Apple could hit $3T market cap by 2022, says analyst

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2021
Continuing iPhone 12 demand is exceeding Wedbush's most bullish expectations, with the firm predicting that a $3 trillion Apple market capitalization can be hit by mid-2022.

Credit: Andrew O'Hara, AppleInsider
Credit: Andrew O'Hara, AppleInsider


In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, lead analyst Daniel Ives writes that recent supply chain checks in Asia continue to be "incrementally bullish" around iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro demand. The current trajectory is higher than Ives' previous bull case scenario for the December quarter.

Based on those checks, Ives believes the supply chain saw iPhone unit builds in the low to mid 90 million range. In December, Ives forecast a number around 80 million with a possibility of builds in the mid-80 million range.

The current iPhone unit build data represents a 35% increase over Wedbush's and Wall Street's initial forecasts, Ives added.

In the March quarter, Ives predicts total iPhones shipped ticked up 5% over the past few weeks and are now in the 60 million to 70 million range. For the June quarter, initial builds are in the low 40 million range with a potential upward bias.

"We have not seen a launch trajectory uptrend such as this in a number of years for Apple and the only iPhone trajectory similar would be the iPhone 6 in 2014 based on our analysis," Ives wrote.

The analyst believes that Apple has the potential to ship upward of 240 million units in 2021, with the possibility that it could hit an "eye popping" 250 million units. That's well above Wall Street's current forecast of 218 million units.

Wedbush continues to model that 350 million out of 950 million iPhone units globally are in the upgrade window.

Ives adds that China is still a centerpiece of the ongoing "5G supercycle" with 20% of upgrades expected to come from the region. The analyst says he is seeing positive trends from China heading into 2021.

"In a nutshell, while services growth remains the key to the Apple re-rating story over the past six months, the hearts and lungs of the Apple growth story are built around iPhone installed base upgrades," Ives writes.

The analyst is maintaining his 12-month price target of $160, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation on Wedbush's 2022 AAPL fiscal year estimate. That breaks down to a 15x multiple on Services at $1.1 trillion and a 6.5x multiple on the rest of Apple's hardware business at $1.7 trillion.

The analyst has also bumped his bull case to $200, which results from raising those 2022 estimates to $1.3 trillion for Services and $2.2 trillion for Apple's hardware business. The bull case, Ives notes, would result in a $3 trillion market valuation in the next 12 to 18 months.

Shares of AAPL are currently trading at $130.76 on Wednesday morning, up 1.54% in intraday trading.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 18
    Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire if and when he has a SpaceX IPO.
  • Reply 2 of 18
    cg27cg27 Posts: 169member
    Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire if and when he has a SpaceX IPO.
    And that crazy, fearless, bad ass engineer would deserve it 😊
    SpamSandwich
  • Reply 3 of 18
    cg27 said:
    Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire if and when he has a SpaceX IPO.
    And that crazy, fearless, bad ass engineer would deserve it 😊
    He’s the definition of a big picture risk taker.
  • Reply 4 of 18
    cg27cg27 Posts: 169member
    cg27 said:
    Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire if and when he has a SpaceX IPO.
    And that crazy, fearless, bad ass engineer would deserve it 😊

    He’s the definition of a big picture risk taker.
    Indeed, he and the other high profile engineers founding and running the most powerful and innovative corporations make the so-called big shots of Hollywood and Wall Street look like lame schmucks
  • Reply 5 of 18
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,719member
    cg27 said:
    cg27 said:
    Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire if and when he has a SpaceX IPO.
    And that crazy, fearless, bad ass engineer would deserve it 😊

    He’s the definition of a big picture risk taker.
    Indeed, he and the other high profile engineers founding and running the most powerful and innovative corporations make the so-called big shots of Hollywood and Wall Street look like lame schmucks
    Elon is not an engineer, and for the record, the bubble that Elon is riding will burst sooner than later. 

    http://www.asymco.com/2021/01/13/the-entrants-guide-to-automotive-industry-updated/

    "That means that either there will be twice as many cars as we have now or they will be twice as expensive or they will be twice as profitable. And all that will happen really soon. We can’t have twice the cars since there will be nowhere to park them. We can’t double the price unless we double our wealth. We can’t make them twice as profitable unless we disable competitive forces and change the production system.

