What problem does the foldable iPhone solve again?
Doubling the screen size while not losing portability.
Multi-tasking with side-by-side apps.
More immersive gaming.
Options to use the main camera for selfies.
Option to use main camera view for subjects to see themselves.
And of course the option of the best of both worlds in screen options (folded or unfolded).
Apple will definitely use all of these points in marketing if they release a folding phone.
These suggestions notwithstanding, there really isn't a compelling use case for a folding iPhone. "Ooo look! It folds!" is good for about twenty minutes of very expensive amusement, but Apple has never been a bells and whistles sort of company. If a folding screen comes from Apple, it's most likely to be an iPad, where greater portability for a larger device could be useful, and a second screen on the outside of the device isn't needed as would be the likely case for a folding phone.
I think it's safe to say that we are now beyond the novelty effect as the market has spoken. People want larger devices in a smaller form factor.
Almost five years into the folding era demand is still growing with the main thing holding folding phones back being price.
A folding tablet will inevitably arrive along with probably triple folding devices.
Scrollable devices will achieve the same goals.
The market has spoken? Other than your personal advocacy here, I’ve seen no evidence for that.
What problem does the foldable iPhone solve again?
Doubling the screen size while not losing portability.
Multi-tasking with side-by-side apps.
More immersive gaming.
Options to use the main camera for selfies.
Option to use main camera view for subjects to see themselves.
And of course the option of the best of both worlds in screen options (folded or unfolded).
Apple will definitely use all of these points in marketing if they release a folding phone.
These suggestions notwithstanding, there really isn't a compelling use case for a folding iPhone. "Ooo look! It folds!" is good for about twenty minutes of very expensive amusement, but Apple has never been a bells and whistles sort of company. If a folding screen comes from Apple, it's most likely to be an iPad, where greater portability for a larger device could be useful, and a second screen on the outside of the device isn't needed as would be the likely case for a folding phone.
I think it's safe to say that we are now beyond the novelty effect as the market has spoken. People want larger devices in a smaller form factor.
Almost five years into the folding era demand is still growing with the main thing holding folding phones back being price.
A folding tablet will inevitably arrive along with probably triple folding devices.
Scrollable devices will achieve the same goals.
The market has spoken? Other than your personal advocacy here, I’ve seen no evidence for that.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
Don't take my word for it.
Folding phones are the 3D television of mobile devices. The "future" "must have" that is neither. I have to laugh about "still plenty of demand." STILL? There has never been "plenty" of demand for these niche and expensive phones that have miniscule market share. Even riding the subway and walking through midtown NYC each day, I have yet to see one in the wild. Meanwhile, iPhones are beyond ubiquitous. But the world of non-Apple tech has long been filled with shiny object tricks that offer "solutions" to problems that don't exist. Their other trick is loss-leader pricing in phones, which is the reason why--despite dominating Apple by far in overall sales--ALL of the other phone makers combined only earn 15% of global smartphone profits. Apple takes the other 85%.
What problem does the foldable iPhone solve again?
Doubling the screen size while not losing portability.
Multi-tasking with side-by-side apps.
More immersive gaming.
Options to use the main camera for selfies.
Option to use main camera view for subjects to see themselves.
And of course the option of the best of both worlds in screen options (folded or unfolded).
Apple will definitely use all of these points in marketing if they release a folding phone.
These suggestions notwithstanding, there really isn't a compelling use case for a folding iPhone. "Ooo look! It folds!" is good for about twenty minutes of very expensive amusement, but Apple has never been a bells and whistles sort of company. If a folding screen comes from Apple, it's most likely to be an iPad, where greater portability for a larger device could be useful, and a second screen on the outside of the device isn't needed as would be the likely case for a folding phone.
I think it's safe to say that we are now beyond the novelty effect as the market has spoken. People want larger devices in a smaller form factor.
Almost five years into the folding era demand is still growing with the main thing holding folding phones back being price.
A folding tablet will inevitably arrive along with probably triple folding devices.
Scrollable devices will achieve the same goals.
The market has spoken? Other than your personal advocacy here, I’ve seen no evidence for that.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
Don't take my word for it.
I'm sure you're a swell person, but don't worry, I'm not taking your word for it. You say "the numbers speak for themselves," but as far as I can see you're not sharing any of those numbers, so they're not speaking at all. If you want anyone to take your claims seriously, you'll have to cite the numbers you say are there, and also the sources for those numbers. Please note that "plenty" is a subjective term, and that year-over-year statistics are garbage, because a) two data points don't actually represent a trend, particularly when b) those two numbers show "big change" between two small numbers. If you are looking at actual numbers that you're not sharing here, your wording is interestingly descriptive: "almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased." With no other information, whatever your definition of "plenty" is, you're describing five data points, with only two , perhaps the the fourth and fifth, cherry-picked to show an increase. What do the other points show? Volatility? A flat line? A decrease? You'll have to show your work on this one.
What problem does the foldable iPhone solve again?
Doubling the screen size while not losing portability.
Multi-tasking with side-by-side apps.
More immersive gaming.
Options to use the main camera for selfies.
Option to use main camera view for subjects to see themselves.
And of course the option of the best of both worlds in screen options (folded or unfolded).
Apple will definitely use all of these points in marketing if they release a folding phone.
These suggestions notwithstanding, there really isn't a compelling use case for a folding iPhone. "Ooo look! It folds!" is good for about twenty minutes of very expensive amusement, but Apple has never been a bells and whistles sort of company. If a folding screen comes from Apple, it's most likely to be an iPad, where greater portability for a larger device could be useful, and a second screen on the outside of the device isn't needed as would be the likely case for a folding phone.
I think it's safe to say that we are now beyond the novelty effect as the market has spoken. People want larger devices in a smaller form factor.
Almost five years into the folding era demand is still growing with the main thing holding folding phones back being price.
A folding tablet will inevitably arrive along with probably triple folding devices.
Scrollable devices will achieve the same goals.
The market has spoken? Other than your personal advocacy here, I’ve seen no evidence for that.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
Don't take my word for it.
I'm sure you're a swell person, but don't worry, I'm not taking your word for it. You say "the numbers speak for themselves," but as far as I can see you're not sharing any of those numbers, so they're not speaking at all. If you want anyone to take your claims seriously, you'll have to cite the numbers you say are there, and also the sources for those numbers. Please note that "plenty" is a subjective term, and that year-over-year statistics are garbage, because a) two data points don't actually represent a trend, particularly when b) those two numbers show "big change" between two small numbers. If you are looking at actual numbers that you're not sharing here, your wording is interestingly descriptive: "almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased." With no other information, whatever your definition of "plenty" is, you're describing five data points, with only two , perhaps the the fourth and fifth, cherry-picked to show an increase. What do the other points show? Volatility? A flat line? A decrease? You'll have to show your work on this one.
