TSMC 3nm 'risk production' in 2021 paves the way to 2022 mass production

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 61
    XedXed Posts: 1,068member
    All right guys. I am officially going to eat crow. MacBooks running Apple Silicon are going to CRUSH Wintel/WinAMD machines.

    https://wccftech.com/first-apple-silicon-featuring-12-cores/

    The A13: 6 cores. The A14 is widely rumored to have 8. The MacBook chips won't be mobile chips like the A12/A13/A14. They are going to be desktop and server class chips with 12 cores. 

    We don't know the core breakdown ... but I think that having 8 efficiency cores would be ridiculous for a device that is primarily going to be plugged in (not a smartphone or tablet that is going to rely primarily on a charged battery). I think that it will be 6 performance/6 efficiency at minimum. Possibly even - my own personal hope - 8 performance and 4 efficiency, although that configuration would not be possible in a fanless device. (You COULD use the A14 in a fanless MacBook Air however). 

    OK, I was wrong. How wrong? Who knows. Ampere ARM server chips have 64-128 cores. But Apple is just getting started. Who knows how many cores their 3nm chips are going to have in 2022. 

    That being said ... the last time Qualcomm - and MediaTek - went past 8 cores (5 years ago) things went badly and they haven't tried since. (Samsung hasn't even tried to surpass 8 cores.) So Lenovo, Dell and the rest are going to be stuck with Intel and AMD no matter how badly Apple is going to boatrace them.

    And anyone who buys an Intel-based Mac instead of a 12 core Apple Silicon Mac is out of their mind. If they want to run with clearly inferior tech they should just go ahead and buy a Lenovo or Dell Windows machine. Sorry but facts are facts.
    1) Why are you only NOW onboard with the both the industry changes to ARM and Apple’s progressions over the past decade? None of this was out of left field. We don’t have specific details but Apple has left us with more than enough clues to know that this is going to be a major boon for Apple’s Mac business. What I don’t get us how anyone could ever think Apple was just going to put an iPhone SoC in a Mac and call it a day.

    2) WinPC makers will also follow suit as MS ramps up support for Windows on ARM. While you can claim (in many other of your posts) how ineffectual Apple is in the market, the facts show that they light fires in the industry. Apple’s announcement will speed up the transition and adoption for Windows support and their vendor adoption… and this is a good thing.

    3) This won’t be good for Intel, but it’s also not the end for Intel. There are many, many more years before anything Intel is doing now becomes truly obsolete. Even if they had no significant advantage for another decade they’d still be here. Transitions aren’t going to be as smooth as it will be with Apple. Just look at Windows poor shift to 64-bit. I worry more about AMD’s CPU market in the long term over Intel as AMD simply doesn’t have the revenue compared to Intel to stay competitive once the shift is in full effect.
    edited July 2020 Rayz2016tmayfastasleepwatto_cobra
  • Reply 22 of 61
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,408member
    bageljoey said:
    rob53 said:
    There has to be a limit on how small you can go before the size of the components won't work anymore. Once this limit is reached, how will processor fabrication change to improve speed and reduced power usage? 
    I always recall writing a paper for a chemistry class about computer chips (back in the late 80s). The books all stated as a fact that the laws of physics limited processors to 100nm but that 200nm was probably the practical limit. 

    I believed that even when they got to 100nm and I take everything as magic since then...
    i no longer believe there is a limit!
    Apparently the chemistry class authors had no imagination.
  • Reply 23 of 61
    entropysentropys Posts: 3,172member
    rob53 said:
    A picometer would be the next smaller processor fabrication but even at the high numbers we're talking about the width of mineral cells. There has to be a limit on how small you can go before the size of the components won't work anymore. Once this limit is reached, how will processor fabrication change to improve speed and reduced power usage? This is like the limits of processor speed. We've already reached those limits even with overclocking that can't be sustained. 
    Put the actual processor in another universe.
  • Reply 24 of 61
    Ok, so I am starting to feel old now.  I remember the 90nm “wall” from the G5 days...
    I remember being on a team designing the first gigabit Ethernet silicon at 120nm about 20 years ago, thinking we were flush against the fastest and smallest anyone had ever done. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 25 of 61
    Rayz2016Rayz2016 Posts: 6,957member
    killroy said:
    Oh Intel, where is thy sting?
    First of all this is very insensitive to religious people.
    🙄
    pscooter63fahlmanfastasleepwatto_cobra
  • Reply 26 of 61
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,457member
    BTW,

    TMSC has decided to no longer support Huawei.



    Likely due to Huawei being part of the same PRC that want's to take Taiwan back. Doesn't make sense to provide the dual use technology to do that.
    caladanianwatto_cobra
  • Reply 27 of 61
    mattinozmattinoz Posts: 1,658member
    So if this is "Risk" Production what happens to what get produced if it's good?
    I'd assume they'd use a design for something they'd make and can test and still sell if it works out.

