The typical 'too bad. my credit card is waiting. Apple is taking too long' crowd has entered the chat.
Meanwhile their current computer does everything they need everyday.
Exactly. I bought an M2 iPad Pro three months before the M4 was released. It does everything I need it to do, and more, as quickly as I need it done. I have no regrets.
Might consider a Mac Mini if one were to be released, but I have no real need for one at the moment. 🤣
I suppose the M4 is too new (and in the wrong hardware!) for anyone to know whether it has addressed the GoFetch problem. M3 has a partial fix. I can’t help but think that Apple is moving quickly to M3 (think about how quickly they started upgrading MacBook Air to M3) and M4 in order to limit the installed base of M1 and M2 as well as satisfy security-conscious enterprise customers.
Someone elsewhere referred to Gurman as “Mark Schrödinger” which is apt.
But yes, if there aren’t any rumors at this point then there isn’t anything coming. It’s too soon for the Studio and Pro, and too late for the Mini.
I think Apple will relax and let Qualcomm kill, once and for all, the idea that RAM should be replaceable after purchase (Dell is using the euphemism “integrated RAM,” LOL) in an efficient laptop. HP is charging $150 to double the RAM (16GB to 32GB, the only two options for the OmniBook) in the Qualcomm SoC. So now Apple’s approach to memory and upgrade pricing doesn’t seem quite so outrageous.
I was really hoping that they’d release an M4 Extreme version of the Mac Pro. That machine really needs a reason to exist and the current generation doesn’t meet those requirements.
Why do PC makers have to constantly release new product? Sony by comparison have released 5 PlayStation models in 29 years. It’s become as wasteful as fast fashion despite all the bullshit talk of recycling materials etc. The irony is of course that Apple products have a really long service life if you’re not a power user. I have had 3 Macs since 1999; ‘99 Tangerine iBook, 2005 iMac G5, 2011 MBA. Will be upgrading to an M4 MBP when they’re released this year and see how long I can keep it trucking!
Personally I’m happy they release a new version each year. Not because I replace my MacBook Pro and Mac Pro Tower every year, but because when I do decide to upgrade I get a good one. If they only released new Macs every 3-5 years whomever buys one near the end of the generation gets screwed over.
My 2019 Mac Pro is ready for a move to Apple Silicon. But the current model is just a sad joke. Might have to go Apple Studio route as my need for expansion lanes isn’t that great, but man would I be a day one buyer of an Extreme version of the Mac Pro.
Apple would be leaving money on the table if they don’t update the Studio & Mini
Apple net income 2023 = $97b Mac revenue 2023 = $29b Mac desktop revenue = ~10% = ~$3b Mac Studio & mini revenue = < 5% = < $1.5b Mac Studio & mini net margin ~25% = $0.37b
That's how much would be left on the table, assuming nobody bought the older ones that are available now. How much potential revenue determines most companies' priorities.
It's not like the Studio and Pro are outdated, they were refreshed 12 months ago. The mini is 1.5 years out. They can throw an M4 in the mini whenever they want but it's not impacting Apple's income.
Apple isn’t doing itself any favors by not updating the Mac Studio and pro this month. This rumor makes no sense unless Apple isn’t serious anymore about their desktop pro lines
They aren't "serious" about their entire desktop line. Look at the iMac 24. It did not get an M2 SoC and went over 2 years without update. Sound familiar?
One the one hand, it speaks to desktop computers being only 10% of their Mac units, but on the other hand, you'd think the effort to update the iMac, Mac mini and Mac Studio on a yearly basis to be minimal. It should be worth that effort, but sigh. Same with everything that is not iPhone, Watch or Macbook. iPads could go 18 months or more. Apple TV is every 2 years or more. Some story with the software too.
For the M Ultra, they need to find a way to put it into the MBP16 and for use as a server, to spread the development costs around so that they can have yearly Mac Studio and Mac Pro updates.
once we hit 2 nm, I believe we will see Ultra SOCs in MBPs. Especially if it’s a monolithic die.
They could do it now with the M2 Ultra. There are laptops with freaking 300 W power supplies today. Apple doesn't have to build a 1.5" thick laptop that has a 300 W power supply though. They can do is a Macbook Pro 18" with a 150W power supply. I think there will be a market for that. Derate the M Ultra SoC a little bit - which is mostly preventing it running combined CPU and GPU loads at the max imo - and that would be it.
I think Apple thinks they don't have a market for it, just like Apple thinks there isn't that big of a market for desktops, and year-to-year updates are not warranted.
It's always a good question to ask who and how many people is going to buy an Ultra SoC system from Apple. If there were more engineering applications, I can see it. A lot of command line stuff that can exercise the power in the system though.
The typical 'too bad. my credit card is waiting. Apple is taking too long' crowd has entered the chat.
Meanwhile their current computer does everything they need everyday.
No, I'm using a 2017 iMac Pro, and it's getting VERY long in the tooth. Yes, I DO need the power of a Mac Studio. I'm doing things now I never even dreamed of doing on the iMac Pro. Yes, Apple IS taking too long. Buying an M2-based Mac Studio would be foolish at his point. The M4 in the iPad Pro is 2.8x faster in single core and 1.74X faster in multicore than my old iMac Pro. So please don't make generalizations!