    Or, it could be that half the assets (all the other automakers) are worthless."

    Bubble. Burst. Soon.

    buckalecJanNLSamsonikk
  • Reply 6 of 18
    Often forgotten - Tesla was founded by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Musk entered the arena the following year at the financing stage.
    roundaboutnowwatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 18
    buckalec said:
    Often forgotten - Tesla was founded by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Musk entered the arena the following year at the financing stage.
    And Steve Jobs didn’t invent the computer, but he was smart enough and hungry enough to make his company and products successful.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 18
    nerudaneruda Posts: 436member
    cg27 said:
    Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire if and when he has a SpaceX IPO.
    And that crazy, fearless, bad ass engineer would deserve it ߘꦬt;/div>
    Ummmm. No (as others have mentioned above).

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4395444-tesla-please-stop-madness-shares-are-tremendously-overvalued

    Tesla stock price bubble is at tulip level. It's insane. For any Tesla stock owners out there, this will burst at some point. I give them 4 years after Apple/Huyndai enters this market before Telsa is near or out of business, at worst, or their stock price plummets, at best.  

    edited January 2021 watto_cobraSamsonikk
  • Reply 9 of 18
    cg27cg27 Posts: 169member
    tmay said:
    cg27 said:
    cg27 said:
    Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire if and when he has a SpaceX IPO.
    And that crazy, fearless, bad ass engineer would deserve it 😊

    He’s the definition of a big picture risk taker.
    Indeed, he and the other high profile engineers founding and running the most powerful and innovative corporations make the so-called big shots of Hollywood and Wall Street look like lame schmucks
    Elon is not an engineer, and for the record, the bubble that Elon is riding will burst sooner than later. 

    http://www.asymco.com/2021/01/13/the-entrants-guide-to-automotive-industry-updated/

    "That means that either there will be twice as many cars as we have now or they will be twice as expensive or they will be twice as profitable. And all that will happen really soon. We can’t have twice the cars since there will be nowhere to park them. We can’t double the price unless we double our wealth. We can’t make them twice as profitable unless we disable competitive forces and change the production system.

    Or, it could be that half the assets (all the other automakers) are worthless."

    Bubble. Burst. Soon.

    Undergrad in physics then was about to go for PhD in Applied Physics and Material Sciences. This is STEM, not liberal arts or history or whatever.  So just because it’s not explicitly electrical, mechanical, chemical, software... engineering doesn’t mean he’s not an engineer.  Computer science was once a subset of Electrical Engineering, but still an engineer.  He was a programmer when he started PayPal.

    He’ll discuss the most mundane engineering  details at any of his companies to the nth degree.  What he’s done with Tesla and the EV industry alone is nothing short of astounding, the next Henry Ford.  Couple that with his audacity and engineering vision to start a rocket company from scratch, that lands the rockets, no less.  Yeah, he’s not an engineer.  Nor were Galileo and da Vinci and Tesla and Edison by your logic.

    It’s an engineers’ world, you just live in it.
    watto_cobraSpamSandwich
  • Reply 10 of 18
    cg27cg27 Posts: 169member
    buckalec said:
    Often forgotten - Tesla was founded by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Musk entered the arena the following year at the financing stage.
    Correct, no one is arguing otherwise.  But had it not been for Musk it’s highly unlikely we’d even know or remember Tesla today.
    watto_cobraSpamSandwich
  • Reply 11 of 18
    cg27cg27 Posts: 169member
    tmay said:
    cg27 said:
    cg27 said:
    Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire if and when he has a SpaceX IPO.
    And that crazy, fearless, bad ass engineer would deserve it 😊

    He’s the definition of a big picture risk taker.
    Indeed, he and the other high profile engineers founding and running the most powerful and innovative corporations make the so-called big shots of Hollywood and Wall Street look like lame schmucks
    Elon is not an engineer, and for the record, the bubble that Elon is riding will burst sooner than later. 

    http://www.asymco.com/2021/01/13/the-entrants-guide-to-automotive-industry-updated/

    "That means that either there will be twice as many cars as we have now or they will be twice as expensive or they will be twice as profitable. And all that will happen really soon. We can’t have twice the cars since there will be nowhere to park them. We can’t double the price unless we double our wealth. We can’t make them twice as profitable unless we disable competitive forces and change the production system.

