"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
No! The fact of the truth is the decoupling started when Huawei is being totally banned by US.
No, it started because Huawei is well known to be very close to the communist party in China and has had dubious security coupling to it. I know at least one person here who panics whenever that’s said, but it’s true nevertheless. Additionally, when China began to occupy islands and atolls in the pacific claimed by other countries and began building naval bases there, that didn’t help. Neither has the expanded rhetoric over Taiwan. Oh, I’m sure I missed a number of other things.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
So, in your world, only marketshare is relevant.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
No! The fact of the truth is the decoupling started when Huawei is being totally banned by US.
No, it started because Huawei is well known to be very close to the communist party in China and has had dubious security coupling to it. I know at least one person here who panics whenever that’s said, but it’s true nevertheless. Additionally, when China began to occupy islands and atolls in the pacific claimed by other countries and began building naval bases there, that didn’t help. Neither has the expanded rhetoric over Taiwan. Oh, I’m sure I missed a number of other things.
Your history is a failure. Philippine and Vietnam were not countries. They were occupied by US and France. And US and France agree that South Chines Sea belongs to China. You cannot use proximity of the islands to decide who owns then. History decides just like Falkland Islands. With regards you should realize that you only have suspicions not facts. Huawei is a Chinese company. Of course it has ties to Chinese government. You cannot separate Chinese government from CCP. Furthermore, Microsoft and Google and all other US companies are close to US government. Your accusation is menaingless.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
Oh, so today it comes out that "neutral" China has been supplying military and dual use equipment and material to the Russian military. Good to know.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
So, in your world, only marketshare is relevant.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
1. I never even mentioned the word marketshare in that post.
2. Be careful where you get your 'news' from and how you interpret it.
3. My 'ignoring' certain aspects says nothing about me. That stuff is irrelevant here.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
So, in your world, only marketshare is relevant.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
1. I never even mentioned the word marketshare in that post.
2. Be careful where you get your 'news' from and how you interpret it.
3. My 'ignoring' certain aspects says nothing about me. That stuff is irrelevant here.
Units sold is interchangeable with marketshare when comparing competitor sales, as you were. More to that point, Huawei was shipping massive numbers of entry level phones to accomplish that. BFD.
Poster supporting Authoritarian China that has no free press, tells another poster to "be careful where you get your "news" from and how to interpret it". That's what Authoritarianism is, BTW. A better response would have been to counter with some news link sourced outside of China.
China has been warned explicitly by its Western trade partners not to support Russia with military hardware. China agreed to that. To violate that agreement risks more trade sanctions from the West, as I linked in posts above, China today is not in a great economic position to FAFO.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
So, in your world, only marketshare is relevant.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
1. I never even mentioned the word marketshare in that post.
2. Be careful where you get your 'news' from and how you interpret it.
3. My 'ignoring' certain aspects says nothing about me. That stuff is irrelevant here.
Units sold is interchangeable with marketshare when comparing competitor sales, as you were. More to that point, Huawei was shipping massive numbers of entry level phones to accomplish that. BFD.
Poster supporting Authoritarian China that has no free press, tells another poster to "be careful where you get your "news" from and how to interpret it". That's what Authoritarianism is, BTW. A better response would have been to counter with some news link sourced outside of China.
China has been warned explicitly by its Western trade partners not to support Russia with military hardware. China agreed to that. To violate that agreement risks more trade sanctions from the West, as I linked in posts above, China today is not in a great economic position to FAFO.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
So, in your world, only marketshare is relevant.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
1. I never even mentioned the word marketshare in that post.
2. Be careful where you get your 'news' from and how you interpret it.
3. My 'ignoring' certain aspects says nothing about me. That stuff is irrelevant here.
Units sold is interchangeable with marketshare when comparing competitor sales, as you were. More to that point, Huawei was shipping massive numbers of entry level phones to accomplish that. BFD.
Poster supporting Authoritarian China that has no free press, tells another poster to "be careful where you get your "news" from and how to interpret it". That's what Authoritarianism is, BTW. A better response would have been to counter with some news link sourced outside of China.
China has been warned explicitly by its Western trade partners not to support Russia with military hardware. China agreed to that. To violate that agreement risks more trade sanctions from the West, as I linked in posts above, China today is not in a great economic position to FAFO.
China's military support of Russia belies China's "neutrality", so now the FO part.
"That stuff" is certainly relevant to some consumers, and some posters as myself, just not relevant to you.
Why double down with nonsense?
Unit sales are simply one part of being competitive. That's why I gave you a very varied list of where Huawei is competitive with Apple.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
My comment on 'news' is common sense. Get it from different sources, fact check and form your own opinion.
This thread is not the place for your political viewpoint.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
Uh, by definition, if your ASP is around $150, that pretty much defines the "bulk" of sales as "low end", and what the fuck does "symbolic' have to do with your argument? Huawei obviously was attempting to lead in unit sales to define itself as the market leader. That "win" might actually lead to increased sales, so no, not symbolic.
Actually, there is always politics in tech, you just choose to ignore that which you don't agree with. You certainly support the EU mandates, and those obviously have a political component, no different than the U.S. investment in semiconductor production has political components. Obviously, the Chinese Government also has a political goal for its tech initiatives and funding.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
So, in your world, only marketshare is relevant.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
1. I never even mentioned the word marketshare in that post.
2. Be careful where you get your 'news' from and how you interpret it.
3. My 'ignoring' certain aspects says nothing about me. That stuff is irrelevant here.
Units sold is interchangeable with marketshare when comparing competitor sales, as you were. More to that point, Huawei was shipping massive numbers of entry level phones to accomplish that. BFD.
Poster supporting Authoritarian China that has no free press, tells another poster to "be careful where you get your "news" from and how to interpret it". That's what Authoritarianism is, BTW. A better response would have been to counter with some news link sourced outside of China.
China has been warned explicitly by its Western trade partners not to support Russia with military hardware. China agreed to that. To violate that agreement risks more trade sanctions from the West, as I linked in posts above, China today is not in a great economic position to FAFO.
China's military support of Russia belies China's "neutrality", so now the FO part.
"That stuff" is certainly relevant to some consumers, and some posters as myself, just not relevant to you.
Why double down with nonsense?
Unit sales are simply one part of being competitive. That's why I gave you a very varied list of where Huawei is competitive with Apple.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
My comment on 'news' is common sense. Get it from different sources, fact check and form your own opinion.
This thread is not the place for your political viewpoint.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
Uh, by definition, if your ASP is around $150, that pretty much defines the "bulk" of sales as "low end", and what the fuck does "symbolic' have to do with your argument? Huawei obviously was attempting to lead in unit sales to define itself as the market leader. That "win" might actually lead to increased sales, so no, not symbolic.
Actually, there is always politics in tech, you just choose to ignore that which you don't agree with. You certainly support the EU mandates, and those obviously have a political component, no different than the U.S. investment in semiconductor production has political components. Obviously, the Chinese Government also has a political goal for its tech initiatives and funding.
As I have stated more than once now. Huawei prices have been on the increase since long before the pandemic. If you look hard enough, you will even find commentary from executives on the move away from the cheap end. That was years ago.
