Apple 5 Years from now.

dave k. · June 8, 2003 6:52PM

Anybody want to guess were Apple will be in 5 years? What will there market share look like? Will Jobs still be the CEO? What will Mac OS X be like? What will Apple's core markets be? Will Apple even sell computers?

My predictions:

Apple's Market Share will be around the 5-7%

Jobs won't be the CEO (maybe CTO or something)

Mac OS X will finally have all of the lost Classic functionality that everyone wants.

Apple will lose education (as a whole) but gain hollywood, CAD, and more consumers.

Apple will still sell computers.

Anybody want to give their own predictions to the future of Apple?

Thanks

pscates · June 8, 2003 7:00PM

I actually think I agree with most of that.

As much as I'd like to say they'd have 21% market share and are the exclusive suppliers of computers to the education market, common sense and rational thinking just won't let me.

Jobs might not be "official" CEO (I often wonder if he even SHOULD be), but he'll definitely be the "vision" and the focal point and the one everyone will rally behind and listen to what he has to say.

Kinda like now.

I like his vision and whole general vibe and outlook, BUT I wouldn't mind a ballsier, more aggressive person at the helm, you know? If you combine Steve's vision and Gordon Gekko's "ambition", you'd have a winning leadership team!

But yes, I do agree that Hollywood and consumers will come to our side more and more. And there will be a barrier that we finally break through in the next 1-2 years.

I predict that Macs MIGHT become less "niche-y" and more respected and sought after IF (and this is a VERY big "if", and it directly relates to my point above about Steve) they grow a pair and actually start going after customers, converts, newbies and pissed-off Windows users in a meaningful, dedicated and serious fashion.

I wrote on this subject quite extensively yesterday in another thread.

Although some here believe Panther and the 970 will magically cause a change overnight, I don't buy into that at all. In fact, I think - for consumers, students and newbies - that Apple HAS it all in place (OS X, the iApps, the iMac, iBook, eMac, iPod, the Music Store, .mac, etc.) and THOSE are the people who need convincing and converting.

Pros (on both sides of the platform fence) are generally savvy enough to know what's what and can read, research, know what makes a 970 cool and why OS X being Unix-based is neat and all that.

But consumers, as I said yesterday, don't give two flying damns about that stuff. An OS named after a jungle cat and some vague notion of a new chip from IBM doesn't mean shit to a soccer mom who just bought a digital camera or camcorder and is looking for the simplest, coolest and most elegant way to get the photos/footage of little Matthew's soccer game and his sister's birthday party posted in an attractive online gallery (or easily burned to a DVD) so their grandparents living 2000 miles away in Tucson can enjoy them!

They just want to sit down and use something that works WITH and FOR them...not AGAINST them. The fact that my Mom has owned a really nice digital camera for over one month now and hasn't managed to get ONE IMAGE posted online (she attaches and e-mails them, piece by piece, to everyone) pretty much sums it up. She's frustrated, doesn't understand the goofy, "talking-over-your-head" instructions (I read through them and I don't either!) that come with the piece-of-shit photo-editing and web-building software bundled on her HP.

I keep telling her "Mom, you're really using the wrong platform...". Maybe someday she'll listen and come to agree.

cubedude · June 8, 2003 8:21PM

The biggest problem with switching consumers is that they use Windows at work, and will feel uncomfortable switching. Even with my Mac in the house(for two years), my dad still thinks it feels alien. Apple needs to go after the workplace and then switch over tech-illiterate consumers.

pscates · June 8, 2003 9:58PM

Or, Apple could simply bulldoze Microsoft headquarters? Kinda as a cute "ha, gotcha!" prank, all in good fun, of course.

ghost_user_name · June 8, 2003 10:08PM

I'll take that bulldoze idea with a side of "power cuts" to all major Microsoft servers... hehe lets see Microsoft fix that security hole.

macusers · June 8, 2003 10:13PM

how about just flying over with a Apple marked plane and bombing them right when Gates is look through the window, hahahahaha

pyr3 · June 8, 2003 11:06PM

For the most part I think that education might be taken over by Linux/UNIX. At the college level, it has taken over for the most part in the programming and electrical engineering classes I've been in. Even in math, the boxes in the math labs for Matlab and Maple are Suns. Since Linux is cheap and you don't need a lot of stuff in education like games and such. I think that Linux might take over that, unless there is something I am missing. Any thoughts on that front?

pyr3 · June 8, 2003 11:07PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MacUsers

how about just flying over with a Apple marked plane and bombing them right when Gates is look through the window, hahahahaha

This just reminded me of South Park the Movie when the U.S. bombed the Baldwins because they were Canadian. ;-)

pyr3 · June 8, 2003 11:13PM

Quote:

Originally posted by pscates

Jobs might not be "official" CEO (I often wonder if he even SHOULD be), but he'll definitely be the "vision" and the focal point and the one everyone will rally behind and listen to what he has to say.

He'll be Apple's version of a Disney "Imagineer". (I just remember that some kid in grade school would always say that's what he wanted to be when he grew up.)

inactionman · June 8, 2003 11:35PM

I wonder if at some point, maybe not in five years, Apple will be forced to go the same route as Sega and switch to being a software only company. People will fire up their Apple branded software on their PCs and wistfully remember the days when Apple used to make hardware and say, "you know, they made some kick-ass computers." Actually, I don't think that'll ever happen, it's just a quite, nagging fear of mine that strikes me on sleepless nights. Then I give myself a shake and say, "why the eff am I thinking about a computer company at 3 in the morning?"

My prediction: In five years Jobs won't be CEO be will probably remain as the companies' aforementioned 'imagineer'/guru/spiritual advisor. Market-share will slowly have increased to 10-15% of the consumer market, but will not have changed much in the business world. They'll still be making computers but will be much more focused on software.

ghost_user_name · June 9, 2003 12:01AM

Quote:

Originally posted by pyr3

This just reminded me of South Park the Movie when the U.S. bombed the Baldwins because they were Canadian. ;-)

I think it was Canada that bombed the Baldwins... but i could be wrong.

stagflation steve · June 9, 2003 4:09AM

Apple An IBM Company

der kopf · June 9, 2003 5:21AM

Apple will be bought by HP and all future hardware will run Windows XP only.

ghost_user_name · June 9, 2003 5:29AM

Dear God NO!

costique · June 9, 2003 5:39AM

After a couple of billions invested in bribes Bill Gates makes the Congress officially illegalize Macintosh. Apple will be forced to sell itself to IBM and turn into a software company to port their YWindows? OS to Intel. Steve Jobs will move to Pixar.

barto · June 9, 2003 6:27AM

I predict Apple will still be solvent.

aquatic · June 9, 2003 1:20PM

iBooks will still have G3s.

PC users will still say "d00d when is MAC going to..."

Apple will still be the only leading computer maker to ship its machines without floppy disk drives.

I hope Apple comes back to education. Linux can't do anything without extra work. I know, I have Redhat 8 on a PC next to me in my dining room. It sucks, it's slow on a AMD K6 400mhz with 256 RAM, and doesn't do anything but play mah jong and CDs.

ena · June 9, 2003 1:33PM

jc · June 10, 2003 3:42PM

apple will be Education in five years.

spart · June 10, 2003 4:02PM

Quote:

Originally posted by \\/\\/ickes

I think it was Canada that bombed the Baldwins... but i could be wrong.

Yeah. Canada bombed the Baldwins after we took Terrance and Philip prisoner and were preparing to kill them. After that we declared war on Canada.

Fun stuff.

Apple 5 Years from now.

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