I posted a link to Honor sales. I didn't post market based links because I have yet to see a single report that has claimed growth has stalled. Quite the opposite. Everything has claimed strong YoY growth. That is is why I say there is plenty of demand in that segment. It's been like that from day 1.
4. The M3 Ultra Studio Mac (with 256 gigs of UMA memory).
5. AI software support for all of their big UMA memory computers, whatever it takes to support developers, software engineers, programmers in their endeavors in that field, possible servers? at least making it so that anyone who wants to pursue that area can work using multiple Mac studio Ultras with the big UMA memory together, Apple can’t be a crow sitting on the fence in this leading edge area. (A new market opening up and Apple has a 128 GIG M3 UMA laptop and Ultra Mac Studio's 128,192, and a new 256 GIG Mac Studio with UMA coming mid year that are made for AI inference).
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
Don't take my word for it.
Folding phones are the 3D television of mobile devices. The "future" "must have" that is neither. I have to laugh about "still plenty of demand." STILL? There has never been "plenty" of demand for these niche and expensive phones that have miniscule market share. Even riding the subway and walking through midtown NYC each day, I have yet to see one in the wild. Meanwhile, iPhones are beyond ubiquitous. But the world of non-Apple tech has long been filled with shiny object tricks that offer "solutions" to problems that don't exist. Their other trick is loss-leader pricing in phones, which is the reason why--despite dominating Apple by far in overall sales--ALL of the other phone makers combined only earn 15% of global smartphone profits. Apple takes the other 85%.
When I mentioned the 'novelty effect' it was a nod to 3D TVs that had a four year honeymoon (2010-2014 give or take).
The same cannot be said of folding phones which are showing positive growth in a flat smartphone market. YoY growth.
It's very likely that Apple is working on such a phone/tablet or whatever, precisely because there is a market for them.
No. They are not ubiquitous by any means but, ironically, the first one I saw in the wild was with a old-ish lady on a bus! That was a few years ago now. Since then I've seen more. My brother switched his entire family over.
As for profits, what does that have to do with anything?
I'd rather a company plough resources into R&D/products that meet consumer needs than deliberately hold things back and then drip feed me with them. Even the simplest of things like unlocking a phone with FaceID in landscape. It took them years to do that.
Other companies have remained profitable yet spent more on R&D.
All of the folding phones from the knockoff brands are junk, for sure. That being said, I won’t make a pre-determination about a potential Apple product, because I know their implementation and value proposition will not be the same as the knockoffs’. Same story we’ve seen time again — not first, definitely best.
You’re so insufferable!
I don't agree with you on this. @StrangeDays has mellowed down significantly in his posts/replies to posts in the last couple of years. Prior to that, any criticism against Apple would be met with an ultra aggressive response from him. That is not the case in the last couple of years. His responses have become lot more polite (when compared to his earlier posts) and restrained. Kudos to him for that change. You may not like some of the choices of his words (I assume the usage of the word "knockoff" triggered you in this case), but they are not insufferable by any means. Even this post seems pretty reasonable to me (this forum is AppleInsider not AndroidInsider, isn't it?), unlike others in this thread who dismiss the foldable phone concept even today.
I’m not opposed to a folding screen phone, but so far every single one I’ve seen made me wonder why anyone would buy them. My biggest gripe is the very noticeable crease. Then of course the price premium, and finally the form factors (folded/unfolded). While the small square format unfolding to full size phone format makes sense to me, the full size unfolding to a square screen is completely useless: you’re not increasing the largest dimension, so why bother? Now you have a big square screen with a crease, big whoop. The Microsoft version of folding (using two separate screens) made a lot more sense to me — and it didn’t really make much sense.
What problem does the foldable iPhone solve again?
Doubling the screen size while not losing portability.
Multi-tasking with side-by-side apps.
More immersive gaming.
Options to use the main camera for selfies.
Option to use main camera view for subjects to see themselves.
And of course the option of the best of both worlds in screen options (folded or unfolded).
Apple will definitely use all of these points in marketing if they release a folding phone.
These suggestions notwithstanding, there really isn't a compelling use case for a folding iPhone. "Ooo look! It folds!" is good for about twenty minutes of very expensive amusement, but Apple has never been a bells and whistles sort of company. If a folding screen comes from Apple, it's most likely to be an iPad, where greater portability for a larger device could be useful, and a second screen on the outside of the device isn't needed as would be the likely case for a folding phone.
I think it's safe to say that we are now beyond the novelty effect as the market has spoken. People want larger devices in a smaller form factor.
Almost five years into the folding era demand is still growing with the main thing holding folding phones back being price.
A folding tablet will inevitably arrive along with probably triple folding devices.
Scrollable devices will achieve the same goals.
The market has spoken? Other than your personal advocacy here, I’ve seen no evidence for that.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
Don't take my word for it.
Folding phones are the 3D television of mobile devices. The "future" "must have" that is neither. I have to laugh about "still plenty of demand." STILL? There has never been "plenty" of demand for these niche and expensive phones that have miniscule market share. Even riding the subway and walking through midtown NYC each day, I have yet to see one in the wild. Meanwhile, iPhones are beyond ubiquitous. But the world of non-Apple tech has long been filled with shiny object tricks that offer "solutions" to problems that don't exist. Their other trick is loss-leader pricing in phones, which is the reason why--despite dominating Apple by far in overall sales--ALL of the other phone makers combined only earn 15% of global smartphone profits. Apple takes the other 85%.
When I mentioned the 'novelty effect' it was a nod to 3D TVs that had a four year honeymoon (2010-2014 give or take).
The same cannot be said of folding phones which are showing positive growth in a flat smartphone market. YoY growth.
It's very likely that Apple is working on such a phone/tablet or whatever, precisely because there is a market for them.
No. They are not ubiquitous by any means but, ironically, the first one I saw in the wild was with a old-ish lady on a bus! That was a few years ago now. Since then I've seen more. My brother switched his entire family over.
As for profits, what does that have to do with anything?
I'd rather a company plough resources into R&D/products that meet consumer needs than deliberately hold things back and then drip feed me with them. Even the simplest of things like unlocking a phone with FaceID in landscape. It took them years to do that.
Other companies have remained profitable yet spent more on R&D.
2% of 1.15 billion is 23 million. There really isn't any reason that Apple needs to jump into the market at this time, and Samsung is definitely playing the long game on Apple.
I'd rather a company plough resources into R&D/products that meet consumer needs than deliberately hold things back and then drip feed me with them. Even the simplest of things like unlocking a phone with FaceID in landscape. It took them years to do that.
Other companies have remained profitable yet spent more on R&D.
