iPhone 15 Pro rumored to get Thunderbolt connectivity

AppleInsider · November 17, 2022 1:36AM

As part of a larger move to the USB-C connector for the iPhone 15 lineup, Ming-Chi Kuo is predicting that the Pro models might get speedy Thunderbolt connectivity.

IPhone 15 might get a Thunderbolt port

While the iPhone has been able to shoot 4K video for a while now, getting the giant files off requires a great deal of patience. That may all change if what Ming-Chi Kuo is predicting for the iPhone 15 pans out.

In a series of Tweets on Wednesday night, the analyst and prolific leaker from Apple's supply chain says that his latest supply chain checks indicate that the entire iPhone 15 lineup will move to USB-C of some flavor or another.

(5/7)
My latest survey indicates all 2H23 new iPhones will abandon Lightning and change to USB-C, but only two high-end models (15 Pro & 15 Pro Max) will support the wired high-speed transfer, and the two standard ones (15 & 15 15 Plus) still support USB 2.0 same as Lightning.
-- (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo)
November 17, 2022

However, what he's calling the iPhone 15 and the iPhone 15 Plus will retain USB 2.0 speeds, the same as what shipped on the 2022 10.9-inch iPad -- and the same as Lightning.

He's also guessing that the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max will be at least the 20 gigabit per second USB 3.2 and possibly the 40 gigabit per second Thunderbolt 3.

Wednesday's Tweets are not Kuo's first prediction of USB-C on the iPhone 15. In May 2022, Kuo discussed it as a real possibility for the first time.

Apple has been periodically rumored to migrate from Lightning to USB-C for a forthcoming iPhone over the last few years. The EU has mandated it on all smartphones made by any manufacturer by the time the iPhone 16 rolls around.

If correct, a 2023 launch would mark the end of the Lightning connector as Apple's primary charging cable, after 13 years. USB-C was launched shortly after Lightning in 2012, but it wasn't until the 12-inch MacBook in 2015 that Apple used it in a shipping product.

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jbtuckr · November 17, 2022 1:47AM

I hope this isn’t true. Just with iPads, we have to replace the USB-C ports 2-3x more often than on iPads with the lightning port. Lightning is so much more durable, which is especially important in phones

PERockwell · November 17, 2022 2:17AM

I push the BS button on this one. Thunderbolt chips are expensive. Thunderbolt is over-kill. Take a look at the cost of external USB-C drives vs Thunderbolt drives if you want an idea.
If you want to drive up the cost of iPhones excessively, then go right ahead and put Thunderbolt in them.

USB-C as a connector and USB 3.2 Gen 2, USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 or USB 4 are much more appropriate for these devices.

coolfactor · November 17, 2022 2:41AM

jbtuckr said:

I hope this isn’t true. Just with iPads, we have to replace the USB-C ports 2-3x more often than on iPads with the lightning port. Lightning is so much more durable, which is especially important in phones

Sadly, I've had the opposite experience. I was hugely pro-Lightning because it's such an elegant connector, but experienced three iPhones in a row where the cable would just stop connecting properly. I now rarely connect a cable to my iPhones thanks to Qi charging.

When USB-C infiltrated my life, I've had zero problems. It's an excellent connector. Lightning's days are done.

macxpress · November 17, 2022 2:54AM

jbtuckr said:

I hope this isn’t true. Just with iPads, we have to replace the USB-C ports 2-3x more often than on iPads with the lightning port. Lightning is so much more durable, which is especially important in phones

They don't have a choice...they have to go to USB-C per the EU and they're not gonna make a US version with Lightning and a separate version of the iPhone for Europe with a USB-C port. If they have to develop the technology for a USB-C based iPhone they might as well use it across the board.

mikethemartian · November 17, 2022 3:48AM

jbtuckr said:

I hope this isn’t true. Just with iPads, we have to replace the USB-C ports 2-3x more often than on iPads with the lightning port. Lightning is so much more durable, which is especially important in phones

I’ve found Lightning cables to be quite fragile.

hmlongco · November 17, 2022 6:23AM

Umm... keep in mind that the EU law pertains to devices with ports. I suspect that Apple might just use USB-C/Thunderbolt on the Pro models and ditch the sucker entirely on the standard models, going with wireless charging only.

humbug1873 · November 17, 2022 7:33AM

PERockwell said:

I push the BS button on this one. Thunderbolt chips are expensive. Thunderbolt is over-kill. Take a look at the cost of external USB-C drives vs Thunderbolt drives if you want an idea.
If you want to drive up the cost of iPhones excessively, then go right ahead and put Thunderbolt in them.