Symbolic means symbolic. Important because it is there and has a value but that value is only symbolic. It carries no real weight in the overall scheme of things and has little or no impact on the overall situation.
I am not saying there is no politics in tech. It is precisely that area of tech politics that I sometimes discuss.
You, on the other hand, take each and every opportunity to blather on about politics that have very little (and often nothing) to do with technology. In fact, and this thread is a perfect example, you literally abandon responding to legitimate technology points and inject politics like poison into everything.
You do it incessantly and it has no place here so I don't respond to it.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
So, in your world, only marketshare is relevant.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
1. I never even mentioned the word marketshare in that post.
2. Be careful where you get your 'news' from and how you interpret it.
3. My 'ignoring' certain aspects says nothing about me. That stuff is irrelevant here.
Units sold is interchangeable with marketshare when comparing competitor sales, as you were. More to that point, Huawei was shipping massive numbers of entry level phones to accomplish that. BFD.
Poster supporting Authoritarian China that has no free press, tells another poster to "be careful where you get your "news" from and how to interpret it". That's what Authoritarianism is, BTW. A better response would have been to counter with some news link sourced outside of China.
China has been warned explicitly by its Western trade partners not to support Russia with military hardware. China agreed to that. To violate that agreement risks more trade sanctions from the West, as I linked in posts above, China today is not in a great economic position to FAFO.
China's military support of Russia belies China's "neutrality", so now the FO part.
"That stuff" is certainly relevant to some consumers, and some posters as myself, just not relevant to you.
Why double down with nonsense?
Unit sales are simply one part of being competitive. That's why I gave you a very varied list of where Huawei is competitive with Apple.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
My comment on 'news' is common sense. Get it from different sources, fact check and form your own opinion.
This thread is not the place for your political viewpoint.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
Uh, by definition, if your ASP is around $150, that pretty much defines the "bulk" of sales as "low end", and what the fuck does "symbolic' have to do with your argument? Huawei obviously was attempting to lead in unit sales to define itself as the market leader. That "win" might actually lead to increased sales, so no, not symbolic.
Actually, there is always politics in tech, you just choose to ignore that which you don't agree with. You certainly support the EU mandates, and those obviously have a political component, no different than the U.S. investment in semiconductor production has political components. Obviously, the Chinese Government also has a political goal for its tech initiatives and funding.
As I have stated more than once now. Huawei prices have been on the increase since long before the pandemic. If you look hard enough, you will even find commentary from executives on the move away from the cheap end. That was years ago.
Symbolic means symbolic. Important because it is there and has a value but that value is only symbolic. It carries no real weight in the overall scheme of things and has little or no impact on the overall situation.
I am not saying there is no politics in tech. It is precisely that area of tech politics that I sometimes discuss.
You, on the other hand, take each and every opportunity to blather on about politics that have very little (and often nothing) to do with technology. In fact, and this thread is a perfect example, you literally abandon responding to legitimate technology points and inject politics like poison into everything.
You do it incessantly and it has no place here so I don't respond to it.
The $150 ASP is from back when Huawei was attempting to dethrone Samsung, 2019 - 2020. After that, Huawei never was able to achieve that goal of dethroning Samsung on a yearly unit sales basis.
In 2019, the company's smartphone sales tanked again, dropping to 193.48 million with a market share of 12.6%. That same year, Huawei surpassed Apple to become the second best-selling smartphone manufacturer.
The latest figures mark a sharp fall for Huawei versus the second quarter of 2020 when it was No. 1 in the world by shipments
So, if Huawei wants to dethrone Apple from its hold on the largest premium share of the Chinese Market, then your bellyaching about it is an awesome start.
What legitimate technology points am I going to get from the Chinese Autocracy, especially while China's economy is in recession, and foreign investment has packed up and left or is leaving?
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
So, in your world, only marketshare is relevant.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
1. I never even mentioned the word marketshare in that post.
2. Be careful where you get your 'news' from and how you interpret it.
3. My 'ignoring' certain aspects says nothing about me. That stuff is irrelevant here.
Units sold is interchangeable with marketshare when comparing competitor sales, as you were. More to that point, Huawei was shipping massive numbers of entry level phones to accomplish that. BFD.
Poster supporting Authoritarian China that has no free press, tells another poster to "be careful where you get your "news" from and how to interpret it". That's what Authoritarianism is, BTW. A better response would have been to counter with some news link sourced outside of China.
China has been warned explicitly by its Western trade partners not to support Russia with military hardware. China agreed to that. To violate that agreement risks more trade sanctions from the West, as I linked in posts above, China today is not in a great economic position to FAFO.
China's military support of Russia belies China's "neutrality", so now the FO part.
"That stuff" is certainly relevant to some consumers, and some posters as myself, just not relevant to you.
Why double down with nonsense?
Unit sales are simply one part of being competitive. That's why I gave you a very varied list of where Huawei is competitive with Apple.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
My comment on 'news' is common sense. Get it from different sources, fact check and form your own opinion.
This thread is not the place for your political viewpoint.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
Uh, by definition, if your ASP is around $150, that pretty much defines the "bulk" of sales as "low end", and what the fuck does "symbolic' have to do with your argument? Huawei obviously was attempting to lead in unit sales to define itself as the market leader. That "win" might actually lead to increased sales, so no, not symbolic.
Actually, there is always politics in tech, you just choose to ignore that which you don't agree with. You certainly support the EU mandates, and those obviously have a political component, no different than the U.S. investment in semiconductor production has political components. Obviously, the Chinese Government also has a political goal for its tech initiatives and funding.
As I have stated more than once now. Huawei prices have been on the increase since long before the pandemic. If you look hard enough, you will even find commentary from executives on the move away from the cheap end. That was years ago.
Symbolic means symbolic. Important because it is there and has a value but that value is only symbolic. It carries no real weight in the overall scheme of things and has little or no impact on the overall situation.
I am not saying there is no politics in tech. It is precisely that area of tech politics that I sometimes discuss.
You, on the other hand, take each and every opportunity to blather on about politics that have very little (and often nothing) to do with technology. In fact, and this thread is a perfect example, you literally abandon responding to legitimate technology points and inject politics like poison into everything.
You do it incessantly and it has no place here so I don't respond to it.
The $150 ASP is from back when Huawei was attempting to dethrone Samsung, 2019 - 2020. After that, Huawei never was able to achieve that goal of dethroning Samsung on a yearly unit sales basis.
In 2019, the company's smartphone sales tanked again, dropping to 193.48 million with a market share of 12.6%. That same year, Huawei surpassed Apple to become the second best-selling smartphone manufacturer.
The latest figures mark a sharp fall for Huawei versus the second quarter of 2020 when it was No. 1 in the world by shipments
So, if Huawei wants to dethrone Apple from its hold on the largest premium share of the Chinese Market, then your bellyaching about it is an awesome start.
What legitimate technology points am I going to get from the Chinese Autocracy, especially while China's economy is in recession, and foreign investment has packed up and left or is leaving?
But where did you get it?
I wasn't asking when.
AFAIK Huawei doesn't refer to ASP in its numbers for smartphones.
