This is so funny. The responses to my comment also reflect the same responses the phone Fan boys had back then to the iPhone. :-) „iPhone doesn’t do this or that. Can‘t even send and MMS not has 3G. Just a 2 megapixel camera etc etc.“
the only open question to me will be who will be the Apple and the Google im this car game. I think Tesla might be the Apple developing a perfect product, while Apple might be the product developing the car system that all those other car manufacturers might license.
For sure many of those car manufacturers will soon just be producing clones like the Samsung’s, Huaweis.
I think Apple would ONLY enter the car industry if they can proudly say that they have solved something important. From the top of my head:
Autonomous collective hop-on hop-off car sharing to reduce the number of single person vehicles on the road? A safe, hack proof, dead accurate standard for car-to-car communication for 100% crash prevention? Intelligent noise cancellation for an extremely pleasant in-car experience?
I think Apple’s TV strategy shows the way forward here and we’ll start to see their other product lines, the Mac in particular, folded into this model too. ‘TV’ can be software, service+software or service+software+hardware. An Apple-branded car is likely to be transport-as-a-service though they could provide autonomous driving (or even just infotainment) systems for other brands. VW probably aren’t worried as they, like most other car manufacturers, suck at the technology & CX required to take cars to smart cars and Apple doesn’t. They know they’ll be partners in some form or other.
The automotive area is the most conservative sector, where you will never see another Foxconn.
Apple will have a difficulty to finde one car maker, who is willing to make cars for Apple. I highly doubt it.
Not quite true. There are "white box" car manufacturers. There are plenty of "car models" where the only thing that distinguishes them is the brand sticker. The problem is Apple's terms.
1. Apple wants someone with real expertise to help them build a cutting edge car using difficult to get or even custom made components. White box car manufacturers make generic automobiles using standard parts.
2. Apple wants to pay their "car partners" the same that they pay their electronics partners: barely enough for them to eke out a profit even under the most ideal circumstances. As I mentioned earlier, that would be fine for Toyota, Kia and the rest if they were allowed to benefit from Apple's technology or marketing: if they could take things from the Apple Car and to use in their own vehicles to compete not so much against Apple but Ford, GM etc. But Apple won't allow that.
Apple could find a partner tomorrow if they were willing to either pay more money or share their tech. Otherwise, Apple's only takers will be desperate entities looking for any ray of hope to avoid going out of business. While such entities exist similar to 1. they would be unable to help Apple build the sort of car they want to make anyway.
I highly doubt it:
1. OEMs are proud of themselves. You have never seen any OEMs dominating worldwide with a significant exposure from the current market share (VW groupe has 10%!). The localization is too strong (Most cars in France are from France, most cars in the US are from the USA etc.).
2. OEMs have already anticipated what is coming in the future and where to make money in the future - They already know that it is not possible to make money by making and selling cars. They consider their future cars as "rolling smartphones" and they want to take their cakes by providing their own OS system & their own subsriptions via service.
3. Having mentioned the point 2, I highly doubt why OEMs should make cars for Apple, where OEMs will not get any knowledges regarding software skills from Apple. There is no benefit for them to make cars for Apple.
Apple may find some car makers like Magna, but Magna does not have an US plant for a car production. Ford and Volvo are already with Google. GM is partnered with Microsoft (although it is rather a cloud business). VW is trying to make their own OS system. Daimler is launching their OS system (MBux). I am not sure for BMW, but BMW is making some progresses for sure.
Chinese automakers may come to the question, but under current political circumstances, I am sure that Apple may skip it (Joe Biden would not like it).
These statements from VW CEO are very similar to what the CEOs of Nokia, Blackberry and Microsoft said about the iPhone when it was unveiled in 2007. time will tell if VW will be as forgotten as Nokia and Blackberry.
Actually, VW has the best potential to be the best on the market if VW could rule their software issue and could generate a competitive OS system.
Just imagine, VW could bring out an OS system, which work for VW, Audi, Skoda and other subsidiaries like Apple is doing with iPhone, iPad, Mac, watch etc.
This network effect will bring VW to the No. 1.
If you sell your VW and buy Audi, your data still exists and you do not have to start from zero because their OS system work for all subsidiaries.
In this case, Apple must speed up to make a common agreement with any other OEMs or Magna. Apple has no time and time is ticking.
