Trash Musk if you like but so far Space X is the only way American astronauts can get to the ISS other than aboard a Russian rocket. Boeing’s Starliner is still in the testing stages. As for EVs, Tesla is the progenitor of the class. Yes, the big car makers will eclipse Tesla at some point but they will do it on the backs of Tesla’s pioneering efforts. Like Jobs did for personal computing, Musk showed the way on both EVs and reusable rockets. Also like Jobs, Musk is a quirky character with an ego the size of Mount Rushmore.
Theodore Roosevelt said, "Far better it is to dare mighty things to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much."
Tesla weren't really pioneers for rockets or electric vehicles. They had some good first-to-market ideas for commercializing those technologies in years past but didn't really possess anything on the tech side that was all that unique. That's why competitors can catch up or surpass them when they actually apply themselves to do so. Tesla looks fairly stagnant right now.
A quick note about SpaceX. As lkrupp mentioned the only space company ever on planet Earth that has reusable rockets. SpaceX is on target to launch a total of 54 rockets this year mostly payload but they already have 2 crewed missions. The freakin' Artemis 1 has been sitting on the launch pad for months because of all the failures. Thanks, Orion, Boeing, Airbus, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Aerojet Rocketdyne, and NASA. SpaceX has launched 10 rockets since Artemis was supposed to launch.
I respect Elon Musk but he is becoming promise big but not fulfil. $30K EV, Million mile battery, going to Mars and what not. Every vehicle manufacturer in world coming after Tesla EV and coming fast. What if Apple decide to go all in EV, than what ?
I don’t disagree but look what has happened to EVs and the car market in general in the last 2 years -huge surge of interest in EVs drove demand way up. supply chain issues drove supply down across the industry. The average new car price is at $48k - higher than it’s ever been and car dealers are adding thousands of “additional dealer markup” to the price of new cars. Tesla has increased the price of their EVs to match the market - if they didn’t people would be criticizing them for missing out on the profits.
Trash Musk if you like but so far Space X is the only way American astronauts can get to the ISS other than aboard a Russian rocket. Boeing’s Starliner is still in the testing stages. As for EVs, Tesla is the progenitor of the class. Yes, the big car makers will eclipse Tesla at some point but they will do it on the backs of Tesla’s pioneering efforts. Like Jobs did for personal computing, Musk showed the way on both EVs and reusable rockets. Also like Jobs, Musk is a quirky character with an ego the size of Mount Rushmore.
Theodore Roosevelt said, "Far better it is to dare mighty things to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much."
Tesla weren't really pioneers for rockets or electric vehicles. They had some good first-to-market ideas for commercializing those technologies in years past but didn't really possess anything on the tech side that was all that unique. That's why competitors can catch up or surpass them when they actually apply themselves to do so. Tesla looks fairly stagnant right now.
Sounds kind of like Apple…
Elon Musk is eccentric if you want to put it nicely. He has many negative qualities, among them being perpetually overoptimistic. He has also done more to advance EVs than pretty much anyone else. Making statements about Tesla’s size vs Apple are completely in character for him, but what does it matter?
Perhaps Tesla won’t even be around in 10 years. Tesla is about to face huge competition in the auto industry by well established players. It’s not even clear if all electric, hybrid or hydrogen will win out. Or even how long ICE vehicles will be made, despite the rush to get rid of them which could be premature if these new auto technologies have their own problems that are unforeseen. Perhaps ICE vehicles will sell for many years to come, we’ll see. It’s both an exciting and scary time for auto companies. At one point many years back there were questions about Apple being able to stay in business and things got turned around. Big companies come and go also, not just small ones.
Haha, 5 years ago if you had said that Tesla was going to have 1/3rd the earnings of Toyota no one would have believed it was possible. Now it's a fact.
5 years from now, Toyota will be struggle-bus central, and Tesla will only continue to grow.
We'll see how well Tesla motors does here in the next year or two. Within the next year or two, more and more manufacturers will have fully electric vehicles on the road so Tesla won't really have much of an advantage anymore except for some self driving capabilities which other automakers are also catching up to them in regards to that as well. I haven't really seen Tesla expand much recently at all. They just keep putting out the same shitty quality vehicles year after year. Once the automakers start catching up with fully electric vehicles Tesla will really need to do something to differentiate itself from other brands or else it will become just another brand IMO.
