Apple could be Tesla's biggest threat, analyst says

2

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 41
    hentaiboyhentaiboy Posts: 1,244member
    Volkswagen’s going with Microsoft for vehicle autonomy. BSOD while self driving could be nasty...

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-microsoft-volkswagen/volkswagen-taps-microsofts-cloud-to-develop-self-driving-software-idUSKBN2AB0SZ
  • Reply 22 of 41
    JWSCJWSC Posts: 1,022member
    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    longpath said:
    My running hypothesis is that Apple’s vehicle needs a mature version of the AR and VR work they’ve been working on and driverless functions needs to be operationally optional, not mandatory, as present rumors suggest. Anything less than that and all the high end chassis work being done by ex-Porsche people makes no sense. Why go to the trouble of designing a driver’s chassis if there’s no human driver to enjoy it? If the first generation being fully driverless is true, and not intentional misdirection, then it’s still a glorified robotaxi, and zero threat to the majority of BEV players in the market, especially Tesla, whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competitors. Conversely, those competitors are decades ahead of Tesla in figuring out how to mass produce their designs. Every design that Tesla has come out with has been a struggle to ramp up production, and as a recent conversation between Elon Musk and Sandy Munro confirmed, quality has suffered during each of those volume ramp ups.
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html

    I’m not sure where you’re getting your information from but it appears to be dated, at best.

    Tesla’s dual motor design for front and rear axles eschews a transmission altogether, eliminating mechanical powertrain loss.  The car computer controls the torque for each motor and the AI learns to improve distribution of power over time between front and rear axles improving performance and traction.  No competitor that we know of has pursued this system design.  It is the primary reason that  Tesla autos surpass their competitors in range and will likely do so for the foreseeable future.

    And in case you haven’t heard, Tesla has made a profit for five consecutive quarters in a row.

    Made a profit selling carbon credits, but not much else. BFD. Not much of a market left given the competitors have added more BEV models in the EU


    As for range, Tesla has never achieved its stated EPA range estimates in any reviews, and sure given a big, fucking, battery capacity, Tesla scores for range.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/edmunds-every-single-tesla-weve-tested-has-failed-hit-its-epa-range-estimate

    ...but look how great the Tacan comes out.


    You mean multi motor design like this....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzwM8KE2L3I&feature=emb_logo


    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    longpath said:
    My running hypothesis is that Apple’s vehicle needs a mature version of the AR and VR work they’ve been working on and driverless functions needs to be operationally optional, not mandatory, as present rumors suggest. Anything less than that and all the high end chassis work being done by ex-Porsche people makes no sense. Why go to the trouble of designing a driver’s chassis if there’s no human driver to enjoy it? If the first generation being fully driverless is true, and not intentional misdirection, then it’s still a glorified robotaxi, and zero threat to the majority of BEV players in the market, especially Tesla, whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competitors. Conversely, those competitors are decades ahead of Tesla in figuring out how to mass produce their designs. Every design that Tesla has come out with has been a struggle to ramp up production, and as a recent conversation between Elon Musk and Sandy Munro confirmed, quality has suffered during each of those volume ramp ups.
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html

    I’m not sure where you’re getting your information from but it appears to be dated, at best.

    Tesla’s dual motor design for front and rear axles eschews a transmission altogether, eliminating mechanical powertrain loss.  The car computer controls the torque for each motor and the AI learns to improve distribution of power over time between front and rear axles improving performance and traction.  No competitor that we know of has pursued this system design.  It is the primary reason that  Tesla autos surpass their competitors in range and will likely do so for the foreseeable future.

    And in case you haven’t heard, Tesla has made a profit for five consecutive quarters in a row.

    Made a profit selling carbon credits, but not much else. BFD. Not much of a market left given the competitors have added more BEV models in the EU


    As for range, Tesla has never achieved its stated EPA range estimates in any reviews, and sure given a big, fucking, battery capacity, Tesla scores for range.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/edmunds-every-single-tesla-weve-tested-has-failed-hit-its-epa-range-estimate

    ...but look how great the Tacan comes out.


    You mean multi motor design like this....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzwM8KE2L3I&feature=emb_logo


    Every auto company will be seeking carbon credits.  I’m not understanding the point you’re trying to make.

    The elephant in the room is Tesla’s network of AI machine learning connected to proprietary processors in their own vehicles, which no other auto company is even close to being able to replicate.  Their lead in on-board processing power and the network effect on autonomous driving machine learning is enormous.

    The substantial lead they have in several key EV technologies has the practical end result of achieving superior distance between charges, which is the number one attribute potential buyers look for in EVs.

    You may dislike Elon Musk and/or Tesla for various reasons.  And that is your prerogative.  But to dismiss and deny their substantial lead in key EV technologies is to bury one’s head in the sand.  One should hope competing EV auto manufacturers, including Apple, do not make the same mistake.

    longpathsteven n.
  • Reply 23 of 41
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,453member
    JWSC said:

    So, here we are almost 7 years since the original project Titan was first mentioned. Since that time Tesla’s technology has advanced considerably.  Other EV auto makers have entered the field.  And the traditional auto industry has made significant moves into the EV market.

    I must ask, what gap in the market can Apple fill with their own potential offerings?  What is every other potential competitor missing?  Admittedly, this could be due to a lack of imagination on my part, even though I have given this considerable thought.

    It’s possible that Apple could pull an “iPhone” and announce an automobile that is well beyond the imagination of the enthusiasts on this forum and EV enthusiasts in general.  But with Tesla so far ahead of everyone else in motor, battery, and autonomous technology, that’s going to be a tall order for Apple.  Tesla likely has hundreds of millions of actual road miles to feed into their AI learning algorithms.  Apple’s road miles wouldn’t even occupy one pixel on a chart if you put them side-by-side to scale.

    Look at SpaceX - reusable rockets as standard operating procedure.  A few small start-ups dipping their toes in reusability.  And the rest of the big players got nothin’.