The automotive area is the most conservative sector, where you will never see another Foxconn.
Apple will have a difficulty to finde one car maker, who is willing to make cars for Apple. I highly doubt it.
That's the thing. Creating a brand new OS from scratch isn't a joke. It's even more difficult than building a car from scratch. So many companies have tried this and failed. All of the custom OS that you see like Huawei's Harmony OS are just forked versions of Android. The OS ecosystem is so matured and integrated that even Microsoft failed to make a dent in the mobile market and had to eventually close it's mobile plans. And platform (OS) is really everything. Even tech giants like Facebook had to bow down in front of the platform (iOS). That's why Apple and Google are in a very unique and lucrative position in the tech industry, that's unmatched.
Totally agree with you. However, the strategy of OEMs would be to reject Apple as long as Apple gives up. If they are not willing to make Apple cars, Apple would be out of the competition by assuming that Apple will not buy an OEM.
As I said, time is running and ticking at the moment. The time is against Apple.
I currently work in the automotive area and I cannot imagine that Apple will find one OEM, which is willing to make cars for Apple.
The automotive market is a completely different animal and there will be no next Foxconn.
I am excited to get some "official" news in the future how Apple would handle this challenge.
Are saying that OEMs would boycott Apple just so that they can maintain their existing customers? Doesn't make sense! This is business, not a family show where companies care about each other. If any OEM sees money in doing business with Apple, they will do it! Sure, existing car manufacturers might not want to partner because that will dilute their brand image. Though I think someone will eventually do it. Automotive industry is a fierce industry, and not every car company is killing it. And even if no car manufacturer agrees to manufacture for Apple, contract manufacturers like Magna are always there.
The issue is that Apple is looking for a car maker, which is willing to be the next Foxconn.
No car maker will want to be the next Foxconn. The margin is low.
As I already mentioned: Every single car maker cannot make money by only making cars.
Car makers are currently doing their best to make their own OS system. If it will be successful, it is another question. Only time will give us the answer.
These statements from VW CEO are very similar to what the CEOs of Nokia, Blackberry and Microsoft said about the iPhone when it was unveiled in 2007. time will tell if VW will be as forgotten as Nokia and Blackberry.
Actually, VW has the best potential to be the best on the market if VW could rule their software issue and could generate a competitive OS system.
Just imagine, VW could bring out an OS system, which work for VW, Audi, Skoda and other subsidiaries like Apple is doing with iPhone, iPad, Mac, watch etc.
This network effect will bring VW to the No. 1.
If you sell your VW and buy Audi, your data still exists and you do not have to start from zero because their OS system work for all subsidiaries.
In this case, Apple must speed up to make a common agreement with any other OEMs or Magna. Apple has no time and time is ticking.
The automotive area is the most conservative sector, where you will never see another Foxconn.
Apple will have a difficulty to finde one car maker, who is willing to make cars for Apple. I highly doubt it.
That's the thing. Creating a brand new OS from scratch isn't a joke. It's even more difficult than building a car from scratch. So many companies have tried this and failed. All of the custom OS that you see like Huawei's Harmony OS are just forked versions of Android. The OS ecosystem is so matured and integrated that even Microsoft failed to make a dent in the mobile market and had to eventually close it's mobile plans. And platform (OS) is really everything. Even tech giants like Facebook had to bow down in front of the platform (iOS). That's why Apple and Google are in a very unique and lucrative position in the tech industry, that's unmatched.
You realise neither Apple nor Google created iOS or Android from scratch? NeXT didn't even create NextStep from scratch, it was forked from BSD. I imagine most car companies will use a variant on Android, as many do now.
VW chief 'not afraid' of 'Apple Car' entering the market
Wait a minute, it is strange but it sounds familiar to me.....did I hear this ever before ......?
Oh yeah, I remember now! Didn’t the chiefs of companies like Black Berry, Nokia en other established at that time phone manufacturers said the same by the introduction of the iPhone?
"We've learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone," Ed Colligan apparently laughed about with John Markoff last Thursday morning. "PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in."
I think Apple would ONLY enter the car industry if they can proudly say that they have solved something important. From the top of my head:
Autonomous collective hop-on hop-off car sharing to reduce the number of single person vehicles on the road? A safe, hack proof, dead accurate standard for car-to-car communication for 100% crash prevention? Intelligent noise cancellation for an extremely pleasant in-car experience?