Your second paragraph makes no sense. This is Huawei and Apple, not China.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
So, in your world, only marketshare is relevant.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
1. I never even mentioned the word marketshare in that post.
2. Be careful where you get your 'news' from and how you interpret it.
3. My 'ignoring' certain aspects says nothing about me. That stuff is irrelevant here.
Units sold is interchangeable with marketshare when comparing competitor sales, as you were. More to that point, Huawei was shipping massive numbers of entry level phones to accomplish that. BFD.
Poster supporting Authoritarian China that has no free press, tells another poster to "be careful where you get your "news" from and how to interpret it". That's what Authoritarianism is, BTW. A better response would have been to counter with some news link sourced outside of China.
China has been warned explicitly by its Western trade partners not to support Russia with military hardware. China agreed to that. To violate that agreement risks more trade sanctions from the West, as I linked in posts above, China today is not in a great economic position to FAFO.
China's military support of Russia belies China's "neutrality", so now the FO part.
"That stuff" is certainly relevant to some consumers, and some posters as myself, just not relevant to you.
Why double down with nonsense?
Unit sales are simply one part of being competitive. That's why I gave you a very varied list of where Huawei is competitive with Apple.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
My comment on 'news' is common sense. Get it from different sources, fact check and form your own opinion.
This thread is not the place for your political viewpoint.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
Uh, by definition, if your ASP is around $150, that pretty much defines the "bulk" of sales as "low end", and what the fuck does "symbolic' have to do with your argument? Huawei obviously was attempting to lead in unit sales to define itself as the market leader. That "win" might actually lead to increased sales, so no, not symbolic.
Actually, there is always politics in tech, you just choose to ignore that which you don't agree with. You certainly support the EU mandates, and those obviously have a political component, no different than the U.S. investment in semiconductor production has political components. Obviously, the Chinese Government also has a political goal for its tech initiatives and funding.
As I have stated more than once now. Huawei prices have been on the increase since long before the pandemic. If you look hard enough, you will even find commentary from executives on the move away from the cheap end. That was years ago.
Symbolic means symbolic. Important because it is there and has a value but that value is only symbolic. It carries no real weight in the overall scheme of things and has little or no impact on the overall situation.
I am not saying there is no politics in tech. It is precisely that area of tech politics that I sometimes discuss.
You, on the other hand, take each and every opportunity to blather on about politics that have very little (and often nothing) to do with technology. In fact, and this thread is a perfect example, you literally abandon responding to legitimate technology points and inject politics like poison into everything.
You do it incessantly and it has no place here so I don't respond to it.
The $150 ASP is from back when Huawei was attempting to dethrone Samsung, 2019 - 2020. After that, Huawei never was able to achieve that goal of dethroning Samsung on a yearly unit sales basis.
In 2019, the company's smartphone sales tanked again, dropping to 193.48 million with a market share of 12.6%. That same year, Huawei surpassed Apple to become the second best-selling smartphone manufacturer.
The latest figures mark a sharp fall for Huawei versus the second quarter of 2020 when it was No. 1 in the world by shipments
So, if Huawei wants to dethrone Apple from its hold on the largest premium share of the Chinese Market, then your bellyaching about it is an awesome start.
What legitimate technology points am I going to get from the Chinese Autocracy, especially while China's economy is in recession, and foreign investment has packed up and left or is leaving?
But where did you get it?
I wasn't asking when.
AFAIK Huawei doesn't refer to ASP in its numbers for smartphones.
Your second paragraph makes no sense. This is Huawei and Apple, not China.
It's probably more like in the low $200's, but it's an easy calculation for anyone that tracks smartphones. Revenue/units is ASP
This chart is for Android devices;
https://www.statista.com/statistics/951537/worldwide-average-selling-price-android-smartphones/
I remember finding that data back when you first posting, and it was notable that Samsung was under $300, while Apple was in the low $700's, but Huawei was much lower than Samsung at that time.
Still, the point is that the revenue and profits are made in the premium sales, not the low end, and that's what Huawei has been attempting to do.
These days, Apple provides revenue data for iPhones, but analysts figure out sales data of phone models, and its obviously easier if you only have a few models to track.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
So, in your world, only marketshare is relevant.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
1. I never even mentioned the word marketshare in that post.
2. Be careful where you get your 'news' from and how you interpret it.
3. My 'ignoring' certain aspects says nothing about me. That stuff is irrelevant here.
Units sold is interchangeable with marketshare when comparing competitor sales, as you were. More to that point, Huawei was shipping massive numbers of entry level phones to accomplish that. BFD.
Poster supporting Authoritarian China that has no free press, tells another poster to "be careful where you get your "news" from and how to interpret it". That's what Authoritarianism is, BTW. A better response would have been to counter with some news link sourced outside of China.
China has been warned explicitly by its Western trade partners not to support Russia with military hardware. China agreed to that. To violate that agreement risks more trade sanctions from the West, as I linked in posts above, China today is not in a great economic position to FAFO.
China's military support of Russia belies China's "neutrality", so now the FO part.
"That stuff" is certainly relevant to some consumers, and some posters as myself, just not relevant to you.
Why double down with nonsense?
Unit sales are simply one part of being competitive. That's why I gave you a very varied list of where Huawei is competitive with Apple.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
My comment on 'news' is common sense. Get it from different sources, fact check and form your own opinion.
This thread is not the place for your political viewpoint.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
Uh, by definition, if your ASP is around $150, that pretty much defines the "bulk" of sales as "low end", and what the fuck does "symbolic' have to do with your argument? Huawei obviously was attempting to lead in unit sales to define itself as the market leader. That "win" might actually lead to increased sales, so no, not symbolic.
Actually, there is always politics in tech, you just choose to ignore that which you don't agree with. You certainly support the EU mandates, and those obviously have a political component, no different than the U.S. investment in semiconductor production has political components. Obviously, the Chinese Government also has a political goal for its tech initiatives and funding.
As I have stated more than once now. Huawei prices have been on the increase since long before the pandemic. If you look hard enough, you will even find commentary from executives on the move away from the cheap end. That was years ago.
Symbolic means symbolic. Important because it is there and has a value but that value is only symbolic. It carries no real weight in the overall scheme of things and has little or no impact on the overall situation.
I am not saying there is no politics in tech. It is precisely that area of tech politics that I sometimes discuss.
You, on the other hand, take each and every opportunity to blather on about politics that have very little (and often nothing) to do with technology. In fact, and this thread is a perfect example, you literally abandon responding to legitimate technology points and inject politics like poison into everything.
You do it incessantly and it has no place here so I don't respond to it.
The $150 ASP is from back when Huawei was attempting to dethrone Samsung, 2019 - 2020. After that, Huawei never was able to achieve that goal of dethroning Samsung on a yearly unit sales basis.
In 2019, the company's smartphone sales tanked again, dropping to 193.48 million with a market share of 12.6%. That same year, Huawei surpassed Apple to become the second best-selling smartphone manufacturer.
