Apple grew Mac shipments & marketshare in strong fourth quarter for PCs

Comments

• Reply 1 of 5

  tht Posts: 5,443member

  January 12, 2022 7:34PM

  Wonder when this pandemic boost to PC sales is going to end. There's probably a long tail from it all the way through 2022. Wonder if someone tracks sales of computer desks as a sign for when this growth ends.

  
• Reply 2 of 5

  MacsWithPenguins Posts: 82member

  January 12, 2022 8:41PM

  tht said:

  Wonder when this pandemic boost to PC sales is going to end. There's probably a long tail from it all the way through 2022. Wonder if someone tracks sales of computer desks as a sign for when this growth ends.

  There are several things at once here: PC sales are through the roof from bored gamers being in lockdown, chip shortages mean some graphics card and custom-built PC buyers are still waiting in line to buy their 2020 computer that has not arrived yet (people are still waiting for RTX 30xx cards made by Nvidia but only available from scalpers), and large-sized non-Enterprise customers are buying a ton of M1 Max laptops from Apple for developers, but the shortage and waiting does make me think M2 Max in 2023 will still sell well to customers who had to wait beyond what they planned.

  edited January 2022
• Reply 3 of 5

  nadriel Posts: 92member

  January 14, 2022 3:27PM

  MacsWithPenguins said:

  tht said:

  Wonder when this pandemic boost to PC sales is going to end. There's probably a long tail from it all the way through 2022. Wonder if someone tracks sales of computer desks as a sign for when this growth ends.

  There are several things at once here: PC sales are through the roof from bored gamers being in lockdown, chip shortages mean some graphics card and custom-built PC buyers are still waiting in line to buy their 2020 computer that has not arrived yet (people are still waiting for RTX 30xx cards made by Nvidia but only available from scalpers), and large-sized non-Enterprise customers are buying a ton of M1 Max laptops from Apple for developers, but the shortage and waiting does make me think M2 Max in 2023 will still sell well to customers who had to wait beyond what they planned.

  I'm in the latter category, got a new job. Job provided the equipment that are exclusively for the work, so no real need for an expensive upgrade (the want is still here). I'm looking for M2 Pro/Max. M1 Pro/Max was almost what I wanted, but with these prices and having no absolute need for it -- it goes way down the priority list.
  
  I was just starting to browse the rumour mill when M2 Pro/Max will come out, is that your guess or is there corroboration on the timeline? Was kind of looking to get one for next Fall/Winter. I can wait for 2023, but thanks to COVID it would be no trouble to budget it for this year. 

  edited January 2022
• Reply 4 of 5

  tht Posts: 5,443member

  January 14, 2022 4:59PM

  nadriel said:

  MacsWithPenguins said:

  tht said:

  Wonder when this pandemic boost to PC sales is going to end. There's probably a long tail from it all the way through 2022. Wonder if someone tracks sales of computer desks as a sign for when this growth ends.

  There are several things at once here: PC sales are through the roof from bored gamers being in lockdown, chip shortages mean some graphics card and custom-built PC buyers are still waiting in line to buy their 2020 computer that has not arrived yet (people are still waiting for RTX 30xx cards made by Nvidia but only available from scalpers), and large-sized non-Enterprise customers are buying a ton of M1 Max laptops from Apple for developers, but the shortage and waiting does make me think M2 Max in 2023 will still sell well to customers who had to wait beyond what they planned.

  I'm in the latter category, got a new job. Job provided the equipment that are exclusively for the work, so no real need for an expensive upgrade (the want is still here). I'm looking for M2 Pro/Max. M1 Pro/Max was almost what I wanted, but with these prices and having no absolute need for it -- it goes way down the priority list.
  
  I was just starting to browse the rumour mill when M2 Pro/Max will come out, is that your guess or is there corroboration on the timeline? Was kind of looking to get one for next Fall/Winter. I can wait for 2023, but thanks to COVID it would be no trouble to budget it for this year. 

  The M1 Pro/Max MBP models came out in October 2021. The earliest that a successor MBP would come is Fall of 2022. 1 year. It is looking like Apple is on 1.5 year product cycles for the past few years, so it really could be Spring of 2023 for successor MBP models with new SoCs.
  
  Optimistically, these long cycles could be a consequence of the Apple Silicon transition and the pandemic all happening at the same time, and maybe Apple really means to have 1 year product cycles for the MBA, MBP and iMac models. So, the successor MBA with an "M2" is rumored for summer of 2022. That might leave room for successor MBP models with M2 Pro/Max in Fall of 2022. 
  
  There is perhaps some room for optimism as the successor Apple Silicon models will come out faster because all the tooling and processes are done (the chip floor plan and design, packaging, the qualification, etc). Ie, the pipeline is done, and it is a matter of getting the new chips through them. It should go faster. Who knows.
  
  So, I would think Spring of 2023 for M2 Pro/Max models, and be pleasantly surprised if it comes in Fall of 2022.
  
  Apple optimizes sales of its products to the extreme. There really is no technical or engineering reason for them not to release Mac mini models with the M1 Pro and M1 Max SoCs, and the higher end Intel Mac mini models can finally be retired. I think they are just waiting for the large iMac to be shipping first in order to get as many sales as possible with the large Apple Silicon iMac before a Mac mini with M1 Pro/Max SoCs are released.

  
• Reply 5 of 5

  MacsWithPenguins Posts: 82member

  January 24, 2022 2:07AM

  nadriel said:

  MacsWithPenguins said:

  tht said:

  Wonder when this pandemic boost to PC sales is going to end. There's probably a long tail from it all the way through 2022. Wonder if someone tracks sales of computer desks as a sign for when this growth ends.

  There are several things at once here: PC sales are through the roof from bored gamers being in lockdown, chip shortages mean some graphics card and custom-built PC buyers are still waiting in line to buy their 2020 computer that has not arrived yet (people are still waiting for RTX 30xx cards made by Nvidia but only available from scalpers), and large-sized non-Enterprise customers are buying a ton of M1 Max laptops from Apple for developers, but the shortage and waiting does make me think M2 Max in 2023 will still sell well to customers who had to wait beyond what they planned.

  I'm in the latter category, got a new job. Job provided the equipment that are exclusively for the work, so no real need for an expensive upgrade (the want is still here). I'm looking for M2 Pro/Max. M1 Pro/Max was almost what I wanted, but with these prices and having no absolute need for it -- it goes way down the priority list.
  
  I was just starting to browse the rumour mill when M2 Pro/Max will come out, is that your guess or is there corroboration on the timeline? Was kind of looking to get one for next Fall/Winter. I can wait for 2023, but thanks to COVID it would be no trouble to budget it for this year. 

  Sorry for the late reply. Just guessing from my part, but like @tht said: ”So, I would think Spring of 2023 for M2 Pro/Max models, and be pleasantly surprised if it comes in Fall of 2022”. I agree with that statement (just by studying Apple’s previous release cycles in the Tim Cook era). I believe it makes sense to release a Pro model a couple of months after the fall release of a new major macOS version and the first-party software updates (Final Cut Pro and Logic). One thing is getting the SoC variant ready and optimized for macOS. The other thing is, in the spring, the software should be less ”macOS x.0 problem-ridden” and so Apple could more confidently sell new, faster pro-grade hardware which is taking advantage of a more stable software offering. 

  
  

  It’s not really easy to predict these things anymore, though, with Apple using a potentially different roadmap for their own SoC compared to the Intel roadmap for which Apple had to wait until Intel was ready with a processor suitable for Apple’s computers.

  edited January 2022