I’m sure there’s a lot to challenge...
Apple takes great pride in its privacy protection, but car-to-car communication REQUIRES some data about your location being communicated around you for other cars to see and read, unencrypted. Car communication for safety goes against the whole idea of perfect privacy. It's an area where hackers will be quick to try to exploit. I suspect that Google and Apple will come together for some sort of car safety protocol that is similar to the protocol they came up with for COVID-19. Unless you have a universal protocol, or a monopoly, there will need to be a shared protocol.
And besides, there will ALWAYS be cars on the road without a device that transmits its location. Guaranteed. For example, a car's transmitting device could break down. Or two cars could be crashed on the road and their transmitters stop working.
However you just got me thinking. I think it's possible for Apple cars to recognize pedestrians on the road near your car if the pedestrians are carrying iPhones (or in some cases, maybe even AirTags) because iPhones can accurately communicate their exact location to nearby devices. This could be one of the big secrets Apple has yet to reveal. I think I've just revealed a billion dollars worth of Apple's future business secrets. I hope none of Apple's competitors read this post. Don't spread this around. In fact, this has got me thinking about a brand new device Apple could build that's simply a 100-meter-wide location transmitter, like a powered AirTag, called AirTag Pro. This would make autonomous vehicles and pedestrians around them much safer. Steve Jobs should have hired me. But I'll settle for Elon Musk.
VW died after the the various class actions for poor engineering and its not worried about apple making a car? VW has yet to respond to the Tesla threat shrinking their relevancy as a car maker. The contradiction of their lack of fear is entertaining. Relic soon.
The reality about cars is there is a diversity of companies who offer a diversity of car types and there is a big diversity of car buyers who choose to buy a particular car for many many different reasons. No one car maker dominates the market. If Apple decides to enter the market with its own car they'll find their buyers. No doubt price will be a factor as it is for many other product types and there will be a lot of less expensive cars offered by other companies... and more expensive ones too. We see that today and it'll probably be like that for quite a while.
Unless of course the Apple's car can fly, and in that case all bets are off.
You realise neither Apple nor Google created iOS or Android from scratch? NeXT didn't even create NextStep from scratch, it was forked from BSD. I imagine most car companies will use a variant on Android, as many do now.
No. While NeXT did not make NextStep and then OpenStep from scratch, it is not a fork of BSD. The Next stuff is based on a Mach kernel. Not a BSD Kernel. They created a kernel interface that used the BSD APIs so that they could easily port higher level stuff over and for example, used a BSD user land (shells and libs etc). I don’t know which Mach originally was used but my understanding is that OS X was a Mach 2 and Mach 3 hybrid. And probably still is. It is now called xnu (since Apple took over) and the details are here
VW died after the the various class actions for poor engineering and its not worried about apple making a car? VW has yet to respond to the Tesla threat shrinking their relevancy as a car maker. The contradiction of their lack of fear is entertaining. Relic soon.
Where have you been? VW has long recovered and has come out strong with BEV. Id3 is big in Europe and Id4 will be in the US this year. Also Audi has the e-tron and soon the e-tron GT (ignoring their 2016-2018 or 2019 A3 e-tron PHEV, which I happen to drive.) VW is selling a ton of cars in the US (compared to earlier efforts) and while their market share in the US is small, it has been steadily increasing. Worldwide they are in the top 2 or 3 makers. #1 in some measures (Toyota shipped fewer units but had higher revenue slightly last reported year). This is speaking of the VW Group, which includes VW, Audi, Porsche, SEAT, Skoda, and others.
These statements from VW CEO are very similar to what the CEOs of Nokia, Blackberry and Microsoft said about the iPhone when it was unveiled in 2007. time will tell if VW will be as forgotten as Nokia and Blackberry.
Actually, VW has the best potential to be the best on the market if VW could rule their software issue and could generate a competitive OS system.
Just imagine, VW could bring out an OS system, which work for VW, Audi, Skoda and other subsidiaries like Apple is doing with iPhone, iPad, Mac, watch etc.
This network effect will bring VW to the No. 1.
If you sell your VW and buy Audi, your data still exists and you do not have to start from zero because their OS system work for all subsidiaries.
