delivery of up to 100W, and backwards compatibility with older USB formats and Thunderbolt 3.
Apple has been speculated to switch its Mac platform to ARM for nearly a decade, with initial rumblings coming shortly after the company debuted its first A-series chip with iPhone 4's A4 SoC in 2010. Concrete rumors of an ARM-powered Mac arrived in February, when Kuo pegged hardware to debut in the first half of 2021. He more recently moved up that timeline, saying a MacBook with an Apple-designed CPU would reach market by the end of 2020.
Comments
If Apple is shipping in 8 to 12 months, the processors, boards, basically all of components are done and they are just working on getting the mass production processes worked out now. The design is in early validation stages. The SoC has to be in pilot production now.
If there is no urgency, you can wait. ARM Macs are one thing, but the decider would be if all the software you use is also ported.
Office probably would, given how Microsoft now seems pretty proactive in that regard. But there definitely will be teething problems with respect to software.
A few hours before release, Apple found a critical bug in the ARM chip and was forced to switch back to Intel.
My prediction: It'll be like the PowerPC->Intel switch... when they come out the models with them will see a 2x bump in processor performance.
(full disclosure my close friend is a processor architect that's ex-Intel and worked with Apple on their ARMs, though he's always been rather tight lipped)
I can only speculate that for every iPhone/ iPad revision of the cpu, they have probably made a computer processor simultaneously, and getting ready for launching their ARM computers once the ARM processors and operating system has reached a certain point.
For most casual users only using the internet, Apple's apps, it'll be an easy transfer. For just about 100% of professional users relying on certain apps, it'll be tricky, I imagine. Even moving to 64-bit only apps has been forcing a lot of users away from upgrading to Catalina since they're relying on certain software. Can't help but being super curious about this though! Apple's CPU division has proven to be quite amazing after all.
I remember the days of the PPC Macs. There was a period of about five years where PowerMacs were legitimately faster than Intel PCs, although the margin was never really what the marketing claimed. And then PPC fell behind due to lack of investment, which was due to a lack of economies of scale.
But now Apple has the money, they have the economies of scale, and they have arguably the best design team in the world. Apple might now actually achieve what 90s era marketing claimed.
So... I don’t know if Apple will actually do this, but I firmly believe they are capable of doing it. It’s just a question of whether they’ll choose to do it.
For example, I think the PowerMac 6100, 7100, and 8100 were all good computers. The first x86 Macs were also good.
An x86 to ARM transition will be easier than in the past because Apple has a much stronger software foundation to support this kind of a transition. The last vestiges of the classic Mac OS have already been swept away. The Apple empire now rests entirely on software that was written from the ground up to be as hardware agnostic as possible.
Yeah, sure.