Apple sells up to 180,000 Apple Vision Pro, says Kuo

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 37
    thttht Posts: 5,507member
    danox said:
    What’s Ming-Cho Kuo’s batting average for predicting Apple products?
    .100
    Baseball batting average doesn't work as an analogy for rumormonger accuracy. Since when do baseball players get to revise their swings or relive their at-bat?

    Remember, Kuo said no more Apple product announcements after September last Fall. Then, Apple announces an event, and issues out an article saying new Mac hardware? How the heck did he miss all 3 M3 SoCs ramping up? So, should we count the second rumor article there? It was a pretty big miss that he had multiple tries at.

    Gurman wasn't that prescient either, but he always careful about guessing. He intimates this or that. He publish an article a day or two before Apple's announcement of an event. That's not a hit. It's just like article on when the VP will ship early this month. That's not a hit when something is eminent.
    dewmeAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 22 of 37
    So the estimated ~400,000 units in the first year seems completely reasonable. Sounds like a big win to me
    chasmwilliamlondonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 23 of 37
    Interesting. I thought around 300k would be the launch saturation point. But 180k isn’t bad if true. 

    Now we will see if it has legs. 
  • Reply 24 of 37
    Well 180,000 is pretty damn good considering they can only make 400,000 in the first year. That’s because they can only get 800,000 screens in the first year and these are only sold in the US so far. When the rest of the world gets access to buy them, they will totally sell out the 400,000 for the year. 
    Alex1Nwilliamlondonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 25 of 37
    For a first gen, new category of product, with this complexity, at that price point, it's an amazing feat.
    dewmethtAlex1Nwilliamlondonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 26 of 37
    chasmchasm Posts: 3,347member
    I am surprised to learn that the commenters here do not understand context very well. Specifically, when Mr Kuo said Apple had an active user base of 1.2 billion, he was not referring to just the US, but to the worldwide base, DURRRRR.

    I understand he’s talking about a product that is, at present, only available in the US, but that is VERY likely to change over the next few months, so thinking ahead (AS HE WAS) and looking at the potential customer base, the initial strong reception bodes well for expanding availability as production ramps up, even if sales have now settled down in the US to what I expect will be normal niche levels for another year or so.

    Apple **clearly** believes the other big players will be coming out with similar headsets over the next two years, and that such a product will move into a certain segment of “mainstream” popularity. I believe they’re right — Meta is already busy on the next Oculus, and you can bet Google won’t miss out on the opportunity to show GIANT DATA COLLECTING ADS, :smiley: , so I think you can count on at least three if not four (Microsoft) major new headsets available in the next year or so.
    9secondkox2watto_cobra
  • Reply 27 of 37
    3500 x 180,000 = 630 Million

    That pays for a lot of R&D.
    9secondkox2watto_cobra
  • Reply 28 of 37
    cjw99 said:
    3500 x 180,000 = 630 Million

    That pays for a lot of R&D.
    You mean the R&D already put in, plus marketing, plus manpower, plus manufacturing, plus materials, plus cameras and sensors, plus freight, plus… hmmm… suddenly doesnt sounds so good. 

    But hey, it’s always like that. these things are amortized over a long sales process. 
    edited January 22 designrwatto_cobra
  • Reply 29 of 37
    JFC_PAJFC_PA Posts: 934member
    So from soaring lead times to “falling”. Pump the dump. 
    edited January 22 watto_cobra
  • Reply 30 of 37
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 15,360moderator
    chasm said:
    I understand he’s talking about a product that is, at present, only available in the US, but that is VERY likely to change over the next few months, so thinking ahead (AS HE WAS) and looking at the potential customer base, the initial strong reception bodes well for expanding availability as production ramps up, even if sales have now settled down in the US to what I expect will be normal niche levels for another year or so.
    Apple's press release said the international launch would be later this year:

    https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2023/06/introducing-apple-vision-pro/

    "Apple Vision Pro starts at $3,499 (U.S.), and will be available early next year on apple.com and at Apple Store locations in the U.S., with more countries coming later next year."

    Meta Quest sells 5-10m units per year at around $500.
    iPad and Mac revenue are ~$30b each. If Vision Pro was to match this revenue, this would be just over 8m units.

    Typically international sales are 1.5x US sales, which would be nearly 300k launch week.

    If they can sustain 50k units per week worldwide, this will be just over 2.5m units for the year, which would be a good result.
    williamlondonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 31 of 37
    doggonedoggone Posts: 385member
    If Apple really did sell 180K in 18 minutes, that meant the revenue was around 630 million dollars.  That isn't bad for a high end equipment with limited supply.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 32 of 37
    jdwjdw Posts: 1,370member
    Marvin said:
    Meta Quest sells 5-10m units per year at around $500.