    So I am asking, what can, what must, Apple do to differentiate their automotive offerings from everyone else’s?  Because if Apple can’t do that they will get creamed.

    Similar to what others have said, I think the opportunity is to redefine transportation as a service. If Apple enters this market selling cars to individual consumers like every other auto manufacturer out there, then I think they will fail. But if they are offering a premium transportation service then I think there's room for success. 

    In other words, I think if they compete with Uber they can win; if they compete with GM, Ford, Toyota, VW, Honda, BMW, etc they will lose. 
    tmay
  • Reply 24 of 41
    I agree with JWSC here, Tesla is miles ahead.. of all other EVs. Especially when it comes to self driving. Even hardware wise, other manufacturers can't come close to matching Tesla EV specs, even with luxury EVs that cost 3 x more. Tesla is perfecting the personal EV, but I don't think Apple is interested in personal cars. I think Apple will perfect the robo taxi, with a highly sophisticated user experience that takes advantage of the Apple ecosystem (fingers crossed for Siri), while Tesla will continue perfecting personal use cars (that can also be used as robo taxis). I don't think a singular purpose robo taxi would be a priority for Tesla; I think Tesla wants their cars to function as a vehicle.. not just for transport, but for financial independence (generate your own robo taxi revenue) and energy independence (in the future, the substantial batteries in their cars will likely be able to participate in the energy grid in and allow owners to participate in the energy economy) (fyi, many people feel that the energy aspect of teslas cars/solar/batteries will eventually generate more revenue than their actual cars).
    edited February 11
  • Reply 25 of 41
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,452member
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    longpath said:
    My running hypothesis is that Apple’s vehicle needs a mature version of the AR and VR work they’ve been working on and driverless functions needs to be operationally optional, not mandatory, as present rumors suggest. Anything less than that and all the high end chassis work being done by ex-Porsche people makes no sense. Why go to the trouble of designing a driver’s chassis if there’s no human driver to enjoy it? If the first generation being fully driverless is true, and not intentional misdirection, then it’s still a glorified robotaxi, and zero threat to the majority of BEV players in the market, especially Tesla, whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competitors. Conversely, those competitors are decades ahead of Tesla in figuring out how to mass produce their designs. Every design that Tesla has come out with has been a struggle to ramp up production, and as a recent conversation between Elon Musk and Sandy Munro confirmed, quality has suffered during each of those volume ramp ups.
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html

    I’m not sure where you’re getting your information from but it appears to be dated, at best.

    Tesla’s dual motor design for front and rear axles eschews a transmission altogether, eliminating mechanical powertrain loss.  The car computer controls the torque for each motor and the AI learns to improve distribution of power over time between front and rear axles improving performance and traction.  No competitor that we know of has pursued this system design.  It is the primary reason that  Tesla autos surpass their competitors in range and will likely do so for the foreseeable future.

    And in case you haven’t heard, Tesla has made a profit for five consecutive quarters in a row.

    Made a profit selling carbon credits, but not much else. BFD. Not much of a market left given the competitors have added more BEV models in the EU


    As for range, Tesla has never achieved its stated EPA range estimates in any reviews, and sure given a big, fucking, battery capacity, Tesla scores for range.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/edmunds-every-single-tesla-weve-tested-has-failed-hit-its-epa-range-estimate

    ...but look how great the Tacan comes out.


    You mean multi motor design like this....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzwM8KE2L3I&feature=emb_logo


    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    longpath said:
    My running hypothesis is that Apple’s vehicle needs a mature version of the AR and VR work they’ve been working on and driverless functions needs to be operationally optional, not mandatory, as present rumors suggest. Anything less than that and all the high end chassis work being done by ex-Porsche people makes no sense. Why go to the trouble of designing a driver’s chassis if there’s no human driver to enjoy it? If the first generation being fully driverless is true, and not intentional misdirection, then it’s still a glorified robotaxi, and zero threat to the majority of BEV players in the market, especially Tesla, whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competitors. Conversely, those competitors are decades ahead of Tesla in figuring out how to mass produce their designs. Every design that Tesla has come out with has been a struggle to ramp up production, and as a recent conversation between Elon Musk and Sandy Munro confirmed, quality has suffered during each of those volume ramp ups.
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html

    I’m not sure where you’re getting your information from but it appears to be dated, at best.

    Tesla’s dual motor design for front and rear axles eschews a transmission altogether, eliminating mechanical powertrain loss.  The car computer controls the torque for each motor and the AI learns to improve distribution of power over time between front and rear axles improving performance and traction.  No competitor that we know of has pursued this system design.  It is the primary reason that  Tesla autos surpass their competitors in range and will likely do so for the foreseeable future.

    And in case you haven’t heard, Tesla has made a profit for five consecutive quarters in a row.

    Made a profit selling carbon credits, but not much else. BFD. Not much of a market left given the competitors have added more BEV models in the EU


    As for range, Tesla has never achieved its stated EPA range estimates in any reviews, and sure given a big, fucking, battery capacity, Tesla scores for range.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/edmunds-every-single-tesla-weve-tested-has-failed-hit-its-epa-range-estimate

    ...but look how great the Tacan comes out.


    You mean multi motor design like this....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzwM8KE2L3I&feature=emb_logo


    Every auto company will be seeking carbon credits.  I’m not understanding the point you’re trying to make.

    The elephant in the room is Tesla’s network of AI machine learning connected to proprietary processors in their own vehicles, which no other auto company is even close to being able to replicate.  Their lead in on-board processing power and the network effect on autonomous driving machine learning is enormous.

    The substantial lead they have in several key EV technologies has the practical end result of achieving superior distance between charges, which is the number one attribute potential buyers look for in EVs.

    You may dislike Elon Musk and/or Tesla for various reasons.  And that is your prerogative.  But to dismiss and deny their substantial lead in key EV technologies is to bury one’s head in the sand.  One should hope competing EV auto manufacturers, including Apple, do not make the same mistake.