The latest figures mark a sharp fall for Huawei versus the second quarter of 2020 when it was No. 1 in the world by shipments
So, if Huawei wants to dethrone Apple from its hold on the largest premium share of the Chinese Market, then your bellyaching about it is an awesome start.
What legitimate technology points am I going to get from the Chinese Autocracy, especially while China's economy is in recession, and foreign investment has packed up and left or is leaving?
But where did you get it?
I wasn't asking when.
AFAIK Huawei doesn't refer to ASP in its numbers for smartphones.
Your second paragraph makes no sense. This is Huawei and Apple, not China.
It's probably more like in the low $200's, but it's an easy calculation for anyone that tracks smartphones. Revenue/units is ASP
This chart is for Android devices;
https://www.statista.com/statistics/951537/worldwide-average-selling-price-android-smartphones/
I remember finding that data back when you first posting, and it was notable that Samsung was under $300, while Apple was in the low $700's, but Huawei was much lower than Samsung at that time.
Still, the point is that the revenue and profits are made in the premium sales, not the low end, and that's what Huawei has been attempting to do.
These days, Apple provides revenue data for iPhones, but analysts figure out sales data of phone models, and its obviously easier if you only have a few models to track.
Ah! So you really don't know and have nothing to support your claims. Now you've jumped from undet $150 to the low $200s.
That itself is a massive jump.
I'm not surprised you've dug a new hole for yourself.
Basically making things up from vague memories.
Once again you are just plain wrong.
Huawei does provide certain 'revenue' data and no one is saying mid to high end phones don't make margins or that they aren't important.
The point was if having the highest margins/ASP/profits etc was so important.
It is not.
Let me repeat what I said earlier:
"ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'."
Now I am going to back that up:
R&D as a percentage of revenue. R&D in absolute terms. Patent filings.
How has Apple done in comparison to Huawei?
This says it tripled Apple’s R&D outlay for one year recently.
When I gave you that long, but very incomplete, list of areas where Huawei competes with Apple (besting it in every single one) you should have seen that having the highest ASP/profits, means little to nothing here.
It will mean much more to investors but that's a different story!
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
So, in your world, only marketshare is relevant.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
1. I never even mentioned the word marketshare in that post.
2. Be careful where you get your 'news' from and how you interpret it.
3. My 'ignoring' certain aspects says nothing about me. That stuff is irrelevant here.
Units sold is interchangeable with marketshare when comparing competitor sales, as you were. More to that point, Huawei was shipping massive numbers of entry level phones to accomplish that. BFD.
Poster supporting Authoritarian China that has no free press, tells another poster to "be careful where you get your "news" from and how to interpret it". That's what Authoritarianism is, BTW. A better response would have been to counter with some news link sourced outside of China.
China has been warned explicitly by its Western trade partners not to support Russia with military hardware. China agreed to that. To violate that agreement risks more trade sanctions from the West, as I linked in posts above, China today is not in a great economic position to FAFO.
China's military support of Russia belies China's "neutrality", so now the FO part.
"That stuff" is certainly relevant to some consumers, and some posters as myself, just not relevant to you.
Why double down with nonsense?
Unit sales are simply one part of being competitive. That's why I gave you a very varied list of where Huawei is competitive with Apple.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
My comment on 'news' is common sense. Get it from different sources, fact check and form your own opinion.
This thread is not the place for your political viewpoint.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
Uh, by definition, if your ASP is around $150, that pretty much defines the "bulk" of sales as "low end", and what the fuck does "symbolic' have to do with your argument? Huawei obviously was attempting to lead in unit sales to define itself as the market leader. That "win" might actually lead to increased sales, so no, not symbolic.
Actually, there is always politics in tech, you just choose to ignore that which you don't agree with. You certainly support the EU mandates, and those obviously have a political component, no different than the U.S. investment in semiconductor production has political components. Obviously, the Chinese Government also has a political goal for its tech initiatives and funding.
As I have stated more than once now. Huawei prices have been on the increase since long before the pandemic. If you look hard enough, you will even find commentary from executives on the move away from the cheap end. That was years ago.
Symbolic means symbolic. Important because it is there and has a value but that value is only symbolic. It carries no real weight in the overall scheme of things and has little or no impact on the overall situation.
I am not saying there is no politics in tech. It is precisely that area of tech politics that I sometimes discuss.
You, on the other hand, take each and every opportunity to blather on about politics that have very little (and often nothing) to do with technology. In fact, and this thread is a perfect example, you literally abandon responding to legitimate technology points and inject politics like poison into everything.
You do it incessantly and it has no place here so I don't respond to it.
The $150 ASP is from back when Huawei was attempting to dethrone Samsung, 2019 - 2020. After that, Huawei never was able to achieve that goal of dethroning Samsung on a yearly unit sales basis.
In 2019, the company's smartphone sales tanked again, dropping to 193.48 million with a market share of 12.6%. That same year, Huawei surpassed Apple to become the second best-selling smartphone manufacturer.
The latest figures mark a sharp fall for Huawei versus the second quarter of 2020 when it was No. 1 in the world by shipments
So, if Huawei wants to dethrone Apple from its hold on the largest premium share of the Chinese Market, then your bellyaching about it is an awesome start.
What legitimate technology points am I going to get from the Chinese Autocracy, especially while China's economy is in recession, and foreign investment has packed up and left or is leaving?
But where did you get it?
I wasn't asking when.
AFAIK Huawei doesn't refer to ASP in its numbers for smartphones.
Your second paragraph makes no sense. This is Huawei and Apple, not China.
It's probably more like in the low $200's, but it's an easy calculation for anyone that tracks smartphones. Revenue/units is ASP
This chart is for Android devices;
https://www.statista.com/statistics/951537/worldwide-average-selling-price-android-smartphones/
I remember finding that data back when you first posting, and it was notable that Samsung was under $300, while Apple was in the low $700's, but Huawei was much lower than Samsung at that time.
Still, the point is that the revenue and profits are made in the premium sales, not the low end, and that's what Huawei has been attempting to do.
These days, Apple provides revenue data for iPhones, but analysts figure out sales data of phone models, and its obviously easier if you only have a few models to track.
Ah! So you really don't know and have nothing to support your claims. Now you've jumped from undet $150 to the low $200s.
That itself is a massive jump.
I'm not surprised you've dug a new hole for yourself.
Basically making things up from vague memories.
Once again you are just plain wrong.
Huawei does provide certain 'revenue' data and no one is saying mid to high end phones don't make margins or that they aren't important.
The point was if having the highest margins/ASP/profits etc was so important.
It is not.
Let me repeat what I said earlier:
"ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'."
Now I am going to back that up:
R&D as a percentage of revenue. R&D in absolute terms. Patent filings.
How has Apple done in comparison to Huawei?
This says it tripled Apple’s R&D outlay for one year recently.
When I gave you that long, but very incomplete, list of areas where Huawei competes with Apple (besting it in every single one) you should have seen that having the highest ASP/profits, means little to nothing here.
It will mean much more to investors but that's a different story!
Uhm, Apple still exceeded Huawei R&D expenditure, if Huawei's R&D was indeed $22B, and those patent fees might add up to something on the order of just under $1B, which really cuts into Apple's profits margins/ /s
I think that you need to have a course in economics if you can't understand the basics of capitalism, but then again, if your business model is an autocracy, I guess it doesn't really matter.
