But many people who frequent these boards are looking for the next rumor. And when they hear it, they immediately lambaste it. That's pretty bi-polar.
So what's the point of coming here? It's a rumor site, not an "all correct and verified facts about Apple's future plans" site.
But everyone's entitled to their own opinions. Mine says this could happen, as phones have a higher growth potential than PDAs. Or more precisely, phones that have PDA-like capabilities.
Remember when many said: "Why would Apple build an MP3 player?"
Didn't AllenMCJones report on some other projects too? Something about an underwater digital camera and some other gadget that turned out to be vaporware?
<hr></blockquote>
Agreed. I'd find him a lot easier to believe if he created a new persona for each new rumour.
Does anyone know if a hard drive will shrink small enough to be used in a mobile phone any time soon? I'm holding my iPod in my hand and trying to imagine it with all the extra widgets to make it into a phone, hmmmm, nope!!
To integrate a phone with an MP3 player is dumb, I believe Apple could come up with an excellent phone and possibly licence the operating system in partnership with sony/ericson. Apple missed out on the operating system war to Windows because they wouldn't let the OS be used by other manufacturers, this has been strongly cited as one of the main reasons for Apples small market share. In the world of phone operating systems there is no monopoly by any single company as yet and phone users are more likely to switch to what they consider the best, coolest phone because unlike computers there's none of the baggage such as lack of software etc
I was suprised that Apple didn't produce the OS for the iPod really though, but if they did choose to create 'mini' operating systems for consumer devices I think they stand a good chance of becoming dominant.
I seriously don't see them combining everything together into a uber-giga-hyper-device that walks the dog, remembers birthdays and cleans out your belly button for you.
That said, the sooner Apple can get a device that is a portable HD, MP3 player, GSM, contact, appointment do-hiki out the door (BEFORE Nokia, Sony/Ericsson, Samsung, etc etc) the better viewed it will be. The more it will sell.
There are already dozens of GSMs that have SD card support or onboard RAM for MP3s.
ALSO: IF Apple is indeed planning a phone, BY GOD DONT JUST SELL IT AT APPLE/COMPUTER STORES!!!!! Consumers will NOT go to a computer store to buy a GSM.
If ANYTHING, the alliance with Sony/Ericsson will be fruitful so Apple can use their DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL as well. To make an Apple GSM a success, you need the distro channel, and it costs a LOT of money to create one like that, and especially, time.
So, cuddle up with Sony/Ericcson, share R&D or whatever, and share the distro channel. Blammo. Overnight you have a HELL of a WORLDWIDE channel at your doorstep.
The convergence will happen... lets just hope Apple + Sony/Ericcson will be at the forefront.
<strong>Does anyone know if a hard drive will shrink small enough to be used in a mobile phone any time soon? I'm holding my iPod in my hand and trying to imagine it with all the extra widgets to make it into a phone, hmmmm, nope!!
</strong><hr></blockquote>
Yes, the microdrives are the size of a quarter and hold a gig of data (maybe more) and are used with PDAs. I'm sure Apple's phone would be a bit different than a typical phone, a little better or well rounded than the convergence phones now being introduced. We will see.
Glove 5-person to unlimited-person license (I think we are seing the beginning of this). It is clear that Apple is going after the M$ business & revenue model.
Lucida Digital camera/camcorder. Consumer oriented. Underwater capabilities thrown in but not the major feature. He says that one is on the way soon--it was expected in July.
Wolf Mac clustering package. I have not heard a peep, though many of the pieces are in place. (Wolves run in packs, but are good lone hunters as well.)
Presley New mouse with no buttons, but two different click functions. No sign of it yet.
David's Stone Mentioned in conjunction with a lot of projects, some over-arching strategy of sorts. This one is the one I am interested in.
Iceland Convergence device. See above.
My thought is that we should be patient. Whether or not Mr. McJones is legitimate (my hunch so far is that he is) he is at very least introducing interesting ideas to the boards.
[refrain] If you are skeptical, rather than ad hominem remarks or posts that say "utter crap," that you perhaps a reasoned argument against the possibilities presented might be more interesting to all involved. [/refrain]
Anyway, I am curious about what Mr. McJones has to say. Especially about David's Stone.