So you have a 7 year old Intel-based Mac but say it would be very foolish to get an M2 Mac Studio released in 2022, which is 5 years newer than your iMac. So that means you don't need use your Mac in a way that would increase your productivity for work to a point that makes the expense worthwhile? If so, then why do you think that M4 Mac Studio would?
I wouldn't bet on a Mac Studio with M4 Max or Ultra being released —which are the two configurations of the Mac Studio) when we just got the M4 chip in an iPad, don't even have the base M4 in a MacBook Air, and don't have any M4 Pro chips on the market. If you have a salient argument as to how and why Apple would somehow skip everything logical to release a Mac Studio M4 Max and Ultra in a week, I'd like to hear it.
Desktop Macs appear to now be on a two-year cycle (at best). Notebooks way outsell desktops, so I think we’ll get at least M4 base models this year, maybe Pro and Max options for the MBPs as usual. The M4 Ultra is almost certainly going to wait till mid-next year.
The kind of double-digit speed increases we’ve seen suggest to me that the Mach5 (my name for the M5 … c’mon Apple that name’s just sitting there) is a 2025 chip, and that major chip changes will likely take longer than we’re used to going forward.
It may well be chip yields and supply chain the need/desire to maximize the use of each part that drives release schedule. And also, for the MBP, Studio, and Mac Pro, it may be that they want to wait for other parts/technology to be available like the next generation of Thunderbolt or RAM etc. And they may not want to release desktops with the base M4 (or M whatever) chip without also being able to release the Pro and Ultra etc chips at the same time. And those might simply take some extra time. I don't know but maybe the factory needs experience producing the base chip for a few months before it can crank out the more complex one? things like that? Even though it seems like the fastest chips should debut in the most professional and expensive models, maybe that's not the one it's going to be for the foreseeable future.
Why do PC makers have to constantly release new product? Sony by comparison have released 5 PlayStation models in 29 years. It’s become as wasteful as fast fashion despite all the bullshit talk of recycling materials etc. The irony is of course that Apple products have a really long service life if you’re not a power user. I have had 3 Macs since 1999; ‘99 Tangerine iBook, 2005 iMac G5, 2011 MBA. Will be upgrading to an M4 MBP when they’re released this year and see how long I can keep it trucking!
I agree this has become a bit crazy. The problem is that when Apple doesn't release a product every year, Qualcomm or Microsoft will do so. And then people fear the platform isn't supported properly and move over...
Apple would be leaving money on the table if they don’t update the Studio & Mini
Apple net income 2023 = $97b Mac revenue 2023 = $29b Mac desktop revenue = ~10% = ~$3b Mac Studio & mini revenue = < 5% = < $1.5b Mac Studio & mini net margin ~25% = $0.37b
That's how much would be left on the table, assuming nobody bought the older ones that are available now. How much potential revenue determines most companies' priorities.
It's not like the Studio and Pro are outdated, they were refreshed 12 months ago. The mini is 1.5 years out. They can throw an M4 in the mini whenever they want but it's not impacting Apple's income.
The big number of total revenue is the sum of a lot of little numbers. If you rationalize ignoring each little number, it will eventually affect the big number.
Apple would be leaving money on the table if they don’t update the Studio & Mini
Apple net income 2023 = $97b Mac revenue 2023 = $29b Mac desktop revenue = ~10% = ~$3b Mac Studio & mini revenue = < 5% = < $1.5b Mac Studio & mini net margin ~25% = $0.37b
That's how much would be left on the table, assuming nobody bought the older ones that are available now. How much potential revenue determines most companies' priorities.
It's not like the Studio and Pro are outdated, they were refreshed 12 months ago. The mini is 1.5 years out. They can throw an M4 in the mini whenever they want but it's not impacting Apple's income.
The big number of total revenue is the sum of a lot of little numbers. If you rationalize ignoring each little number, it will eventually affect the big number.
There are thresholds for how much attention a product line is worth. Although all of the blocks shown on the following image are made up of multiple product models, the headless desktops are < 1/20th of the red block (which is mislabeled iMac instead of Mac).
Headless desktops still contribute to the total but updating those models or not just doesn't change the outcome by a meaningful amount. If they neglected iPads, laptops or iPhones, that would have a significant outcome so those product lines will always get the higher priority.
Apple's been treating their Mac desktops pretty well considering how little revenue they make. There was a time when the Mac Pro didn't get an update for 6 years and the mini for 4 years. 1 year for the Pro and Studio and 1.5 for the mini is well within a reasonable refresh cycle. A refresh any time in the next year would be fine.
Apple would be leaving money on the table if they don’t update the Studio & Mini
Apple net income 2023 = $97b Mac revenue 2023 = $29b Mac desktop revenue = ~10% = ~$3b Mac Studio & mini revenue = < 5% = < $1.5b Mac Studio & mini net margin ~25% = $0.37b
That's how much would be left on the table, assuming nobody bought the older ones that are available now. How much potential revenue determines most companies' priorities.