    FFS,

    Tesla isn't the leader in autonomous driving, and a Level 2, they don't actually have a "full self driving" mode, no matter the miles that they accumulate. 

    https://www.analyticsinsight.net/autonomous-vehicle-landscape-2020-leaders-self-driving-cars-race/

    Tesla doesn't have a substantial lead in any EV technologies. 

    Show me those million robotaxis that Elon promised in 2020.

    Oh wait. There hasn't been a single Tesla Robotaxi delivered.
    edited February 11
  • Reply 26 of 41
    My best guess for how Apple is going to blow up the market and offer something that differentiates it from other car companies is to approach it to through services. Apple would supply a car service like no other. And with the integration with iOS, the ease and personalization you would experience upon entering the service would far exceed what any other service could offer. 
    Then you consider some of Apple’s possible costs... the maintenance on electric vehicles versus combustion vehicles, electric wins hands down. For the replacement parts (tires/brakes), these can be easily monitored and replaced on a schedule (something that Apple is exceptionally good at). The avoidance of having to build dealerships (as you are not selling cars). 

    When I ask the question how much mark up can one make on the sale of a car? My guess is on the low side of things. I don’t see how Apple makes its usual percentage on selling vehicles. But if they create fleets of vehicles and slowly dispatch them in major cities they are not competing with vehicle makers directly; rather, they are coming at them from a position that fits Apple’s playbook and next thing you know the game has changed and Apple is in a dominant position in very quick fashion... say 10 years?? 
    There are many cars that have been on the market for years that will turn on a reminder to get a service (Oil, Brakes, etc).  But many of these have no basis in reality. After all, why would anyone who cares about maintaining his/her $70k (or much more) BMW, Mercedes Benz, etc. have the oil changed once per year because “the car told me”?  Manufacturers who provide ‘free’ maintenance under warranty, like BMW, are clearly wanting to do the minimum amount of maintenance under warranty. That’s why so many BMWs on the used market have engine issues, because they had three oil changes in 50k miles, rather than ten!  And there’s no way that anyone, even Apple, could determine that the tires, brakes, wheel bearings, etc are worn and need service.  They are all just time/ usage estimations, and why would Apple be any better at doing that than manufacturers who have built cars for decades?

    Also, who is going to service these Apple vehicles if Apple doesn’t have a dealer network? Pep Boys? Firestone? Midas? Eddie’s Auto Shop? 

    Regarding your statement about fleets of vehicles...that’s exactly the opposite of Apple, who builds products that cater to individuals. The last thing that Apple would want with an Apple Car would be a plain autonomous drone that blends into the automotive background. 

    It makes no sense (to me) for Apple to venture so far outside their market space, and produce vehicles. I’m a huge Apple fanboy (currently have two MacBook Pros, two iPhones, two AppleTVs, an iPad, an Apple Watch, and an old iMac that needs to go away), but I do not see any motivation for me to own an Apple Car. I don’t want an autonomous pod to chauffeur me around as I snap selfies and update my social media. I am a driver, and enjoy the experience of driving. 
    JWSC
  • Reply 27 of 41
    JWSCJWSC Posts: 1,022member
    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    longpath said:
    My running hypothesis is that Apple’s vehicle needs a mature version of the AR and VR work they’ve been working on and driverless functions needs to be operationally optional, not mandatory, as present rumors suggest. Anything less than that and all the high end chassis work being done by ex-Porsche people makes no sense. Why go to the trouble of designing a driver’s chassis if there’s no human driver to enjoy it? If the first generation being fully driverless is true, and not intentional misdirection, then it’s still a glorified robotaxi, and zero threat to the majority of BEV players in the market, especially Tesla, whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competitors. Conversely, those competitors are decades ahead of Tesla in figuring out how to mass produce their designs. Every design that Tesla has come out with has been a struggle to ramp up production, and as a recent conversation between Elon Musk and Sandy Munro confirmed, quality has suffered during each of those volume ramp ups.
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html

    I’m not sure where you’re getting your information from but it appears to be dated, at best.

    Tesla’s dual motor design for front and rear axles eschews a transmission altogether, eliminating mechanical powertrain loss.  The car computer controls the torque for each motor and the AI learns to improve distribution of power over time between front and rear axles improving performance and traction.  No competitor that we know of has pursued this system design.  It is the primary reason that  Tesla autos surpass their competitors in range and will likely do so for the foreseeable future.

    And in case you haven’t heard, Tesla has made a profit for five consecutive quarters in a row.

    Made a profit selling carbon credits, but not much else. BFD. Not much of a market left given the competitors have added more BEV models in the EU


    As for range, Tesla has never achieved its stated EPA range estimates in any reviews, and sure given a big, fucking, battery capacity, Tesla scores for range.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/edmunds-every-single-tesla-weve-tested-has-failed-hit-its-epa-range-estimate

    ...but look how great the Tacan comes out.


    You mean multi motor design like this....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzwM8KE2L3I&feature=emb_logo


    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    longpath said:
    My running hypothesis is that Apple’s vehicle needs a mature version of the AR and VR work they’ve been working on and driverless functions needs to be operationally optional, not mandatory, as present rumors suggest. Anything less than that and all the high end chassis work being done by ex-Porsche people makes no sense. Why go to the trouble of designing a driver’s chassis if there’s no human driver to enjoy it? If the first generation being fully driverless is true, and not intentional misdirection, then it’s still a glorified robotaxi, and zero threat to the majority of BEV players in the market, especially Tesla, whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competitors. Conversely, those competitors are decades ahead of Tesla in figuring out how to mass produce their designs. Every design that Tesla has come out with has been a struggle to ramp up production, and as a recent conversation between Elon Musk and Sandy Munro confirmed, quality has suffered during each of those volume ramp ups.
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html

    I’m not sure where you’re getting your information from but it appears to be dated, at best.

