Lead times suggest Pacific Blue iPhone 12 Pro models are most popular

AppleInsiderAppleInsider
Posted:
in General Discussion
A check of iPhone pre-order lead times on Friday suggests that the iPhone 12 Pro models appear to be Apple's most popular in 2020, according to Loup Ventures.

Credit: Andrew O'Hara, AppleInsider
Credit: Andrew O'Hara, AppleInsider


In a short note published Friday, Gene Munster and David Stokman assert that lead times for the iPhone 12 mini and iPhone 12 Pro Max have "essentially mirrored" the two 2020 iPhone models released in October.

"Importantly, we were not expecting changes to lead times this morning given supply for the two most recent iPhones is likely greater than the supply for the two iPhones that began pre-orders on Oct. 16th," the duo wrote.

However, iPhone 12 Pro Max and iPhone 12 mini delivery dates began slipping soon after pre-orders became available at 5 a.m. Pacific (8 a.m. Eastern).

Lead times for the larger 6.7-inch model clocked in around seven to 17 days depending on color, capacity, and carrier. As of Friday morning, the iPhone 12 mini consistently showed an original Nov. 13 delivery date for all sizes and models.

That essentially mirrors what occurred when pre-orders for the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro went live three weeks prior. Depending on specific variant, the iPhone 12 Pro lead times slipped from seven to 10 days to one to two weeks. Lead times for the iPhone 12 consistently stuck with an initial Oct. 23 delivery date.

As a takeaway, Munster and Stokman suggest that the iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max in Pacific Blue with 128GB of storage ranked as Apple's most popular handset configurations thus far.

Based on the early data, Loup Ventures maintains its 2021 iPhone revenue growth estimate of 15%, and is still modeling an average selling price of $818 for the 2020 Apple lineup.

Loup Ventures cautions that connecting lead times to demand is "more art than science," and Apple watchers still don't have visibility into actual iPhone supply. Still, Munster and Stokman note that extended delivery dates have historically been a decent indicator of demand.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 20
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 18,016member
    I ordered a Pro Max pacific blue AT&T with 256 GB. I ordered it mid morning it says it is arriving on November 13. 
    williamlondonronn
  • Reply 2 of 20
    mike1mike1 Posts: 3,280member
    Lead times are only one data point in making assumptions about which is most popular.
    It is very conceivable that the graphite is the most popular, but pacific blue sold more than apple predicted and therefore a little shorter in supply.
    Just saying. Easy to manipulate a single data point to push a narrative.
    applguywilliamlondonchiaRayz2016seanj
  • Reply 3 of 20
    dave marshdave marsh Posts: 349member
    Yeah, I also got the iPhone 12 Pro in Pacific Blue.  Nice upgrade from my iPhone X.  Noticeably “peppier.”
    williamlondon
  • Reply 4 of 20
    seanismorrisseanismorris Posts: 1,624member
    I’ve never cared about the color of iPads and iPhones, but that’s changing.  The durability of the new generation nearly makes cases and screen protectors irrelevant.

    I like the new (old) design and colors.
    JWSC
  • Reply 5 of 20
    jumpingcocojumpingcoco Posts: 104member
    glad that I decided to wake up at 5 a.m. to place my order, delivery date quickly pushed back to late Nov.
  • Reply 6 of 20
    dewmedewme Posts: 5,356member
    seanismorris said:
    I’ve never cared about the color of iPads and iPhones, but that’s changing.  The durability of the new generation nearly makes cases and screen protectors irrelevant.

    I like the new (old) design and colors.
    You can still get one of Apple’s clear MagSafe cases for the 12 Pro/Pro Max so you’re not giving up completely on the added protection a case provides. 
  • Reply 7 of 20
    JapheyJaphey Posts: 1,767member
    mike1 said:
    Lead times are only one data point in making assumptions about which is most popular.
    It is very conceivable that the graphite is the most popular, but pacific blue sold more than apple predicted and therefore a little shorter in supply.
    Just saying. Easy to manipulate a single data point to push a narrative.
    Exactly. 
    “more art than science” is Munster-speak for “pulled it out of his ass”. And the $818 ASP  he randomly picked suggests, in fact, that the lower price models are more popular. Stopped paying attention to anything he says years ago...I don’t even know why I’m responding. 
    williamlondonRayz2016
  • Reply 8 of 20
    flydogflydog Posts: 1,123member
    mike1 said:
    Lead times are only one data point in making assumptions about which is most popular.
    It is very conceivable that the graphite is the most popular, but pacific blue sold more than apple predicted and therefore a little shorter in supply.
    Just saying. Easy to manipulate a single data point to push a narrative.
    Apple has been selling other pacific blue models for weeks, and it this point knows exactly the popularity of the colors relative to reach other.   
    JWSCronn
  • Reply 9 of 20
    viclauyycviclauyyc Posts: 849member
    I just placed my iPhone 12 Max blue 256 order in Costco, Canada, around 6pm MT. When I check apple stop app, it still shows I can still grab one in apple store around nov 13.

