Dire predictions for Apple's supply chain, retail demand were wrong
The same sources who were wildly wrong about Apple's inability to sell iPhone X were also way off base earlier this year in fantasizing dire impacts COVID-19 would have on Apple's global supply chain, its presence in China, and the effect that retail closures and an economic downturn would have on the demand for Apple's products.
Apple's supply chain and retail demand survived COVID-19 better than pundit claims
Apple's recent introductions of its new 2020 iPad Pro and Magic Keyboard, a new line of MacBook Air models, iPhone SE, and the latest new 13 inch MacBook Pro all suggest that the company's ability to build and launch new products hasn't really been impacted by the ongoing pandemic at all.
The company's executives just noted in last week's conference call that all of the new products released in the second fiscal quarter "have all received outstanding customer response, even during these extreme circumstances."
That includes both the entry-level priced iPhone SE, Apple's cheapest new iPhone driven by its brand new A13 Bionic chip that's faster than much more expensive Androids, as well as the company's high-end new $799 or $999 4th generation iPad Pro with LiDAR and its custom-designed $350 keyboard option.
Answering a question on store traffic at retail locations that have reopened, Cook stated that "store traffic [in China] is obviously up from where it was in February, but it is not back to where it was pre the lockdown. There has been, however, more move to online."
The shift in orders from retail stores to Apple's online retail operation has occurred as the company's stores globally shut down for three weeks during Fiscal Q2, following an earlier three-week shutdown that occurred in China. Cook said of the shift to online orders, "it's pretty phenomenal actually."
He added, "retail had a quarterly record for us during the quarter. And that's despite stores being closed [] So, there is definitely a move [online]. And whether that's a permanent shift, I would hesitate to go that far, because I think people like to be out and about. They just know that now is not the time to do that."
Apple retail grew despite closed stores, as customers shifted online to remain safe
AppleInsider was unique in predicting back in February that much of Apple's retail activity would shift online as stores closed, stating that customers "aren't even very inconvenienced to make their immediate purchases over the next several days directly from Apple's online store."
That countered media narratives that assumed that nobody would be buying anything for the rest of this year, nor could they given that Apple's stores were closed and that most people were stuck at home. It's as if these bloggers all forgot that the internet existed.
In February, Japan's Nikkei Business Daily was quick to cite "four people familiar with the matter" to claim that "public health experts" in China had determined a "high risk of coronavirus infection" at Foxconn facilities where Apple assembles its products, implying that Apple would have significant troubles getting production back on track.
That confidently issued Nikkei report was immediately denied by Chinese authorities, yet was treated by bloggers as if a controversial "he said, she said" sort of disagreement rather than just another a purely false, fear-inducing report from a news agency that has repeatedly issued incorrect reports about Apple that are always attributed to "people familiar with the matter" who end up never actually being familiar with the facts at all. And yet the Nikkei rarely even acknowledges when its reports are incorrect.
There were even widespread predictions that claimed Apple's anticipated iPhone SE would be significantly delayed by the pandemic and would not ship in Q2 as expected, and that even iPhone 12 might not arrive as usual this fall. Yet even from the start, few observable facts appeared to support these claims apart from more anonymous attributions to "people [suposedly] familiar with Apple's plans."
So many words, so little journalisic value
Writing for the Wall Street Journal in March, Tripp Mickle fantastically depicted Apple as being hopelessly stuck with much of its final assembly in China, and desperately needing to move its production somewhere else-- a task which itself was portrayed as being nearly impossible.
Mickle skewered Cook as having made a terribly naive decision to move Apple's assembly to China in 1998, and depicted Apple's chief executive as uniquely positioned to be paying the price--as if virtually all major electronics manufacturing hadn't moved to Asia long before Cook had even joined Apple.
Every bit of Mickle's story was wrong. That didn't stop media hecklers from joining in the chorus that agreed with and praised his piece as 'deeply insightful' rather than simply being uninformed outrage-clickbait that presented select facts and ignored others that didn't back up its narrative.
Tripp Mickle is consistently wrong about Apple because he lacks a basic understanding of the company
Apple's supply chain and assembly partners proved to be just as resilient to crisis as AppleInsider had predicted, based on the previous performance of its exceptionally experienced Operations group. These are the same people that Mickle devalued as being less important than artistic product designers in his previous screed taking Cook to task for building Apple into a global operational powerhouse rather than remaining a quirky design office that shows the rest of the world how to craft their products.
While manufacturing in China has largely recovered, economic turmoil in the U.S. is just getting started. The same voices that once demanded that Apple bring its manufacturing "back to the U.S." are now witnessing how frail even America's far less sophisticated, lower value supply chain is for slaughtering cows and pigs.