    Tesla’s dual motor design for front and rear axles eschews a transmission altogether, eliminating mechanical powertrain loss.  The car computer controls the torque for each motor and the AI learns to improve distribution of power over time between front and rear axles improving performance and traction.  No competitor that we know of has pursued this system design.  It is the primary reason that  Tesla autos surpass their competitors in range and will likely do so for the foreseeable future.

    And in case you haven’t heard, Tesla has made a profit for five consecutive quarters in a row.

    Made a profit selling carbon credits, but not much else. BFD. Not much of a market left given the competitors have added more BEV models in the EU


    As for range, Tesla has never achieved its stated EPA range estimates in any reviews, and sure given a big, fucking, battery capacity, Tesla scores for range.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/edmunds-every-single-tesla-weve-tested-has-failed-hit-its-epa-range-estimate

    ...but look how great the Tacan comes out.


    You mean multi motor design like this....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzwM8KE2L3I&feature=emb_logo


    Every auto company will be seeking carbon credits.  I’m not understanding the point you’re trying to make.

    The elephant in the room is Tesla’s network of AI machine learning connected to proprietary processors in their own vehicles, which no other auto company is even close to being able to replicate.  Their lead in on-board processing power and the network effect on autonomous driving machine learning is enormous.

    The substantial lead they have in several key EV technologies has the practical end result of achieving superior distance between charges, which is the number one attribute potential buyers look for in EVs.

    You may dislike Elon Musk and/or Tesla for various reasons.  And that is your prerogative.  But to dismiss and deny their substantial lead in key EV technologies is to bury one’s head in the sand.  One should hope competing EV auto manufacturers, including Apple, do not make the same mistake.

    FFS,

    Tesla isn't the leader in autonomous driving, and a Level 2, they don't actually have a "full self driving" mode, no matter the miles that they accumulate. 

    https://www.analyticsinsight.net/autonomous-vehicle-landscape-2020-leaders-self-driving-cars-race/

    Tesla doesn't have a substantial lead in any EV technologies. 

    Show me those million robotaxis that Elon promised in 2020.

    Oh wait. There hasn't been a single Tesla Robotaxi delivered.
    I’m sorry to say that the article you linked to is worthless.  It talks mostly about financials and provides little insight or understanding of the technologies underlying it all.  You can believe what you want.  But I’m not investing with you. Good luck.
  • Reply 28 of 41
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,452member
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    longpath said:
    My running hypothesis is that Apple’s vehicle needs a mature version of the AR and VR work they’ve been working on and driverless functions needs to be operationally optional, not mandatory, as present rumors suggest. Anything less than that and all the high end chassis work being done by ex-Porsche people makes no sense. Why go to the trouble of designing a driver’s chassis if there’s no human driver to enjoy it? If the first generation being fully driverless is true, and not intentional misdirection, then it’s still a glorified robotaxi, and zero threat to the majority of BEV players in the market, especially Tesla, whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competitors. Conversely, those competitors are decades ahead of Tesla in figuring out how to mass produce their designs. Every design that Tesla has come out with has been a struggle to ramp up production, and as a recent conversation between Elon Musk and Sandy Munro confirmed, quality has suffered during each of those volume ramp ups.
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html

    I’m not sure where you’re getting your information from but it appears to be dated, at best.

    Tesla’s dual motor design for front and rear axles eschews a transmission altogether, eliminating mechanical powertrain loss.  The car computer controls the torque for each motor and the AI learns to improve distribution of power over time between front and rear axles improving performance and traction.  No competitor that we know of has pursued this system design.  It is the primary reason that  Tesla autos surpass their competitors in range and will likely do so for the foreseeable future.

    And in case you haven’t heard, Tesla has made a profit for five consecutive quarters in a row.

    Made a profit selling carbon credits, but not much else. BFD. Not much of a market left given the competitors have added more BEV models in the EU


    As for range, Tesla has never achieved its stated EPA range estimates in any reviews, and sure given a big, fucking, battery capacity, Tesla scores for range.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/edmunds-every-single-tesla-weve-tested-has-failed-hit-its-epa-range-estimate

    ...but look how great the Tacan comes out.


    You mean multi motor design like this....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzwM8KE2L3I&feature=emb_logo


    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    longpath said:
    My running hypothesis is that Apple’s vehicle needs a mature version of the AR and VR work they’ve been working on and driverless functions needs to be operationally optional, not mandatory, as present rumors suggest. Anything less than that and all the high end chassis work being done by ex-Porsche people makes no sense. Why go to the trouble of designing a driver’s chassis if there’s no human driver to enjoy it? If the first generation being fully driverless is true, and not intentional misdirection, then it’s still a glorified robotaxi, and zero threat to the majority of BEV players in the market, especially Tesla, whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competitors. Conversely, those competitors are decades ahead of Tesla in figuring out how to mass produce their designs. Every design that Tesla has come out with has been a struggle to ramp up production, and as a recent conversation between Elon Musk and Sandy Munro confirmed, quality has suffered during each of those volume ramp ups.
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html

    I’m not sure where you’re getting your information from but it appears to be dated, at best.

    Tesla’s dual motor design for front and rear axles eschews a transmission altogether, eliminating mechanical powertrain loss.  The car computer controls the torque for each motor and the AI learns to improve distribution of power over time between front and rear axles improving performance and traction.  No competitor that we know of has pursued this system design.  It is the primary reason that  Tesla autos surpass their competitors in range and will likely do so for the foreseeable future.

    And in case you haven’t heard, Tesla has made a profit for five consecutive quarters in a row.

    Made a profit selling carbon credits, but not much else. BFD. Not much of a market left given the competitors have added more BEV models in the EU


    As for range, Tesla has never achieved its stated EPA range estimates in any reviews, and sure given a big, fucking, battery capacity, Tesla scores for range.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/edmunds-every-single-tesla-weve-tested-has-failed-hit-its-epa-range-estimate

    ...but look how great the Tacan comes out.


    You mean multi motor design like this....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzwM8KE2L3I&feature=emb_logo


    Every auto company will be seeking carbon credits.  I’m not understanding the point you’re trying to make.