I'd surmise that Apple pushed a small amount of FY2022 $170B of gross profits to R&D;
Apple research and development expenses for the twelve months ending June 30, 2023 were $29.369B, a 16.26% increase year-over-year. Apple annual research and development expenses for 2022 were $26.251B, a 19.79% increase from 2021.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
"There's been a decoupling between what's happening in the economy and consumers buying phones,"
The decoupling is caused by US government trying to decouple China from the world.
No, not really. If anything, it’s China that’s been doing that by their actions. At any rate, it’s the worldwide high inflation rate that’s been at the center of all of this. But anaerobic e sales, as you can see from the chart gave been dropping for years. A major reason given is that the worldwide market is saturated. People are go,ding on to phones, tablets, comluters, etc. for a longer time.
Well, Huawei hit number one in unit shipments just when sanctions were imposed and that had a definite impact.
It released HarmonyOS for lots of old Huawei China models, effectively breathing new life into them and delaying upgrading of new phones. It also went one step further and introduced a system where users could have their storage capacity upgraded for a nominal price (an excellent move to extend useful life of a device). Battery replacement was also dirt cheap for Huawei users.
256GB to 512GB for a flagship device was less than $140.
The cost of living crisis, inflation and other headwinds aren't helping in the wider market either.
When you add it all up it makes sense that global unit sales are down.
Almost a perfect storm.
And yet, Apple is notably doing better than its Android OS competitors...
It's true that Huawei was selling a shit ton of low cost phones, almost giving them away (dumping!) to gain marketshare, and frankly, I'm in complete agreement with sanctions on Huawei, given that it is in fact, closely linked with the Chinese Government.
With Huawei having to deal with extraterritorial sanctions and completely re-jig its supply lines to eliminate US technology and release a new mobile OS and, without ever having access to the US handset market, you should be able to see how that situation favored Apple greatly.
Huawei sold a 'shit ton' of everything and was not 'almost giving phones away'.
Not even under sanctions.
Prices across the board were increasing years prior to the pandemic and Huawei's presence in the utlra low market was symbolic at best. All of its major gains were mid-range and higher. Way up into the premium, ultra premium and beyond (PD models).
First half year 2023 unit sales are 40% up YoY. For the second quarter of this year, Huawei re-entered the top 5 vendor list in China.
As you should be able to see by now, Huawei has been very busy but in spite of everything that has been happening over the last three years, earlier this year they said 'sanctions were the new normal' and that they were returning to their usual two flagship per year release cycle. Three or four, if you include folding and flip phones.
For every single piece of hardware or software that sanctions have forced it to create, US interests have been impacted.
This is old news now but recent patents on lithography breakthroughs and packaging advances would seem to point in the direction they want to go in:
You seem to approve of everything that EU does, how about the EU instituting a mandatory ban on Huawei in 5G, due to the fact that countries were dragging their feet on removing Huawei voluntarily?
Yeah! An aside.
Literally nothing to do with any of this.
Again. You are needlessly leaning into the full on political angle.
Most EU countries haven't banned Huawei voluntarily because they see no need to.
Try to stick with the technology/market angle.
Yeah, I get it that the situation is majorly impacted by the political aspect but the centre of this article is not about that.
You might want to consider that the U.S. has restricted Tech Investment into China, with more restriction on the way, so "do it yourself" supported by massive government subsidies, is certainly what is happening, but I doubt that China is going to catch up without access to US technology. But sure, Huawei has figured out a way to use the limited 7nm tech in China to build its own 5G modems, which doesn't translate to catching up with the West in semicoductor manufacturing.
You thought that was a valid technology statement?
He made a huge mistake that shows he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Really, and what would that "huge mistake" be?
No matter how you yourself look at it, China is three generations behind the West in semiconductors, and even reverse engineering as much Western tech as possible, they aren't going to be able to catch up very fast, if ever.
For me, it's even obvious that the EU's France and Germany, whose trade is so intertwined with China, are going to have to begin pulling back.
Thanks for confirming you didn't see it either. It was a simple mistake to make but the thing is, in these cases, if you're going to make big claims on YouTube or anywhere with a big potential audience, you really should be dotting your 'I's.
He implied that the US didn't want China to best it in semicoductors.
That's not a claim anyone should be making 'unqualified' because it's very hard to tackle without qualification.
But he did it. And so did you!
Let's rewind a bit.
It was you who said China would take a very long time to advance on process nodes.
When TechInsights picked up on SMIC's manufacturing of 7nm node chipsets the key takeaway was NOT that it was an expensive, low yield effort.
It sent shockwaves through the US and the EU for a different reason and that was clearly spelled out in the report.
The key takeaway was that NO EU or US company had anything to match it.
Let that sink in for a while.
They were already behind!
Your man from YouTube quite literally dropped the ball on that.
The US is NOT the world. The US is majorly, heavily and utterly dependent on non-US technologies from places like Holland and Taiwan.
And even if a tiny percentage of that final machinery does contain a sliver of US based technology, weaponising it is only going to backfire and I have yet to see anyone outside the US administration even say the contrary.
The other point they raised was that China had 'officially' gone from 14nm to 7nm in just TWO YEARS.
Let me be frank. The news really put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And then I was lucky enough to read a separate industry report that pointed out that if China were to refocus all its current capacity onto 7nm, it would outstrip TSMC and Samsung - combined!
But the technology aspect doesn't end there. Have you heard of Industry 4.0?
The so called fourth industrial revolution?
Completely reliant on cutting edge ICT roll outs in industry - ALL INDUSTRY.
Remind me where the US is with 5G. 5.5G. 6G.
You see? They are nowhere once again and Industry 4.0 is the future.
Your man thinks the US must stop China getting ahead but in key areas, that ship has sailed.
More technology insight for you.
How much of the world's chipset output is on the cutting edge nodes?
Come on, give it a stab?
I think you know where I'm going here.
The world ticks by on older, more mature and above all, cheaper nodes.
That has always been the case.
Right now, you could even argue that demand for the cutting edge nodes is slowing too. We already had a new iPhone with 'last year's chipset' and we already know prices of the latest nodes are on the up.
Let me throw something at the wall and later this year or next, we'll see if it sticks.
I've been saying for a couple of years now that Huawei's first move to avoid sanctions regarding chip fabrication would probably involve Chip stacking.
There is a LOT of evidence out there pointing to that. But let's be clear. The goal is not to best a 3nm chip. The goal is to get a product that is free of sanctions onto the market - and then to make it better (quickly!).
Believe me. The semi conductor association of America wrote to the White House on numerous occasions pleading for careful sanctions for a reason. For a very good reason.
It depends on China in a large part, for the revenues it needs for future R&D.
The White House even invited them over recently.
Cutting China off is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
So your man on YouTube failed to spot what was going on with technology.
Qualcomm said at its recent earnings call that it would see no new 'material revenue' from Huawei going forward.
That's not great for US business. We already know it will lose Apple at some point too.
China has literally been forced to go it alone and is now having to accelerate those plans and it's doing it from home.