It's not like the Studio and Pro are outdated, they were refreshed 12 months ago. The mini is 1.5 years out. They can throw an M4 in the mini whenever they want but it's not impacting Apple's income.
The big number of total revenue is the sum of a lot of little numbers. If you rationalize ignoring each little number, it will eventually affect the big number.
Hopefully Apple plans to respond to the Qualcomm and Microsoft challenge Qualcomm in particular has been talking trash since last November about their new Elite Snapdragon processor, Qualcomm was dead in the water with their computer processor division before Apple inadvertently allowed those three engineers get away with their server dreams which Apple is now building anyway (which was inevitable).
Apple Silicon is with it's large bandwidth, low wattage, big UMA memory and very good performance is too good to sit on the sidelines, Apple has to capture development software/hardware mindshare (usage) in the AI computing area and I don't think Apple can let this opportunity pass them by, the relative size number of Mac Studios/ Pro Mac machines/computers Apple can sell is immaterial, Apple has to have a strong presence at both the developers table in addition to the public/consumer end user table.
In short get as many talented smart young people and companies using Apple software/hardware tools early in the so-called AI process. (a M4/M5 Mac Studio Ultra on each software engineers desk with 256-320 gigs of UMA memory).
Comments
But yes, if there aren’t any rumors at this point then there isn’t anything coming. It’s too soon for the Studio and Pro, and too late for the Mini.
I think Apple will relax and let Qualcomm kill, once and for all, the idea that RAM should be replaceable after purchase (Dell is using the euphemism “integrated RAM,” LOL) in an efficient laptop. HP is charging $150 to double the RAM (16GB to 32GB, the only two options for the OmniBook) in the Qualcomm SoC. So now Apple’s approach to memory and upgrade pricing doesn’t seem quite so outrageous.
My 2019 Mac Pro is ready for a move to Apple Silicon. But the current model is just a sad joke. Might have to go Apple Studio route as my need for expansion lanes isn’t that great, but man would I be a day one buyer of an Extreme version of the Mac Pro.
Mac revenue 2023 = $29b
Mac desktop revenue = ~10% = ~$3b
Mac Studio & mini revenue = < 5% = < $1.5b
Mac Studio & mini net margin ~25% = $0.37b
That's how much would be left on the table, assuming nobody bought the older ones that are available now. How much potential revenue determines most companies' priorities.
It's not like the Studio and Pro are outdated, they were refreshed 12 months ago. The mini is 1.5 years out. They can throw an M4 in the mini whenever they want but it's not impacting Apple's income.
I think Apple thinks they don't have a market for it, just like Apple thinks there isn't that big of a market for desktops, and year-to-year updates are not warranted.
It's always a good question to ask who and how many people is going to buy an Ultra SoC system from Apple. If there were more engineering applications, I can see it. A lot of command line stuff that can exercise the power in the system though.
I wouldn't bet on a Mac Studio with M4 Max or Ultra being released —which are the two configurations of the Mac Studio) when we just got the M4 chip in an iPad, don't even have the base M4 in a MacBook Air, and don't have any M4 Pro chips on the market. If you have a salient argument as to how and why Apple would somehow skip everything logical to release a Mac Studio M4 Max and Ultra in a week, I'd like to hear it.
Desktop Macs appear to now be on a two-year cycle (at best). Notebooks way outsell desktops, so I think we’ll get at least M4 base models this year, maybe Pro and Max options for the MBPs as usual. The M4 Ultra is almost certainly going to wait till mid-next year.
The kind of double-digit speed increases we’ve seen suggest to me that the Mach5 (my name for the M5 … c’mon Apple that name’s just sitting there) is a 2025 chip, and that major chip changes will likely take longer than we’re used to going forward.
And then people fear the platform isn't supported properly and move over...
Headless desktops still contribute to the total but updating those models or not just doesn't change the outcome by a meaningful amount. If they neglected iPads, laptops or iPhones, that would have a significant outcome so those product lines will always get the higher priority.
Apple's been treating their Mac desktops pretty well considering how little revenue they make. There was a time when the Mac Pro didn't get an update for 6 years and the mini for 4 years. 1 year for the Pro and Studio and 1.5 for the mini is well within a reasonable refresh cycle. A refresh any time in the next year would be fine.
Hopefully Apple plans to respond to the Qualcomm and Microsoft challenge Qualcomm in particular has been talking trash since last November about their new Elite Snapdragon processor, Qualcomm was dead in the water with their computer processor division before Apple inadvertently allowed those three engineers get away with their server dreams which Apple is now building anyway (which was inevitable).
Apple Silicon is with it's large bandwidth, low wattage, big UMA memory and very good performance is too good to sit on the sidelines, Apple has to capture development software/hardware mindshare (usage) in the AI computing area and I don't think Apple can let this opportunity pass them by, the relative size number of Mac Studios/ Pro Mac machines/computers Apple can sell is immaterial, Apple has to have a strong presence at both the developers table in addition to the public/consumer end user table.
In short get as many talented smart young people and companies using Apple software/hardware tools early in the so-called AI process. (a M4/M5 Mac Studio Ultra on each software engineers desk with 256-320 gigs of UMA memory).