For someone who knows more about this than I: How powerful is the iPod processor? How much more powerful would it have to be to deal with any other associated tasks associated with this hypothetical "Iceland?"
That said, the sooner Apple can get a device that is a portable HD, MP3 player, GSM, contact, appointment do-hiki out the door (BEFORE Nokia, Sony/Ericsson, Samsung, etc etc) the better viewed it will be. The more it will sell.
There are already dozens of GSMs that have SD card support or onboard RAM for MP3s.
ALSO: IF Apple is indeed planning a phone, BY GOD DONT JUST SELL IT AT APPLE/COMPUTER STORES!!!!! Consumers will NOT go to a computer store to buy a GSM.
If ANYTHING, the alliance with Sony/Ericsson will be fruitful so Apple can use their DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL as well. To make an Apple GSM a success, you need the distro channel, and it costs a LOT of money to create one like that, and especially, time.
So, cuddle up with Sony/Ericcson, share R&D or whatever, and share the distro channel. Blammo. Overnight you have a HELL of a WORLDWIDE channel at your doorstep.
The convergence will happen... lets just hope Apple + Sony/Ericcson will be at the forefront.</strong><hr></blockquote>
I just don't see the whole convergence thing happening. Never in my 8 years as a product designer have I seen one really good instance of two devices becoming one let alone a whole host of devices.
If you want a kettle or toaster would it serve you any better to get a toasterkettle? Jobs talked about the mac as a digital 'hub' which implies one device with a number of satellite digital devices not a planet with a single orbiting uber fantastic-does everything moon.
Integration is what is being looked for here, devices working 'together' but not as one unit. Supposing you want an MP3 player but don't want a phone? You're asking for an ultra-gadget where as I see their strategy as bringing on board existing technology markets, making them better and making them all play together as happy little bunnies using the mac as an interface.
Apple excel at taking complicated technologies and simplifying them. To integrate phone/mp3 player/ organiser/ games machine/ television/ dishwasher negates this ethos in my opinion, I bought my mobile phone because it did nothing other than be good as a phone it could be a whole lot better but not by adding more 'features'.
Project "Iceland" is the final stage for the iPod and its timeline. It will finally blossom into the next cellphone from Apple. Able to handle all North America, Japan and Europe major carriers. The iPod is the back down into this market.
</strong><hr></blockquote>
Thinking of the word "Iceland" "Pod" and "blossom" got me thinking ......... I went to google.com, typed it in.
There's a flower called "Iceland" that blooms from a pod seed Spread the iPod around, get people hooked, and then turn it into a flower (cellphone). Nice, nice, nice.
Obviously with Bluetooth the phone will be hot syncing with the mac and the Address Book application. First off it would be really slick for the thumbnail images of your contacts to be transferred to the phone. I remember recently a campaign by Samsung for a phone in which the caller's name was displayed on a seperate screen on the outer casing of the phone (it was a flip phone). They touted this as being a major feature and the phone sold like hot cakes. How much cooler for the phone to display an image of the person calling?
Secondly, how about your most played song in iTunes can automatically be set as the ring tone? Also the phone could log all the calls you make and download the information to the mac when it syncs. Things like 'missed calls' would be available on the mac, simply double click and your phone starts dialing the missed caller, the mac could also show you statistics about your calls with a graph etc.
<strong>I don't recall Apple saying they have no plans to enter the cell phone market. I did hear them declare no plans to enter the PDA market, however. If someone can link us to evidence of the former, please let me know.</strong><hr></blockquote>
During the last analyst's meeting at MWNY Jobs responded to a query regarding whether or not the company had looked at producing a PDA. He said that a few years back they had looked at PDA's and determined that anyone selling PDA's would ultimately be in the cell phone business as they were bound to take over the main functions of a PDA.
According to Jobs, Apple then decided not to develop a PDA because they didn't want to go into the cell phone business. Make of that what you will, but in this market, I would look for a high level of integration with third party products before I'd bet on an Apple product.
A thought on this, given that there is a cell phone market. Given that there is a MP3 market. If the cell phone industry wanted to add MP3 capibility to their phones, why wouldn't they want to do that? They've already added contacts, calendars, games, so on.
