People are already familiar with the headset experience. It isn’t new. Better hardware and nicer software doesn’t alter the basic experience. It’s still a windowed phenomena, just closer to your eyes,
But we are talking killer apps. Does the Vision Pro have one? No. It doesn’t. That’s not a cynical view. It’s fact.
It’s a nicer headset. Ok. That’s fine. That’s good even. But it’s not the next iPod, iPhone, etc. it’s a better spec’d headset with nicer looking software.
The Vision Pro may be the best at what it does. But what it does isn’t anything crazy.
People are familiar with VR but not so much with AR/MR. Only the Meta Quest Pro 3, which just launched in October offers a suitably immersive AR/MR experience that people would use it and the visuals are still low quality like watching a TV. Reviewers said that the view with/without the AVP headset looks the same, no distortion/warping/pixels. That gives an immediate familiarity when the headset is put on that you just see the same environment and dial in the digital content.
It's underselling it to say it's just nicer software. VR headsets have a terrible user experience with pointing at things using a controller with a line coming out of it compared to eye tracking with hand gestures. It's like comparing Minority Report with a powerpoint clicker or Wiimote.
Being able to dial in a virtual environment that is completely stable is going to feel like being in the Matrix or the Holodeck and it won't be like in VR:
Mixed reality means the environment can adapt to your space.
The most popular use cases for the product will evolve. When the iPhone launched its strength was usable mobile internet, maps/GPS, proper messaging, it didn't have many games. Over time, gaming and social media became the most popular use cases.
When Apple Vision Pro launches, its strength will be what's available like existing apps and the movie library.
The more accessible that 3D scanning gets with the newer iPhones, the more immersive content can be produced. OnlyFans has around 200 million users. Creators can make 3D avatars of themselves that can exist in your house, they can control it live or they can have it controlled by AI. The following video is rendered:
This is in VR so the background is blacked out. Apple Vision Pro has accurate enough tracking that a butterfly can land on your hand. Digital humans will be able to sit on the sofa beside you. You can have an AI version of Einstein and talk with an AI that mimics his voice and words.
I think these are killer features for the device: personal cinema, digital humans, minority report controls for all apps with an infinite display canvas. These features aren't as universally appealing as mobile devices because most people can live without them but they are compelling enough features for people to use the product.
"I think these are killer features for the device: personal cinema, digital humans, minority report controls for all apps with an infinite display canvas. These features aren't as universally appealing as mobile devices because most people can live without them but they are compelling enough features for people to use the product."
People are already familiar with the headset experience. It isn’t new. Better hardware and nicer software doesn’t alter the basic experience. It’s still a windowed phenomena, just closer to your eyes,
But we are talking killer apps. Does the Vision Pro have one? No. It doesn’t. That’s not a cynical view. It’s fact.
It’s a nicer headset. Ok. That’s fine. That’s good even. But it’s not the next iPod, iPhone, etc. it’s a better spec’d headset with nicer looking software.
The Vision Pro may be the best at what it does. But what it does isn’t anything crazy.
People are familiar with VR but not so much with AR/MR. Only the Meta Quest Pro 3, which just launched in October offers a suitably immersive AR/MR experience that people would use it and the visuals are still low quality like watching a TV. Reviewers said that the view with/without the AVP headset looks the same, no distortion/warping/pixels. That gives an immediate familiarity when the headset is put on that you just see the same environment and dial in the digital content.
It's underselling it to say it's just nicer software. VR headsets have a terrible user experience with pointing at things using a controller with a line coming out of it compared to eye tracking with hand gestures. It's like comparing Minority Report with a powerpoint clicker or Wiimote.
Being able to dial in a virtual environment that is completely stable is going to feel like being in the Matrix or the Holodeck and it won't be like in VR:
Mixed reality means the environment can adapt to your space.
The most popular use cases for the product will evolve. When the iPhone launched its strength was usable mobile internet, maps/GPS, proper messaging, it didn't have many games. Over time, gaming and social media became the most popular use cases.
