Investors split about whether Apple can maintain growth, survey suggests
A small questionnaire sent out to a handful of Apple investors suggests that there isn't a consensus on whether the Cupertino tech giant can maintain its growth across 2022, according to JP Morgan.
Apple logo on building
In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee analyzed responses from a buy-side survey conducted after Apple's first quarter results. The survey only had 15 response, but Chatterjee says the data could "help where the Bull and Bear case for Apple lies in relation to FY22 performance."
The bull case, for example, would see Apple maintain double-digit revenue growth in 2022, led by execution-led upside to implied guidance for the upcoming March quarter. A bull case expects 10% to 15% revenue growth year-over-year in 2022.
In the survey, the majority of the 15 respondents believe that iPhone revenue growth is unlikely to be maintained at the rate that Apple saw in Q2. JP Morgan, however, believes that a stronger than expected mix, as well as better demand for iPhone 13 and iPhone SE models, drive upside to its current estimates for growth.
Despite the fact that investors believe iPhone growth will decelerate in the coming quarters, Chatterjee notes that Apple handset demand has consistently outperformed investor expectations. That supports expectations for iPhone volume upside.
On Services growth, expectations are higher. The majority of respondents in JP Morgan's small survey say they believe Apple will see growth in the 15% to 20% year-over-year range.
Most of the respondents are also "comfortable" with a 20x to 25x multiple range, suggesting Apple has achieved structural re-rating from a few years prior. Apple shares are currently trading at 26x earnings, implying a bull case of a multiple above 25x.
"The survey results indicate that the sentiment on Apple shares and the likelihood of outperformance this year relative to other Big Tech stocks remains balanced, with about only half of the respondents expecting Apple shares to outperform other Big Tech stocks," Chatterjee writes.
The analyst maintains his 12-month Apple price target of $210, based on a price-to-earnings multiple of 30x on his 2023 earnings estimate of $7.02.
Read on AppleInsider
Apple logo on building
In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee analyzed responses from a buy-side survey conducted after Apple's first quarter results. The survey only had 15 response, but Chatterjee says the data could "help where the Bull and Bear case for Apple lies in relation to FY22 performance."
The bull case, for example, would see Apple maintain double-digit revenue growth in 2022, led by execution-led upside to implied guidance for the upcoming March quarter. A bull case expects 10% to 15% revenue growth year-over-year in 2022.
In the survey, the majority of the 15 respondents believe that iPhone revenue growth is unlikely to be maintained at the rate that Apple saw in Q2. JP Morgan, however, believes that a stronger than expected mix, as well as better demand for iPhone 13 and iPhone SE models, drive upside to its current estimates for growth.
Despite the fact that investors believe iPhone growth will decelerate in the coming quarters, Chatterjee notes that Apple handset demand has consistently outperformed investor expectations. That supports expectations for iPhone volume upside.
On Services growth, expectations are higher. The majority of respondents in JP Morgan's small survey say they believe Apple will see growth in the 15% to 20% year-over-year range.
Most of the respondents are also "comfortable" with a 20x to 25x multiple range, suggesting Apple has achieved structural re-rating from a few years prior. Apple shares are currently trading at 26x earnings, implying a bull case of a multiple above 25x.
"The survey results indicate that the sentiment on Apple shares and the likelihood of outperformance this year relative to other Big Tech stocks remains balanced, with about only half of the respondents expecting Apple shares to outperform other Big Tech stocks," Chatterjee writes.
The analyst maintains his 12-month Apple price target of $210, based on a price-to-earnings multiple of 30x on his 2023 earnings estimate of $7.02.
Read on AppleInsider
Comments
(A[[;e is not a start-up... of course a start-up would require growth in the beginning.)
Apple make much more PROFIT every quarter than they can use - so they distribute it back to shareholders via buy-backs.
Personally I will be more than happy if AAPL share price averages exactly the same as a Nasdaq tracker. Even just keeping up with inflation would be fine for me. However, analysts slways under-estimate AAPL.
Personally I foresee a lot of Mac growth over the coming years.
So if Apple's growth were just a function of coming up with great products and the size of the market, I'd say easy peasy -- lots of growth ahead!
The trouble, though, is the whole geopolitical situation. We now see that dictators who make a lot of aggressive statements about how a neighboring country really belongs to them, and build up their militaries for the purpose of invading that country, ultimately really might invade that neighboring country. In other words, a Chinese invasion of TSMC (er, uh, Taiwan) in the next five years is a major, major risk to Apple's growth.