    If they were getting good but not great yields next year would they let  Apple take the risk of a dud run?
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 28 of 61
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,935member
    tmay said:
    BTW,

    TMSC has decided to no longer support Huawei.



    Likely due to Huawei being part of the same PRC that want's to take Taiwan back. Doesn't make sense to provide the dual use technology to do that.
    No. 

    TSMC hasn't 'decided' to stop manufacturing for Huawei (one of its biggest customers). 

    TSMC is prohibited from serving Huawei because of extraterritorial U.S orders.

    Where have you been for the last month? 

    How could you have possibly missed this news? 
  • Reply 29 of 61
    DetmarDetmar Posts: 1member
    Does anyone known which company supplies the photolithography gear to TSMC for the 3nm line width? Is it ASML? 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 30 of 61
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,935member
    Detmar said:
    Does anyone known which company supplies the photolithography gear to TSMC for the 3nm line width? Is it ASML? 
    Yes. They have supplied TSMC. I would imagine that hasn't changed for 3nm. 
    edited July 2020
  • Reply 31 of 61
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 9,558member
    MacPro said:
    3nm ... come on, seriously?  Where's the 1nm version? ;)
    1nm? Pffft! Where’s the Qbits qauntum CPU. Android has had that for years.
    edited July 2020 watto_cobra
  • Reply 32 of 61
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,457member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    BTW,

    TMSC has decided to no longer support Huawei.



    Likely due to Huawei being part of the same PRC that want's to take Taiwan back. Doesn't make sense to provide the dual use technology to do that.
    No. 

    TSMC hasn't 'decided' to stop manufacturing for Huawei (one of its biggest customers). 

    TSMC is prohibited from serving Huawei because of extraterritorial U.S orders.

    Where have you been for the last month? 

    How could you have possibly missed this news? 
    Kolas Yotaka (Taiwan Presidential Office Spokesperson. Former journalist, Legislator, Cabinet Spokesperson. Personal account.)

    "Visiting Taiwan’s semiconductor and IT companies in recent days, I feel it’s safe to say the world doesn’t need to rely on Huawei to develop 5G industries"

    "Today at least three Indian soldiers were killed in the Himalayas, and another Chinese jet flew into Taiwanese airspace. War is not a game. Every life is precious. One would hope China can behave like a responsible power."


    In your mind, its always the fault of the U.S., never, ever,  of the PRC/CCP authoritarianism, am I right? Sucks to be Huawei, nurtured throughout its whole life by the CCP.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/19/china/china-ambassador-cui-tiankai-interview-intl-hnk/index.html

    You are on the wrong side of history in this, and what went down in Hong Kong is proof of that. Taiwan doesn't want to end up like Hong Kong, so of course, TSMC chose the Liberal, rules based order, of the West.

    But fear not, TMSC will begin to make inroads in India, helped by the Xi Jinping's Wolf Diplomacy, and Chinse aggression at India's border, that is leaving a very bad impression.
    edited July 2020 watto_cobra
  • Reply 33 of 61
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 9,558member
    rob53 said:
    A picometer would be the next smaller processor fabrication but even at the high numbers we're talking about the width of mineral cells. There has to be a limit on how small you can go before the size of the components won't work anymore. Once this limit is reached, how will processor fabrication change to improve speed and reduced power usage? This is like the limits of processor speed. We've already reached those limits even with overclocking that can't be sustained. 
    Right, and the patent office once stated that everything that could be invented had been invented. But you can keep a closed mind if you so choose.
    edited July 2020
  • Reply 34 of 61
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,095member
    It’s surprising that they can get to 3nm. But you’ll notice that every generation smaller than 22nm has offered smaller benefits. 2nm, isn’t that impressive when considering that other reductions offered 50% more transistors, and 50% increase in efficiency. I hope this works out on time. But I doubt we’ll really see anything much smaller. We;rhe now getting down too close to the size of the atoms themselves, we=hich are close to 0,6 no in diameter. Quantum effects are inhibiting improvements.
    edited July 2020 watto_cobra
  • Reply 35 of 61
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,095member
    mattinoz said:
    So if this is "Risk" Production what happens to what get produced if it's good?
    I'd assume they'd use a design for something they'd make and can test and still sell if it works out.

    If they were getting good but not great yields next year would they let  Apple take the risk of a dud run?
    Risk production is simply the first of a number of runs used to perfect the process. Don go by what it’s called. Apple will use it when TSMC says it’s ready, and both agree on the cost per chip, and the speed of production.
    jony0watto_cobra
  • Reply 36 of 61
    killroy said:
    killroy said:
    Oh Intel, where is thy sting?
    First of all this is very insensitive to religious people. Second, I do not understand how Intel - who worked hard to maintain a great relationship with Apple, provided outstanding driver support and never got involved in lawsuits or IP concerns with Apple as tons of other Apple suppliers do - is now regarded as "the enemy" whose demise Apple fans are rooting for. I can get the animus against Microsoft, Google, Samsung and Qualcomm. While I disagree with it I at least GET it. But Intel has done NOTHING but be as good a partner to Apple as they were capable of. Stuff like this is why so many people hate Apple fans with a passion.
    Intel missed the 7nm mark and still is marketing chips with security flaws. 7nm won't hit the market till sometime in 2021. So is Apple to wait?
    Huh? Don't shadowbox and tilt at windmills. 