    The elephant in the room is Tesla’s network of AI machine learning connected to proprietary processors in their own vehicles, which no other auto company is even close to being able to replicate.  Their lead in on-board processing power and the network effect on autonomous driving machine learning is enormous.

    The substantial lead they have in several key EV technologies has the practical end result of achieving superior distance between charges, which is the number one attribute potential buyers look for in EVs.

    You may dislike Elon Musk and/or Tesla for various reasons.  And that is your prerogative.  But to dismiss and deny their substantial lead in key EV technologies is to bury one’s head in the sand.  One should hope competing EV auto manufacturers, including Apple, do not make the same mistake.

    FFS,

    Tesla isn't the leader in autonomous driving, and a Level 2, they don't actually have a "full self driving" mode, no matter the miles that they accumulate. 

    https://www.analyticsinsight.net/autonomous-vehicle-landscape-2020-leaders-self-driving-cars-race/

    Tesla doesn't have a substantial lead in any EV technologies. 

    Show me those million robotaxis that Elon promised in 2020.

    Oh wait. There hasn't been a single Tesla Robotaxi delivered.
    I’m sorry to say that the article you linked to is worthless.  It talks mostly about financials and provides little insight or understanding of the technologies underlying it all.  You can believe what you want.  But I’m not investing with you. Good luck.
    No problem. Invest as you see fit, but I and others don't need to suffer your delusions.

    BTW, here's a "tank turn" video from EV Pickup builder Rivian, as if Tesla is a tachnology leader...


    edited February 11
  • Reply 29 of 41
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 2,050member
    emcnair said:
    I was just looking at the market cap of Mazda Motors, which is 3.6 billion. Apple has the capital to just buy an automotive company. 
    They should by them or Subaru or maybe Mitsuibishi.

    But the real problem with EVs is having the Battery production.

    Cooks been trying to do this on the Cheap, but it is “Go Large or Go Home” he needs to “5h1t or get off the toliet”
  • Reply 30 of 41
    1348513485 Posts: 191member
    JWSC said:

    So, here we are almost 7 years since the original project Titan was first mentioned. Since that time Tesla’s technology has advanced considerably.  Other EV auto makers have entered the field.  And the traditional auto industry has made significant moves into the EV market.

    I must ask, what gap in the market can Apple fill with their own potential offerings?  What is every other potential competitor missing?  Admittedly, this could be due to a lack of imagination on my part, even though I have given this considerable thought.

    It’s possible that Apple could pull an “iPhone” and announce an automobile that is well beyond the imagination of the enthusiasts on this forum and EV enthusiasts in general.  But with Tesla so far ahead of everyone else in motor, battery, and autonomous technology, that’s going to be a tall order for Apple.  Tesla likely has hundreds of millions of actual road miles to feed into their AI learning algorithms.  Apple’s road miles wouldn’t even occupy one pixel on a chart if you put them side-by-side to scale.

    Look at SpaceX - reusable rockets as standard operating procedure.  A few small start-ups dipping their toes in reusability.  And the rest of the big players got nothin’.

    So I am asking, what can, what must, Apple do to differentiate their automotive offerings from everyone else’s?  Because if Apple can’t do that they will get creamed.

    What was missing from the cell phone industry, the tablet industry, the portable computer industry, the music player industry...before Apple brought out a product?  As I've said before, this is not a race, it's simply a competition where being the first to market means nothing.

    As far as Tesla being "ahead" in AI, how do you know? And it's not so much the amount of information the AI gets as the decisions it makes based on the software it was programmed with.

    "Differentiation" is a marketing concept that doesn't always mean anything. What differentiation is there between the hundreds of major beers,  between a Ford and a Chevy, Levis or Wranglers, or anything else? It ranges from nothing at all to precious little. And yet there they are making sales.
    edited February 11
  • Reply 31 of 41
    tmay said:
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html
    You have no idea how expensive it is to use solid state battery. All the research done so far is in the lab, none for mass production. If Toyota use today’s solid state battery to build a EV, it will cost the same as a small jet.  

    Also, Toyota has their eyes on Hydrogen car, which is the 2nd generation now in Japan.  
    patchythepirate
  • Reply 32 of 41
    That's so ridiculous thinking Apple will be a threat to Tesla.  Elon Musk is practically a living god when it comes to EV.  He has a huge following of hard-core believers.  Wall Street swears that whatever he does will turn into a huge success.  He's already the world's richest person and he'll be worth far more by the time Apple sees the first sale of an AppleCar.  If Elon Musk decided to tweet that Apple computers are junk, he could drive down Apple's share price.  That's the kind of power he has.  He buys BitCoin, so they say Apple should buy BitCoin.  Elon Musk can do anything he wants.  Tim Cook can't do that.

    AppleCar won't be ready for four more years and you've got these people talking about how Tesla is going to fear Apple.  Sure, the AppleCar may offer some competition, but Tesla will surely be worth over $1T by 2025 and is already the world's most valuable automaker by a huge margin.  AppleCar's impact on Tesla will be like a flea biting an elephant.  I wish they would stop talking about AppleCar as if it were an actual product.  Currently, it's basically some sort of a vague concept.  Can't they talk about what Apple has going for it now and not something that's years away?  AppleCar could end up like the original HomePod or that AirPower charger.  Let's see an actual, running AppleCar before saying Elon Musk will be trembling with fear.  Right now, he's laughing at Apple for not even being able to find a credible partner to build this Telsa-killer EV.  For the price of one Tesla Model S Plaid Plus at $140,000, Apple has to sell 140 base iPhone 12 Pro Max units to equal that price.  Apple should be valued for what it has and not for some future pie-in-the-sky product.  The only "wheels" Apple has now are the one's that can be installed on a Mac Pro.
    JWSCpatchythepirate
  • Reply 33 of 41
    rbnetengr said:
    There are many cars that have been on the market for years that will turn on a reminder to get a service (Oil, Brakes, etc).  But many of these have no basis in reality. After all, why would anyone who cares about maintaining his/her $70k (or much more) BMW, Mercedes Benz, etc. have the oil changed once per year because “the car told me”?  Manufacturers who provide ‘free’ maintenance under warranty, like BMW, are clearly wanting to do the minimum amount of maintenance under warranty. That’s why so many BMWs on the used market have engine issues, because they had three oil changes in 50k miles, rather than ten!  And there’s no way that anyone, even Apple, could determine that the tires, brakes, wheel bearings, etc are worn and need service.  They are all just time/ usage estimations, and why would Apple be any better at doing that than manufacturers who have built cars for decades?