Tesla has a long ways to go to beat Apple. Speaking of Apple, I'd be interested to see what this Apple car is and what it will do to a company like Tesla. Tesla could be the blackberry of mobile phones if Apple does another iPhone type release with a car in the coming years. Not saying it's gonna happen, but we'll just see what Apple comes out with and how well its accepted. Just like with iPhone, it may take a revision or two to get people really onboard.
We'll see how well Tesla motors does here in the next year or two. Within the next year or two, more and more manufacturers will have fully electric vehicles on the road so Tesla won't really have much of an advantage anymore except for some self driving capabilities which other automakers are also catching up to them in regards to that as well. I haven't really seen Tesla expand much recently at all. They just keep putting out the same shitty quality vehicles year after year. Once the automakers start catching up with fully electric vehicles Tesla will really need to do something to differentiate itself from other brands or else it will become just another brand IMO.
Tesla has a long ways to go to beat Apple. Speaking of Apple, I'd be interested to see what this Apple car is and what it will do to a company like Tesla. Tesla could be the blackberry of mobile phones if Apple does another iPhone type release with a car in the coming years. Not saying it's gonna happen, but we'll just see what Apple comes out with and how well its accepted. Just like with iPhone, it may take a revision or two to get people really onboard.
I think Tesla’s charging network gives it a distinct advantage today. I’m pretty excited about EVs in general, but I’m very concerned about the situation with charging networks. I see a lot of the newly built gasoline stations have put in a small row of EV charging stations, usually Tesla branded ones, but rarely see more than one or two cars parked at them.
If the number of EVs on the road increases even a small amount it seems like the current charging capacity will be overwhelmed. The cycle time on charging EVs is so long that we’d need to build drive-in movie theater sized charging facilities at nearly major highway exit. Hopefully the situation will change with new battery technology and reduced charging times.
Once the charging network field is leveled I think Tesla will be forced to up its game significantly. They may even have to hire some designers who didn’t previously work for Mattel or Tonka.
Trash Musk if you like but so far Space X is the only way American astronauts can get to the ISS other than aboard a Russian rocket. Boeing’s Starliner is still in the testing stages. As for EVs, Tesla is the progenitor of the class. Yes, the big car makers will eclipse Tesla at some point but they will do it on the backs of Tesla’s pioneering efforts. Like Jobs did for personal computing, Musk showed the way on both EVs and reusable rockets. Also like Jobs, Musk is a quirky character with an ego the size of Mount Rushmore.
Theodore Roosevelt said, "Far better it is to dare mighty things to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much."
Elon is trashing himself the Twitter fiasco and everything else connected to him is doing the job.
SpaceX is profitless, along with everything else connected to him except for Tesla, Twitter actually fits in.
Trash Musk if you like but so far Space X is the only way American astronauts can get to the ISS other than aboard a Russian rocket. Boeing’s Starliner is still in the testing stages. As for EVs, Tesla is the progenitor of the class. Yes, the big car makers will eclipse Tesla at some point but they will do it on the backs of Tesla’s pioneering efforts. Like Jobs did for personal computing, Musk showed the way on both EVs and reusable rockets. Also like Jobs, Musk is a quirky character with an ego the size of Mount Rushmore.
Theodore Roosevelt said, "Far better it is to dare mighty things to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much."
Tesla weren't really pioneers for rockets or electric vehicles. They had some good first-to-market ideas for commercializing those technologies in years past but didn't really possess anything on the tech side that was all that unique. That's why competitors can catch up or surpass them when they actually apply themselves to do so. Tesla looks fairly stagnant right now.
Thanks for enumerating "his achievements". Please just keep in mind his actual greatest achievement is hiring brilliant minds who rarely get any recognition because Musk is the ultimate glory seeker (and shit-poster.....Tweet, tweet)! His failures as a human being are mostly a result of his petulant childlike behavior and need for revenge (very much in the manner of a malicious narcissistic sociopath and too recent to forget "world leader"). He's a "clear and present danger". Wake up Muskavites and leave your fanboi idolatry behind you.
Perhaps Tesla won’t even be around in 10 years. Tesla is about to face huge competition in the auto industry by well established players. It’s not even clear if all electric, hybrid or hydrogen will win out. Or even how long ICE vehicles will be made, despite the rush to get rid of them which could be premature if these new auto technologies have their own problems that are unforeseen. Perhaps ICE vehicles will sell for many years to come, we’ll see. It’s both an exciting and scary time for auto companies. At one point many years back there were questions about Apple being able to stay in business and things got turned around. Big companies come and go also, not just small ones.
Tesla is already done marketshare wise in Europe, China, Korea, and Japan, is a never was in Australia, New Zealand, and the rest of the world can’t even afford EV’s at any price from any company anywhere.