Most are barely profitable, and Apple is still taking something on the order of 85% of those smartphone profits, so "drip feed" or no, Apple seems to have the best formula to date.
Oh, and Apple is likely the highest ranking of all the smartphone manufacturers for R&D, and that's even including Huawei;
Apple's total R&D expenditure for the 2023 fiscal year stands at nearly US$30 billion, a nearly 14% increase from the previous year's US$26.251 billion, and a substantial 36.5% growth compared to 2021.Nov 9, 2023
and;
Huawei Spent Almost USD24 Billion on R&D in 2023 to Deal With US Tech Sanctions, Founder Says
What problem does the foldable iPhone solve again?
Doubling the screen size while not losing portability.
Multi-tasking with side-by-side apps.
More immersive gaming.
Options to use the main camera for selfies.
Option to use main camera view for subjects to see themselves.
And of course the option of the best of both worlds in screen options (folded or unfolded).
Apple will definitely use all of these points in marketing if they release a folding phone.
These suggestions notwithstanding, there really isn't a compelling use case for a folding iPhone. "Ooo look! It folds!" is good for about twenty minutes of very expensive amusement, but Apple has never been a bells and whistles sort of company. If a folding screen comes from Apple, it's most likely to be an iPad, where greater portability for a larger device could be useful, and a second screen on the outside of the device isn't needed as would be the likely case for a folding phone.
I think it's safe to say that we are now beyond the novelty effect as the market has spoken. People want larger devices in a smaller form factor.
Almost five years into the folding era demand is still growing with the main thing holding folding phones back being price.
A folding tablet will inevitably arrive along with probably triple folding devices.
Scrollable devices will achieve the same goals.
The market has spoken? Other than your personal advocacy here, I’ve seen no evidence for that.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
Don't take my word for it.
I'm sure you're a swell person, but don't worry, I'm not taking your word for it. You say "the numbers speak for themselves," but as far as I can see you're not sharing any of those numbers, so they're not speaking at all. If you want anyone to take your claims seriously, you'll have to cite the numbers you say are there, and also the sources for those numbers. Please note that "plenty" is a subjective term, and that year-over-year statistics are garbage, because a) two data points don't actually represent a trend, particularly when b) those two numbers show "big change" between two small numbers. If you are looking at actual numbers that you're not sharing here, your wording is interestingly descriptive: "almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased." With no other information, whatever your definition of "plenty" is, you're describing five data points, with only two , perhaps the the fourth and fifth, cherry-picked to show an increase. What do the other points show? Volatility? A flat line? A decrease? You'll have to show your work on this one.
I posted a link to Honor sales. I didn't post market based links because I have yet to see a single report that has claimed growth has stalled. Quite the opposite. Everything has claimed strong YoY growth. That is is why I say there is plenty of demand in that segment. It's been like that from day 1.
New players entering the market. New designs. Competition on pricing.
Two points on your data. First, it indicates that you're defining "plenty of demand" as demand that represents a tiny fraction of a percent of global smartphone sales. You're talking exactly about a niche novelty market. This reinforces what I wrote above: a "big change" in tiny numbers doesn't really represent much. In the context of the smartphone category, a 64% increase in sales of something that that represents a fraction of a percent of the market lives within the statistical margins of error. Sales of foldable smartphones have no statistical impact on the global smartphone market. It is probably less of a blip on the radar than the results of a major cellphone carrier's holiday sales promotion for any given device. Second, if you read to the end of your own linked source, the quoted experts indicate that they have no expectation of a foldable iPhone entering the market any time in the near future. Pronouncements based on fluctuations within the statistical margins of error are tales signifying nothing, and they don't even generate any sound or fury.
There are no analysts at Apple Park looking at those numbers and saying "Holy crap! We need to jump on this one quick before we get swamped and left behind by foldable phone sales!" No, as always, the Apple folks are asking (if they're even asking) "What is the compelling use case for this technology? How does a folding screen on a smartphone become an indispensable device?" As far as I can see, there really isn't one.
As for profits, what does that have to do with anything?
Simply this: when the only way companies can compete for or retain market share is based on price, then they sell phones for little or no profit. Not to point out the obvious, but that's a terrible, desperate strategy for any for-profit business. And that is the story for all phone makers except for Apple. Of course, neither Samsung nor Google are reliant on phone sales to stay afloat, but the margins are hardly good business for either one of them.
Hopefully, Apple is challenging them to create a reverse fold or bidirectional fold so the full-screen area is outside. Or, a Trifold so at least part of the screen is always facing outwards.
In either instance, you could pick up the device and use it to start a task. Unfold it if you need more space, and with no loss of context, it could animate out to use the full screen.
Trifold would create good aspect ratios between folded and unfolded. We got rid of an old Mac SE in the office the other day and we were laughing that the common iPhone now was as tall as early Mac screens but about a 1/3 the width. (yes processing power, raw pixel count, power efficiency, and connectivity are all vastly better on the phone).
What problem does the foldable iPhone solve again?
Doubling the screen size while not losing portability.
Multi-tasking with side-by-side apps.
More immersive gaming.
Options to use the main camera for selfies.
Option to use main camera view for subjects to see themselves.
And of course the option of the best of both worlds in screen options (folded or unfolded).
Apple will definitely use all of these points in marketing if they release a folding phone.
These suggestions notwithstanding, there really isn't a compelling use case for a folding iPhone. "Ooo look! It folds!" is good for about twenty minutes of very expensive amusement, but Apple has never been a bells and whistles sort of company. If a folding screen comes from Apple, it's most likely to be an iPad, where greater portability for a larger device could be useful, and a second screen on the outside of the device isn't needed as would be the likely case for a folding phone.
I think it's safe to say that we are now beyond the novelty effect as the market has spoken. People want larger devices in a smaller form factor.
Almost five years into the folding era demand is still growing with the main thing holding folding phones back being price.
A folding tablet will inevitably arrive along with probably triple folding devices.
Scrollable devices will achieve the same goals.
The market has spoken? Other than your personal advocacy here, I’ve seen no evidence for that.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
Don't take my word for it.
Folding phones are the 3D television of mobile devices. The "future" "must have" that is neither. I have to laugh about "still plenty of demand." STILL? There has never been "plenty" of demand for these niche and expensive phones that have miniscule market share. Even riding the subway and walking through midtown NYC each day, I have yet to see one in the wild. Meanwhile, iPhones are beyond ubiquitous. But the world of non-Apple tech has long been filled with shiny object tricks that offer "solutions" to problems that don't exist. Their other trick is loss-leader pricing in phones, which is the reason why--despite dominating Apple by far in overall sales--ALL of the other phone makers combined only earn 15% of global smartphone profits. Apple takes the other 85%.
