Only 10% of analyst's survey respondents plan to buy an 'iPhone 12' in 2020

Posted:
in General Discussion edited October 2020
A new Piper Sandler survey indicates that only 10% of respondents plan to buy a new "iPhone 12" model in fall or winter 2020, suggesting that consumers are "hunkering down" heading into the launch.

Credit: Andrew O'Hara, AppleInsider
Credit: Andrew O'Hara, AppleInsider


In a research note seen by AppleInsider, lead analyst Harsh Kumar details the results of a survey of about 1,000 Americans that the investment bank conducted in late September 2020.

Per the results, only about 10% of that number said that they expect to buy a new iPhone or upgrade to a 5G-equipped "iPhone 12" model in the latter half of 2020. As Kumar notes, that's well below a previous survey that suggested 23% of respondents planned to upgrade but may be attributable to the global coronavirus health crisis.

"We are a bit surprised by the lower than expected demand given the cellular transition, but the global pandemic may be putting pressure on spending patterns this fall/winter," Kumar writes.

Of those that do plan to upgrade by the end of 2020, about half said they would do so for the 5G capabilities of the new device. The other half said they simply needed to upgrade their devices.

Other details revealed in the survey include that the average age of a current iPhone is about 2.3 years. Respondents also said that they expect the average price of a mid-range iPhone 5G to be about $1,015 -- slightly lower than the average mid-range price of $1,068 over the last three years.

Piper Sandler also asked its participants about other Apple devices. Here's what they said.

  • About a quarter of respondents said that they saw value in the new Apple Watch Series 6, but only 8% said they'd buy one.

  • 12% of those surveyed said that the lower-priced Apple Watch SE makes it more likely that they'll buy an Apple wearable.

  • Kumar says that similar pandemic-related budget constraints could be causing the "low interest level" for the Apple Watch.

  • About 15% of respondants said that they expect to buy a new iPad soon due to a "recent lifestyle change."

As far as methodology, the bank surveyed 1,000 Americans in late September 2020. The average age of respondents was 47, and among those surveyed, 52% were male and 48% were female. The bank says 33% were in the South; 23% were in the West; 29% were in the Midwest; and 14% were in the Northeast.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 20
    There are, what, 200 million adults in the US?  So 10% of that is 20 millions iPhone 12 sales in the US alone.  Pretty good.  If you believe these surveys.
    mwhitewatto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 20
    Ever heared of Covid-19? People lost their jobs and have no/less income. Buying an iPhone is the last thing to worry about. 
  • Reply 3 of 20
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,013member
    And what the survey didn’t say was that all of the “respondents” were Android users.  o:)
    mwhitewatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 20
     The bank says 33% were in the South; 23% were in the West; 29% were in the Midwest; and 14% were in the Northeast.”

    Hmmm. 33% in the South and only 14% in the Northeast? Seems the survey is skewed. 
    GeorgeBMac
  • Reply 5 of 20
    My iPhone 3GS was a significant upgrade over my original iPhone.
    My iPhone 4S was a significant upgrade over my 3GS.
    My iPhone 6 was a significant upgrade over my 4S.
    My iPhone 6s Plus was a significant upgrade over my 6.
    My iPhone Xs Max was a less significant upgrade over my 6s Plus.
    I haven't been even remotely tempted by any iPhone 11 and don't expect to be tempted by the iPhone 12, either. To me, the performance and capability of the Xs Max still exceeds my needs and wants and I can't justify upgrading - it's like buying a 700+ horsepower sports car to commute 5 miles to work on a 45 MPH road. :smile:  
    cat52
  • Reply 6 of 20
    Relevant: 1) 2020 is almost over. 2) 5G Network availability and performance unknowns. 3) People are at home using wifi and their new MacBooks and iPads anyways

    Check again after the new year. Then again when people know more about 5G. Then again when people start getting out of the house more. 
    zroger73watto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 20
    Does anyone believes in surveys or polls anymore?

    These surveys have the same credibility of the polls back in 2016 were Hillary was going to win. 
    cat52watto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 20
    Apple_Bar said:
    Does anyone believes in surveys or polls anymore?

    These surveys have the same credibility of the polls back in 2016 were Hillary was going to win. 
    Well, Hillary did win more popular votes. :neutral: 
    Rayz2016
  • Reply 9 of 20
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    It would be foolish to hold off this year.
    Apple still tends to go in 2 year cycles with a major upgrade the first year and internal, technical improvements the second year.

    By buying the first year of a major upgrade you get to enjoy the upgrades longer than somebody who holds out.   And this year is a major upgrade year:
    -- 5G
    -- Improved screens (especially in the base models)
    -- Improved cameras
    -- A new, smaller but modern phone
    -- Significantly improved processor (going to 5nm)

    This indifference may change this afternoon after the upgrades become better understood.
    dewmewatto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 20
    dewmedewme Posts: 4,377member
    Captain Obvious is reporting that consumer confidence has dipped since the onset of the pandemic and is likely suppressing discretionary spending and increasing replacement intervals. This could change in the coming months, for better or for worse.

    The bottom line is that Apple is doing everything within its power and control to present the most compelling new products to market that it is able to deliver under the current circumstances. Apple cannot control macro economic factors that influence consumer confidence. All they can do is make their new product/service offerings as highly desirable and compelling as possible, so if or when the economy rebounds and consumer confidence improves they have what customers want to buy available for sale. Apple could not afford to sit this year out, no matter how challenging it has turned out to be. 