In other words, in 2 years or maybe even now, a cell phone that plays MP3s will happen. Are there any cell phones that can play an MP3 right now?
Once all cellphones have this ability, what would be the reason to carry around an MP3 player? The cell phone market could kill the MP3 market. Why buy the iPod then?
During the last analyst's meeting at MWNY Jobs responded to a query regarding whether or not the company had looked at producing a PDA. He said that a few years back they had looked at PDA's and determined that anyone selling PDA's would ultimately be in the cell phone business as they were bound to take over the main functions of a PDA.
According to Jobs, Apple then decided not to develop a PDA because they didn't want to go into the cell phone business. Make of that what you will, but in this market, I would look for a high level of integration with third party products before I'd bet on an Apple product.</strong><hr></blockquote>
I would say that anybody in the current MP3 market will be eaten alive by cell phones in 12 months. As the cell phone industry will eventually end the PDA market (PDA market will evolve), they will do the same for the MP3 market. I bet every cell phone sold in 12 months will play your MP3s.....
I ask, where does that put the iPod then? Just an MP3 player with contacts? Apple wouldn't be able to sell one of them? I honestly believe this rumor starting to make sense. This makes sense to me. Makes sense.
I agree; "convergence" was an early 90'es catch-all phrase. There ARE combined devices out there, but thy are rarely succesfull: how many have fridges that surf the Internet?
PDA's are conveyers of visual data while mobile phones and MP3 players deliver sound. That is very much evident in the way the form factors (a late 90'es catch phrase) of a mobile phone and a PDA-like device don't converge. Either the mobile phone will be too clumsy to hold (imagine trying to hold it against your ear with your shoulder), or the PDA-device will be too small to be able to incorporate a screen of a useful size.
There are mobile phones with built-in MP3 players (and even radios), at least on the European and Asian market. The most important user segment (the teenagers), however, prefer to have several, specialized units rather than one. Also, the one obvious way to alleviate the form factor problematics - hands-free earplugs-cum-microphone - takes away the "cool" factor of handling the phone: there is status in showing others that you got (yet another) call not only by the loud melodic sounds (vibrating phones aren't particularly cool either!), but also by your exaggerated gestic rhetoric. The revelation of the unit, the careful study of its screen, the outward/upward swing of your arm towards your ear.
The trend in mobile phone aesthetics have moved towards unfolding units (after it reached a smallness of size that made miniaturizing it impractical ergonomically. The angled shape, when unfolded, makes the phone relatively easy to hold. Had it been possible to unfold it fully and flatten the form as much as it is technically possible (ie, no raised edges, etc), it would have become unacceptably angular in the hand. Don't think that mobile phone designers are unaware of the tactile (and thus to a large extent subconscious) experience involved in using them; it is a major reason why they make hundreds of mock-ups.
One factor that might change all that is the burgeoning market for SMS messages. It is surprising because the ergonomics are lousy, to say the least, but the feeling it conveys of being part of an underground network (Lot 49 over- or under-tones here) has encouraged young generations of users to develop completely new patterns of thumb muscle movements to compensate for the handling problematics (it's true!)
SMS messages, and even more its successor, picture MS (I daren't call it PMS), bridges the island between visual and aural data conveyance. Should videophone-like transmission find a market (depending very much on its price-wise positioning), I might be surprised regarding the convergence aspect - at least in this unit segment.
A while back there was a tread about the integration of cellphones and what they currently can and can't do. I believe it was over in general discussion.
There are a few cell phones that play MP3's the Samsung Uproar is one. I'm not too sure if they still make it though. Here in Japan Cell phones are roughly 2-3 years ahead of what is avaliable currently in North America. The vast majority have built in digital cameras NOW and one or two will even play VIDEO. Almost all have full web access (graphics included) and the vast majority include full colour displays.
For Apple to create a cell phone that is competative it has to be ahead of the game, there are many road blocks here as well... network compatability, carrier requirements, the at the very least apple would have to make 3 different phones to hit the major markets. GSM for Europe, CDMA and or GSM for North America and CDMA for Japan. ALL of the CDMA's run on different frequencies and as I understand it Japan's CDMA isn't compatible with North Americas.