When I mentioned the 'novelty effect' it was a nod to 3D TVs that had a four year honeymoon (2010-2014 give or take).
The same cannot be said of folding phones which are showing positive growth in a flat smartphone market. YoY growth.
It's very likely that Apple is working on such a phone/tablet or whatever, precisely because there is a market for them.
No. They are not ubiquitous by any means but, ironically, the first one I saw in the wild was with a old-ish lady on a bus! That was a few years ago now. Since then I've seen more. My brother switched his entire family over.
As for profits, what does that have to do with anything?
I'd rather a company plough resources into R&D/products that meet consumer needs than deliberately hold things back and then drip feed me with them. Even the simplest of things like unlocking a phone with FaceID in landscape. It took them years to do that.
Other companies have remained profitable yet spent more on R&D.
2% of 1.15 billion is 23 million. There really isn't any reason that Apple needs to jump into the market at this time, and Samsung is definitely playing the long game on Apple.
I'd rather a company plough resources into R&D/products that meet consumer needs than deliberately hold things back and then drip feed me with them. Even the simplest of things like unlocking a phone with FaceID in landscape. It took them years to do that.
Other companies have remained profitable yet spent more on R&D.
Most are barely profitable, and Apple is still taking something on the order of 85% of those smartphone profits, so "drip feed" or no, Apple seems to have the best formula to date.
Oh, and Apple is likely the highest ranking of all the smartphone manufacturers for R&D, and that's even including Huawei;
Apple's total R&D expenditure for the 2023 fiscal year stands at nearly US$30 billion, a nearly 14% increase from the previous year's US$26.251 billion, and a substantial 36.5% growth compared to 2021.Nov 9, 2023
and;
Huawei Spent Almost USD24 Billion on R&D in 2023 to Deal With US Tech Sanctions, Founder Says
Like I said, plenty of demand and showing no signs of slowing down (and in what has been a shrinking market overall).
While insignificant when compared to the wider and fully established slab phone market it is very significant from a folding phone perspective.
Also, and given the ultra premium pricing of some of these phones, it is reasonable to assume that Apple is losing potential sales to consumers that want a folding device.
The 'drip feed formula' is the absolute worst for consumers who are being charged more and receiving less.
You are cherry picking your R&D data and your own link shows that Apple only managed that jump due to a 14% increase in spending. I seem to remember that in the previous years it was a very different story.
That 14% increase was direly needed though and they will probably spend a similar sum this year. However, that wasn't the point.
The point was that even without '85% of the profits', competitors have consistently outperformed Apple in what they bring to market. That is what demonstrates that having the lion's share of profit is worthless in consumer terms. In the terms of what consumers have in their hands today.
In that sense Apple has underperformed woefully.
What matters is that you have profits to pump into R&D, not the most profits.
High ASP might be of value to investors but it has no value to consumers.
What problem does the foldable iPhone solve again?
Doubling the screen size while not losing portability.
Multi-tasking with side-by-side apps.
More immersive gaming.
Options to use the main camera for selfies.
Option to use main camera view for subjects to see themselves.
And of course the option of the best of both worlds in screen options (folded or unfolded).
Apple will definitely use all of these points in marketing if they release a folding phone.
These suggestions notwithstanding, there really isn't a compelling use case for a folding iPhone. "Ooo look! It folds!" is good for about twenty minutes of very expensive amusement, but Apple has never been a bells and whistles sort of company. If a folding screen comes from Apple, it's most likely to be an iPad, where greater portability for a larger device could be useful, and a second screen on the outside of the device isn't needed as would be the likely case for a folding phone.
I think it's safe to say that we are now beyond the novelty effect as the market has spoken. People want larger devices in a smaller form factor.
Almost five years into the folding era demand is still growing with the main thing holding folding phones back being price.
A folding tablet will inevitably arrive along with probably triple folding devices.
Scrollable devices will achieve the same goals.
The market has spoken? Other than your personal advocacy here, I’ve seen no evidence for that.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
Don't take my word for it.
I'm sure you're a swell person, but don't worry, I'm not taking your word for it. You say "the numbers speak for themselves," but as far as I can see you're not sharing any of those numbers, so they're not speaking at all. If you want anyone to take your claims seriously, you'll have to cite the numbers you say are there, and also the sources for those numbers. Please note that "plenty" is a subjective term, and that year-over-year statistics are garbage, because a) two data points don't actually represent a trend, particularly when b) those two numbers show "big change" between two small numbers. If you are looking at actual numbers that you're not sharing here, your wording is interestingly descriptive: "almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased." With no other information, whatever your definition of "plenty" is, you're describing five data points, with only two , perhaps the the fourth and fifth, cherry-picked to show an increase. What do the other points show? Volatility? A flat line? A decrease? You'll have to show your work on this one.
I posted a link to Honor sales. I didn't post market based links because I have yet to see a single report that has claimed growth has stalled. Quite the opposite. Everything has claimed strong YoY growth. That is is why I say there is plenty of demand in that segment. It's been like that from day 1.
New players entering the market. New designs. Competition on pricing.
Two points on your data. First, it indicates that you're defining "plenty of demand" as demand that represents a tiny fraction of a percent of global smartphone sales. You're talking exactly about a niche novelty market. This reinforces what I wrote above: a "big change" in tiny numbers doesn't really represent much. In the context of the smartphone category, a 64% increase in sales of something that that represents a fraction of a percent of the market lives within the statistical margins of error. Sales of foldable smartphones have no statistical impact on the global smartphone market. It is probably less of a blip on the radar than the results of a major cellphone carrier's holiday sales promotion for any given device. Second, if you read to the end of your own linked source, the quoted experts indicate that they have no expectation of a foldable iPhone entering the market any time in the near future. Pronouncements based on fluctuations within the statistical margins of error are tales signifying nothing, and they don't even generate any sound or fury.
There are no analysts at Apple Park looking at those numbers and saying "Holy crap! We need to jump on this one quick before we get swamped and left behind by foldable phone sales!" No, as always, the Apple folks are asking (if they're even asking) "What is the compelling use case for this technology? How does a folding screen on a smartphone become an indispensable device?" As far as I can see, there really isn't one.
Demand is demand. That is it.
A small percentage of total worldwide sales is completely irrelevant.
There is plenty of demand for folding phones and this has been shown through consistent YoY growth. Year after year, right up to the most recent quarters.
Niche, perhaps. But some niche! ($25B yearly, and growing). Novelty, definitely not. Novelties wear off, demand slackens and products fall out of the market. There is no indication of that at the moment. The complete opposite is true.
Price will be a limiting factor in how much of that demand transforms into actual sales but, once again, the numbers speak for themselves.
And projections also support the presence of demand:
Point two means little here. It's all speculation. Nothing more.