The U.S. is struggling to open up the economy without a functional public health system, and without any real testing and tracking system in place. And despite efforts by Apple and Google to offer a secure, anonymous technical platform for widespread contact tracing, the U.S. Federal government simply isn't pursuing a comprehensive understanding of the pandemic through testing, under the hopes that the pandemic will go away on its own, even as deaths continue unabated.
Other advanced countries-- notably South Korea and Germany-- have already achieved a significant reopening of their retail and service-level industries, enabled by rapid efforts to test and trace infections. If Apple's manufacturing efforts were centered in the U.S., the company would be completely unable to compete with its rival peers including Samsung in Korea, and China's Huawei and Lenovo-- both of whom have major operations situated in Wuhan, directly at the original epicenter of the pandemic. Yet those Chinese operations have already reopened, while America remains largely shutdown in a series of controversial fights over obtaining basic medical gear.
Mickle's piece from just a few months ago now sounds laughably uninformed, as if the Wall Street Journal staff that worked to put it together has zero real understanding of the global supply chain or the capacity of China to host and support its critical links of that technically complex infrastructure, complete ignorance of the scope of Apple's operations worldwide, and a painfully naive understanding of the fragility of American manufacturing and industry, operating under an ideology of a social net that barely exists for anyone apart from large corporations that demand public bailouts whenever they're not profitable.
If Apple had somehow moved its manufacturing to the U.S., it wouldn't be anywhere near its current position as the world's most valuable PC and phone maker, capable of shrugging off a global pandemic, working around the incompetence of various local governments, and so comfortably situated that it has the ability to not only continue development of its own work but can also contribute materially toward sourcing and building needed healthcare protective gear that the U.S. itself can't line up on its own.
Apple's supply chain and retail demand survived COVID-19 better than pundit claims
Apple's recent introductions of its new 2020 iPad Pro and Magic Keyboard, a new line of MacBook Air models, iPhone SE, and the latest new 13 inch MacBook Pro all suggest that the company's ability to build and launch new products hasn't really been impacted by the ongoing pandemic at all.
The company's executives just noted in last week's conference call that all of the new products released in the second fiscal quarter "have all received outstanding customer response, even during these extreme circumstances."
That includes both the entry-level priced iPhone SE, Apple's cheapest new iPhone driven by its brand new A13 Bionic chip that's faster than much more expensive Androids, as well as the company's high-end new $799 or $999 4th generation iPad Pro with LiDAR and its custom-designed $350 keyboard option.
Retail set a new revenue record despite stores being closed
More surprising than the successful launches of its new products without the usual Apple Event to promote them was the continued growth the company experienced from its retail segment despite seeing all of its locations close in China, followed by widespread closures around the globe, which lasted for several weeks during the quarter.Answering a question on store traffic at retail locations that have reopened, Cook stated that "store traffic [in China] is obviously up from where it was in February, but it is not back to where it was pre the lockdown. There has been, however, more move to online."
The shift in orders from retail stores to Apple's online retail operation has occurred as the company's stores globally shut down for three weeks during Fiscal Q2, following an earlier three-week shutdown that occurred in China. Cook said of the shift to online orders, "it's pretty phenomenal actually."
He added, "retail had a quarterly record for us during the quarter. And that's despite stores being closed [] So, there is definitely a move [online]. And whether that's a permanent shift, I would hesitate to go that far, because I think people like to be out and about. They just know that now is not the time to do that."
Apple retail grew despite closed stores, as customers shifted online to remain safe
AppleInsider was unique in predicting back in February that much of Apple's retail activity would shift online as stores closed, stating that customers "aren't even very inconvenienced to make their immediate purchases over the next several days directly from Apple's online store."
That countered media narratives that assumed that nobody would be buying anything for the rest of this year, nor could they given that Apple's stores were closed and that most people were stuck at home. It's as if these bloggers all forgot that the internet existed.
Tech media wrong about supply chain, wrong about demand
Beyond imagining nothing but crisis for Apple's retail operations, there was also broad agreement among tech thinkers that Apple would be unable to manufacture anything in China at all, and that both its assembly partners and its supply chain would remain in a shambles for an extended period.In February, Japan's Nikkei Business Daily was quick to cite "four people familiar with the matter" to claim that "public health experts" in China had determined a "high risk of coronavirus infection" at Foxconn facilities where Apple assembles its products, implying that Apple would have significant troubles getting production back on track.
