Apple TV+ may have 35.6M users by 2026, TV analysts predict

AppleInsiderAppleInsider
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in iPod + iTunes + AppleTV
Apple TV+ could hit 35.6 million users by the end of 2026, roughly seven years after it debuted, according to estimates published by a television research firm.

Credit: Apple
Credit: Apple


The analysis firm, Digital TV Research, has released a report predicting subscriber and user numbers for the largest streaming platforms. According to the report, seen by The Hollywood Reporter, three platforms will control nearly half of the video-on-demand market by 2026.

Disney+, for example, could hit 284.2 million subscribers in 2026. That would eclipse the analysts' expectations for Netflix, which it says will reach 270.7 million users by the end of the same year.

Additionally, the firm predicts that Amazon Prime will reach 243.4 million users by the end of 2026, followed by China's Tencent and iQiyi brands. HBO could hit 76.3 million users in the same timespan, while Apple TV+ could reach 35.6 million.

Overall, global subscriptions to video-on-demand services will increase by 491 million between 2021 and 2026. It could reach a total of 1.64 billion globally by then, Digital TV Research projects. China and the U.S. will account for about 49% of the total.

Although a critical success by some measures, Apple has yet to report subscriber numbers for Apple TV+. Interestingly, research firm Statista estimated that Apple TV+ had about 40 million users by the end of 2020. Most of those users are on a free promotional trial, so the Digital TV Research estimates suggest that Apple TV+ will actually lose subscribers and see stagnant growth over the next five years.

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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 16
    BeatsBeats Posts: 3,073member
    Stupid predictions. Apple could have a huge show next year or Ted Lasso season 3 may have a crazy “must see” episode. We don’t know what hits are waiting.
    One thing’s for sure. Apple is not quitting.

    Also putting Prime against other video services is dumb as most people don’t even watch Prime video even when they have a subscription. 
    Ofergenovellellama
  • Reply 2 of 16
    libertyandfreelibertyandfree Posts: 145member
    To each his own since I love Prime Video and I watch it much more than Netflix.  Many of the Netflix shows are very violent or too much drug infested for my taste. 
  • Reply 3 of 16
    guyrguyr Posts: 50member
    Disney+ just increased their pricing monthly 8.99 -> 11.99 and annual 89.99 -> 119.99 here in Canada.  I don't have Netflix, but Disney+ and Prime have way more content than Apple - Prime try and show the same item in multiple categories to make it look like that have more - but Apple need to catch up on the content as they are still lagging.
    edited October 2021
  • Reply 4 of 16
    JapheyJaphey Posts: 1,758member
    How do they reach these conclusions? Neither article offered any incite. 

    Those numbers for Disney+ seem outrageously high. Nearly all the people I know that subscribe rarely watch it and are considering dropping it. The superhero bubble will eventually and inevitably burst and the Star Wars franchise has been irreparably ruined for many. Maybe Favreau can resuscitate it with his Mando-verse spin-offs, and maybe Spider-man can right the MCU ship…maybe. But those projections seem wildly optimistic. 

    Likewise, the projections for Apple TV+ seem way too low. Speaking not as a fanboy, but as a TV viewer, the ratio of quality content in relation to filler material is comparable only to HBO. Quality, critical praise, and word of mouth will surely attract higher numbers than predicted here. 
  • Reply 5 of 16
    JapheyJaphey Posts: 1,758member
    guyr said:
    Disney+ just increased their pricing monthly 8.99 -> 11.99 and annual 89.99 -> 119.99 here in Canada.  I don't have Netflix, but Disney+ and Prime have way more content than Apple - Prime try and show the same item in multiple categories to make it look like that have more - but Apple need to catch up on the content as they are still lagging.
    At least one new series or film each week in 2022 suggests they will do exactly that. 
    fastasleep
  • Reply 6 of 16
    slow n easyslow n easy Posts: 302member
    guyr said:
    Disney+ just increased their pricing monthly 8.99 -> 11.99 and annual 89.99 -> 119.99 here in Canada.  I don't have Netflix, but Disney+ and Prime have way more content than Apple - Prime try and show the same item in multiple categories to make it look like that have more - but Apple need to catch up on the content as they are still lagging.
    I don’t have Netflix or Disney+ but I do have Prime. It’s only true that Prime has way more content if you include 3rd party shows and movies. If you only include original content then they are mostly on par with one another even though Prime had a big head start. My guess is that Apple will have way more original content than Prime in a couple of years.
    Beats
  • Reply 7 of 16
    randominternetpersonrandominternetperson Posts: 3,081member
    Of they could have 200 million subscribers or zero subscribers.  5 years is a lifetime in Internet time.
  • Reply 8 of 16
    sirlance99sirlance99 Posts: 1,287member
    Beats said:
    Stupid predictions. Apple could have a huge show next year or Ted Lasso season 3 may have a crazy “must see” episode. We don’t know what hits are waiting.
    One thing’s for sure. Apple is not quitting.