I don't know what Apple is thinking and analysts don't either but having said that, some people who claim to have some form of insider information do claim a folding iPhone is actually in the works.
'When' is any body's guess and how do we define 'near future'. Is 2024/2025 near future?
As for profits, what does that have to do with anything?
Simply this: when the only way companies can compete for or retain market share is based on price, then they sell phones for little or no profit. Not to point out the obvious, but that's a terrible, desperate strategy for any for-profit business. And that is the story for all phone makers except for Apple. Of course, neither Samsung nor Google are reliant on phone sales to stay afloat, but the margins are hardly good business for either one of them.
But we aren't talking about that. We are talking about companies that balance the ratios out to offer consumers the best possible deal.
People here often talk about the 'race to the bottom' but simultaneously ignore other companies which are ultra competitive, profitable, dedicate huge chunks of revenues (impacting profitability sometimes), file for huge amounts of patents every year and yet are considered Industry leaders.
It's about balance and believe me, Apple has had to change its business model just to keep up.
The claim that 'this is the story for all phone makers except Apple' is simply incorrect.
What problem does the foldable iPhone solve again?
Doubling the screen size while not losing portability.
Multi-tasking with side-by-side apps.
More immersive gaming.
Options to use the main camera for selfies.
Option to use main camera view for subjects to see themselves.
And of course the option of the best of both worlds in screen options (folded or unfolded).
Apple will definitely use all of these points in marketing if they release a folding phone.
These suggestions notwithstanding, there really isn't a compelling use case for a folding iPhone. "Ooo look! It folds!" is good for about twenty minutes of very expensive amusement, but Apple has never been a bells and whistles sort of company. If a folding screen comes from Apple, it's most likely to be an iPad, where greater portability for a larger device could be useful, and a second screen on the outside of the device isn't needed as would be the likely case for a folding phone.
I think it's safe to say that we are now beyond the novelty effect as the market has spoken. People want larger devices in a smaller form factor.
Almost five years into the folding era demand is still growing with the main thing holding folding phones back being price.
A folding tablet will inevitably arrive along with probably triple folding devices.
Scrollable devices will achieve the same goals.
The market has spoken? Other than your personal advocacy here, I’ve seen no evidence for that.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
Don't take my word for it.
I'm sure you're a swell person, but don't worry, I'm not taking your word for it. You say "the numbers speak for themselves," but as far as I can see you're not sharing any of those numbers, so they're not speaking at all. If you want anyone to take your claims seriously, you'll have to cite the numbers you say are there, and also the sources for those numbers. Please note that "plenty" is a subjective term, and that year-over-year statistics are garbage, because a) two data points don't actually represent a trend, particularly when b) those two numbers show "big change" between two small numbers. If you are looking at actual numbers that you're not sharing here, your wording is interestingly descriptive: "almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased." With no other information, whatever your definition of "plenty" is, you're describing five data points, with only two , perhaps the the fourth and fifth, cherry-picked to show an increase. What do the other points show? Volatility? A flat line? A decrease? You'll have to show your work on this one.
I posted a link to Honor sales. I didn't post market based links because I have yet to see a single report that has claimed growth has stalled. Quite the opposite. Everything has claimed strong YoY growth. That is is why I say there is plenty of demand in that segment. It's been like that from day 1.
New players entering the market. New designs. Competition on pricing.
Two points on your data. First, it indicates that you're defining "plenty of demand" as demand that represents a tiny fraction of a percent of global smartphone sales. You're talking exactly about a niche novelty market. This reinforces what I wrote above: a "big change" in tiny numbers doesn't really represent much. In the context of the smartphone category, a 64% increase in sales of something that that represents a fraction of a percent of the market lives within the statistical margins of error. Sales of foldable smartphones have no statistical impact on the global smartphone market. It is probably less of a blip on the radar than the results of a major cellphone carrier's holiday sales promotion for any given device. Second, if you read to the end of your own linked source, the quoted experts indicate that they have no expectation of a foldable iPhone entering the market any time in the near future. Pronouncements based on fluctuations within the statistical margins of error are tales signifying nothing, and they don't even generate any sound or fury.
There are no analysts at Apple Park looking at those numbers and saying "Holy crap! We need to jump on this one quick before we get swamped and left behind by foldable phone sales!" No, as always, the Apple folks are asking (if they're even asking) "What is the compelling use case for this technology? How does a folding screen on a smartphone become an indispensable device?" As far as I can see, there really isn't one.
Demand is demand. That is it.
A small percentage of total worldwide sales is completely irrelevant.
There is plenty of demand for folding phones and this has been shown through consistent YoY growth. Year after year, right up to the most recent quarters.
Niche, perhaps. But some niche! ($25B yearly, and growing). Novelty, definitely not. Novelties wear off, demand slackens and products fall out of the market. There is no indication of that at the moment. The complete opposite is true.
Price will be a limiting factor in how much of that demand transforms into actual sales but, once again, the numbers speak for themselves.
And projections also support the presence of demand:
Point two means little here. It's all speculation. Nothing more.
I don't know what Apple is thinking and analysts don't either but having said that, some people who claim to have some form of insider information do claim a folding iPhone is actually in the works.
'When' is any body's guess and how do we define 'near future'. Is 2024/2025 near future?
That’s not how this works. If it were true that “demand is demand,” regardless of things like percentage of the total market, then every little bump would inevitably become a massive rolling wave that takes over everything. That’s not what happens. That would be chaos. Most little blips come up and then dissipate before leaving much of an impression. That’s why extrapolating out growth of a tiny segment to predict some inevitable trend is folly. You’re playing with numbers in the overall margin of error.
For foldable phones, it returns to the question of a compelling use case. This is what Apple does well. Other manufacturers run with bell and whistle novelties without examining that question first, like a batter closing his eyes and taking a swing, hoping for a lucky home run. They’ll get some takers, but as an expensive novelty, most never get beyond becoming a niche fashion statement that will fade when the next novelty pops up.
Apple takes more time with it, doesn’t jump on every bandwagon, but occasionally picks something up and enters a market with some new tech that others have already released. Everybody scoffs and says Apple will never catch up. Then Apple surprises everyone by becoming market leader in the category.
The reason for this is that Apple has looked at the potential use cases and come up with a design that’s better thought out and becomes indispensable.
So foldable phones made by others are absolutely a novelty. The devices currently on the market aren’t demonstrating some indispensable use case that will drive widespread demand. It’s evident that Apple is looking at foldable screen tech, but that doesn’t make it inevitable that it will make foldable phones. They certainly won’t do that just to chase the fringe sales figures you’re going on about.
Hopefully, Apple is challenging them to create a reverse fold or bidirectional fold so the full-screen area is outside. Or, a Trifold so at least part of the screen is always facing outwards.
