Apple's modem may not surface in iPhones until 2025
Qualcomm is likely to remain a supplier of modems to Apple for a few more years, analysts expect, with the prospect of an iPhone using an Apple-designed modem potentially pushed back to 2025 at the earliest.
Qualcomm modem chip
Chip maker Qualcomm is, thanks to a patent lawsuit settlement in 2019, a chief supplier of modems to Apple, but the iPhone maker is still coming up with its own version. However, it is thought there could be quite a while to wait before Apple actually switches to using one of its own creation.
In a note to investors by Haitong International Securities analyst Jeff Pu, seen by MacRumors, it is anticipated that the Qualcomm Snapdragon X75 modem will be used in the 2024 iPhone. The unannounced modem, taking over from the X70, will be made by TSMC using a 4nm process to introduce power efficiencies.
The iPhone 15, due in 2023, is reckoned to use the X70, which could provide download speeds of up to 10Gbps, as well as reduced power requirements.
The investor note correlates with the view of analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in July, who offered the iPhone 15 could continue to use Qualcomm modems.
Apple's fight to make a modem is a potentially lucrative opportunity for the company, including reducing cost savings and fine-tuning a modem for specific intended purposes through deeper integration with other components. It would also offer Apple a way to work without relying on a third party's decisions limiting or forcing Apple into using components in specific ways.
It has already thrown at least $1 billion at the problem with its purchase of Intel's modem arm, but it remains to be seen as to how much more it has to spend to reach its modem goal.
Read on AppleInsider
Qualcomm modem chip
Chip maker Qualcomm is, thanks to a patent lawsuit settlement in 2019, a chief supplier of modems to Apple, but the iPhone maker is still coming up with its own version. However, it is thought there could be quite a while to wait before Apple actually switches to using one of its own creation.
In a note to investors by Haitong International Securities analyst Jeff Pu, seen by MacRumors, it is anticipated that the Qualcomm Snapdragon X75 modem will be used in the 2024 iPhone. The unannounced modem, taking over from the X70, will be made by TSMC using a 4nm process to introduce power efficiencies.
The iPhone 15, due in 2023, is reckoned to use the X70, which could provide download speeds of up to 10Gbps, as well as reduced power requirements.
The investor note correlates with the view of analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in July, who offered the iPhone 15 could continue to use Qualcomm modems.
Apple's fight to make a modem is a potentially lucrative opportunity for the company, including reducing cost savings and fine-tuning a modem for specific intended purposes through deeper integration with other components. It would also offer Apple a way to work without relying on a third party's decisions limiting or forcing Apple into using components in specific ways.
It has already thrown at least $1 billion at the problem with its purchase of Intel's modem arm, but it remains to be seen as to how much more it has to spend to reach its modem goal.
Read on AppleInsider
Comments
https://www.strategyanalytics.com/strategy-analytics/blogs/components/rf-wireless/rf-and-wireless/2021/02/11/cmos-at-4-nm-enables-qualcomm-s-fastest-5g-modem-rf-solution
Intel managed to make a cellular modem but found it wasn't viable to make it profitable.
Cost to manufacture, time to market and probably a patent minefield outweigh not buying from existing manufacturers for now.
Apple doesn't even have to make the best modem, as long as the connection is stable with competitive bandwidth, that's all they need. They'd probably be able to improve battery efficiency vs Qualcomm, which would be good for the Watch on cellular.
If not, roll outs would be too expensive and spectrum needs to be sold too.
No one company will tow the 6G carriage. It will go through standards approval and a whole lot more and eventually the pieces will come together.
Apple purchased a fair amount of patents through the Intel deal but it has nowhere near the knowhow or capability to bring cutting edge communications infrastructure to market and maintain it. Apple is a CE company first and foremost. A modem is doable even if it takes some time but any modem will be subject to core patent licencing. Communications means commitment. Apple does not work that way.
If you want in on ICT infrastructure you need massive amounts of equipment to design and maintain.
As for 'buying' into that realm, I can't see any European companies getting approval from regulators. The biggest fish (Huawei) was actually a good bet for a US company like Apple. They offered to licence their entire 5G product portfolio (patent access and source code included) so that the US could get back into the game. That offer was rejected.
Obviously, Samsung is off limits for the same reasons as the top European companies.
OpenRAN wouldn't be of interest to Apple because the standards will still be bound by patents.
In short, it cannot go it alone on 6G (development of which has been underway for a couple of years now and won't arrive before 2030).
5.5G will come next.
It can squabble over patent licencing costs but little more.
Apple chafes at being tied to third party hardware, especially when Apple thinks that hardware is holding them back. That’s why Power PC->Intel->Apple Silicon. It’s also why they fight so hard against what they think are restrictive and burdensome patents, often the last to give in and settle. Let’s face it, patents are a double edged sword, protecting the inventor but slowing innovation. Why work to improve something if you’ll have to pay the base patent holder royalties?
At most, it can dip a toe into the water.
Huawei alone has almost 200,000 employees and a huge patent pool. Half of those employees are engineers and scientists involved in R&D.
It is still maintaining very old equipment to keep networks going. It deals with around 1,000,000 attempts to breach its systems per day.
That is not where Apple wants to be.
In reality, it looks as if the relevant ships have sailed.
Apple's SoCs have been good on raw performance but historically not as good in other areas (WiFi, ISP, 5G, GPS etc). They've been catching up over the last couple of generations.
AI capable IoT and industrial IoT are already coming to market. RISC-V is finding its feet and automobile SoCs are already shipping in numbers along with the necessary mobile data centre's, operating systems etc.
Automobile based AI sensing capabilities and associated computer hardware has also hit the market.
From a theoretical perspective, it's a worthy idea. But Apple is not going to follow that path until the culture undergoes a massive change.
Start with M series iPads, extend to MacBooks both tackling high volume products like the iPhone.