That confidently issued Nikkei report was immediately denied by Chinese authorities, yet was treated by bloggers as if a controversial "he said, she said" sort of disagreement rather than just another a purely false, fear-inducing report from a news agency that has repeatedly issued incorrect reports about Apple that are always attributed to "people familiar with the matter" who end up never actually being familiar with the facts at all. And yet the Nikkei rarely even acknowledges when its reports are incorrect.
There were even widespread predictions that claimed Apple's anticipated iPhone SE would be significantly delayed by the pandemic and would not ship in Q2 as expected, and that even iPhone 12 might not arrive as usual this fall. Yet even from the start, few observable facts appeared to support these claims apart from more anonymous attributions to "people [suposedly] familiar with Apple's plans."
So many words, so little journalisic value
Writing for the Wall Street Journal in March, Tripp Mickle fantastically depicted Apple as being hopelessly stuck with much of its final assembly in China, and desperately needing to move its production somewhere else-- a task which itself was portrayed as being nearly impossible.
Mickle skewered Cook as having made a terribly naive decision to move Apple's assembly to China in 1998, and depicted Apple's chief executive as uniquely positioned to be paying the price--as if virtually all major electronics manufacturing hadn't moved to Asia long before Cook had even joined Apple.
Every bit of Mickle's story was wrong. That didn't stop media hecklers from joining in the chorus that agreed with and praised his piece as 'deeply insightful' rather than simply being uninformed outrage-clickbait that presented select facts and ignored others that didn't back up its narrative.
Tripp Mickle is consistently wrong about Apple because he lacks a basic understanding of the company
Wrong about Apple's supply chain, wrong about demand
During Apple's fiscal Q2 earnings call, Cook appeared to indirectly call out the Wall Street Journal in stating that "our global supply chain is profoundly durable and resilient. We have shown the consistent ability to meet and manage temporary supply challenges like those caused by COVID-19."Apple's supply chain and assembly partners proved to be just as resilient to crisis as AppleInsider had predicted, based on the previous performance of its exceptionally experienced Operations group. These are the same people that Mickle devalued as being less important than artistic product designers in his previous screed taking Cook to task for building Apple into a global operational powerhouse rather than remaining a quirky design office that shows the rest of the world how to craft their products.
While manufacturing in China has largely recovered, economic turmoil in the U.S. is just getting started. The same voices that once demanded that Apple bring its manufacturing "back to the U.S." are now witnessing how frail even America's far less sophisticated, lower value supply chain is for slaughtering cows and pigs.
The U.S. is struggling to open up the economy without a functional public health system, and without any real testing and tracking system in place. And despite efforts by Apple and Google to offer a secure, anonymous technical platform for widespread contact tracing, the U.S. Federal government simply isn't pursuing a comprehensive understanding of the pandemic through testing, under the hopes that the pandemic will go away on its own, even as deaths continue unabated.
Other advanced countries-- notably South Korea and Germany-- have already achieved a significant reopening of their retail and service-level industries, enabled by rapid efforts to test and trace infections. If Apple's manufacturing efforts were centered in the U.S., the company would be completely unable to compete with its rival peers including Samsung in Korea, and China's Huawei and Lenovo-- both of whom have major operations situated in Wuhan, directly at the original epicenter of the pandemic. Yet those Chinese operations have already reopened, while America remains largely shutdown in a series of controversial fights over obtaining basic medical gear.
Mickle's piece from just a few months ago now sounds laughably uninformed, as if the Wall Street Journal staff that worked to put it together has zero real understanding of the global supply chain or the capacity of China to host and support its critical links of that technically complex infrastructure, complete ignorance of the scope of Apple's operations worldwide, and a painfully naive understanding of the fragility of American manufacturing and industry, operating under an ideology of a social net that barely exists for anyone apart from large corporations that demand public bailouts whenever they're not profitable.
If Apple had somehow moved its manufacturing to the U.S., it wouldn't be anywhere near its current position as the world's most valuable PC and phone maker, capable of shrugging off a global pandemic, working around the incompetence of various local governments, and so comfortably situated that it has the ability to not only continue development of its own work but can also contribute materially toward sourcing and building needed healthcare protective gear that the U.S. itself can't line up on its own.
Comments
Oh please. I generally like DED articles but this is just a hyperbolic political screed.
That said, I agree the system is in desperate need of reform.
Regrettably, a political class that dismantles infrastructure and government, that values superstition over science and expert opinion, is not going to do well.
Some simple things would have made a great impact...presidential degrees to force the production of alcohol, surgical masks, gloves, face shields, PPE, testing supplies would have made a huge difference and were all simple enough to do. PAPR and ventilators are tougher and could be forgiven.