USB-C as a connector and USB 3.2 Gen 2, USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 or USB 4 are much more appropriate for these devices.

I guess the situation with Thunderbolt is very similar to the Firewire saga. A great idea (Firewire used to be the superior choice to USB while it lasted) in theory, but bogged down due to high licensing cost (making those ports expensive to install). Since USB uses the 'dirty trick' of being backwards ... compatible it eventually pushed Firewire out of the market.
I predict the same for Thunderbolt, made even worse through that whole cabelling mess. It all uses the USB-C plug and in the end it's the cable that 'decides' the protocol being used. Since the cables are literally indistinguishable from the outside, bad experiences are to be expected (all those cheapo cables and you are lucky to get USB2.0 speeds out of them).

22july2013 · November 17, 2022 8:01AM

hmlongco said:

Umm... keep in mind that the EU law pertains to devices with ports. I suspect that Apple might just use USB-C/Thunderbolt on the Pro models and ditch the sucker entirely on the standard models, going with wireless charging only.

That's a very reasonable possibility. Alternatively, Apple could use USB-C/Thunderbolt on the Pro models and the non-pro models could retain plain USB-C. That's also a viable option. Apple sometimes saves the most expensive features (eg, better cameras, microphones, screens) for the most expensive models.

mattinoz · November 17, 2022 9:30AM

PERockwell said:

I push the BS button on this one. Thunderbolt chips are expensive. Thunderbolt is over-kill. Take a look at the cost of external USB-C drives vs Thunderbolt drives if you want an idea.
If you want to drive up the cost of iPhones excessively, then go right ahead and put Thunderbolt in them.

USB-C as a connector and USB 3.2 Gen 2, USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 or USB 4 are much more appropriate for these devices.

Isn't Apple making their own Thunderbolt chip these days?
Givens them more control and more volume to use it instead of a 3rd party USB-c chip.

elliots11 · November 17, 2022 1:33PM

Why limit the standard phones to USB 2 speeds? At least go to USB 3. That seems punitive and unnecessary. If Thunderbolt is more expensive then ok, but don’t handicap the standard phone.

WhiskeyAPPLEcider · November 17, 2022 1:37PM

PERockwell said:

I push the BS button on this one. Thunderbolt chips are expensive. Thunderbolt is over-kill. Take a look at the cost of external USB-C drives vs Thunderbolt drives if you want an idea.
If you want to drive up the cost of iPhones excessively, then go right ahead and put Thunderbolt in them.

USB-C as a connector and USB 3.2 Gen 2, USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 or USB 4 are much more appropriate for these devices.

Kuo is the most accurate analyst with over 70 percent accuracy and if Apple wants to keep up with the “Pro” name of their pro phones they’ll do Thunderbolt especially to differentiate between the other brands since they’re being forced to go to USB-C to show everyone else their port is superior

MacPro · November 17, 2022 3:47PM

The top end iPhones, Pro and Pro Max could be USB-c + TB, and lesser models just USB-c. It would be a boon to those using video and photography to have higher speeds and not needed for the rest, so IMHO this would make sense and the high end models can probably absorb the higher cost more easily.

dewme · November 17, 2022 4:16PM

Should we be shocked that he would make such a "bold" set of predictions? Apple has already telegraphed that they will be moving to USB-C connectors on future products. That's not even prediction-worthy. Add to that a "prediction" that Apple "might" put TB3 behind the USB-C port on higher end phones. They also might not. These aren't even low hanging fruit predictions, these are fruit rotting on the ground predictions.

If you're going to be a professional prognosticator, at least go beyond the realm of possibility and lay down some odds, i.e., assign a probability value other than 50%, to put some skin in the game so we can rate your performance. Even the Apple weather app assigns a probability of precipitation in its forecasting model. If it just said "it might rain tomorrow" we'd have very little confidence in the reliability of the app.