In either instance, you could pick up the device and use it to start a task. Unfold it if you need more space, and with no loss of context, it could animate out to use the full screen.
Trifold would create good aspect ratios between folded and unfolded. We got rid of an old Mac SE in the office the other day and we were laughing that the common iPhone now was as tall as early Mac screens but about a 1/3 the width. (yes processing power, raw pixel count, power efficiency, and connectivity are all vastly better on the phone).
Unless they find a way to make the folding parts of the screen bulletproof without trading off the clarity currently available on iPhone screens, this is exactly why a folding iPhone probably won’t happen.
Because people have brief interactions with iPhones hundreds of times a day, the folding part of the screen will be highly vulnerable to failure. The inside of a bifold would be flexed hundreds of times per day, folding, unfolding and eventually tearing or breaking.
Your trifold idea could reduce the need to unfold the device every time the phone comes out of your pocket, but it also makes a hinged screen surface into an outside edge, which then becomes a focal point for friction and impacts from dropping the phone or simply routinely bumping into other objects. All this, with an additional need to somehow stretch around the outside curve of its folding orientation, while shrinking to a flat surface when unfolded without looking like an old man’s wrinkly knees, and also remaining impervious to damage from repetitive flexing.
This problem could be avoided by simply having a separate outside screen like a regular iPhone and an inside square bifold screen for occasional use. That option of course adds huge expense and complexity for less than compelling purposes.
Apple isn’t going to release that device unless the screen hinges can be made even more impervious to damage than their current flat screens. That’s a tall order for a use that still feels like an unnecessary novelty. All of these scenarios are expensive, complex solutions looking for a problem. That’s not how good design is done.
What problem does the foldable iPhone solve again?
Doubling the screen size while not losing portability.
Multi-tasking with side-by-side apps.
More immersive gaming.
Options to use the main camera for selfies.
Option to use main camera view for subjects to see themselves.
And of course the option of the best of both worlds in screen options (folded or unfolded).
Apple will definitely use all of these points in marketing if they release a folding phone.
These suggestions notwithstanding, there really isn't a compelling use case for a folding iPhone. "Ooo look! It folds!" is good for about twenty minutes of very expensive amusement, but Apple has never been a bells and whistles sort of company. If a folding screen comes from Apple, it's most likely to be an iPad, where greater portability for a larger device could be useful, and a second screen on the outside of the device isn't needed as would be the likely case for a folding phone.
I think it's safe to say that we are now beyond the novelty effect as the market has spoken. People want larger devices in a smaller form factor.
Almost five years into the folding era demand is still growing with the main thing holding folding phones back being price.
A folding tablet will inevitably arrive along with probably triple folding devices.
Scrollable devices will achieve the same goals.
The market has spoken? Other than your personal advocacy here, I’ve seen no evidence for that.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
Don't take my word for it.
Folding phones are the 3D television of mobile devices. The "future" "must have" that is neither. I have to laugh about "still plenty of demand." STILL? There has never been "plenty" of demand for these niche and expensive phones that have miniscule market share. Even riding the subway and walking through midtown NYC each day, I have yet to see one in the wild. Meanwhile, iPhones are beyond ubiquitous. But the world of non-Apple tech has long been filled with shiny object tricks that offer "solutions" to problems that don't exist. Their other trick is loss-leader pricing in phones, which is the reason why--despite dominating Apple by far in overall sales--ALL of the other phone makers combined only earn 15% of global smartphone profits. Apple takes the other 85%.
When I mentioned the 'novelty effect' it was a nod to 3D TVs that had a four year honeymoon (2010-2014 give or take).
The same cannot be said of folding phones which are showing positive growth in a flat smartphone market. YoY growth.
It's very likely that Apple is working on such a phone/tablet or whatever, precisely because there is a market for them.
No. They are not ubiquitous by any means but, ironically, the first one I saw in the wild was with a old-ish lady on a bus! That was a few years ago now. Since then I've seen more. My brother switched his entire family over.
As for profits, what does that have to do with anything?
I'd rather a company plough resources into R&D/products that meet consumer needs than deliberately hold things back and then drip feed me with them. Even the simplest of things like unlocking a phone with FaceID in landscape. It took them years to do that.
Other companies have remained profitable yet spent more on R&D.
2% of 1.15 billion is 23 million. There really isn't any reason that Apple needs to jump into the market at this time, and Samsung is definitely playing the long game on Apple.
I'd rather a company plough resources into R&D/products that meet consumer needs than deliberately hold things back and then drip feed me with them. Even the simplest of things like unlocking a phone with FaceID in landscape. It took them years to do that.
Other companies have remained profitable yet spent more on R&D.
Most are barely profitable, and Apple is still taking something on the order of 85% of those smartphone profits, so "drip feed" or no, Apple seems to have the best formula to date.
Oh, and Apple is likely the highest ranking of all the smartphone manufacturers for R&D, and that's even including Huawei;
Apple's total R&D expenditure for the 2023 fiscal year stands at nearly US$30 billion, a nearly 14% increase from the previous year's US$26.251 billion, and a substantial 36.5% growth compared to 2021.Nov 9, 2023
and;
Huawei Spent Almost USD24 Billion on R&D in 2023 to Deal With US Tech Sanctions, Founder Says
Like I said, plenty of demand and showing no signs of slowing down (and in what has been a shrinking market overall).
While insignificant when compared to the wider and fully established slab phone market it is very significant from a folding phone perspective.
Also, and given the ultra premium pricing of some of these phones, it is reasonable to assume that Apple is losing potential sales to consumers that want a folding device.
The 'drip feed formula' is the absolute worst for consumers who are being charged more and receiving less.
You are cherry picking your R&D data and your own link shows that Apple only managed that jump due to a 14% increase in spending. I seem to remember that in the previous years it was a very different story.
That 14% increase was direly needed though and they will probably spend a similar sum this year. However, that wasn't the point.
The point was that even without '85% of the profits', competitors have consistently outperformed Apple in what they bring to market. That is what demonstrates that having the lion's share of profit is worthless in consumer terms. In the terms of what consumers have in their hands today.
In that sense Apple has underperformed woefully.
What matters is that you have profits to pump into R&D, not the most profits.
High ASP might be of value to investors but it has no value to consumers.
Cherry picking data?
LOL!
I should have noted that Google manufactures phones, and they spent something like $43B on R&D this year, and Amazon spends way more than that on R&D. Huawei spends less on R&D than Apple, is essentially a state owned enterprise, and you would agree that they have a broader offering of products outside of phones and consumer products. Perhaps Huawei is doing it wrong, but of course, state owned enterprise for all essential purposes.
Then there is Samsung, which likely also spends more than Apple on R&D, but again, a broad range of products including semiconductors.