When Apple Vision Pro launches, its strength will be what's available like existing apps and the movie library.
The more accessible that 3D scanning gets with the newer iPhones, the more immersive content can be produced. OnlyFans has around 200 million users. Creators can make 3D avatars of themselves that can exist in your house, they can control it live or they can have it controlled by AI. The following video is rendered:
This is in VR so the background is blacked out. Apple Vision Pro has accurate enough tracking that a butterfly can land on your hand. Digital humans will be able to sit on the sofa beside you. You can have an AI version of Einstein and talk with an AI that mimics his voice and words.
I think these are killer features for the device: personal cinema, digital humans, minority report controls for all apps with an infinite display canvas. These features aren't as universally appealing as mobile devices because most people can live without them but they are compelling enough features for people to use the product.
The Meta Quest 3 has been launched since October and literally no one cares outside of a few tech geeks…
People are already familiar with the headset experience. It isn’t new. Better hardware and nicer software doesn’t alter the basic experience. It’s still a windowed phenomena, just closer to your eyes,
But we are talking killer apps. Does the Vision Pro have one? No. It doesn’t. That’s not a cynical view. It’s fact.
It’s a nicer headset. Ok. That’s fine. That’s good even. But it’s not the next iPod, iPhone, etc. it’s a better spec’d headset with nicer looking software.
The Vision Pro may be the best at what it does. But what it does isn’t anything crazy.
People are familiar with VR but not so much with AR/MR. Only the Meta Quest Pro 3, which just launched in October offers a suitably immersive AR/MR experience that people would use it and the visuals are still low quality like watching a TV. Reviewers said that the view with/without the AVP headset looks the same, no distortion/warping/pixels. That gives an immediate familiarity when the headset is put on that you just see the same environment and dial in the digital content.
It's underselling it to say it's just nicer software. VR headsets have a terrible user experience with pointing at things using a controller with a line coming out of it compared to eye tracking with hand gestures. It's like comparing Minority Report with a powerpoint clicker or Wiimote.
Being able to dial in a virtual environment that is completely stable is going to feel like being in the Matrix or the Holodeck and it won't be like in VR:
Mixed reality means the environment can adapt to your space.
The most popular use cases for the product will evolve. When the iPhone launched its strength was usable mobile internet, maps/GPS, proper messaging, it didn't have many games. Over time, gaming and social media became the most popular use cases.
When Apple Vision Pro launches, its strength will be what's available like existing apps and the movie library.
The more accessible that 3D scanning gets with the newer iPhones, the more immersive content can be produced. OnlyFans has around 200 million users. Creators can make 3D avatars of themselves that can exist in your house, they can control it live or they can have it controlled by AI. The following video is rendered:
This is in VR so the background is blacked out. Apple Vision Pro has accurate enough tracking that a butterfly can land on your hand. Digital humans will be able to sit on the sofa beside you. You can have an AI version of Einstein and talk with an AI that mimics his voice and words.
I think these are killer features for the device: personal cinema, digital humans, minority report controls for all apps with an infinite display canvas. These features aren't as universally appealing as mobile devices because most people can live without them but they are compelling enough features for people to use the product.
"I think these are killer features for the device: personal cinema, digital humans, minority report controls for all apps with an infinite display canvas. These features aren't as universally appealing as mobile devices because most people can live without them but they are compelling enough features for people to use the product."
Sounds boring to me.
Agreed. If this came out in 2010, it would be cool. But it’s not really that different from the other headset + software solutions out there. Sure, no controller is a benefit in some cases, but a loss in others, such as gaming. At some point, apple will offer or partner with someone to offer a controller for gaming just like the iPad eventually offered a stylus for drawing, etc. so that is a moot argument. The rest really is just nicer hardware and software. Minority report is pretty old now and that sure looks like an exhausting way to get computing done. I’d much rather barely move the mouse and click a button than wave my arms around all day. But that argument is also moot. Apple isn’t offering thst. It’s a pinch and drag deal.