South Korea recently went on record (at a very high level) saying that it basically should not be asked to take sides as it would be damaging for everyone.
Anyway. One last question for your internet man.
How far away does he think the 'post silicon era' is and who will lead in that?
Answers on a postcard to the White House please!
"get a better product free of sanctions into the market, and the make it better (quickly)
Good luck with that, and a "post silicon era" that favors China, good luck with that as well.
China has peaked economically, and that isn't hyperbole, that's fact, and with their rapidly aging population and huge youth unemployment, good luck on transitioning to a consumer driven economy.
First point is a given. China is already ahead of the US in that aspect. No luck involved. Hence the panic. Huawei will just plough development resources into it. That has been happening since sanctions started.
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
You've been attempting to spin this as a win for Huawei; it isn't. It's a stopgap measure, and consumers will be advised of that. It might sell in China, but it won't be competitive elsewhere. But it's delusional to think that other Chinese brands will adopt this technology, as if there is even enough "faux 7nm" capacity available to satisfy Huawei's needs.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales. It did it without access to one of the largest smartphone markets on the planet. Yet, It overtook the market on practically every level.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech. Charging tech. Camera tech Wifi Bluetooth 5G Earbuds TVs Smartscreens Book readers Cars All aspects of AI: Training and inference Frameworks Hardware accelerator cards AI models PV ICT Cloud Fintech Aviation Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
Huawei overtook Apple in unit sales. It overtook Samsung in unit sales.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo lands in Beijing for an expected visit next week she’s likely to hear an unprecedented request from her hosts: Help us with our struggling economy.
Raimondo’s long-anticipated visit coincides with a worsening downturn in China’s financial health marked by plunging exports and foreign investment as well as soaring youth unemployment. The latest data suggest that the once-unstoppable economic juggernaut has finally hit a serious pothole.
That’s a diagnosis that both President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping agree on. Xi warned his senior leadership last month in notably frank terms that “China‘s economy is facing new difficulties and challenges.” Biden piled on earlier this month, hinting that China’s economic woes could pose domestic stability risks for Xi.
“China is in trouble,” Biden told donors at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah. “They have got some problems — that’s not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”
ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
So, in your world, only marketshare is relevant.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
1. I never even mentioned the word marketshare in that post.
2. Be careful where you get your 'news' from and how you interpret it.
3. My 'ignoring' certain aspects says nothing about me. That stuff is irrelevant here.
Units sold is interchangeable with marketshare when comparing competitor sales, as you were. More to that point, Huawei was shipping massive numbers of entry level phones to accomplish that. BFD.
Poster supporting Authoritarian China that has no free press, tells another poster to "be careful where you get your "news" from and how to interpret it". That's what Authoritarianism is, BTW. A better response would have been to counter with some news link sourced outside of China.
China has been warned explicitly by its Western trade partners not to support Russia with military hardware. China agreed to that. To violate that agreement risks more trade sanctions from the West, as I linked in posts above, China today is not in a great economic position to FAFO.
China's military support of Russia belies China's "neutrality", so now the FO part.
"That stuff" is certainly relevant to some consumers, and some posters as myself, just not relevant to you.
Why double down with nonsense?
Unit sales are simply one part of being competitive. That's why I gave you a very varied list of where Huawei is competitive with Apple.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
My comment on 'news' is common sense. Get it from different sources, fact check and form your own opinion.
This thread is not the place for your political viewpoint.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
Uh, by definition, if your ASP is around $150, that pretty much defines the "bulk" of sales as "low end", and what the fuck does "symbolic' have to do with your argument? Huawei obviously was attempting to lead in unit sales to define itself as the market leader. That "win" might actually lead to increased sales, so no, not symbolic.
Actually, there is always politics in tech, you just choose to ignore that which you don't agree with. You certainly support the EU mandates, and those obviously have a political component, no different than the U.S. investment in semiconductor production has political components. Obviously, the Chinese Government also has a political goal for its tech initiatives and funding.
As I have stated more than once now. Huawei prices have been on the increase since long before the pandemic. If you look hard enough, you will even find commentary from executives on the move away from the cheap end. That was years ago.
Symbolic means symbolic. Important because it is there and has a value but that value is only symbolic. It carries no real weight in the overall scheme of things and has little or no impact on the overall situation.
I am not saying there is no politics in tech. It is precisely that area of tech politics that I sometimes discuss.
You, on the other hand, take each and every opportunity to blather on about politics that have very little (and often nothing) to do with technology. In fact, and this thread is a perfect example, you literally abandon responding to legitimate technology points and inject politics like poison into everything.
You do it incessantly and it has no place here so I don't respond to it.
The $150 ASP is from back when Huawei was attempting to dethrone Samsung, 2019 - 2020. After that, Huawei never was able to achieve that goal of dethroning Samsung on a yearly unit sales basis.
In 2019, the company's smartphone sales tanked again, dropping to 193.48 million with a market share of 12.6%. That same year, Huawei surpassed Apple to become the second best-selling smartphone manufacturer.
The latest figures mark a sharp fall for Huawei versus the second quarter of 2020 when it was No. 1 in the world by shipments
So, if Huawei wants to dethrone Apple from its hold on the largest premium share of the Chinese Market, then your bellyaching about it is an awesome start.
What legitimate technology points am I going to get from the Chinese Autocracy, especially while China's economy is in recession, and foreign investment has packed up and left or is leaving?
But where did you get it?
I wasn't asking when.
AFAIK Huawei doesn't refer to ASP in its numbers for smartphones.
Your second paragraph makes no sense. This is Huawei and Apple, not China.
It's probably more like in the low $200's, but it's an easy calculation for anyone that tracks smartphones. Revenue/units is ASP
This chart is for Android devices;
https://www.statista.com/statistics/951537/worldwide-average-selling-price-android-smartphones/
I remember finding that data back when you first posting, and it was notable that Samsung was under $300, while Apple was in the low $700's, but Huawei was much lower than Samsung at that time.
Still, the point is that the revenue and profits are made in the premium sales, not the low end, and that's what Huawei has been attempting to do.
These days, Apple provides revenue data for iPhones, but analysts figure out sales data of phone models, and its obviously easier if you only have a few models to track.
Ah! So you really don't know and have nothing to support your claims. Now you've jumped from undet $150 to the low $200s.
That itself is a massive jump.
I'm not surprised you've dug a new hole for yourself.
Basically making things up from vague memories.
Once again you are just plain wrong.
Huawei does provide certain 'revenue' data and no one is saying mid to high end phones don't make margins or that they aren't important.
The point was if having the highest margins/ASP/profits etc was so important.
It is not.
Let me repeat what I said earlier:
"ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'."
Now I am going to back that up:
R&D as a percentage of revenue. R&D in absolute terms. Patent filings.
How has Apple done in comparison to Huawei?
This says it tripled Apple’s R&D outlay for one year recently.
When I gave you that long, but very incomplete, list of areas where Huawei competes with Apple (besting it in every single one) you should have seen that having the highest ASP/profits, means little to nothing here.
It will mean much more to investors but that's a different story!