And the managerial class could be faulted as well. How could be meat production be caught so flat footed? And how could Amazon be so incompetent to not have PPE for their workers?
As for my Canadian friend who survived cancer in the Canadian Healthcare system, I agree with you. Our healthcare system is designed to bankrupt families who have cancer, even those individuals with health insurance.
I also had no insurance at the time, and by choice since I'd never been sick in my life, not ever missing a day of work. Self-employed and have been for decades. I had never visited a doctor since I was 17 (that's where the sick people are), did see a dentist once a year, and other than a few illegal drugs in my younger days never take any drugs whatsoever, not even an aspirin. No aches or pains or illnesses
Until....
Because of the Affordable Care Act I was able to get insurance before being medically diagnosed. I'm very cognizant of my own body and already self-diagnosed as I always do. For a reasonable cost it covered 100% of the treatment from Moffitt Cancer Center other than $6000 in deductibles for which Moffitt has payment plans if needed. I didn't. They also have programs for those lacking any insurance at all or a method of paying for their own care. Again I didn't need that either but it was there. There were also a multitude of social services available at no further cost ranging from emotional and family support to physical therapists to nutrition assistants. I did let the nutrition nurse help and I owe her thanks for permanently changing my eating habits.
So four months after discovering it on my own I began 30 rounds of radiation (70rads in total) and three megadoses of chemo since my one of my two doctors said I was otherwise healthy and could handle it. Came thru with flying colors by following the doctors advice to the letter so that here I am today healthy and active and not bankrupt all because of the "non-functional public health system" the author claims we have.
I really have little patience for trite, pompous ideolological articles that fly in the face of objective fact. Has our health system failed you or someone you personally know? DED, your useless non-functional health system saved my life, both physically and economically. I'm sorry you've had such a horrid experience with it. If you did. And please don't start with "yeah but Trump and evil Republicans..." More disingenuous politically driven drivel. Any issues with US health care spans 5 decades of administrations. You're fortunate to live where the problem the President and Congress may present for you can be changed a few months from now. IMO I hope it does as he has been as polarizing as some on the other side who naively think they're making it all better by name-calling and accusations and half-truths aimed at those that don't currently fall in lockstep with every belief have and every word they speak. That's not a unique trait of our current President.
The incredibly stupid "us vs them" mentality that has overtaken us over particularly in the last several years is closer to the root of the problem, and you are as guilty as many of us. Please stop belittling the US and those of us who have faith things get can and will better, even tho your right to do so is protected unlike in much of the world. YOU and others with separation anxiety have become an issue just as much as the current administration.
The US is not the complete business, manufacturing and health failure you claim it is. I'm not wealthy but I'm definitely financially comfortable. I lead my own businesses and have the freedom to succeed or fail. I get to keep the majority of what I earn and spend it for any purpose I'd like. You do too. IMO no one owes me a job, or good health, or personal protection, but I still appreciate the help I've rec'd over the years and much of that directly from government resources.
And good news: If you're convinced this is just the way it's going to be and it's unacceptable to you your US citizenship allows you the option to live almost anywhere in the world that pleases you more and still have protection in the event of emergency courtesy of the US Government. They still will have your back no matter what political party is technically leading the country.
In general, and at the end of the day, there's no practical difference. The sound bites will be the biggest change. You want real change? Start with you, friends, and family, and then spend it forward. Don't wait for someone else to make you happy and secure in your life. Your life is yours, it is not mine.
Nothing against the ACA, but it was never meant to be the endgame in our Healthcare system, it was the best compromise at the time to reduce use of ER's by the uninsured. Since the legislation was signed, there has been a continuum of attempts by the Republican party to kill the ACA, albeit never just prior to an election, which is why that party were hoping that the SC case would be delayed. This is all factual.
Availability and quality of healthcare for uninsured/underinsured varies widely by state.
https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-na-pol-obamacare-repeal/
Most uninsured/underinsured Americans would see considerably worse healthcare under the Better Care Reconciliation Act (BRCA) that the Senate Majority was pushing.
We have an extremely shitty U.S. healthcare system.
You rant would have been better without this response...
"And please don't start with "yeah but Trump and evil Republicans..." More disingenuous politically driven drivel. Any issues with US health care spans 5 decades of administrations. You're fortunate to live where the problem the President and Congress may present for you can be changed a few months from now. IMO I hope it does as he has been as polarizing as some on the other side who naively think they're making it all better by name-calling and accusations and half-truths aimed at those that don't currently fall in lockstep with every belief have and every word they speak. That's not a unique trait of our current President.