    Or, it could be that half the assets (all the other automakers) are worthless."

    Bubble. Burst. Soon.

    As for valuation, you should put all of your nickels together and short TSLA then.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 18
    cg27cg27 Posts: 169member
    neruda said:
    cg27 said:
    Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire if and when he has a SpaceX IPO.
    And that crazy, fearless, bad ass engineer would deserve it ߘꦬt;/div>
    Ummmm. No (as others have mentioned above).

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4395444-tesla-please-stop-madness-shares-are-tremendously-overvalued

    Tesla stock price bubble is at tulip level. It's insane. For any Tesla stock owners out there, this will burst at some point. I give them 4 years after Apple/Huyndai enters this market before Telsa is near or out of business, at worst, or their stock price plummets, at best.  

    Umm, yes, it’s been a sweet, albeit rocky, trajectory up thus far.  But even Musk himself has often called TSLA overvalued.  Sure it’ll plummet but so long as you rode it up and get out at some point before the music stops, so what.  Just remember it’s plummeted several times, only to climb back higher.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 18
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,719member
    cg27 said:
    tmay said:
    cg27 said:
    cg27 said:
    Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire if and when he has a SpaceX IPO.
    And that crazy, fearless, bad ass engineer would deserve it ߘꦬt;br>
    He’s the definition of a big picture risk taker.
    Indeed, he and the other high profile engineers founding and running the most powerful and innovative corporations make the so-called big shots of Hollywood and Wall Street look like lame schmucks
    Elon is not an engineer, and for the record, the bubble that Elon is riding will burst sooner than later. 

    http://www.asymco.com/2021/01/13/the-entrants-guide-to-automotive-industry-updated/

    "That means that either there will be twice as many cars as we have now or they will be twice as expensive or they will be twice as profitable. And all that will happen really soon. We can’t have twice the cars since there will be nowhere to park them. We can’t double the price unless we double our wealth. We can’t make them twice as profitable unless we disable competitive forces and change the production system.

    Or, it could be that half the assets (all the other automakers) are worthless."

    Bubble. Burst. Soon.

    Undergrad in physics then was about to go for PhD in Applied Physics and Material Sciences. This is STEM, not liberal arts or history or whatever.  So just because it’s not explicitly electrical, mechanical, chemical, software... engineering doesn’t mean he’s not an engineer.  Computer science was once a subset of Electrical Engineering, but still an engineer.  He was a programmer when he started PayPal.

    He’ll discuss the most mundane engineering  details at any of his companies to the nth degree.  What he’s done with Tesla and the EV industry alone is nothing short of astounding, the next Henry Ford.  Couple that with his audacity and engineering vision to start a rocket company from scratch, that lands the rockets, no less.  Yeah, he’s not an engineer.  Nor were Galileo and da Vinci and Tesla and Edison by your logic.

    It’s an engineers’ world, you just live in it.
    I'm an engineer, and I have read of enough of Tesla's solar, battery, and automotive operations to comment. Elon isn't astounding in the engineering world, nor is he astounding in the manufacturing world. 

    He is a brilliant self promoter, I'll give him that. 

    I mock Elon for that fact that Tesla only generates a small profit, and only in the last couple of years, and that from selling carbon credits to other Auto manufacturers, now ending. Tesla's operation, to date required government tax credits, same as his BEV competitors. The difference is that his competitors are better manufacturers, at higher volumes, and certainly, are better at customer service. This is being borne out by Volkswagens entry into the market.

    What I should really mock Elon for is his "vision" and "promises" that pump his stock, but have little effect on his manufacturing. The Model Y design is a joke, has seen poor uptake, and Elon has been talking of a "redesign" for the unfinished plant in Germany. The market for the Model's S, X, and 3 are saturated, with much price cutting, and the Cybertruck won't likely get close to the volumes of trucks that GM, RAM, and Ford sell, and these companies have announced EV versions for the market, unlike the vague Cybertruck design. 

    But by all means, invest in Tesla, at least until it deflates, which it will, sooner than later. Certainly, better educate yourself about the competition, especially in Asia, and Europe, but also North America.