Apple is a consumer products company, so I can safely state, that Apple spends more on R&D for consumer products than any other company.
It is true that Apple spends a relatively small percentage of its revenue on R&D, about 7%, compared to these other companies, likely because they are focussed on generating revenue and profits, with a narrow range of products, you know, capitalism, and that 7% comes out of around $400B in revenue.
What problem does the foldable iPhone solve again?
Doubling the screen size while not losing portability.
Multi-tasking with side-by-side apps.
More immersive gaming.
Options to use the main camera for selfies.
Option to use main camera view for subjects to see themselves.
And of course the option of the best of both worlds in screen options (folded or unfolded).
Apple will definitely use all of these points in marketing if they release a folding phone.
These suggestions notwithstanding, there really isn't a compelling use case for a folding iPhone. "Ooo look! It folds!" is good for about twenty minutes of very expensive amusement, but Apple has never been a bells and whistles sort of company. If a folding screen comes from Apple, it's most likely to be an iPad, where greater portability for a larger device could be useful, and a second screen on the outside of the device isn't needed as would be the likely case for a folding phone.
I think it's safe to say that we are now beyond the novelty effect as the market has spoken. People want larger devices in a smaller form factor.
Almost five years into the folding era demand is still growing with the main thing holding folding phones back being price.
A folding tablet will inevitably arrive along with probably triple folding devices.
Scrollable devices will achieve the same goals.
The market has spoken? Other than your personal advocacy here, I’ve seen no evidence for that.
The numbers speak for themselves. Almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased.
Don't take my word for it.
I'm sure you're a swell person, but don't worry, I'm not taking your word for it. You say "the numbers speak for themselves," but as far as I can see you're not sharing any of those numbers, so they're not speaking at all. If you want anyone to take your claims seriously, you'll have to cite the numbers you say are there, and also the sources for those numbers. Please note that "plenty" is a subjective term, and that year-over-year statistics are garbage, because a) two data points don't actually represent a trend, particularly when b) those two numbers show "big change" between two small numbers. If you are looking at actual numbers that you're not sharing here, your wording is interestingly descriptive: "almost five years in, there is still plenty of demand and YoY that demand has increased." With no other information, whatever your definition of "plenty" is, you're describing five data points, with only two , perhaps the the fourth and fifth, cherry-picked to show an increase. What do the other points show? Volatility? A flat line? A decrease? You'll have to show your work on this one.
I posted a link to Honor sales. I didn't post market based links because I have yet to see a single report that has claimed growth has stalled. Quite the opposite. Everything has claimed strong YoY growth. That is is why I say there is plenty of demand in that segment. It's been like that from day 1.
New players entering the market. New designs. Competition on pricing.
Two points on your data. First, it indicates that you're defining "plenty of demand" as demand that represents a tiny fraction of a percent of global smartphone sales. You're talking exactly about a niche novelty market. This reinforces what I wrote above: a "big change" in tiny numbers doesn't really represent much. In the context of the smartphone category, a 64% increase in sales of something that that represents a fraction of a percent of the market lives within the statistical margins of error. Sales of foldable smartphones have no statistical impact on the global smartphone market. It is probably less of a blip on the radar than the results of a major cellphone carrier's holiday sales promotion for any given device. Second, if you read to the end of your own linked source, the quoted experts indicate that they have no expectation of a foldable iPhone entering the market any time in the near future. Pronouncements based on fluctuations within the statistical margins of error are tales signifying nothing, and they don't even generate any sound or fury.
There are no analysts at Apple Park looking at those numbers and saying "Holy crap! We need to jump on this one quick before we get swamped and left behind by foldable phone sales!" No, as always, the Apple folks are asking (if they're even asking) "What is the compelling use case for this technology? How does a folding screen on a smartphone become an indispensable device?" As far as I can see, there really isn't one.
Demand is demand. That is it.
A small percentage of total worldwide sales is completely irrelevant.
There is plenty of demand for folding phones and this has been shown through consistent YoY growth. Year after year, right up to the most recent quarters.
Niche, perhaps. But some niche! ($25B yearly, and growing). Novelty, definitely not. Novelties wear off, demand slackens and products fall out of the market. There is no indication of that at the moment. The complete opposite is true.
Price will be a limiting factor in how much of that demand transforms into actual sales but, once again, the numbers speak for themselves.
And projections also support the presence of demand:
Point two means little here. It's all speculation. Nothing more.
I don't know what Apple is thinking and analysts don't either but having said that, some people who claim to have some form of insider information do claim a folding iPhone is actually in the works.
'When' is any body's guess and how do we define 'near future'. Is 2024/2025 near future?
That’s not how this works. If it were true that “demand is demand,” regardless of things like percentage of the total market, then every little bump would inevitably become a massive rolling wave that takes over everything. That’s not what happens. That would be chaos. Most little blips come up and then dissipate before leaving much of an impression. That’s why extrapolating out growth of a tiny segment to predict some inevitable trend is folly. You’re playing with numbers in the overall margin of error.
For foldable phones, it returns to the question of a compelling use case. This is what Apple does well. Other manufacturers run with bell and whistle novelties without examining that question first, like a batter closing his eyes and taking a swing, hoping for a lucky home run. They’ll get some takers, but as an expensive novelty, most never get beyond becoming a niche fashion statement that will fade when the next novelty pops up.
Apple takes more time with it, doesn’t jump on every bandwagon, but occasionally picks something up and enters a market with some new tech that others have already released. Everybody scoffs and says Apple will never catch up. Then Apple surprises everyone by becoming market leader in the category.
The reason for this is that Apple has looked at the potential use cases and come up with a design that’s better thought out and becomes indispensable.
So foldable phones made by others are absolutely a novelty. The devices currently on the market aren’t demonstrating some indispensable use case that will drive widespread demand. It’s evident that Apple is looking at foldable screen tech, but that doesn’t make it inevitable that it will make foldable phones. They certainly won’t do that just to chase the fringe sales figures you’re going on about.
It is incorrect to propose that every little bump would inevitably become a huge wave.
Pricing here is a key issue and folding phones are not considered 'must haves' as people can get by with regular phones if they want.
Demand is exactly what it is: demand.
There is a market for folding phones and demand has always been there and will increase as prices come down.
We already know this because China has basically been the test bed for the market. There is no reason to suspect that anything will change on the international front.
Pricing on international markets is a clear hurdle to wider success but even in those markets, demand is there. I believe that the US is the second largest market after China.
Right now, there is no valid reason to suggest demand for folding phones will wane and we are now well out of the novelty phase. That is long gone and 'flip' phones in particular are proving to be more budget friendly to the wider consumer market.
Comments
Don't take my word for it.
This a mid 2023 report:
https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/global-foldable-smartphone-market-continues-expand-underpinned-china/
New players entering the market. New designs. Competition on pricing.