The incredibly stupid "us vs them" mentality that has overtaken us over particularly in the last several years is closer to the root of the problem, and you are as guilty as many of us. Please stop belittling the US and those of us who have faith things get can and will better, even tho your right to do so is protected unlike in much of the world. YOU and others with separation anxiety have become an issue just as much as the current administration.
The US is not the complete business, manufacturing and health failure you claim it is. I'm not wealthy but I'm definitely financially comfortable. I lead my own businesses and have the freedom to succeed or fail. I get to keep the majority of what I earn and spend it for any purpose I'd like. You do too. IMO no one owes me a job, or good health, or personal protection, but I still appreciate the help I've rec'd over the years and much of that directly from government resources."
EDIT;
"Because of the Affordable Care Act I was able to get insurance before being medically diagnosed."
Actually, you would have been able to get insured even with your preexisting condition, albeit at 3x the rate. That was one of the key provisions of the legislation.
"Under the Affordable Care Act, health insurance companies can't refuse to cover you or charge you more just because you have a “pre-existing condition” — that is, a health problem you had before the date that new health coverage starts."
Yet here again,
https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/suit-challenging-aca-legally-suspect-but-threatens-loss-of-coverage-for-millions
"Lawsuit Background and Trump Administration’s Position
The state attorneys general filed their lawsuit with a Texas district court in February 2018. The crux of their argument is that the Supreme Court’s 2012 decision in National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius upheld the ACA’s individual coverage requirement under Congress’s taxing power, and the 2017 tax law zeroed out that tax penalty. Without the tax in place, they claim, the coverage requirement is unconstitutional, making the rest of the ACA also unlawful — an argument that ignores Congress’s choice to leave the ACA intact when it zeroed out the tax penalty.
From the start the Trump Administration has refused to defend the ACA, an unprecedented move that seems to have led three senior career attorneys to withdraw from the case and one to resign. But the government’s specific position on the case has changed. In June 2018 the Department of Justice (DOJ) largely agreed with the plaintiffs’ reasoning, but it asked the court to strike down not the entire law but two critical consumer protections that it said were inextricably linked to the mandate: the prohibitions on insurers denying coverage to people with pre-existing conditions (guaranteed issue) and on charging people higher premiums because of their health status (community rating). It has since endorsed striking down the entire ACA, in line with its many legislative and executive attempts to repeal or undermine it."
You probably aren't even aware that but for the ACA, you might have been medically bankrupt from your cancer treatment.center may not have been made available for me under that policy, and 100% aware that a significant time-lag would have been part and parcel too. I had insurance within days via ACA, and the 4 months to treatment was due to doctors verifying my self-diagnosis before being accepted for cancer treatment.
100% aware the ACA as written is only a partially effective stopgap. No idea why the last administration would have stopped short of implementing cost controls too. They allowed too much room to fail without constraints on the medical fees, charges insurers would be liable for covering. The cost of a band-aid and wrap after a blood test is not $36. Making my own magic Mouthwash that was one of the few cost controls I had, and gosh was it essential. Screw the band-aids, I could have brought my own LOL.
And I was 100% aware that prior to the ACA I might have been bankrupted since all personal resources would have to be exhausted before public assistance became available. Yup, I knew every bit of that.
Surprised you would sell me so short on being aware of what was entailed and what solutions I had. Have I ever left you with the impression I couldn't do proper research?
More to the point, you seem to be okay with the continued attempts at elimination of the ACA by the current administration, but I shouldn't assume that either.
Anyone who falls between the cracks is ignored by the system and not counted by stats of who needs AND is served by social services.
Result: no actual public healthcare.
I normally find DED articles to be a huge pile of unnecessary defensiveness (and I expect this one is the same; I’m only here for the conversation), but what he’s saying above about healthcare in the USA is correct. Just because some of us get social services (like myself) does not mean all of us who NEED them are receiving them (also like myself in the past).
The reason for these ridiculous limits and thresholds of income is strategic. We have an antisocial political party constantly working to sabotage the social support system under the claim of “fiscal responsibility” and “stopping fraud” (despite social services fraud being a near non-existent issue when you look at the whole picture; the myth of the “welfare queen” is exactly that: a myth).
This party knows that when a person falls through the cracks (such as a working, single mother of a disabled child, someone I know on Facebook via my former high school), it makes them angry. An angry citizen refused social services may act out against (vilify and vote against) social support systems in general (“if I can’t have it, then no one should!” - I’ve witnessed this).
Please don’t let survivorship bias fool you into thinking that everyone who needs services gets them.
Just wanted to say I'm glad you both pulled through and are doing well.