Initial demand for iPhone 12 Pro Max appears higher than iPhone 12 mini

AppleInsider · November 9, 2020 3:15PM

Initial demand for the iPhone 12 Pro Max and iPhone 12 mini appears to be similar to the two models released in October, with the larger handset seeing longer lead times, according to JP Morgan.

Credit: Andrew O'Hara, AppleInsider

In an iPhone Availability Tracker note seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan's Samik Chatterjee notes that pre-order lead times for the iPhone 12 mini and iPhone 12 Pro Max, which became available for pre-order on Friday, started off by tracking at 12 days and 22 days, respectively.

That's "quite similar" to delivery times for the previous two iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro models released on Oct 23. Current lead times are improving for the iPhone 12, while remaining stable for the seemingly more popular iPhone 12 Pro.

Delivery dates for the iPhone 12 have dropped to eight days in week four of availability, down from 10 days in week three. For the iPhone 12 Pro, aggregate lead times remain at about 24 days, pretty stable from the previous week's times of 23 days.

For in-store pickup in the U.S., lead times for the smallest and largest iPhone 12 models stood at about seven days. The iPhone 12 is still available for in-store pickup with a one-day turnaround time, while the iPhone 12 Pro is still unavailable for pickup.

In China, lead times actually expanded for the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro compared to the previous week. The iPhone 12 mini and iPhone 12 Pro Max remain unavailable in that region as of Nov. 9.

For German consumers, delivery times moderated for the iPhone 12 model and remained about the same for the iPhone 12 Pro. For the recently released mini and Pro Max models, in-store pickup times clocked in at eight days.

It's a similar story in the U.K., which tracked delivery times for the newer iPhone 12 mini and iPhone 12 Pro Max are nine and 20 days, respectively. Both of those models were unavailable for in-store pickup as of Nov. 9.

The iPhone 12 Pro Max and iPhone 12 mini officially launch on Friday, Nov. 13, with the first shipments arriving on customer doorsteps and brick-and-mortar stores that day.

sellerington · November 9, 2020 4:26PM

I’d expect the Mini to be more popular? Or are all those people who claimed they wanted an iPhone sized like an iPhone 5 just all talk?

M68000 · November 9, 2020 4:31PM

I have coworker that may upgrade from iPhone 7 this year. They think they want the mini but want to see it in store before getting it. Perhaps others feel that way.

Eric_WVGG · November 9, 2020 5:12PM

I just watched a handful of the early YouTube reviews. People consistently say, "wow, this feels amazing in your hand." The absence of that in-person wow factor is definitely going to inhibit sales for a while.

Also, between the Pro and the Mini, the Pro is definitely more of an enthusiast, early-adopter kind of device. The initials sales of the 10S and 10S Max were higher than the XR, but in the long run the XR sold far more units; no reason not to expect a similar pattern.

davgreg · November 9, 2020 5:29PM

My BTO iPhone 12 Pro moved up by about 2 weeks in delivery over the weekend. From around Thanksgiving to late this week.
make of that what you will. Ordered last Thursday.

maltz · November 9, 2020 6:07PM

So, another article here alluded to this, but... comparing lead times between devices has NOTHING to do with relative demand unless you assume that Apple is making the same number of each flavor - which is almost certainly not the case. Without manufacturing data, you cannot infer popularity based solely on lead time. You can perhaps infer how accurately Apple predicted popularity of each version, but even on that measure, Apple's demand projections and their actual manufacturing numbers may diverge for a number of reasons - if device margin plays a role in their manufacturing priorities, for example.

sflocal · November 9, 2020 7:26PM

I was actually a little turned-off by the shiny stainless steel on the Pro's. It made the phone look a little tacky for my taste. I much preferred the brushed aluminum of the non-Pro models. First world problems of course. I'm going to keep it in a case anyways so it's moot.

The Gold looks really, really tacky with that shiny perimeter. It has a very high bling-factor that I suppose will be attractive to some market segment. Definitely not for me.

JWSC · November 9, 2020 7:57PM

Preordered the 12 Pro Max (for the camera) and the Mini (for the small form factor) on Friday.

entropys · November 9, 2020 8:36PM

sellerington said:

I’d expect the Mini to be more popular? Or are all those people who claimed they wanted an iPhone sized like an iPhone 5 just all talk?

We know nothing about the existing production volumes of the mini and the max, or how fast each can be manufactured. I also expect the customers for each are quite different in how they approach purchasing a new iPhone.

In my case I will be getting a mini and have not preordered. I will be purchasing through work and have to wait until it is on the work catalogue.

cornchip · November 10, 2020 1:42AM

sellerington said:

I’d expect the Mini to be more popular? Or are all those people who claimed they wanted an iPhone sized like an iPhone 5 just all talk?

I’d 100% get if I could afford. Very likely will get one second hand 2021 or 2022.

mr. h · November 10, 2020 1:45AM

maltz said:

So, another article here alluded to this, but... comparing lead times between devices has NOTHING to do with relative demand unless you assume that Apple is making the same number of each flavor - which is almost certainly not the case. Without manufacturing data, you cannot infer popularity based solely on lead time. You can perhaps infer how accurately Apple predicted popularity of each version, but even on that measure, Apple's demand projections and their actual manufacturing numbers may diverge for a number of reasons - if device margin plays a role in their manufacturing priorities, for example.

Perfect post, thank you. I came here to say the same thing, but you said it better than I was thinking it.

RoxTar · November 10, 2020 1:54AM

Pre-ordered the mini. Since the 6plus, 8plus, and 11 (my work phone), I'm over larger phones. I can't wait for the compact size that is easily front-pocket friendly.

exceptionhandler · November 12, 2020 4:15PM

I’ve preordered the mini as well; I really dislike the larger phone movement.

Since the transition from 4S to 5S went well, I thought the transition from 5S to 7 would be ok. All I can say is, I’m soooo ready for a smaller phone. I’ve held out upgrading in hopes of one, and it’s finally here. I also wanted the pro cameras, but had to compromise, unfortunately. I’m voting with my wallet and letting Apple know there is a market for smaller phones. Maybe eventually there will be a pro mini.

Initial demand for iPhone 12 Pro Max appears higher than iPhone 12 mini

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