Apple has bigger fish to fry next year…....
1. The Apple Vision Pro
1A. Spacial Video
2. Bigger screen iPad
3. Bigger screen iMac.
4. The M3 Ultra Studio Mac (with 256 gigs of UMA memory).
5. AI software support for all of their big UMA memory computers, whatever it takes to support developers, software engineers, programmers in their endeavors in that field, possible servers? at least making it so that anyone who wants to pursue that area can work using multiple Mac studio Ultras with the big UMA memory together, Apple can’t be a crow sitting on the fence in this leading edge area. (A new market opening up and Apple has a 128 GIG M3 UMA laptop and Ultra Mac Studio's 128,192, and a new 256 GIG Mac Studio with UMA coming mid year that are made for AI inference).
https://multiplatform.ai/apple-emerges-as-the-preferred-choice-for-ai-developers-in-harnessing-large-scale-open-source-llms/
https://om.co/2023/10/30/apple-launches-m3-chips-with-ai/
The same cannot be said of folding phones which are showing positive growth in a flat smartphone market. YoY growth.
It's very likely that Apple is working on such a phone/tablet or whatever, precisely because there is a market for them.
No. They are not ubiquitous by any means but, ironically, the first one I saw in the wild was with a old-ish lady on a bus! That was a few years ago now. Since then I've seen more. My brother switched his entire family over.
As for profits, what does that have to do with anything?
I'd rather a company plough resources into R&D/products that meet consumer needs than deliberately hold things back and then drip feed me with them. Even the simplest of things like unlocking a phone with FaceID in landscape. It took them years to do that.
Other companies have remained profitable yet spent more on R&D.
So, what are the numbers;
https://www.wired.com/story/folding-phones-just-keep-coming/
2% of the total market, but sure, increasing...
2% of 1.15 billion is 23 million. There really isn't any reason that Apple needs to jump into the market at this time, and Samsung is definitely playing the long game on Apple.
Most are barely profitable, and Apple is still taking something on the order of 85% of those smartphone profits, so "drip feed" or no, Apple seems to have the best formula to date.
Oh, and Apple is likely the highest ranking of all the smartphone manufacturers for R&D, and that's even including Huawei;
and;
There are no analysts at Apple Park looking at those numbers and saying "Holy crap! We need to jump on this one quick before we get swamped and left behind by foldable phone sales!" No, as always, the Apple folks are asking (if they're even asking) "What is the compelling use case for this technology? How does a folding screen on a smartphone become an indispensable device?" As far as I can see, there really isn't one.
In either instance, you could pick up the device and use it to start a task. Unfold it if you need more space, and with no loss of context, it could animate out to use the full screen.
Trifold would create good aspect ratios between folded and unfolded. We got rid of an old Mac SE in the office the other day and we were laughing that the common iPhone now was as tall as early Mac screens but about a 1/3 the width. (yes processing power, raw pixel count, power efficiency, and connectivity are all vastly better on the phone).
While insignificant when compared to the wider and fully established slab phone market it is very significant from a folding phone perspective.
Also, and given the ultra premium pricing of some of these phones, it is reasonable to assume that Apple is losing potential sales to consumers that want a folding device.
The 'drip feed formula' is the absolute worst for consumers who are being charged more and receiving less.
You are cherry picking your R&D data and your own link shows that Apple only managed that jump due to a 14% increase in spending. I seem to remember that in the previous years it was a very different story.
That 14% increase was direly needed though and they will probably spend a similar sum this year. However, that wasn't the point.
The point was that even without '85% of the profits', competitors have consistently outperformed Apple in what they bring to market. That is what demonstrates that having the lion's share of profit is worthless in consumer terms. In the terms of what consumers have in their hands today.
In that sense Apple has underperformed woefully.
What matters is that you have profits to pump into R&D, not the most profits.
High ASP might be of value to investors but it has no value to consumers.
A small percentage of total worldwide sales is completely irrelevant.
There is plenty of demand for folding phones and this has been shown through consistent YoY growth. Year after year, right up to the most recent quarters.
Niche, perhaps. But some niche! ($25B yearly, and growing). Novelty, definitely not. Novelties wear off, demand slackens and products fall out of the market. There is no indication of that at the moment. The complete opposite is true.
Price will be a limiting factor in how much of that demand transforms into actual sales but, once again, the numbers speak for themselves.
And projections also support the presence of demand:
https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/global-foldable-smartphone-shipments-2027/
Point two means little here. It's all speculation. Nothing more.
I don't know what Apple is thinking and analysts don't either but having said that, some people who claim to have some form of insider information do claim a folding iPhone is actually in the works.
'When' is any body's guess and how do we define 'near future'. Is 2024/2025 near future?
People here often talk about the 'race to the bottom' but simultaneously ignore other companies which are ultra competitive, profitable, dedicate huge chunks of revenues (impacting profitability sometimes), file for huge amounts of patents every year and yet are considered Industry leaders.
It's about balance and believe me, Apple has had to change its business model just to keep up.
The claim that 'this is the story for all phone makers except Apple' is simply incorrect.
Apple takes more time with it, doesn’t jump on every bandwagon, but occasionally picks something up and enters a market with some new tech that others have already released. Everybody scoffs and says Apple will never catch up. Then Apple surprises everyone by becoming market leader in the category.
LOL!
I should have noted that Google manufactures phones, and they spent something like $43B on R&D this year, and Amazon spends way more than that on R&D. Huawei spends less on R&D than Apple, is essentially a state owned enterprise, and you would agree that they have a broader offering of products outside of phones and consumer products. Perhaps Huawei is doing it wrong, but of course, state owned enterprise for all essential purposes.
Then there is Samsung, which likely also spends more than Apple on R&D, but again, a broad range of products including semiconductors.
Apple is a consumer products company, so I can safely state, that Apple spends more on R&D for consumer products than any other company.
It is true that Apple spends a relatively small percentage of its revenue on R&D, about 7%, compared to these other companies, likely because they are focussed on generating revenue and profits, with a narrow range of products, you know, capitalism, and that 7% comes out of around $400B in revenue.
Pricing here is a key issue and folding phones are not considered 'must haves' as people can get by with regular phones if they want.
Demand is exactly what it is: demand.
There is a market for folding phones and demand has always been there and will increase as prices come down.
We already know this because China has basically been the test bed for the market. There is no reason to suspect that anything will change on the international front.
Pricing on international markets is a clear hurdle to wider success but even in those markets, demand is there. I believe that the US is the second largest market after China.
Right now, there is no valid reason to suggest demand for folding phones will wane and we are now well out of the novelty phase. That is long gone and 'flip' phones in particular are proving to be more budget friendly to the wider consumer market.