    Also, who is going to service these Apple vehicles if Apple doesn’t have a dealer network? Pep Boys? Firestone? Midas? Eddie’s Auto Shop? 

    Regarding your statement about fleets of vehicles...that’s exactly the opposite of Apple, who builds products that cater to individuals. The last thing that Apple would want with an Apple Car would be a plain autonomous drone that blends into the automotive background. 

    It makes no sense (to me) for Apple to venture so far outside their market space, and produce vehicles. I’m a huge Apple fanboy (currently have two MacBook Pros, two iPhones, two AppleTVs, an iPad, an Apple Watch, and an old iMac that needs to go away), but I do not see any motivation for me to own an Apple Car. I don’t want an autonomous pod to chauffeur me around as I snap selfies and update my social media. I am a driver, and enjoy the experience of driving. 
    Regarding your comment on the usage estimations, I would be inclined to think of it more based on hours in use. I am not suggesting that other companies would not be able to do the same, but it would be short sighted to not think there is some sort of average time used that could be calculated. Replacement would then happen at that time, regardless if you could get 10 000 more kilometers out of it or not. It was scheduled to be changed and we’re changing it. This cost would have been already calculated into the overall cost of maintenance and passed onto us the consumer. 

    Apple doesn’t need a dealer network, they are not selling cars. They would simply need hubs where cars would come and charge and where Apple staff would do service checks on the vehicles. Not so different from the service that apple stores currently provide people with product issues. The only difference is that the cars would be driving themselves to these locations to be serviced. And with the slow roll out into major cities, they would not need a ton of these locations. They would build out as needed.

    I am not sure I understand your comment that fleets of apple vehicles being opposite of Apple. Why would one assume drones that they are building would blend into the background. I would suspect that these cars would definitely stand out from what is on the road today. It would be obvious to anyone looking at traffic that you would be in an apple car.

    It doesn’t sound like you would be a person that would be using this hypothetical service that I’ve described and that is fine. I enjoy driving too. I also enjoy driving newer vehicles so that I don’t have to worry about repairs or about potential break downs and then being out a car. But I am also aware that it is costly for my wife and I to continually be leasing vehicles. We could buy and then sell but that’s another hassle. However, I could see us at some point in the future leasing one vehicle and then using this service for when we need two vehicles. I mean why would I be spending 700+ a month on a lease/insurance/fuel when I could pay for an apple car service. Sure I could just use a taxi service BUT it would not provide me with the individual personalizations that would make the journey that much more enjoyable.
    JWSC
  • Reply 34 of 41
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    longpath said:
    My running hypothesis is that Apple’s vehicle needs a mature version of the AR and VR work they’ve been working on and driverless functions needs to be operationally optional, not mandatory, as present rumors suggest. Anything less than that and all the high end chassis work being done by ex-Porsche people makes no sense. Why go to the trouble of designing a driver’s chassis if there’s no human driver to enjoy it? If the first generation being fully driverless is true, and not intentional misdirection, then it’s still a glorified robotaxi, and zero threat to the majority of BEV players in the market, especially Tesla, whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competitors. Conversely, those competitors are decades ahead of Tesla in figuring out how to mass produce their designs. Every design that Tesla has come out with has been a struggle to ramp up production, and as a recent conversation between Elon Musk and Sandy Munro confirmed, quality has suffered during each of those volume ramp ups.
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html

    I’m not sure where you’re getting your information from but it appears to be dated, at best.

    Tesla’s dual motor design for front and rear axles eschews a transmission altogether, eliminating mechanical powertrain loss.  The car computer controls the torque for each motor and the AI learns to improve distribution of power over time between front and rear axles improving performance and traction.  No competitor that we know of has pursued this system design.  It is the primary reason that  Tesla autos surpass their competitors in range and will likely do so for the foreseeable future.

    And in case you haven’t heard, Tesla has made a profit for five consecutive quarters in a row.

    Made a profit selling carbon credits, but not much else. BFD. Not much of a market left given the competitors have added more BEV models in the EU


    As for range, Tesla has never achieved its stated EPA range estimates in any reviews, and sure given a big, fucking, battery capacity, Tesla scores for range.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/edmunds-every-single-tesla-weve-tested-has-failed-hit-its-epa-range-estimate

    ...but look how great the Tacan comes out.


    You mean multi motor design like this....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzwM8KE2L3I&feature=emb_logo


    tmay said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    longpath said:
    My running hypothesis is that Apple’s vehicle needs a mature version of the AR and VR work they’ve been working on and driverless functions needs to be operationally optional, not mandatory, as present rumors suggest. Anything less than that and all the high end chassis work being done by ex-Porsche people makes no sense. Why go to the trouble of designing a driver’s chassis if there’s no human driver to enjoy it? If the first generation being fully driverless is true, and not intentional misdirection, then it’s still a glorified robotaxi, and zero threat to the majority of BEV players in the market, especially Tesla, whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competitors. Conversely, those competitors are decades ahead of Tesla in figuring out how to mass produce their designs. Every design that Tesla has come out with has been a struggle to ramp up production, and as a recent conversation between Elon Musk and Sandy Munro confirmed, quality has suffered during each of those volume ramp ups.
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html

    I’m not sure where you’re getting your information from but it appears to be dated, at best.