    Oh, and those reusable rockets that land on their tails? The McDonnell Douglas DCX was doing that some 25 years ago, do hardly starting "from scratch", but credit for SpaceX building on what went before them.

    The real test of these companies, is if there valuation is tied to anything but Elon, and Elon has been showing a very disturbing side of himself in the media lately, losing supporters.

    In truth, why should I care what happens to Tesla investors. 
    edited January 2021 JanNLwatto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 18
    tmay said:
    cg27 said:
    cg27 said:
    Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire if and when he has a SpaceX IPO.
    And that crazy, fearless, bad ass engineer would deserve it 😊

    He’s the definition of a big picture risk taker.
    Indeed, he and the other high profile engineers founding and running the most powerful and innovative corporations make the so-called big shots of Hollywood and Wall Street look like lame schmucks
    Elon is not an engineer, and for the record, the bubble that Elon is riding will burst sooner than later. 

    http://www.asymco.com/2021/01/13/the-entrants-guide-to-automotive-industry-updated/

    "That means that either there will be twice as many cars as we have now or they will be twice as expensive or they will be twice as profitable. And all that will happen really soon. We can’t have twice the cars since there will be nowhere to park them. We can’t double the price unless we double our wealth. We can’t make them twice as profitable unless we disable competitive forces and change the production system.

    Or, it could be that half the assets (all the other automakers) are worthless."

    Bubble. Burst. Soon.

    Sorry for feeding this un-Apple conversation here. But I think you have missed that Tesla isn't only about cars. 
    watto_cobraatomic101
  • Reply 15 of 18
    tmay said:

    Oh, and those reusable rockets that land on their tails? The McDonnell Douglas DCX was doing that some 25 years ago, do hardly starting "from scratch", but credit for SpaceX building on what went before them.

    Oh yeah, this prototype flew and land. But never into space, never to the space station, never commercially, never crewed.
    So what's SpaceX innovation here, right?
    watto_cobracg27
  • Reply 16 of 18
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,719member
    talexy said:
    tmay said:

    Oh, and those reusable rockets that land on their tails? The McDonnell Douglas DCX was doing that some 25 years ago, do hardly starting "from scratch", but credit for SpaceX building on what went before them.

    Oh yeah, this prototype flew and land. But never into space, never to the space station, never commercially, never crewed.
    So what's SpaceX innovation here, right?
    Reading comprehension; it's your friend...

    but credit for SpaceX building on what went before them.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 18
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,719member
    talexy said:
    tmay said:
    cg27 said:
    cg27 said:
    Elon Musk could be the world’s first trillionaire if and when he has a SpaceX IPO.
    And that crazy, fearless, bad ass engineer would deserve it 😊

    He’s the definition of a big picture risk taker.
    Indeed, he and the other high profile engineers founding and running the most powerful and innovative corporations make the so-called big shots of Hollywood and Wall Street look like lame schmucks
    Elon is not an engineer, and for the record, the bubble that Elon is riding will burst sooner than later. 

    http://www.asymco.com/2021/01/13/the-entrants-guide-to-automotive-industry-updated/

    "That means that either there will be twice as many cars as we have now or they will be twice as expensive or they will be twice as profitable. And all that will happen really soon. We can’t have twice the cars since there will be nowhere to park them. We can’t double the price unless we double our wealth. We can’t make them twice as profitable unless we disable competitive forces and change the production system.

    Or, it could be that half the assets (all the other automakers) are worthless."

    Bubble. Burst. Soon.

    Sorry for feeding this un-Apple conversation here. But I think you have missed that Tesla isn't only about cars. 
    ...again with the lack of reading comprehension...

    My first sentence;

    I'm an engineer, and I have read of enough of Tesla's solar, battery, and automotive operations to comment. Elon isn't astounding in the engineering world, nor is he astounding in the manufacturing world. 
    Which brings to the forefront; why do Elon fans have such tunnel vision wrt Tesla?
  • Reply 18 of 18
    Why the hell are you people in here talking about ELON MUSK!!
    I came expecting conversation about Apple’s possible 3 trillion dollar valuation! Didn’t find anything remotely related to it! What the heck’s going on here?” You people need to go find a Tesla FORUM!”
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