    It's simply amazing to me that so many people don't mind wearing a heavy thing on their head and face.  Then again, I dislike even wearing a wristwatch, so perhaps I am just unique.  Despite my own personal dislike of wearables, I as an AAPL investor do hope that Apple does well with this device.  Vision Pro is the next big step toward the future.  And while it surely won't happen until long after I'm gone, that future will certainly involve something not too dissimilar from the Star Trek Holodeck.  That would take "insanely great" to a whole new level.

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 33 of 37
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 15,360moderator
    jdw said:
    Marvin said:
    Meta Quest sells 5-10m units per year at around $500.

    It's simply amazing to me that so many people don't mind wearing a heavy thing on their head and face.  Then again, I dislike even wearing a wristwatch, so perhaps I am just unique.  Despite my own personal dislike of wearables, I as an AAPL investor do hope that Apple does well with this device.  Vision Pro is the next big step toward the future.  And while it surely won't happen until long after I'm gone, that future will certainly involve something not too dissimilar from the Star Trek Holodeck.  That would take "insanely great" to a whole new level.

    People tend not to wear VR headsets for long (< 2 hours) and they aren't being used much at all after purchase, mostly due to a lack of content.

    They are used for popular experiences like Beat Saber and Half-Life Alyx, which are worth spending $300-500 for:

    https://gamerant.com/top-selling-vr-games-according-steam/

    Apple is pushing more regular uses like TV and movies. A bulky headset isn't nice to have to wear but people wear headphones like Airpods Max for hours.

    The technology will get more comfortable and immersive as it develops. Disney showed off a walking trackpad (3:20):



    This will allow walking in VR without banging into things.
    edited January 23 watto_cobra
  • Reply 34 of 37
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,286member
    Reports circulating today calim bots were able to order 1000's of the Vision Pro units, despite Apple requiring face scans and an Apple ID. Somehow, they were able to bypass both of those. Just one particular buyer was able to order 1,592 of them, and there were far more than a dozen bots at work snapping up units.

    Based on what I can gather from claims, I would not be shocked to learn upwards of 20% of the sales total was purchased by scam bots, whose owners then listed them for sale at ridiculous prices on eBay etc. 
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 35 of 37
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 15,360moderator
    gatorguy said:
    Reports circulating today calim bots were able to order 1000's of the Vision Pro units, despite Apple requiring face scans and an Apple ID. Somehow, they were able to bypass both of those. Just one particular buyer was able to order 1,592 of them, and there were far more than a dozen bots at work snapping up units.

    Based on what I can gather from claims, I would not be shocked to learn upwards of 20% of the sales total was purchased by scam bots, whose owners then listed them for sale at ridiculous prices on eBay etc. 
    Seems far-fetched. To buy 20k units would cost $70m and in order to sell them again, the scalpers either have to send their face scan or have to pick up the product in store after getting fitted, then the buyer has to take it back to the store to get fitted again x20,000 times.

    This seller only had 3 available:

    https://www.ebay.com/itm/325975473681

    People typically use bots to make sure they get one, not that they get thousands. I'd guess the one with the 1592 orders didn't pay the $5.5m but rather only paid for a few. I'm sure there are some twisted millionaires out there who would be into doing this kind of thing but this would be way too much effort for the return.

    Thousands of people could have bought a few each with the intention of selling them but a lot more would have shown on eBay. There's only around 200 active listings and 17 shown as sold.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 36 of 37
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,286member
    Marvin said:
    gatorguy said:
    Reports circulating today calim bots were able to order 1000's of the Vision Pro units, despite Apple requiring face scans and an Apple ID. Somehow, they were able to bypass both of those. Just one particular buyer was able to order 1,592 of them, and there were far more than a dozen bots at work snapping up units.

    Based on what I can gather from claims, I would not be shocked to learn upwards of 20% of the sales total was purchased by scam bots, whose owners then listed them for sale at ridiculous prices on eBay etc. 
    Seems far-fetched. To buy 20k units would cost $70m and in order to sell them again, the scalpers either have to send their face scan or have to pick up the product in store after getting fitted, then the buyer has to take it back to the store to get fitted again x20,000 times.

    This seller only had 3 available:

    https://www.ebay.com/itm/325975473681

    People typically use bots to make sure they get one, not that they get thousands. I'd guess the one with the 1592 orders didn't pay the $5.5m but rather only paid for a few. I'm sure there are some twisted millionaires out there who would be into doing this kind of thing but this would be way too much effort for the return.

    Thousands of people could have bought a few each with the intention of selling them but a lot more would have shown on eBay. There's only around 200 active listings and 17 shown as sold.
    Have you looked at Facebook Marketplace? I haven't yet, I don't have Facebook so I'll have to ask my wife to check, but I understood there wee quite a few available there, which makes sense economically.  

    EDIT: My wife finds 11 for sale within 50 miles of us. Seems like a lot for a relatively small area. 
    edited January 24 muthuk_vanalingam
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