    Tesla’s dual motor design for front and rear axles eschews a transmission altogether, eliminating mechanical powertrain loss.  The car computer controls the torque for each motor and the AI learns to improve distribution of power over time between front and rear axles improving performance and traction.  No competitor that we know of has pursued this system design.  It is the primary reason that  Tesla autos surpass their competitors in range and will likely do so for the foreseeable future.

    And in case you haven’t heard, Tesla has made a profit for five consecutive quarters in a row.

    Made a profit selling carbon credits, but not much else. BFD. Not much of a market left given the competitors have added more BEV models in the EU


    As for range, Tesla has never achieved its stated EPA range estimates in any reviews, and sure given a big, fucking, battery capacity, Tesla scores for range.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/edmunds-every-single-tesla-weve-tested-has-failed-hit-its-epa-range-estimate

    ...but look how great the Tacan comes out.


    You mean multi motor design like this....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzwM8KE2L3I&feature=emb_logo


    Every auto company will be seeking carbon credits.  I’m not understanding the point you’re trying to make.

    The elephant in the room is Tesla’s network of AI machine learning connected to proprietary processors in their own vehicles, which no other auto company is even close to being able to replicate.  Their lead in on-board processing power and the network effect on autonomous driving machine learning is enormous.

    The substantial lead they have in several key EV technologies has the practical end result of achieving superior distance between charges, which is the number one attribute potential buyers look for in EVs.

    You may dislike Elon Musk and/or Tesla for various reasons.  And that is your prerogative.  But to dismiss and deny their substantial lead in key EV technologies is to bury one’s head in the sand.  One should hope competing EV auto manufacturers, including Apple, do not make the same mistake.

    FFS,

    Tesla isn't the leader in autonomous driving, and a Level 2, they don't actually have a "full self driving" mode, no matter the miles that they accumulate. 

    https://www.analyticsinsight.net/autonomous-vehicle-landscape-2020-leaders-self-driving-cars-race/

    Tesla doesn't have a substantial lead in any EV technologies. 

    Show me those million robotaxis that Elon promised in 2020.

    Oh wait. There hasn't been a single Tesla Robotaxi delivered.
    I’m sorry to say that the article you linked to is worthless.  It talks mostly about financials and provides little insight or understanding of the technologies underlying it all.  You can believe what you want.  But I’m not investing with you. Good luck.
    The thing is that we really do not know what is true or what is wrong.

    If Tesla was right, all of parties incl. Waymo, Mobil Eye etc. would follow Tesla.

    Tesla may have the best technology at the moment, but the biggest issue for Tesla is the safety issue. 

    Time will tell us who is right. 
  • Reply 35 of 41
    tmay said:
    Tesla has something on the order of 20% of the BEV market, right at 500,000 units sold for 2020, and as the number of BEV models increases in the market, Tesla will see its unit marketshare shrink, and that's going to be readily apparent in 2021.

    Worse for Tesla, Model S and Model X sales are being cannibalized by Model 3 and Model Y sales, which is driving down the ASP of Tesla vehicles.

    Numbers for 2020,

    345,000 Model 3
    80,000 Model Y
    55,000 combined Model S and Model X

    Apple won'f have any impact on Tesla sales for another 4 or 5 years, so all of that competition is coming from the "dinosaurs" like VW, Chinese EV companies, and a few new entrants which may or may not survive.

    Tesla's biggest fuckup, is not having an EV pickup until, at best, late next year, when Ford will be delivering an F-150 EV in volume production, not to mention GM with a Hummer model.
    The 20% is for 2019. Tesla is up to 26% of the BEV market. My guess it is around 50% of the revenue. 
    patchythepirate
  • Reply 36 of 41
    tmay said:
    longpath said:
    My running hypothesis is that Apple’s vehicle needs a mature version of the AR and VR work they’ve been working on and driverless functions needs to be operationally optional, not mandatory, as present rumors suggest. Anything less than that and all the high end chassis work being done by ex-Porsche people makes no sense. Why go to the trouble of designing a driver’s chassis if there’s no human driver to enjoy it? If the first generation being fully driverless is true, and not intentional misdirection, then it’s still a glorified robotaxi, and zero threat to the majority of BEV players in the market, especially Tesla, whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competitors. Conversely, those competitors are decades ahead of Tesla in figuring out how to mass produce their designs. Every design that Tesla has come out with has been a struggle to ramp up production, and as a recent conversation between Elon Musk and Sandy Munro confirmed, quality has suffered during each of those volume ramp ups.
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html
    So far, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market or enter it with any seriousness, such as Toyota, General Motors, and Hyundai, are either producing pouch type cells or making vaporware claims of solid state cells with zero corroboration of said claims, so I have to wonder where you got the ideas you're spouting. Show me some corroboration on any claims of solid state batteries (CNBC's corroboration-less rumor-mongering is not corroboration). Show me a factory that's starting to build up inventory of said cells to go into a vehicle. 

    Everyone using pouch type cells is either suffering with substandard battery pack peak output and charge times, or is resorting to 800V connections to reduce the amperage and resulting ohmic losses, which is to say they are working around the inherent limitations of their outdated battery tech.

    As far as hydrogen goes, unless Toyota is going to invest massively in refueling infrastructure, I genuinely see that as a pipe-dream. One of the smartest plays on Tesla's part was investing in recharging infrastructure, which remains a significant competitive advantage. Has Toyota made any such announcements or disclosures of such investments in their shareholders' reports, or is all that infrastructure supposed to just be a gift of the legacy oil companies?
    edited February 11 patchythepirate
  • Reply 37 of 41
    I don’t know if it matters or not that Apple is no longer a computer company but more of a lifestyle company, I think the headline is backwards. I think Apple may be one of Tesla’s biggest competitors.  As Elon and team continue to build out proprietary systems to support their efforts, be it for solar, space or EV, it won’t be too long before they can produce gadgets that muscle in on phone, tablet, wearable and pc territory - all integrated under the Tesla umbrella. For folks who have already made the big purchase of a car or solar system, it would be an easy sale for some relatively cheap personal electronics.
    patchythepirate
  • Reply 38 of 41
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,452member
    viclauyyc said:
    tmay said:
    I have to laugh at your statement about Tesla "whose battery and motor tech is a solid 5 years ahead of their competition". 