Integration through software is what is needed. I'd love an Apple cell phone because I'm sure that they would do it right. I don't however think that they will be able to produce a cell phone that meets of dreams size being the biggest issue...
What did I pay for that fancy Japanese cell phone that I mentioned. $20 USD, the closest I could get back home would set me back well over $500 Canadian.
<strong>A thought on this, given that there is a cell phone market. Given that there is a MP3 market. If the cell phone industry wanted to add MP3 capibility to their phones, why wouldn't they want to do that? They've already added contacts, calendars, games, so on.
In other words, in 2 years or maybe even now, a cell phone that plays MP3s will happen. Are there any cell phones that can play an MP3 right now?
Once all cellphones have this ability, what would be the reason to carry around an MP3 player? The cell phone market could kill the MP3 market. Why buy the iPod then?
iPod in 1 year:
iPod (Regular) $199
iPod (Iceland) $399
That would be the difference.... offer both.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Yes you can already get cell phones with an integrated MP3 player, however they are not the biggest sellers. Why was the iPod successful? because it allowed you to store a huge amount of music, because you could copy music to it at a very high speed and because it had a revolutionary thumbwheel navigation system making it simple and fast to use.
Are we saying that this iPhone will have firewire? (nice big ugly port on my sexy sleek new cell phone?) and enough storage for 5,10 or 20 Gb of MP3s? Could you include an intuitive and easy to use navigation system that wouldn't get in the way of the functions of a normal cell phone?
The phone will connect with Bluetooth right? too slow to upload huge amounts of MP3s in the same way as the iPod.
Plus I bet it's much easier to persuade someone who is interested in an iPod to buy both the iPod and the iPhone than it is to persuade someone who just wants an MP3 player to buy the Super-Do-All-Ipod-Phone. If the devices are kept seperate Apple might at least get a sale from one of them.
Believe me if I thought an all in one device could work without compromising the functionality of either device I'd be all for it, but from a design point of view it's nigh on impossible and from a business point of view it's just silly.
I think people have been distracted by the extra software functions on the Pod, these are gimmics to brighten up an already world class product I do not believe they portend a PDA/phone future for this device.
I would say that anybody in the current MP3 market will be eaten alive by cell phones in 12 months. As the cell phone industry will eventually end the PDA market (PDA market will evolve), they will do the same for the MP3 market. I bet every cell phone sold in 12 months will play your MP3s.....</strong><hr></blockquote>
One, I highly doubt every cell phone sold a year from now will play your MP3s because not everyone wants to drop $500 on a phone.
Two, I want to own an MP3 player, I DO NOT want to own a cell phone. Sounds like a market to me (maybe i'm the only one though).
One, I highly doubt every cell phone sold a year from now will play your MP3s because not everyone wants to drop $500 on a phone.
Two, I want to own an MP3 player, I DO NOT want to own a cell phone. Sounds like a market to me (maybe i'm the only one though).</strong><hr></blockquote>
What i meant was, Apple could offer both, the MP3 iPod and the Iceland iPod or maybe even offer 3 versions.
iPod (MP3 player/contacts/calendar) $199
iPod (cellphone/contacts/calendar) $399
iPod (MP3 player/cellphone/contacts/calendar)$499
I think apple could extend the brand of the iPod to a cell phone. If there was a device that had the 20 gig MP3 player, last for 10 hours, had my contacts, calendar, I can make calls from it, listen to my music, I would buy one. It just makes sense to me.
How many hours can one play an MP3 on of those MP3 cell phones? Probably like 45 minutes with a memory card or something stupid. No wonder it doesn't sell.
There will always be a market for a mobile phone, mobile music, mobile contacts, mobile calendar. Apple has the music, contacts, calendar covered. Just makes sense to me.
Some of you guys do make so good points against it. Makes sense to me too. I don't know. I just hate my flippin phone but love my 10gig iPod.
I think JYD is correct. This guy's rep stinks. Can we get Kormac or Dorsal to confirm this?
[quote]Originally posted by Junkyard Dawg:
Didn't AllenMCJones report on some other projects too? Something about an underwater digital camera and some other gadget that turned out to be vaporware?
Comments
Utter crap.<hr></blockquote>
Maybe.
But many people who frequent these boards are looking for the next rumor. And when they hear it, they immediately lambaste it. That's pretty bi-polar.