    I personally don't think the 5G factor is going to move the needle much at all this year, especially if a fair number of current iPhone owners already believe they have 5G and outside of a handful of gadget geeks who post 5G performance benchmarks because they have access to a 5G micro-zone, the value of 5G isn't percolating at a grassroots level across regular user community. 

    Finally, we've never had to compare pre-pandemic numbers to still-in-a-hot-pandemic numbers before so maybe a 10% "plan to buy" result from this particular group of survey participants is in-fact a favorable indicator under the current circumstances. We really don't know, Apple doesn't know, but they do know what they have to do to stay on top of their product offerings, so they are moving full speed ahead. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 20
    5G means nothing to me. I'm still getting the same speeds at home and at the office that I got with my iPhone 3GS. Nothing improved from 3G > 4G > LTE in these areas.
  • Reply 12 of 20
    DAalsethDAalseth Posts: 2,182member
    We got iPhone 11s a year ago. Call me when the iPhone 15 is coming out.
    bonobob
  • Reply 13 of 20
    zroger73 said:
    Apple_Bar said:
    Does anyone believes in surveys or polls anymore?

    These surveys have the same credibility of the polls back in 2016 were Hillary was going to win. 
    Well, Hillary did win more popular votes. :neutral: 
    The polls were about who will win the US Presidential Election not about popular votes. 

    Popular votes are only a reminder of how screwed up is the US election system. 
    jony0cat52watto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 20
    This survey tells me that they’re just confirming that the pandemic causes people to be more economically responsible. It’s a waste of resources. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 15 of 20
    roakeroake Posts: 790member
    They didn’t poll me.  I’m going to buy one.
    tommikelewatto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 20
    dutchlord said:
    Ever heared of Covid-19? People lost their jobs and have no/less income. Buying an iPhone is the last thing to worry about. 
    No, I never "heared" of Covid-19, but I have heard of it.

    Your logic, not unsupported, says buying a new iPhone is the last thing to worry about right now for a lot of people and you are not wrong. However, your assumption that logic will guide enough people to have a heavy impact on holiday shopping is quite weak. I don't think you know too much about consumer behavior.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 20

    zroger73 said:
    My iPhone 3GS was a significant upgrade over my original iPhone.
    My iPhone 4S was a significant upgrade over my 3GS.
    My iPhone 6 was a significant upgrade over my 4S.
    My iPhone 6s Plus was a significant upgrade over my 6.
    My iPhone Xs Max was a less significant upgrade over my 6s Plus.
    I haven't been even remotely tempted by any iPhone 11 and don't expect to be tempted by the iPhone 12, either. To me, the performance and capability of the Xs Max still exceeds my needs and wants and I can't justify upgrading - it's like buying a 700+ horsepower sports car to commute 5 miles to work on a 45 MPH road. :smile:  
    I am wondering if that is code for you probably can't it afford it right now or can and are not comfortable given the economic destruction Trump has reaped upon the American economy. I hope it is a comfort call for you.

    I fully understand and don't disagree about excess horsepower, but when you say you are using a Xs Max and IPhone 12/12 Pro is not a significant upgrade, you lose me.

    I am trading in my X. Three years on my X is enough and the upgrade is very significant. I like lots of horsepower whether I am going three miles to the market or 150 miles across the alley to see my friends ... a need for speed. I like fast, powerful cars and fast, powerful phones. I am fortunate I can afford them and also lucky (not really luck) my finances are not very affected by the current conditions making it tough for a lot of people.

    Make sure you vote. No excuses.


    watto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 20

    This survey tells me that they’re just confirming that the pandemic causes people to be more economically responsible. It’s a waste of resources. 
    What the details of the survey should tell is it is a little value and relying on it would be foolish. Did you look at the data, study criteria and survey design?

    62% of the respondents are from geographic areas containing less the 33% of the country's population and only two of the country's top 10 economic centers. I wouldn't be too influenced or draw any conclusions based on this survey.

    Harsh Kumar ( the analyst and author of the report) still maintains a strong buy rating on Apple with a share price target more than 10% higher than yesterday's close price. Mr. Kumar says he is surprised. He does have a record, when it comes to Apple, of saying one thing in his public reports, but doing something very different when it comes to guiding his clients.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 20
    After watching the event, I believe the camera— both hardware and computational software and the use of every specialized and general processor in Apple Silicon— is the biggest selling point. 

    I’m a recently retired NCAA Div I sports and event photographer with top-end equipment, and can honestly say I’ve wowed pro-colleagues w iPhone 11Pro photos this past year.  

    The iPhone12 new camera systems are a big advance over last year including actual shooting video in DolbyVision as well as editing, and ProRAW photos that use computational improvement as instructions, i.e. not baked into a jpeg, but full 10-bit RAW info to edit. 

    Remember, the best camera is the one you have with you. 

    This is good for my technophobe friends to take quite well exposed photos without any knowledge. The composition is what remains for skill.
     
    For pros like me, the dynamic range exceeds my $7,000 camera, even better than my DSLR HDR 3-exposure photos.  (Note, Canon is working on sensor with dynamic range of 20 stops ( current sensors on DSLRs range from 12 to 15 stops), ostensibly for a top of the line new R1 camera, later in 2021).

    So sensor size and interchangeable lenses are mostly what lack from DSLRs among other features.  Sensor size gap is being solved by micro-zone computational adjustments based on machine learning and the combining of up to approx. 8 photos combined to one final photo, with preview of result on screen while composing. And that’s in iPhone 11— the 12 is much better per specs and explanations in today’s event.
    cat52GeorgeBMacwatto_cobra
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