In this case, Apple must speed up to make a common agreement with any other OEMs or Magna. Apple has no time and time is ticking.
The automotive area is the most conservative sector, where you will never see another Foxconn.
Apple will have a difficulty to finde one car maker, who is willing to make cars for Apple. I highly doubt it.
That's the thing. Creating a brand new OS from scratch isn't a joke. It's even more difficult than building a car from scratch. So many companies have tried this and failed. All of the custom OS that you see like Huawei's Harmony OS are just forked versions of Android. The OS ecosystem is so matured and integrated that even Microsoft failed to make a dent in the mobile market and had to eventually close it's mobile plans. And platform (OS) is really everything. Even tech giants like Facebook had to bow down in front of the platform (iOS). That's why Apple and Google are in a very unique and lucrative position in the tech industry, that's unmatched.
You realise neither Apple nor Google created iOS or Android from scratch? NeXT didn't even create NextStep from scratch, it was forked from BSD. I imagine most car companies will use a variant on Android, as many do now.
As I said earlier, it's not just about creating an OS. It's also about its integration and maturity. Apple is going to focus heavily on integration of its car with your Apple ID, which means seamless syncing between user's iPhone, Macbook and the car. Even if VW or other car manufacturers are able to create an OS, they won't have that integration advantage that Apple has.
Well of-course, if there's an Apple car, it for sure won't compete with VW or most other car makers. In fact, it'd entirely unclear who it would compete with. Probably not any consumer car.
These statements from VW CEO are very similar to what the CEOs of Nokia, Blackberry and Microsoft said about the iPhone when it was unveiled in 2007. time will tell if VW will be as forgotten as Nokia and Blackberry.
Yeah - because building a computer phone is exactly the same as building a car
Badge engineering anything like a Kia or Hyundai to be an Apple Car will fail big time (ask what did for GM and Chrysler)
Apple would be well advised to stay well away from building a car and stick to putting there tech into a car built by a company that knows what it takes to build a car
These statements from VW CEO are very similar to what the CEOs of Nokia, Blackberry and Microsoft said about the iPhone when it was unveiled in 2007. time will tell if VW will be as forgotten as Nokia and Blackberry.
So, your comments are based on the idea that because Apple has a huge hit with the iPhone, that must mean that Apple will know how to build a great car and apparently current auto manufacturers have no idea at all what they are doing? I do enjoy my iPhones but does that mean that I want an Apple car? Not necessarily. It’s truly amazing to read some of the comments here and elsewhere that imply that only Apple knows how to make great things and that apparently nobody else knows what they are doing. I have been a fan of Apple computers for many years but do I think that everything in my house or driveway should have an Apple logo on it? No.
Exactly
Building a car requires a level of engineering skill and knowledge that does not exist at Apple
And unless Apple plan to release a cheap non luxury car for the Everyman partnering with Kia or Hyundai isn't going to produce anything ground breaking
A poorer person might be able to stretch to by an iPhone - they still don't drive a Porsche/Audi/BMW/Mercedes (not that you'd get anything that could compete with those brands from Kia or Hyundai)
"We've learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone," Ed Colligan apparently laughed about with John Markoff last Thursday morning. "PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in."
Controversial opinion, but Ed Colligan was right (a little bit at least) Apple didn't just walk in, they took a couple of iterations to get a product that could do what Palm were doing at the time. The first iPhone had one hell of an interface, but it was missing a lot of functions, most notably a method for installing additional applications.
Plus, the original iPhone was a decent seller (after the price cut), but it didn't take over the industry, later iPhones did that.
Whether the automotive industry will be so amenable to that iterative approach I don't know. People tend to keep cars for more than a couple of years.
... is to have a breakthrough self-driving AI that is orders of magnitude better than what the other manufacturers offer,
It's not the quality of AI that we should speak about. It's the six official levels of autonomy. Tesla is only at level 2. The chief researcher of IIHS says that "it's important to note that none of these vehicles is capable of driving safely on its own..."
Three car companies are introducing level 3 cars in 2021: Daimler, Honda, & BMW. Note that Tesla isn't even listed there.
Each of the six levels (five if you don't count level zero) is useful. I think it starts to get fairly helpful at level 3, where you could probably read a book while driving, but level 4 and up is required if you want to be able to be in the back seat while driving.