So what's the point of coming here? It's a rumor site, not an "all correct and verified facts about Apple's future plans" site.
But everyone's entitled to their own opinions. Mine says this could happen, as phones have a higher growth potential than PDAs. Or more precisely, phones that have PDA-like capabilities.
Remember when many said: "Why would Apple build an MP3 player?"
Didn't AllenMCJones report on some other projects too? Something about an underwater digital camera and some other gadget that turned out to be vaporware?
<hr></blockquote>
Agreed. I'd find him a lot easier to believe if he created a new persona for each new rumour.
[ 08-29-2002: Message edited by: boy_analog ]</p>
To integrate a phone with an MP3 player is dumb, I believe Apple could come up with an excellent phone and possibly licence the operating system in partnership with sony/ericson. Apple missed out on the operating system war to Windows because they wouldn't let the OS be used by other manufacturers, this has been strongly cited as one of the main reasons for Apples small market share. In the world of phone operating systems there is no monopoly by any single company as yet and phone users are more likely to switch to what they consider the best, coolest phone because unlike computers there's none of the baggage such as lack of software etc
I was suprised that Apple didn't produce the OS for the iPod really though, but if they did choose to create 'mini' operating systems for consumer devices I think they stand a good chance of becoming dominant.
I seriously don't see them combining everything together into a uber-giga-hyper-device that walks the dog, remembers birthdays and cleans out your belly button for you.
the FUTURE is convergence.
That said, the sooner Apple can get a device that is a portable HD, MP3 player, GSM, contact, appointment do-hiki out the door (BEFORE Nokia, Sony/Ericsson, Samsung, etc etc) the better viewed it will be. The more it will sell.
There are already dozens of GSMs that have SD card support or onboard RAM for MP3s.
ALSO: IF Apple is indeed planning a phone, BY GOD DONT JUST SELL IT AT APPLE/COMPUTER STORES!!!!! Consumers will NOT go to a computer store to buy a GSM.
If ANYTHING, the alliance with Sony/Ericsson will be fruitful so Apple can use their DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL as well. To make an Apple GSM a success, you need the distro channel, and it costs a LOT of money to create one like that, and especially, time.
So, cuddle up with Sony/Ericcson, share R&D or whatever, and share the distro channel. Blammo. Overnight you have a HELL of a WORLDWIDE channel at your doorstep.
The convergence will happen... lets just hope Apple + Sony/Ericcson will be at the forefront.
<strong>Does anyone know if a hard drive will shrink small enough to be used in a mobile phone any time soon? I'm holding my iPod in my hand and trying to imagine it with all the extra widgets to make it into a phone, hmmmm, nope!!
</strong><hr></blockquote>
Yes, the microdrives are the size of a quarter and hold a gig of data (maybe more) and are used with PDAs. I'm sure Apple's phone would be a bit different than a typical phone, a little better or well rounded than the convergence phones now being introduced. We will see.
These are the projects Mr. McJones has mentioned:
Glove 5-person to unlimited-person license (I think we are seing the beginning of this). It is clear that Apple is going after the M$ business & revenue model.
Lucida Digital camera/camcorder. Consumer oriented. Underwater capabilities thrown in but not the major feature. He says that one is on the way soon--it was expected in July.
Wolf Mac clustering package. I have not heard a peep, though many of the pieces are in place. (Wolves run in packs, but are good lone hunters as well.)
Presley New mouse with no buttons, but two different click functions. No sign of it yet.
David's Stone Mentioned in conjunction with a lot of projects, some over-arching strategy of sorts. This one is the one I am interested in.
Iceland Convergence device. See above.
My thought is that we should be patient. Whether or not Mr. McJones is legitimate (my hunch so far is that he is) he is at very least introducing interesting ideas to the boards.
[refrain] If you are skeptical, rather than ad hominem remarks or posts that say "utter crap," that you perhaps a reasoned argument against the possibilities presented might be more interesting to all involved. [/refrain]
Anyway, I am curious about what Mr. McJones has to say. Especially about David's Stone.
For someone who knows more about this than I: How powerful is the iPod processor? How much more powerful would it have to be to deal with any other associated tasks associated with this hypothetical "Iceland?"