Uhm, Apple still exceeded Huawei R&D expenditure, if Huawei's R&D was indeed $22B, and those patent fees might add up to something on the order of just under $1B, which really cuts into Apple's profits margins/ /s
I think that you need to have a course in economics if you can't understand the basics of capitalism, but then again, if your business model is an autocracy, I guess it doesn't really matter.
I'd surmise that Apple pushed a small amount of FY2022 $170B of gross profits to R&D;
Apple research and development expenses for the twelve months ending June 30, 2023 were $29.369B, a 16.26% increase year-over-year. Apple annual research and development expenses for 2022 were $26.251B, a 19.79% increase from 2021.
Ah! Yes, of course, the latest Apple figures have seen a massive increase in R&D. Just as well, right?
But why not compare things over the last 10 years? What's the trend?
Would it be fair to call Apple a bit behind on investment over the last decade?
TBH, I haven't checked but I doubt I'm far off.
It is rumored to be working on a car (in which capacity is unknown) so that will require a fair bit of the pie no doubt.
It's having to build its own 5G modem which is definitely costly on R&D.
And of course the Vision Pro.
The point is, and you need this driven home to you, that competitors and competition are definitely pushing Apple to spend more, again proving my point that having the 'highest' ASP/revenues/profit is NOT the be all and end all of all this. Far from it.
Wading in and saying 'but Apple makes the most profits, revenues and has the highest ASP just doesn't mean anything here!
Go tell that to investors and make them smile for a while. Here, it means nothing.
And the evidence is literally staring at you from all directions.
So here's just ONE angle:
I mentioned 'NearLink' to you the other day.
R&D, partnering, vision. Finding solutions to modern day problems.
This (albeit clunky and uncredited) piece is a classic example of this:
I suspect the author is a Huawei employee or developer who was at HDC earlier this month. The clunkiness is due to the translation from Chinese more than anything else.
The point here is the end goal.
NearLink is the branding name for what was originally called Starlight or Starflash. I believe Huawei first used it in a car (2020/21). Back then a 100+ companies were on board. That's now over 300.
So while Apple was trying to push HomeKit for example, Huawei had a huge portfolio of partners pushing over 5,000 products for its ecosystem. Years back.
Then came the Whole House Smart Home setup which has just reached version 4 (announced just before HDC) and NearLink is clearly going to play a huge role in that.
So you have the software, the hardware, the chipsets, the industry partners and then the 'little details' that step things up a little bit, like FTTR.
But wait, fitting your house with fibre must surely be expensive?
Not as much as you might expect and there are robots available for guiding internal installations and 'invisible' fibre for surface mounted setups.
This video is for professional installers:
Can you see all these pieces and how it is supposed to come together? And these installations today are already future proofed for 5.5G. They will require minimal upgrading. That was all presented at MWC2023 in Barcelona.
Has Apple been anywhere near this kind of thinking?
Of course, it's completely impossible to see how it might play out in real world terms (politics, politics!) but the baby steps have already been taken.
I have no idea. I just see the plan and the plan needed all that R&D behind it. Over the last decade.
NearLink is obviously designed to deal with the 'last hop' issues of massive numbers of devices, RF transmission, latency, interference, handshaking, security, error connection and bandwidth.
It was all demoed at HDC.
You see, when you talk about Huawei not being 'competitive' with Apple (and everyone else) you really have no idea about reality. You probably have your eyes closed to it.
BTW, you obviously won't 'need' Huawei's Whole House Smart Solution for all this. That's just the icing on the cake for those who want to go all in on it.
And that 'you' is obviously an impersonal 'you' . Living in a whole smart home run by Huawei would probably keep you from sleeping at night! LOL.
Comments
We will probably see the first small steps in real products before year end.
Huawei filed for 30 chiplet related patents in 2017. By 2022 that number had risen to above 900.
Second point is unknown currently but the takeaway is that once it happens, the lithography choke points will vanish.
We already know for example, that China has a big interest in photonics and guess who knows a thing or two about that?
Another point, that I left out for reasons of length, is that you can be sure that de-Americanisation has been underway since Trump got the snowball moving. That is a given too. The US made it's technology unreliable in the international market space because they wraponised it.
That takes between three and five years to accomplish according to analysts. Guess where we are now on that time frame?
My little pet interest is in the chip stacking area, though. The underlying idea and technology is nothing new.
Some say yields are low and therefore costs are higher. Others point to Huawei patents on chip packaging technologies that supposedly make the process much cheaper.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that they will run with it at first, no matter the cost (they have no option) but if they can produce 'flagship like performance' on older nodes using new technologies it might actually lead to a notable pricing advantage in the market.
What might that do to Apple and Qualcomm if they make the technology available to other Chinese brands?
Meanwhile, Qualcomm is in fact diversifying, so I doubt that a slowing market for SOC's is any surprise.
Huawei was never competitive with Apple, so Huawei's "comeback" is just another dilution of Android OS ASP, in an attempt to increase marketshare.
It was competitive to levels Apple can only dream of.
Battery tech.
Charging tech.
Camera tech
Wifi
Bluetooth
5G
Earbuds
TVs
Smartscreens
Book readers
Cars
All aspects of AI:
Training and inference
Frameworks
Hardware accelerator cards
AI models
PV
ICT
Cloud
Fintech
Aviation
Ports mining
...
And a list so long it would make your nose bleed.
Please don't try to say it wasn't competitive when Apple only resides in a tiny CE bubble.
I don't spin anything. I'm very realistic.
LOL!
Huawei did all that with an ASP of under $150, even less than Samsung, shipping more units, but with essentially the same revenue, while Apple's ASP was at over $700, so not only was Apple generating much more revenue than Huawei, Apple was generating over 80 Percent of the profits, worldwide.
Huawei didn't win anything.
In the meantime, the world has turned against China, both for reasons of China's botched COVID 19 management that destroyed supply chains, and due to Xi Jinping's increasing Authoritarianism, and continuing human rights violations.
China, and Huawei by extension, are in a bind of their own making.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/18/raimondo-china-economic-downturn-00111912
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'.
As for the world turning against China, all I can do is roll my eyes. Utter nonsense. Why do you incessantly inject politics into everything China related? Let it go.
Talk tech. Provide some insight.
Got it.
As for the world turning against China, well, I'll let the news speak for itself, and if you are so turned off by my politics, then ignore me.
Either way, your ignoring China's authoritarianism, and human rights violations, says everything about you that I would ever need to know.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/19/china-helping-arm-russia-helicopters-drones-metals-xi-putin/
Now when the backlash from the West goes ballistic, you will at least know why.
2. Be careful where you get your 'news' from and how you interpret it.
3. My 'ignoring' certain aspects says nothing about me. That stuff is irrelevant here.
Poster supporting Authoritarian China that has no free press, tells another poster to "be careful where you get your "news" from and how to interpret it". That's what Authoritarianism is, BTW. A better response would have been to counter with some news link sourced outside of China.
China has been warned explicitly by its Western trade partners not to support Russia with military hardware. China agreed to that. To violate that agreement risks more trade sanctions from the West, as I linked in posts above, China today is not in a great economic position to FAFO.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/china-helps-russia-evade-sanctions-tech-used-ukraine-war-rcna96693
China's military support of Russia belies China's "neutrality", so now the FO part.