    Also putting Prime against other video services is dumb as most people don’t even watch Prime video even when they have a subscription. 
    Or they could have no hits or must see episodes. Apple will do well but they are always going to be one of many as it’s all segmented. What’s the most talked about show right now and is being touted as the biggest streaming hit ever? Squid Game on Netflix. Before that it was the Mandalorian on Disney. And Ted Laso on Apple. They will all have their hits and be just fine. No one streaming service, including Apple, will be the de facto dominant streaming service as they will all have different things everyone wants. No one is going to have it all. 
    fastasleepBeats
  • Reply 9 of 16
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 6,376member
    libertyandfree said:
    To each his own since I love Prime Video and I watch it much more than Netflix.  Many of the Netflix shows are very violent or too much drug infested for my taste. 
    Right, and there's nothing with violence and drugs on Prime and Netflix totally forces you to watch content you don't want to see.
  • Reply 10 of 16
    BeatsBeats Posts: 3,073member
    sirlance99 said:
    Beats said:
    Stupid predictions. Apple could have a huge show next year or Ted Lasso season 3 may have a crazy “must see” episode. We don’t know what hits are waiting.
    One thing’s for sure. Apple is not quitting.

    Also putting Prime against other video services is dumb as most people don’t even watch Prime video even when they have a subscription. 
    Or they could have no hits or must see episodes. Apple will do well but they are always going to be one of many as it’s all segmented. What’s the most talked about show right now and is being touted as the biggest streaming hit ever? Squid Game on Netflix. Before that it was the Mandalorian on Disney. And Ted Laso on Apple. They will all have their hits and be just fine. No one streaming service, including Apple, will be the de facto dominant streaming service as they will all have different things everyone wants. No one is going to have it all. 

    And that is exactly my point. These analysts wouldn’t have predicted Squid Game 6 months ago. To predict 5 years from now is ridiculous.

    In 5 years Ted Lasso could be forgotten and some Anime could be Apple’s mega hit while Squid Game is ruined by season 4.

    Anything is possible in just 6 months imagine 5 years. 
  • Reply 11 of 16
    electorelector Posts: 56member
    I personally had a free year of Apple TV and dropped it after 3 days.

    Although I love Apple products I found nothing of real interest to me. and the service was such that navigation of it was difficult
    due to it showing what was already available to me versus what they were offering.

    I highly doubt those numbers are going to be realized. Amazon and Hulu are far superior. And although we have Disney+ we as stated above very rarely view it.

    (sorry if my forum post repeats, but sometimes it kicks me out after replying or posting)

  • Reply 12 of 16
    CarmBCarmB Posts: 70member
    What I like is Apple charging the least for its service and sticking with original content. Apple charges an amount that is suited to it being something you add on to whatever else you subscribe to because there is enough content to justify paying that little bit more. Truth is, I am focused on the original content offered by the assorted services so having a legacy element tossed in at a cost is not something I want. I prefer Apple’s approach and Apple is positioned to take that approach because it’s streaming service is a small portion of what Apple does. Good move, though. Lots of attention to the brand generated and long-term there is additional profit to be made from owning appealing titles. It’s not just revenue generated from subscribers. Media is also sold in other forms and long-term there is potential for more revenue still. Even if Apple pulled the plug on AppleTV+ after a couple of years, there would still be the potential of recovering its costs by offering its properties in other forms. Virtually no risk provided the properties themselves have merit, as some already produced do. 
    Beats
  • Reply 13 of 16
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 6,376member
    elector said:
    I personally had a free year of Apple TV and dropped it after 3 days.

    Although I love Apple products I found nothing of real interest to me. and the service was such that navigation of it was difficult
    due to it showing what was already available to me versus what they were offering.
    User error: You failed to go to the AppleTV+ channel. If you had, it’s hard to imagine not finding at least one thing you’d like. 
  • Reply 14 of 16
    jimcordjimcord Posts: 27member
    Fastasleep, I literally just signed in to respond to you that I agree with the person you just called a liar I actually kept Apple TV+ for a year and literally found nothing on it I wanted to watch so I canceled it and I also have no use for arcade. So believe it or not there are some of us, for no particular reason I’ve just not found their program into our taste but to each their own. And before you think I am just some person who signed on who is not an Apple user, I am 58 years old and I have never owned a Windows computer whatsoever my journey with Apple starts all the way back to the Apple 2+. Many of their products have been of great interest to me and I value in my life and some have not, Apple TV plus just has a little interest to me but I wish them well in the future. Take care and peace to all 
  • Reply 15 of 16
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 6,376member
    jimcord said:
    Fastasleep, I literally just signed in to respond to you that I agree with the person you just called a liar I actually kept Apple TV+ for a year and literally found nothing on it I wanted to watch so I canceled it and I also have no use for arcade. So believe it or not there are some of us, for no particular reason I’ve just not found their program into our taste but to each their own. And before you think I am just some person who signed on who is not an Apple user, I am 58 years old and I have never owned a Windows computer whatsoever my journey with Apple starts all the way back to the Apple 2+. Many of their products have been of great interest to me and I value in my life and some have not, Apple TV plus just has a little interest to me but I wish them well in the future. Take care and peace to all 
    I literally do not care.
  • Reply 16 of 16
    elijahgelijahg Posts: 2,730member
    jimcord said:
    Fastasleep, I literally just signed in to respond to you that I agree with the person you just called a liar I actually kept Apple TV+ for a year and literally found nothing on it I wanted to watch so I canceled it and I also have no use for arcade. So believe it or not there are some of us, for no particular reason I’ve just not found their program into our taste but to each their own. And before you think I am just some person who signed on who is not an Apple user, I am 58 years old and I have never owned a Windows computer whatsoever my journey with Apple starts all the way back to the Apple 2+. Many of their products have been of great interest to me and I value in my life and some have not, Apple TV plus just has a little interest to me but I wish them well in the future. Take care and peace to all 
    I literally do not care.
    You say as you spent the time to tell someone they're wrong for not liking anything on AppleTV+, then spent the time to post that you "literally do not care". Have some respect you toad.
    edited October 2021
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