In 2019 Tesla promised that they would have level 5 autonomy by the end of 2019. But they still aren't at level 3. I wish someone would hold Musk responsible for breaking this promise.
Comments
the only open question to me will be who will be the Apple and the Google im this car game. I think Tesla might be the Apple developing a perfect product, while Apple might be the product developing the car system that all those other car manufacturers might license.
Autonomous collective hop-on hop-off car sharing to reduce the number of single person vehicles on the road? A safe, hack proof, dead accurate standard for car-to-car communication for 100% crash prevention? Intelligent noise cancellation for an extremely pleasant in-car experience?
I’m sure there’s a lot to challenge...
An Apple-branded car is likely to be transport-as-a-service though they could provide autonomous driving (or even just infotainment) systems for other brands.
VW probably aren’t worried as they, like most other car manufacturers, suck at the technology & CX required to take cars to smart cars and Apple doesn’t. They know they’ll be partners in some form or other.
1. OEMs are proud of themselves. You have never seen any OEMs dominating worldwide with a significant exposure from the current market share (VW groupe has 10%!). The localization is too strong (Most cars in France are from France, most cars in the US are from the USA etc.).
2. OEMs have already anticipated what is coming in the future and where to make money in the future - They already know that it is not possible to make money by making and selling cars. They consider their future cars as "rolling smartphones" and they want to take their cakes by providing their own OS system & their own subsriptions via service.
3. Having mentioned the point 2, I highly doubt why OEMs should make cars for Apple, where OEMs will not get any knowledges regarding software skills from Apple.
There is no benefit for them to make cars for Apple.
Apple may find some car makers like Magna, but Magna does not have an US plant for a car production. Ford and Volvo are already with Google. GM is partnered with Microsoft (although it is rather a cloud business). VW is trying to make their own OS system. Daimler is launching their OS system (MBux). I am not sure for BMW, but BMW is making some progresses for sure.
Chinese automakers may come to the question, but under current political circumstances, I am sure that Apple may skip it (Joe Biden would not like it).
No car maker will want to be the next Foxconn. The margin is low.
As I already mentioned: Every single car maker cannot make money by only making cars.
Car makers are currently doing their best to make their own OS system. If it will be successful, it is another question. Only time will give us the answer.
"We've learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone," Ed Colligan apparently laughed about with John Markoff last Thursday morning. "PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in."
Palm's Ed Colligan laughs off iPhone
https://www.engadget.com/2006-11-21-palms-ed-colligan-laughs-off-iphone.html
And besides, there will ALWAYS be cars on the road without a device that transmits its location. Guaranteed. For example, a car's transmitting device could break down. Or two cars could be crashed on the road and their transmitters stop working.
However you just got me thinking. I think it's possible for Apple cars to recognize pedestrians on the road near your car if the pedestrians are carrying iPhones (or in some cases, maybe even AirTags) because iPhones can accurately communicate their exact location to nearby devices. This could be one of the big secrets Apple has yet to reveal. I think I've just revealed a billion dollars worth of Apple's future business secrets. I hope none of Apple's competitors read this post. Don't spread this around. In fact, this has got me thinking about a brand new device Apple could build that's simply a 100-meter-wide location transmitter, like a powered AirTag, called AirTag Pro. This would make autonomous vehicles and pedestrians around them much safer. Steve Jobs should have hired me. But I'll settle for Elon Musk.
Unless of course the Apple's car can fly, and in that case all bets are off.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/XNU
Why should he repent?
Badge engineering anything like a Kia or Hyundai to be an Apple Car will fail big time (ask what did for GM and Chrysler)
Apple would be well advised to stay well away from building a car and stick to putting there tech into a car built by a company that knows what it takes to build a car
Exactly
Building a car requires a level of engineering skill and knowledge that does not exist at Apple
And unless Apple plan to release a cheap non luxury car for the Everyman partnering with Kia or Hyundai isn't going to produce anything ground breaking
A poorer person might be able to stretch to by an iPhone - they still don't drive a Porsche/Audi/BMW/Mercedes (not that you'd get anything that could compete with those brands from Kia or Hyundai)
Plus, the original iPhone was a decent seller (after the price cut), but it didn't take over the industry, later iPhones did that.
Whether the automotive industry will be so amenable to that iterative approach I don't know. People tend to keep cars for more than a couple of years.