Hope Springs Eternal,
Mandricard
AppleOutsider
<strong>simple and sweet... and obvious:
the FUTURE is convergence.
That said, the sooner Apple can get a device that is a portable HD, MP3 player, GSM, contact, appointment do-hiki out the door (BEFORE Nokia, Sony/Ericsson, Samsung, etc etc) the better viewed it will be. The more it will sell.
There are already dozens of GSMs that have SD card support or onboard RAM for MP3s.
ALSO: IF Apple is indeed planning a phone, BY GOD DONT JUST SELL IT AT APPLE/COMPUTER STORES!!!!! Consumers will NOT go to a computer store to buy a GSM.
If ANYTHING, the alliance with Sony/Ericsson will be fruitful so Apple can use their DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL as well. To make an Apple GSM a success, you need the distro channel, and it costs a LOT of money to create one like that, and especially, time.
So, cuddle up with Sony/Ericcson, share R&D or whatever, and share the distro channel. Blammo. Overnight you have a HELL of a WORLDWIDE channel at your doorstep.
The convergence will happen... lets just hope Apple + Sony/Ericcson will be at the forefront.</strong><hr></blockquote>
I just don't see the whole convergence thing happening. Never in my 8 years as a product designer have I seen one really good instance of two devices becoming one let alone a whole host of devices.
If you want a kettle or toaster would it serve you any better to get a toasterkettle? Jobs talked about the mac as a digital 'hub' which implies one device with a number of satellite digital devices not a planet with a single orbiting uber fantastic-does everything moon.
Integration is what is being looked for here, devices working 'together' but not as one unit. Supposing you want an MP3 player but don't want a phone? You're asking for an ultra-gadget where as I see their strategy as bringing on board existing technology markets, making them better and making them all play together as happy little bunnies using the mac as an interface.
Apple excel at taking complicated technologies and simplifying them. To integrate phone/mp3 player/ organiser/ games machine/ television/ dishwasher negates this ethos in my opinion, I bought my mobile phone because it did nothing other than be good as a phone it could be a whole lot better but not by adding more 'features'.
[ 08-29-2002: Message edited by: fridgemagnet ]
[ 08-29-2002: Message edited by: fridgemagnet ]</p>
<strong>
Project "Iceland" is the final stage for the iPod and its timeline. It will finally blossom into the next cellphone from Apple. Able to handle all North America, Japan and Europe major carriers. The iPod is the back down into this market.
</strong><hr></blockquote>
Thinking of the word "Iceland" "Pod" and "blossom" got me thinking ......... I went to google.com, typed it in.
There's a flower called "Iceland" that blooms from a pod seed
<a href="http://www.poppypod.com/poppy.htm"; target="_blank">http://www.poppypod.com/poppy.htm</a>;
<strong>It's a rumor site, not an "all correct and verified facts about Apple's future plans" site.</strong><hr></blockquote>
lol. anyone know where i can find one of these "all correct and verified facts about Apple's future plans" sites? i'm mad interested.
Obviously with Bluetooth the phone will be hot syncing with the mac and the Address Book application. First off it would be really slick for the thumbnail images of your contacts to be transferred to the phone. I remember recently a campaign by Samsung for a phone in which the caller's name was displayed on a seperate screen on the outer casing of the phone (it was a flip phone). They touted this as being a major feature and the phone sold like hot cakes. How much cooler for the phone to display an image of the person calling?
Secondly, how about your most played song in iTunes can automatically be set as the ring tone? Also the phone could log all the calls you make and download the information to the mac when it syncs. Things like 'missed calls' would be available on the mac, simply double click and your phone starts dialing the missed caller, the mac could also show you statistics about your calls with a graph etc.
Any other Ideas?
<strong>I don't recall Apple saying they have no plans to enter the cell phone market. I did hear them declare no plans to enter the PDA market, however. If someone can link us to evidence of the former, please let me know.</strong><hr></blockquote>
During the last analyst's meeting at MWNY Jobs responded to a query regarding whether or not the company had looked at producing a PDA. He said that a few years back they had looked at PDA's and determined that anyone selling PDA's would ultimately be in the cell phone business as they were bound to take over the main functions of a PDA.