The second wave of first world EV buyers won’t accept the bad fit and finish from Tesla, they didn’t accept Ford and GM cars of any description and they certainly won’t accept it from Tesla not at those prices with other choices becoming available. See what happened to the big American three in the early eighties fit/finish and price matters.
Haha, 5 years ago if you had said that Tesla was going to have 1/3rd the earnings of Toyota no one would have believed it was possible. Now it's a fact.
5 years from now, Toyota will be struggle-bus central, and Tesla will only continue to grow.
The depth and breadth of Tesla‘s technology development is under-appreciated by many. In Elon Musk, we have an applied physicist with a focus on development. Powerful combination.
For legacy auto ICE vehicle manufacturers, the transition is more difficult than they let on. Many in government and the press are active cheerleaders for an industry is transition. But with a few notable exceptions, the traditional auto makers are struggling and will continue to struggle.
Many of the lessons learned over the decades of ICE auto manufacturing did not translate well into EV manufacturing know how. In many ways Toyota, General Motors, Hyundai, and Volkswagen had to play catch-up with technologies that Tesla already well understood. Teslas EV cars were designed from the ground up with few assumptions about how automobiles should be designed and manufactured. The legacy ICE companies have largely used existing ICE platforms and re-purposed them for an EV power train, which results in a sub-optimal solution.
I doubt Tesla will go out of business or see its stock fall to $50, but overtake Apple in market cap. Unless something major happens, I just do not see how that is even remotely possible.
Market cap is partially based on future growth, Tesla had a P/E of 400 at one point and a $1.2t market cap, which is only half Apple's current market cap.
Growing earnings is harder but Tesla's earnings and revenue has been growing quickly:
If Tesla earnings continue to double each year for the next 2 years, this would put them at double Toyota and roughly 1/3 Apple. But if Tesla's P/E is 3x Apple like it is now, the market cap will be higher.
Tesla's current earnings are from 1 million vehicles. Toyota and VW sell around 10x this. There's a growth limit to every market but 4x is feasible for Tesla and that puts them in range of Apple's market cap. To reach a $4t market cap (Apple + Saudi Aramco), they'd have to reach Toyota/VW unit volume with the same margins, which is unlikely.
Haha, 5 years ago if you had said that Tesla was going to have 1/3rd the earnings of Toyota no one would have believed it was possible. Now it's a fact.
5 years from now, Toyota will be struggle-bus central, and Tesla will only continue to grow.
The depth and breadth of Tesla‘s technology development is under-appreciated by many. In Elon Musk, we have an applied physicist with a focus on development. Powerful combination.
For legacy auto ICE vehicle manufacturers, the transition is more difficult than they let on. Many in government and the press are active cheerleaders for an industry is transition. But with a few notable exceptions, the traditional auto makers are struggling and will continue to struggle.
Many of the lessons learned over the decades of ICE auto manufacturing did not translate well into EV manufacturing know how. In many ways Toyota, General Motors, Hyundai, and Volkswagen had to play catch-up with technologies that Tesla already well understood. Teslas EV cars were designed from the ground up with few assumptions about how automobiles should be designed and manufactured. The legacy ICE companies have largely used existing ICE platforms and re-purposed them for an EV power train, which results in a sub-optimal solution.
I’m not going to dispute that the transition from ICE to EV automobile production is not as smooth as the traditional ICE manufacturers would like, but they definitely have some distinct advantages over EV manufacturers who have no previous experience in large volume manufacturing. I know from industry insiders that some newer EV manufacturers are struggling mightily with scalability at the present time. At least the ICE manufacturers have long established supplier and OEM relationships that they can leverage to help them out. Additionally, the ICE companies have a history with the timing of capital investments needed to hit projected target dates.
I think some of the EV companies built prototypes and hand assembled a few early production press-release-ready vehicles before they realized they were years behind on being able to deliver at-scale. The new EV manufacturers are burning through cash at incredible rates. Tesla is fortunate that most of its struggles to attain their current level of scalability occurred before the worst of the supply chain woes. Tesla would probably be in serious trouble today if they were at the beginning of the Model 3 ramp-up. They may still be in trouble.
The ongoing constraints in the supply chain are adding to all manufacturer’s difficulties right now. Many of the suppliers and OEMs not only for materials, components, and subassemblies but also for automation equipment are struggling to meet demand and quoting very extended lead times on everything because their supply chains are vapor locked as well. Simultaneously, a lot of US companies are trying to repatriate manufacturing capability back to the US which is putting even more demands on the suppliers and OEMs, especially in the automation equipment industry.