In the end, it’s a better headset. Nothing more.
While nifty and likely to sell enough to justify its existence over time (will likely be a good sell at launch for the early adoption crowd) just not the next big thing. And won’t be the reliable big seller the iPhone is.
It’s. A. Headset. With a brick dangling from it.
I mean, I’d take one if it was more affordable, because why not? But I’m not excited about it, nor is it going to usher in some paradigm shift.
Maybe the next killer app will be an obvious and simple idea: FRONT ROW SEAT, done in conjunction with the NBA or NFL, whereby you can watch live sports from close-up, intimate viewpoints, not the nosebleed seats far away from the action.
Or maybe, advances in artificial intelligence might spawn a whole a new era of virtual companions: SEXY SUZY, ROVER THE DOG, TONY TEACHES TYPING. Maybe Apple’s Siri will be fleshed out to be a virtual companion. So, as R2D2 is to Luke Skywalker, Siri can be to you. Maybe someone will license Marilyn Monroe’s voice and likeness from her estate and they’ll be the MY MARILYN app. Marilyn sitting on the couch beside you! Whatever. Virtual companions is fertile ground.
I can't cook for Virtual Marilyn and have her charmingly but seriously tell me I didn’t get the salt right. Virtual Marilyn won’t hug my nieces and nephews and follow up in their lives by placing meaningful calls and writing meaningful letters of encouragement. When I'm shoveling snow, Virtual Marilyn won't come out and help me and then perceptively go inside a few minutes before completion and heat up the chili I made the previous day. Virtual Marilyn certainly won't procreate with me. To channel Viktor Frankl (“In some way, suffering ceases to be suffering at the moment it finds meaning, such as the meaning of a sacrifice”), I won’t be doing much suffering with and sacrificing for Virtual Marilyn, neither she with me, and hence she brings no enduring meaning. She may make money for someone. She may bring pleasure to others. She won’t bring happiness to me.
'Killer App' People still think this is 1990 and the arrival of computer for the home. That was fine then but now, sorry there won't be a killer app. The iPhone itself was a killer app. The AirPods were the killer app and web browsers & the internet changed the way we use computers. All Vision Pros do is take excisiting vertical market goggles and make them pretty. Same apps as on your Mac, iPhone and iPad just presented in a 3D format. All the tech industry does today is try to get people to buy newer hardware, because there is a lot of money to be made in selling hardware. The VP use the same apps as we have been using for years. Was the iPad a radical idea, nope just a big screen iPhone without the phone. Vision Pro is just an another computer without an external display. As for the vertical market yes there will be interesting Apps but for the rest of us not so much. It will be niche market that when the price comes down Apple will dominate.
“Same apps as on your Mac….” May it be so! A 4K+ “laptop” with Vision Pro mobility is compelling for me.
"I think these are killer features for the device: personal cinema, digital humans, minority report controls for all apps with an infinite display canvas. These features aren't as universally appealing as mobile devices because most people can live without them but they are compelling enough features for people to use the product."
Agreed. If this came out in 2010, it would be cool. But it’s not really that different from the other headset + software solutions out there.
While nifty and likely to sell enough to justify its existence over time (will likely be a good sell at launch for the early adoption crowd) just not the next big thing. And won’t be the reliable big seller the iPhone is.
The following isn't something other headsets have been doing. In the 2nd image, the person on the sofa at the bottom is about 1/10th the size of the movie:
Other hardware doesn't have the display quality nor image stability to do this well.
Meta Quest 3 is getting there but quality and tracking isn't as good and the UI is cumbersome to setup. Just starting a movie playing would be annoying every time:
Meta has sold over 20 million headsets so far (~$300-500).
It's not iPhone numbers and never will be but the Apple Watch doesn't sell that many either. A 10 million unit target with a $1500 price still results in a $15b+/year business.
When people have the choice to watch a movie on a 50" TV or a skyscraper-sized 3D OLED display, the latter will be a better viewing experience.