According to Jobs, Apple then decided not to develop a PDA because they didn't want to go into the cell phone business. Make of that what you will, but in this market, I would look for a high level of integration with third party products before I'd bet on an Apple product.
In other words, in 2 years or maybe even now, a cell phone that plays MP3s will happen. Are there any cell phones that can play an MP3 right now?
Once all cellphones have this ability, what would be the reason to carry around an MP3 player? The cell phone market could kill the MP3 market. Why buy the iPod then?
iPod in 1 year:
iPod (Regular) $199
iPod (Iceland) $399
That would be the difference.... offer both.
<strong>
During the last analyst's meeting at MWNY Jobs responded to a query regarding whether or not the company had looked at producing a PDA. He said that a few years back they had looked at PDA's and determined that anyone selling PDA's would ultimately be in the cell phone business as they were bound to take over the main functions of a PDA.
According to Jobs, Apple then decided not to develop a PDA because they didn't want to go into the cell phone business. Make of that what you will, but in this market, I would look for a high level of integration with third party products before I'd bet on an Apple product.</strong><hr></blockquote>
I would say that anybody in the current MP3 market will be eaten alive by cell phones in 12 months. As the cell phone industry will eventually end the PDA market (PDA market will evolve), they will do the same for the MP3 market. I bet every cell phone sold in 12 months will play your MP3s.....
I ask, where does that put the iPod then? Just an MP3 player with contacts? Apple wouldn't be able to sell one of them? I honestly believe this rumor starting to make sense. This makes sense to me. Makes sense.
PDA's are conveyers of visual data while mobile phones and MP3 players deliver sound. That is very much evident in the way the form factors (a late 90'es catch phrase) of a mobile phone and a PDA-like device don't converge. Either the mobile phone will be too clumsy to hold (imagine trying to hold it against your ear with your shoulder), or the PDA-device will be too small to be able to incorporate a screen of a useful size.
There are mobile phones with built-in MP3 players (and even radios), at least on the European and Asian market. The most important user segment (the teenagers), however, prefer to have several, specialized units rather than one. Also, the one obvious way to alleviate the form factor problematics - hands-free earplugs-cum-microphone - takes away the "cool" factor of handling the phone: there is status in showing others that you got (yet another) call not only by the loud melodic sounds (vibrating phones aren't particularly cool either!), but also by your exaggerated gestic rhetoric. The revelation of the unit, the careful study of its screen, the outward/upward swing of your arm towards your ear.
The trend in mobile phone aesthetics have moved towards unfolding units (after it reached a smallness of size that made miniaturizing it impractical ergonomically. The angled shape, when unfolded, makes the phone relatively easy to hold. Had it been possible to unfold it fully and flatten the form as much as it is technically possible (ie, no raised edges, etc), it would have become unacceptably angular in the hand. Don't think that mobile phone designers are unaware of the tactile (and thus to a large extent subconscious) experience involved in using them; it is a major reason why they make hundreds of mock-ups.
One factor that might change all that is the burgeoning market for SMS messages. It is surprising because the ergonomics are lousy, to say the least, but the feeling it conveys of being part of an underground network (Lot 49 over- or under-tones here) has encouraged young generations of users to develop completely new patterns of thumb muscle movements to compensate for the handling problematics (it's true!)
SMS messages, and even more its successor, picture MS (I daren't call it PMS), bridges the island between visual and aural data conveyance. Should videophone-like transmission find a market (depending very much on its price-wise positioning), I might be surprised regarding the convergence aspect - at least in this unit segment.
But I doubt it.
engpjp
There are a few cell phones that play MP3's the Samsung Uproar is one. I'm not too sure if they still make it though. Here in Japan Cell phones are roughly 2-3 years ahead of what is avaliable currently in North America. The vast majority have built in digital cameras NOW and one or two will even play VIDEO. Almost all have full web access (graphics included) and the vast majority include full colour displays.
For Apple to create a cell phone that is competative it has to be ahead of the game, there are many road blocks here as well... network compatability, carrier requirements, the at the very least apple would have to make 3 different phones to hit the major markets. GSM for Europe, CDMA and or GSM for North America and CDMA for Japan. ALL of the CDMA's run on different frequencies and as I understand it Japan's CDMA isn't compatible with North Americas.