  • Reply 10 of 20
    mike1mike1 Posts: 3,280member
    flydog said:
    mike1 said:
    Lead times are only one data point in making assumptions about which is most popular.
    It is very conceivable that the graphite is the most popular, but pacific blue sold more than apple predicted and therefore a little shorter in supply.
    Just saying. Easy to manipulate a single data point to push a narrative.
    Apple has been selling other pacific blue models for weeks, and it this point knows exactly the popularity of the colors relative to reach other.   
    Apple knows. Nobody else does yet. 
    Rayz2016
  • Reply 11 of 20
    dedgeckodedgecko Posts: 169member
    Actually, it just means Apple didn’t anticipate well enough for the demand of these particular models. If 100 people want it, but Apple made 5 and it took X number of weeks to deliver one of them... that does not compare well to the 100000 of the regular iPhone 12 that Apple cranks out every two days.  It’s not even a valid data point for anything other than - Apple is supply constrained for whatever reason on those models.

    Apple will tell us sometime next quarter or next year what is the most popular model. Just like they do every years. 
    williamlondonmike1
  • Reply 12 of 20
    wdowellwdowell Posts: 226member
    Wake up guys! 

    Why does everybody assume that Apple  has produced than equal number of iPhones in each colour?  

    We have no idea which is the most popular as we don’t know how many were made. End of!
    mike1cornchip
  • Reply 13 of 20
    zeus423zeus423 Posts: 240member
    Who would have thought that blue was a popular color?
    nethan9
  • Reply 14 of 20
    nethan9nethan9 Posts: 20member
    zeus423 said:
    Who would have thought that blue was a popular color?
    well, Samsung, Xiaomi, Huawei like long time ago
  • Reply 15 of 20
    eriamjheriamjh Posts: 1,642member
    I wanted the blue or the red available on the iPhone Pro or 12 Plain, but the pacific blue was the next best thing.   
  • Reply 16 of 20
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 12,874member
    I have it. IMO it's less blue IRL...it's basically a dark gray that is kinda blue in good light. In this way it's very similar to my Midnight Green last year, basically gray with a tint in the right light. I agree w/ Gruber's podcast guest Jason Snell, the pro colors are pretty timid, I wish they were bolder. 

    I did get $600+ for my 11 Pro on ebay. Others went for 700+, but this was better than the $450 trade-in, and for one year of use it cost me $400 (1000-600), or $33/mo. That's less than the monthly payments for a two-year payment plan. iPhones are a solid resale.
    ronnJapheycornchip
  • Reply 17 of 20
    MustSeeUHDTVMustSeeUHDTV Posts: 304member
    I had always gone dark like space grey with my iPhones and Apple Watches (except on my iPhone 3G which was white). Never like the previous Gold versions because they were more pink than gold. This year is seems different to me and I liked the Gold version. So I got 12 Pro 256 in Gold.
  • Reply 18 of 20
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    It’s a nice “Blue Steel”™ color. Classic.
    mike1
  • Reply 19 of 20
    mike1mike1 Posts: 3,280member
    SpamSandwich said:
    It’s a nice “Blue Steel”™ color. Classic.

    Agreed. I want a car in this color.
    If the Pro was the same blue as the 12, I would have gone with the Graphite.
  • Reply 20 of 20
    cornchipcornchip Posts: 1,949member
    Or maybe it’s the least popular model with slightly-higher-than-expected demand?

    either way, I’m a hardline black guy, so I won’t be effin’ about with anything else, but I’m sure other colors will sell great too.
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