For virtual people, artists would be able to project themselves. With virtual events, although people could sit in a virtual crowd, they can also send the singer directly in 3D so the view would be like having the performer standing in front of them:
This takes away the need to have edges on a display and content sits in space. That's why it's called spatial computing and it is a new paradigm. This is the new way a lot of people (not all) will interact with content. The hardware will need to improve, but the same was true of the iPod and iPhone. People hardly used the original iPhones because there was nothing to do on them, now people use them 7+ hours per day.
Apple said they've been working on Apple Vision Pro for 8 years. They must have invested a few billion into it but it's unlikely they have 17k employees assigned to it so ongoing costs will be lower.
In a few iterations, it should be possible to get the form factor close to sunglasses given that companies have already made fairly compact models:
In 2026, $1999 2nm M5 Vision Pro will be able to reach 3m units per year. Just as Tim Cook gets ready for retirement in 2030, $1499 sub-1nm M8 Vision Pro will be like glasses and shipping 10m units per year.
A neural interface will be better eventually but easily more than a decade away and probably high risk so glasses will be as close as we get with spatial computing for now.
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Sounds boring to me.
Other hardware doesn't have the display quality nor image stability to do this well.
Meta Quest 3 is getting there but quality and tracking isn't as good and the UI is cumbersome to setup. Just starting a movie playing would be annoying every time:
Meta has sold over 20 million headsets so far (~$300-500).
https://www.zdnet.com/article/would-you-believe-a-vr-headset-outsold-airpods-during-black-friday-it-happened/
It's not iPhone numbers and never will be but the Apple Watch doesn't sell that many either. A 10 million unit target with a $1500 price still results in a $15b+/year business.
When people have the choice to watch a movie on a 50" TV or a skyscraper-sized 3D OLED display, the latter will be a better viewing experience.
For virtual people, artists would be able to project themselves. With virtual events, although people could sit in a virtual crowd, they can also send the singer directly in 3D so the view would be like having the performer standing in front of them:
This takes away the need to have edges on a display and content sits in space. That's why it's called spatial computing and it is a new paradigm. This is the new way a lot of people (not all) will interact with content. The hardware will need to improve, but the same was true of the iPod and iPhone. People hardly used the original iPhones because there was nothing to do on them, now people use them 7+ hours per day.
https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/28/23619730/meta-vr-oculus-ar-glasses-smartwatch-plans
"Meta has sold nearly 20 million Quest headsets to date, Mark Rabkin, the company’s vice president for VR, told employees"
This is over a 2-3 year period and hardware prices are ~$300-500. It was reported to be nearly 15 million total the year before:
https://www.vgchartz.com/article/454210/meta-quest-2-has-sold-148-million-units-most-successful-vr-headset/
Roughly 5-10 million units per year. In their annual report, they report quarterly non-ad revenue on page 55, which includes hardware sales:
https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/annual_reports/2023/2021-Annual-Report.pdf
It reached $1b in Q4 2021 = 2m headsets @$500.
They are still losing billions at this though. The latest quarter shows Reality Labs lost $3.7b and $11b over 9 months:
https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_earnings/2023/q3/earnings-result/Meta-09-30-2022-Exhibit-99-1-FINAL.pdf
Losing nearly $4b/quarter isn't a healthy business model. 17,000 employees working on VR:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality_Labs
Apple said they've been working on Apple Vision Pro for 8 years. They must have invested a few billion into it but it's unlikely they have 17k employees assigned to it so ongoing costs will be lower.
In a few iterations, it should be possible to get the form factor close to sunglasses given that companies have already made fairly compact models:
In 2026, $1999 2nm M5 Vision Pro will be able to reach 3m units per year.
Just as Tim Cook gets ready for retirement in 2030, $1499 sub-1nm M8 Vision Pro will be like glasses and shipping 10m units per year.
A neural interface will be better eventually but easily more than a decade away and probably high risk so glasses will be as close as we get with spatial computing for now.