"That stuff" is certainly relevant to some consumers, and some posters as myself, just not relevant to you.
Unit sales are simply one part of being competitive. That's why I gave you a very varied list of where Huawei is competitive with Apple.
As I stated previously, Huawei's low end sales did Not make up the bulk of its sales. They were largely symbolic.
My comment on 'news' is common sense. Get it from different sources, fact check and form your own opinion.
This thread is not the place for your political viewpoint.
Actually, there is always politics in tech, you just choose to ignore that which you don't agree with. You certainly support the EU mandates, and those obviously have a political component, no different than the U.S. investment in semiconductor production has political components. Obviously, the Chinese Government also has a political goal for its tech initiatives and funding.
Symbolic means symbolic. Important because it is there and has a value but that value is only symbolic. It carries no real weight in the overall scheme of things and has little or no impact on the overall situation.
So, where are you getting your $150 ASP from?
"Apple’s main challenger in the premium end of the market is likely to be Huawei, the company that was once the biggest smartphone player in the world before U.S. sanctions cut it off from critical technology that crippled its consumer business.
While Huawei’s overseas business has shrunk considerably, it is still launching phones in China aimed at the high-end part of the market"
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/01/apple-could-benefit-in-china-from-users-spending-more-on-smartphones.html#:~:text=The average selling price of,in a report last week.
I am not saying there is no politics in tech. It is precisely that area of tech politics that I sometimes discuss.
You, on the other hand, take each and every opportunity to blather on about politics that have very little (and often nothing) to do with technology. In fact, and this thread is a perfect example, you literally abandon responding to legitimate technology points and inject politics like poison into everything.
You do it incessantly and it has no place here so I don't respond to it.
So, if Huawei wants to dethrone Apple from its hold on the largest premium share of the Chinese Market, then your bellyaching about it is an awesome start.
What legitimate technology points am I going to get from the Chinese Autocracy, especially while China's economy is in recession, and foreign investment has packed up and left or is leaving?
I wasn't asking when.
AFAIK Huawei doesn't refer to ASP in its numbers for smartphones.
Your second paragraph makes no sense. This is Huawei and Apple, not China.
That itself is a massive jump.
I'm not surprised you've dug a new hole for yourself.
Basically making things up from vague memories.
Once again you are just plain wrong.
Huawei does provide certain 'revenue' data and no one is saying mid to high end phones don't make margins or that they aren't important.
The point was if having the highest margins/ASP/profits etc was so important.
It is not.
Let me repeat what I said earlier:
"ASP is irrelevant if your business is successful. Profit levels are also irrelevant is your business is successful.
The 'how much money' angle means literally nothing.
It's all about 'enough', NOT the 'most'."
Now I am going to back that up:
R&D as a percentage of revenue. R&D in absolute terms. Patent filings.
How has Apple done in comparison to Huawei?
This says it tripled Apple’s R&D outlay for one year recently.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-25/huawei-rivals-apple-meta-with-r-d-spending-to-beat-sanctions?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner
For every single iPhone sold, between 2 and 3 dollars goes to Huawei in patent fees according to latest reports.
https://www.huawei.com/en/news/2023/7/ipr-innovation-horizon
When I gave you that long, but very incomplete, list of areas where Huawei competes with Apple (besting it in every single one) you should have seen that having the highest ASP/profits, means little to nothing here.
It will mean much more to investors but that's a different story!
Uhm, Apple still exceeded Huawei R&D expenditure, if Huawei's R&D was indeed $22B, and those patent fees might add up to something on the order of just under $1B, which really cuts into Apple's profits margins/ /s
I think that you need to have a course in economics if you can't understand the basics of capitalism, but then again, if your business model is an autocracy, I guess it doesn't really matter.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/research-development-expenses#:~:text=Apple%20research%20and%20development%20expenses%20for%20the%20twelve%20months%20ending,a%2019.79%25%20increase%20from%202021.
I'd surmise that Apple pushed a small amount of FY2022 $170B of gross profits to R&D;
But why not compare things over the last 10 years? What's the trend?
Would it be fair to call Apple a bit behind on investment over the last decade?
TBH, I haven't checked but I doubt I'm far off.
It is rumored to be working on a car (in which capacity is unknown) so that will require a fair bit of the pie no doubt.
It's having to build its own 5G modem which is definitely costly on R&D.
And of course the Vision Pro.
The point is, and you need this driven home to you, that competitors and competition are definitely pushing Apple to spend more, again proving my point that having the 'highest' ASP/revenues/profit is NOT the be all and end all of all this. Far from it.
Wading in and saying 'but Apple makes the most profits, revenues and has the highest ASP just doesn't mean anything here!
Go tell that to investors and make them smile for a while. Here, it means nothing.
And the evidence is literally staring at you from all directions.
So here's just ONE angle:
I mentioned 'NearLink' to you the other day.
R&D, partnering, vision. Finding solutions to modern day problems.
This (albeit clunky and uncredited) piece is a classic example of this:
https://min.news/en/tech/c968a379df56d5cb8a6c5c0c31fdffb5.html
I suspect the author is a Huawei employee or developer who was at HDC earlier this month. The clunkiness is due to the translation from Chinese more than anything else.
The point here is the end goal.
NearLink is the branding name for what was originally called Starlight or Starflash. I believe Huawei first used it in a car (2020/21). Back then a 100+ companies were on board. That's now over 300.
So while Apple was trying to push HomeKit for example, Huawei had a huge portfolio of partners pushing over 5,000 products for its ecosystem. Years back.
Then came the Whole House Smart Home setup which has just reached version 4 (announced just before HDC) and NearLink is clearly going to play a huge role in that.
So you have the software, the hardware, the chipsets, the industry partners and then the 'little details' that step things up a little bit, like FTTR.
But wait, fitting your house with fibre must surely be expensive?
Not as much as you might expect and there are robots available for guiding internal installations and 'invisible' fibre for surface mounted setups.
This video is for professional installers:
Can you see all these pieces and how it is supposed to come together? And these installations today are already future proofed for 5.5G. They will require minimal upgrading. That was all presented at MWC2023 in Barcelona.
Has Apple been anywhere near this kind of thinking?
Of course, it's completely impossible to see how it might play out in real world terms (politics, politics!) but the baby steps have already been taken.
I have no idea. I just see the plan and the plan needed all that R&D behind it. Over the last decade.
NearLink is obviously designed to deal with the 'last hop' issues of massive numbers of devices, RF transmission, latency, interference, handshaking, security, error connection and bandwidth.
It was all demoed at HDC.
You see, when you talk about Huawei not being 'competitive' with Apple (and everyone else) you really have no idea about reality. You probably have your eyes closed to it.
BTW, you obviously won't 'need' Huawei's Whole House Smart Solution for all this. That's just the icing on the cake for those who want to go all in on it.
And that 'you' is obviously an impersonal 'you' . Living in a whole smart home run by Huawei would probably keep you from sleeping at night! LOL.