I'm not picking on this particular person at all. I'm just saying that if we're going to treat these predictions as credible we need to be able to rate the performance of those who are making the predictions. Brushing aside the use of possibilities and insisting on probabilities is a good step in right direction. Having predictions assigned probabilities would also allow the predictions to be graded with a weighting factor (or strength) other than simply pass/fail score on the back end. For example, someone assigning a high probability of something happening that doesn't turn out to be true would be a hard fail, which is worse than failing with a lower probability, i.e., a weak fail. Of course someone with a preponderance of weak fails and/or weak wins would be rated as a guesser or sandbagger and not worthy of our attention. I'm thinking of a Moneyball type of analytics for self-proclaimed expert prognosticators and predictors.

Fidonet127 · November 17, 2022 4:21PM

The silliest notion is Apple moving to USB-C means that every device will transmit at full USB-C speeds. I think higher speeds will also depend upon how much storage the phone uses. The pros who do video need higher speeds. I’m surprised they haven’t complained about the slow speeds more. Regular people are fine with the USB-2 or WiFi speeds. I can’t remember the last time I plugged my phone in to the computer.

DangDave · November 17, 2022 4:39PM

Ming-Chi Kuo did not suggest that any iPhone 15 would have Thunderbolt. Only SS (Super Speed), which is much cheaper. (5/7) My latest survey indicates all 2H23 new iPhones will abandon Lightning and change to USB-C, but only two high-end models (15 Pro & 15 Pro Max) will support the wired high-speed transfer, and the two standard ones (15 & 15 15 Plus) still support USB 2.0 same as Lightning. — 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) November 17, 2022

melgross · November 17, 2022 5:11PM

jbtuckr said:

I hope this isn’t true. Just with iPads, we have to replace the USB-C ports 2-3x more often than on iPads with the lightning port. Lightning is so much more durable, which is especially important in phones

PERockwell said:

I push the BS button on this one. Thunderbolt chips are expensive. Thunderbolt is over-kill. Take a look at the cost of external USB-C drives vs Thunderbolt drives if you want an idea.
If you want to drive up the cost of iPhones excessively, then go right ahead and put Thunderbolt in them.

USB-C as a connector and USB 3.2 Gen 2, USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 or USB 4 are much more appropriate for these devices.

Neithe of you are correct. Firstly, Apple has no choice, by the end of 2o14, the lightning port is gone. Period. No argument is therefore required.

as far as the cost of TB chips, well, it’s not relevant. Apple has designed the ports into the M series of SoCs, and there’s no reason why they can’t use them for an A series chip as well, if they want to.

virgilisleading42 · November 17, 2022 5:19PM

This rumor seems highly unlikely. Very few people use a cable to transfer anything from a phone. They really only use lighting or usb-c for charging. It seems like an expanse that is only needed by such a small minority of users. It seems more likely that iPhone 15 goes completely wireless charging.

lkrupp · November 17, 2022 5:24PM

jbtuckr said:

I hope this isn’t true. Just with iPads, we have to replace the USB-C ports 2-3x more often than on iPads with the lightning port. Lightning is so much more durable, which is especially important in phones

Do you have any documentation or proof other than anecdotal to support your claim?

lkrupp · November 17, 2022 5:32PM

virgilisleading42 said:

This rumor seems highly unlikely. Very few people use a cable to transfer anything from a phone. They really only use lighting or usb-c for charging. It seems like an expanse that is only needed by such a small minority of users. It seems more likely that iPhone 15 goes completely wireless charging.

Yes, absolutely, it’s the so-called power users that are ruining it for the majority of us. I read an opinion piece the other day lamenting how the iPad has been ruined by the constant drumbeat to turn it into a touch-screen Mac, even demanding it run macOS. Steve Jobs introduced it as a device for media consumption and casual web browsing, email. Almost immediately the power users started in on it and look at it today, a complicated mess that the casual user finds anathema. Split-screen, multi-user, multi-tasking, all features you don’t need while watching a movie on your flight to grandma’s house. And at the prices you might just as well buy a MacBook Air and be done with it.

urahara · November 17, 2022 5:52PM

Apple did crappy job implementing TB connections so far.

The speed between iPad Pro M1 and MBP with TB is only 130 MB/s.
Physical SSD limitation on iPad Pro is about 500 MB/s (which can be reach with external SSD drive, but not with a direct connection to MBP. Physical limitation of MBP is around 2300 MB/s, which also can be reached with external SSD).

So even if the iPad Pro has a TB connection the speed it provides is max 500 MB/s. And in a usual use case for me - only 130 MB/s.

Not excited about TB on iPhone Pro….

iPhone 15 Pro rumored to get Thunderbolt connectivity

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