Then there’s the little issue of worker shortages, not only on the product manufacturers but also on the suppliers and OEMs. I know firsthand that some of these companies are instituting incentive programs to try to keep their retirement-aged boomers from retiring for a couple more years and some are even having normally desk-bound salaried staff doing shifts in the factory. This is the first time I’ve ever seen (outside of the military) a call to “All hands on deck” truly meaning all hands are on deck, as in engineers, managers, directors, and even VPs.
Comments
Sounds kind of like Apple…
Elon Musk is eccentric if you want to put it nicely. He has many negative qualities, among them being perpetually overoptimistic. He has also done more to advance EVs than pretty much anyone else. Making statements about Tesla’s size vs Apple are completely in character for him, but what does it matter?
5 years from now, Toyota will be struggle-bus central, and Tesla will only continue to grow.
Tesla has a long ways to go to beat Apple. Speaking of Apple, I'd be interested to see what this Apple car is and what it will do to a company like Tesla. Tesla could be the blackberry of mobile phones if Apple does another iPhone type release with a car in the coming years. Not saying it's gonna happen, but we'll just see what Apple comes out with and how well its accepted. Just like with iPhone, it may take a revision or two to get people really onboard.
If the number of EVs on the road increases even a small amount it seems like the current charging capacity will be overwhelmed. The cycle time on charging EVs is so long that we’d need to build drive-in movie theater sized charging facilities at nearly major highway exit. Hopefully the situation will change with new battery technology and reduced charging times.
Once the charging network field is leveled I think Tesla will be forced to up its game significantly. They may even have to hire some designers who didn’t previously work for Mattel or Tonka.
SpaceX is profitless, along with everything else connected to him except for Tesla, Twitter actually fits in.
The second wave of first world EV buyers won’t accept the bad fit and finish from Tesla, they didn’t accept Ford and GM cars of any description and they certainly won’t accept it from Tesla not at those prices with other choices becoming available. See what happened to the big American three in the early eighties fit/finish and price matters.
Many of the lessons learned over the decades of ICE auto manufacturing did not translate well into EV manufacturing know how. In many ways Toyota, General Motors, Hyundai, and Volkswagen had to play catch-up with technologies that Tesla already well understood. Teslas EV cars were designed from the ground up with few assumptions about how automobiles should be designed and manufactured. The legacy ICE companies have largely used existing ICE platforms and re-purposed them for an EV power train, which results in a sub-optimal solution.
Growing earnings is harder but Tesla's earnings and revenue has been growing quickly:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/revenue
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/net-income
Apple's earnings and revenue growth is much lower:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/revenue
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/net-income
If Tesla earnings continue to double each year for the next 2 years, this would put them at double Toyota and roughly 1/3 Apple. But if Tesla's P/E is 3x Apple like it is now, the market cap will be higher.
Tesla's current earnings are from 1 million vehicles. Toyota and VW sell around 10x this. There's a growth limit to every market but 4x is feasible for Tesla and that puts them in range of Apple's market cap. To reach a $4t market cap (Apple + Saudi Aramco), they'd have to reach Toyota/VW unit volume with the same margins, which is unlikely.
I think some of the EV companies built prototypes and hand assembled a few early production press-release-ready vehicles before they realized they were years behind on being able to deliver at-scale. The new EV manufacturers are burning through cash at incredible rates. Tesla is fortunate that most of its struggles to attain their current level of scalability occurred before the worst of the supply chain woes. Tesla would probably be in serious trouble today if they were at the beginning of the Model 3 ramp-up. They may still be in trouble.
The ongoing constraints in the supply chain are adding to all manufacturer’s difficulties right now. Many of the suppliers and OEMs not only for materials, components, and subassemblies but also for automation equipment are struggling to meet demand and quoting very extended lead times on everything because their supply chains are vapor locked as well. Simultaneously, a lot of US companies are trying to repatriate manufacturing capability back to the US which is putting even more demands on the suppliers and OEMs, especially in the automation equipment industry.
Then there’s the little issue of worker shortages, not only on the product manufacturers but also on the suppliers and OEMs. I know firsthand that some of these companies are instituting incentive programs to try to keep their retirement-aged boomers from retiring for a couple more years and some are even having normally desk-bound salaried staff doing shifts in the factory. This is the first time I’ve ever seen (outside of the military) a call to “All hands on deck” truly meaning all hands are on deck, as in engineers, managers, directors, and even VPs.