Integration through software is what is needed. I'd love an Apple cell phone because I'm sure that they would do it right. I don't however think that they will be able to produce a cell phone that meets of dreams size being the biggest issue...
What did I pay for that fancy Japanese cell phone that I mentioned. $20 USD, the closest I could get back home would set me back well over $500 Canadian.
Superd
<strong>A thought on this, given that there is a cell phone market. Given that there is a MP3 market. If the cell phone industry wanted to add MP3 capibility to their phones, why wouldn't they want to do that? They've already added contacts, calendars, games, so on.
In other words, in 2 years or maybe even now, a cell phone that plays MP3s will happen. Are there any cell phones that can play an MP3 right now?
Once all cellphones have this ability, what would be the reason to carry around an MP3 player? The cell phone market could kill the MP3 market. Why buy the iPod then?
iPod in 1 year:
iPod (Regular) $199
iPod (Iceland) $399
That would be the difference.... offer both.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Yes you can already get cell phones with an integrated MP3 player, however they are not the biggest sellers. Why was the iPod successful? because it allowed you to store a huge amount of music, because you could copy music to it at a very high speed and because it had a revolutionary thumbwheel navigation system making it simple and fast to use.
Are we saying that this iPhone will have firewire? (nice big ugly port on my sexy sleek new cell phone?) and enough storage for 5,10 or 20 Gb of MP3s? Could you include an intuitive and easy to use navigation system that wouldn't get in the way of the functions of a normal cell phone?
The phone will connect with Bluetooth right? too slow to upload huge amounts of MP3s in the same way as the iPod.
Plus I bet it's much easier to persuade someone who is interested in an iPod to buy both the iPod and the iPhone than it is to persuade someone who just wants an MP3 player to buy the Super-Do-All-Ipod-Phone. If the devices are kept seperate Apple might at least get a sale from one of them.
Believe me if I thought an all in one device could work without compromising the functionality of either device I'd be all for it, but from a design point of view it's nigh on impossible and from a business point of view it's just silly.
I think people have been distracted by the extra software functions on the Pod, these are gimmics to brighten up an already world class product I do not believe they portend a PDA/phone future for this device.
<strong>
I would say that anybody in the current MP3 market will be eaten alive by cell phones in 12 months. As the cell phone industry will eventually end the PDA market (PDA market will evolve), they will do the same for the MP3 market. I bet every cell phone sold in 12 months will play your MP3s.....</strong><hr></blockquote>
One, I highly doubt every cell phone sold a year from now will play your MP3s because not everyone wants to drop $500 on a phone.
Two, I want to own an MP3 player, I DO NOT want to own a cell phone. Sounds like a market to me (maybe i'm the only one though).
<strong>
One, I highly doubt every cell phone sold a year from now will play your MP3s because not everyone wants to drop $500 on a phone.
Two, I want to own an MP3 player, I DO NOT want to own a cell phone. Sounds like a market to me (maybe i'm the only one though).</strong><hr></blockquote>
What i meant was, Apple could offer both, the MP3 iPod and the Iceland iPod or maybe even offer 3 versions.
iPod (MP3 player/contacts/calendar) $199
iPod (cellphone/contacts/calendar) $399
iPod (MP3 player/cellphone/contacts/calendar)$499
I think apple could extend the brand of the iPod to a cell phone. If there was a device that had the 20 gig MP3 player, last for 10 hours, had my contacts, calendar, I can make calls from it, listen to my music, I would buy one. It just makes sense to me.
How many hours can one play an MP3 on of those MP3 cell phones? Probably like 45 minutes with a memory card or something stupid. No wonder it doesn't sell.
There will always be a market for a mobile phone, mobile music, mobile contacts, mobile calendar. Apple has the music, contacts, calendar covered. Just makes sense to me.
Some of you guys do make so good points against it. Makes sense to me too. I don't know. I just hate my flippin phone but love my 10gig iPod.
[quote]Originally posted by Junkyard Dawg:
Didn't AllenMCJones report on some other projects too? Something about an underwater digital camera and some other gadget that turned out to be vaporware?
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[ 08-29-2002: Message edited by: Merlion ]</p>
i would.