    That's decidedly uninformed bullshit. If anything, those auto manufacturers that have waited to enter the market, such as Toyota, will have better motor tech and Solid State Batteries in volume production before Tesla does, and if you actually think about it, Tesla is now hobbled with older designs, and those only in a few niches, and worse, still hasn't been able to generate a profit on vehicle sales.

    Toyota's profit for 2020; over $18 B, and close to 10 million vehicle sales, while Tesla struggles to 500K, and given that Toyota has shipped over 15 million HEV's since the first Prius, I'm guessing that they aren't really behind on motor technology, but have waited to enter the BEV market when they believe that they can generate a profit. Toyota is also a leader in hydrogen vehicles, which will see growth especially in long haul trucking. 

    Elon Musk's statement on hydrogen vehicles;

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/musk-calls-hydrogen-fuel-cells-stupid-but-tech-may-threaten-tesla.html
    You have no idea how expensive it is to use solid state battery. All the research done so far is in the lab, none for mass production. If Toyota use today’s solid state battery to build a EV, it will cost the same as a small jet.  

    Also, Toyota has their eyes on Hydrogen car, which is the 2nd generation now in Japan.  
    Yeah, Toyota builds the Mirai, but Toyota also builds fuel cell trucks,

    https://pressroom.toyota.com/first-heavy-duty-fuel-cell-electric-trucks-set-for-delivery-to-pilot-program-customers-at-ports-of-l-a-and-long-beach/

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Most-read-in-2020/Toyota-s-game-changing-solid-state-battery-en-route-for-2021-debut

    The above is self explanatory, but Toyota has stated that they will have production models by 2025.
  • Reply 39 of 41
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,452member

    steven n. said:
    tmay said:
    Tesla has something on the order of 20% of the BEV market, right at 500,000 units sold for 2020, and as the number of BEV models increases in the market, Tesla will see its unit marketshare shrink, and that's going to be readily apparent in 2021.

    Worse for Tesla, Model S and Model X sales are being cannibalized by Model 3 and Model Y sales, which is driving down the ASP of Tesla vehicles.

    Numbers for 2020,

    345,000 Model 3
    80,000 Model Y
    55,000 combined Model S and Model X

    Apple won'f have any impact on Tesla sales for another 4 or 5 years, so all of that competition is coming from the "dinosaurs" like VW, Chinese EV companies, and a few new entrants which may or may not survive.

    Tesla's biggest fuckup, is not having an EV pickup until, at best, late next year, when Ford will be delivering an F-150 EV in volume production, not to mention GM with a Hummer model.
    The 20% is for 2019. Tesla is up to 26% of the BEV market. My guess it is around 50% of the revenue. 
    My error. I was quoting EV numbers, not BEV numbers, but my point about Tesla losing BEV share this year is accurate. 

    https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1130931_vw-group-sold-almost-half-as-many-evs-as-tesla-in-2020-and-it-s-just-getting-warmed-up

    The Volkswagen Group capped off 2020 with 231,600 deliveries of battery-electric vehicles, or more than triple the 73,600 it delivered in 2019.

    It was a bright spot for the automaker whose total deliveries in 2020 declined 15.2% to 9,305,400 vehicles, due to the slowdown caused by Covid-19 restrictions.

    In comparison, Tesla, the current leader in the EV race (and most valuable automaker based on market cap), delivered 499,550 vehicles in 2020, up roughly a third on its 2019 result.

    The results suggest Tesla may not hold its leading position for long. It may even be overtaken by VW Group this year, which is only starting to provide some real competition in the EV space.

    edited February 11
  • Reply 40 of 41
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 2,050member
    tmay said:

    steven n. said:
    tmay said:
    Tesla has something on the order of 20% of the BEV market, right at 500,000 units sold for 2020, and as the number of BEV models increases in the market, Tesla will see its unit marketshare shrink, and that's going to be readily apparent in 2021.

    Worse for Tesla, Model S and Model X sales are being cannibalized by Model 3 and Model Y sales, which is driving down the ASP of Tesla vehicles.

    Numbers for 2020,

    345,000 Model 3
    80,000 Model Y
    55,000 combined Model S and Model X

    Apple won'f have any impact on Tesla sales for another 4 or 5 years, so all of that competition is coming from the "dinosaurs" like VW, Chinese EV companies, and a few new entrants which may or may not survive.

    Tesla's biggest fuckup, is not having an EV pickup until, at best, late next year, when Ford will be delivering an F-150 EV in volume production, not to mention GM with a Hummer model.
    The 20% is for 2019. Tesla is up to 26% of the BEV market. My guess it is around 50% of the revenue. 
    My error. I was quoting EV numbers, not BEV numbers, but my point about Tesla losing BEV share this year is accurate. 

    https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1130931_vw-group-sold-almost-half-as-many-evs-as-tesla-in-2020-and-it-s-just-getting-warmed-up

    The Volkswagen Group capped off 2020 with 231,600 deliveries of battery-electric vehicles, or more than triple the 73,600 it delivered in 2019.

    It was a bright spot for the automaker whose total deliveries in 2020 declined 15.2% to 9,305,400 vehicles, due to the slowdown caused by Covid-19 restrictions.

    In comparison, Tesla, the current leader in the EV race (and most valuable automaker based on market cap), delivered 499,550 vehicles in 2020, up roughly a third on its 2019 result.

    The results suggest Tesla may not hold its leading position for long. It may even be overtaken by VW Group this year, which is only starting to provide some real competition in the EV space.

    VW is doing a good job.  Better than BMW or MB.   It’s really the oil companies that have to worry.  By 2025 BEV production will be quadruple current numbers. 
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