    That's a very politically insensitive remark.  Tilting at windmills refers to Don Quixote, who was clearly suffering from mental trauma.
    fahlmanfastasleepSpamSandwichwatto_cobra
  • Reply 37 of 61
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,456member
    All right guys. I am officially going to eat crow. MacBooks running Apple Silicon are going to CRUSH Wintel/WinAMD machines.

    https://wccftech.com/first-apple-silicon-featuring-12-cores/

    The A13: 6 cores. The A14 is widely rumored to have 8. The MacBook chips won't be mobile chips like the A12/A13/A14. They are going to be desktop and server class chips with 12 cores. 

    We don't know the core breakdown ...

    A 12 core SOC, 8 high performance and 4 efficiency, has been rumored since April: 

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/apple-aims-to-sell-macs-with-its-own-chips-starting-in-2021?utm_medium=social&utm_content=tech&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&cmpid==socialflow-twitter-tech


    muthuk_vanalingamjony0watto_cobra
  • Reply 38 of 61
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,935member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    BTW,

    TMSC has decided to no longer support Huawei.



    Likely due to Huawei being part of the same PRC that want's to take Taiwan back. Doesn't make sense to provide the dual use technology to do that.
    No. 

    TSMC hasn't 'decided' to stop manufacturing for Huawei (one of its biggest customers). 

    TSMC is prohibited from serving Huawei because of extraterritorial U.S orders.

    Where have you been for the last month? 

    How could you have possibly missed this news? 
    Kolas Yotaka (Taiwan Presidential Office Spokesperson. Former journalist, Legislator, Cabinet Spokesperson. Personal account.)

    "Visiting Taiwan’s semiconductor and IT companies in recent days, I feel it’s safe to say the world doesn’t need to rely on Huawei to develop 5G industries"

    "Today at least three Indian soldiers were killed in the Himalayas, and another Chinese jet flew into Taiwanese airspace. War is not a game. Every life is precious. One would hope China can behave like a responsible power."


    In your mind, its always the fault of the U.S., never, ever,  of the PRC/CCP authoritarianism, am I right? Sucks to be Huawei, nurtured throughout its whole life by the CCP.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/19/china/china-ambassador-cui-tiankai-interview-intl-hnk/index.html

    You are on the wrong side of history in this, and what went down in Hong Kong is proof of that. Taiwan doesn't want to end up like Hong Kong, so of course, TSMC chose the Liberal, rules based order, of the West.

    But fear not, TMSC will begin to make inroads in India, helped by the Xi Jinping's Wolf Diplomacy, and Chinse aggression at India's border, that is leaving a very bad impression.
    Let it go! 

    None of that hasn't even the slightest to do with what you claimed, nor my reply it. 




  • Reply 39 of 61
    entropys said:
    rob53 said:
    A picometer would be the next smaller processor fabrication but even at the high numbers we're talking about the width of mineral cells. There has to be a limit on how small you can go before the size of the components won't work anymore. Once this limit is reached, how will processor fabrication change to improve speed and reduced power usage? This is like the limits of processor speed. We've already reached those limits even with overclocking that can't be sustained. 
    Put the actual processor in another universe.

    Reminds me of an excellent short story by Isaac Asimov: https://www.multivax.com/last_question.html

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 40 of 61
    XedXed Posts: 1,068member
    killroy said:
    killroy said:
    Oh Intel, where is thy sting?
    First of all this is very insensitive to religious people. Second, I do not understand how Intel - who worked hard to maintain a great relationship with Apple, provided outstanding driver support and never got involved in lawsuits or IP concerns with Apple as tons of other Apple suppliers do - is now regarded as "the enemy" whose demise Apple fans are rooting for. I can get the animus against Microsoft, Google, Samsung and Qualcomm. While I disagree with it I at least GET it. But Intel has done NOTHING but be as good a partner to Apple as they were capable of. Stuff like this is why so many people hate Apple fans with a passion.
    Intel missed the 7nm mark and still is marketing chips with security flaws. 7nm won't hit the market till sometime in 2021. So is Apple to wait?
    Huh? Don't shadowbox and tilt at windmills. 


    That's a very politically insensitive remark.  Tilting at windmills refers to Don Quixote, who was clearly suffering from mental trauma.
    He’s clearly opened the floodgates with his claim that a partial quote from the Bible is somehow insensitive to Christians, but I’d argue that the phrase tilting at windmills is far enough removed from its etymology that it doesn’t need to refer to mental health. 

    Today it’s commonly used to refer to attacking against an unimportant foe. The funny thing about his post is that he’s the one tilting at the proverbial windmill.
    watto_cobra
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