"Now" it is time for an Apple hand-held computer.
Years ago we debated whether or not Apple should license the Palm OS and make a pda. Mr. Jobs articulated reasons not to do so. The maturing pda market as well as the somewhat inadequate functionality of WindowsCE confirmed these views. Then the iPod gave Apple a device that could not only push the envelop on the mp3 market, but give it some added value with contacts and calendar functions.
This seemed to me to be good enough ... until this last week. With Dell beginning to enter the hand-held market and Windows slowly gaining respect and style and cost effectiveness with Sony and others, this end of the market is going to change. If the Palm OS starts to loose real ground to WindowsCE, then Apple loses relevance in that market. It isn't obvious now, but I think it will be.
The pda market has matured and may actually contract somewhat. But that doesn't mean hand-held computing is going away, it just means that it will be evolving again. Hand-held mpeg players will refresh things for awhile and like everyone else I can't wait to see how Apple addresses that market. But those won't be enough to deal with the problem. What problem you ask?
Right now you can have an iPod, a pda and a Mac and you are not at any real disadvantage to anyone with an iPod, a pda and a Wintel machine. But what happens next year when you have your iPod/pda/mac while the other person has an iPod/"SuperClie"/wintel ... when the SuperClie actually is very useful. Useful meaning that it can edit as well as read email, can "edit" as well as view mpegs; can "edit" as well as view pdf docs and such.
You may not think this is that important or that the market for editing mpegs on a palm device isn't very big. You are correct for now, but that is beside the point. The point is that in 18 months, there might not be a Handspring company and making the Palm OS optimal for Macs may not be a high priority for future versions. In 18 months Dell may have a sizeable share of the market. Any loss in this "minor" market starts to become significant in the long run.
No matter how many additions are put into the iPod, it will not become a computing device with 4 buttons and a scroll wheel. And it shouldn't. It is almost perfect for its function. I just think that the functions of handheld devices will be changing beyond the mp3 player and the mobile phone and I hope Apple has something in the wings to define the new handheld form-factor. Something pretty, with brains and an elegant input system.
The difference between Apple and Dell or Microsoft, is that Apple doesn't need years of mediocre product evolution before it comes up with good solutions. It doesn't need to put out products years before they are needed...at least since the Newton. Apple seems to be able to do all of that prototyping and refinement in secret bunkers under Cupertino.
This means Apple doesn't need to have the next generation of palm device for 2004 tomorrow, but I think that it does need to address mobile computing in the next 6 months, because in 18 months it may be too late.
PS This is not an apocalyptic thread and Apple won't go under anytime soon. However I do feel the time to change a paradigm is when the old one has reached its peak, not so much later that it is obvious to everyone and even Dell has had time to adapt.
This seemed to me to be good enough ... until this last week. With Dell beginning to enter the hand-held market and Windows slowly gaining respect and style and cost effectiveness with Sony and others, this end of the market is going to change. If the Palm OS starts to loose real ground to WindowsCE, then Apple loses relevance in that market. It isn't obvious now, but I think it will be.
The pda market has matured and may actually contract somewhat. But that doesn't mean hand-held computing is going away, it just means that it will be evolving again. Hand-held mpeg players will refresh things for awhile and like everyone else I can't wait to see how Apple addresses that market. But those won't be enough to deal with the problem. What problem you ask?
Right now you can have an iPod, a pda and a Mac and you are not at any real disadvantage to anyone with an iPod, a pda and a Wintel machine. But what happens next year when you have your iPod/pda/mac while the other person has an iPod/"SuperClie"/wintel ... when the SuperClie actually is very useful. Useful meaning that it can edit as well as read email, can "edit" as well as view mpegs; can "edit" as well as view pdf docs and such.
You may not think this is that important or that the market for editing mpegs on a palm device isn't very big. You are correct for now, but that is beside the point. The point is that in 18 months, there might not be a Handspring company and making the Palm OS optimal for Macs may not be a high priority for future versions. In 18 months Dell may have a sizeable share of the market. Any loss in this "minor" market starts to become significant in the long run.
No matter how many additions are put into the iPod, it will not become a computing device with 4 buttons and a scroll wheel. And it shouldn't. It is almost perfect for its function. I just think that the functions of handheld devices will be changing beyond the mp3 player and the mobile phone and I hope Apple has something in the wings to define the new handheld form-factor. Something pretty, with brains and an elegant input system.
The difference between Apple and Dell or Microsoft, is that Apple doesn't need years of mediocre product evolution before it comes up with good solutions. It doesn't need to put out products years before they are needed...at least since the Newton. Apple seems to be able to do all of that prototyping and refinement in secret bunkers under Cupertino.
This means Apple doesn't need to have the next generation of palm device for 2004 tomorrow, but I think that it does need to address mobile computing in the next 6 months, because in 18 months it may be too late.
PS This is not an apocalyptic thread and Apple won't go under anytime soon. However I do feel the time to change a paradigm is when the old one has reached its peak, not so much later that it is obvious to everyone and even Dell has had time to adapt.
Comments
The most common response to the question, "which technology do you see most likely to die out or absorbed by another product in the next 5 years?" is overwhelmingly the PDA.
Unlike the mp3 player market, which was growing, the PDA market is pretty well saturated and in decline. There really is very little reason to invest in that sort of market.
Basically if Apple wants to spend money on R&D they can get a better ROI if they target other markets and ROI is what it is all about.
Edit: Just made some formatting a little more clear. It was confusing me and I wrote the thing.
[ 10-31-2002: Message edited by: Telomar ]</p>
<strong>Most analysts agree with Steve Jobs on this one in that a very significant portion of the PDA market is quite likely going to be swallowed by the mobile phone market.
The most common response to which technology do you see most likely to die out or absorbed by another product in the next 5 years is overwhelmingly the PDA.
Unlike the mp3 player market, which was growing, the PDA market is pretty well saturated and in decline. There really is very little reason to invest in that sort of market.
Basically if Apple wants to spend money on R&D they can get a better ROI if they target other markets and ROI is what it is all about.</strong><hr></blockquote>
I think youhave made some very good points here.
I dont think Apple will be selling a Palm style device in the near future!
[You must be into management or business or something???]
- MacOS X (2Gb HD) without the unneeded
(not really a light version. they don't want
two different versions)
- G3 (low power, .13 or .10 process)
- 128 Mb SDRam
- wireless(BlueTooth)
- OLED Touch Screen (low power usage-> low heat
and cheaper). InkWell would be used.
- Custom GPU (Raycer or other)
- Firewire 2
Taking out Ethernet,PCI,AGP,USB,... what would be the size of such a device? Don't say the iBook.
The size of an iPaq would be great.
Such a device would be great using Rendez-vous with bluetooth or firewire to communicate with other devices.
<img src="graemlins/oyvey.gif" border="0" alt="[No]" />
What's the killer app of the handhelds? Contacts and calendars?
With the right synchronization app, iPods and mobile phones cover that.
Multimedia?
The iPods' 5, 10 and 20 gig hard drives defeat any 16 or 32MB MP3 feature tacked onto PDAs. As for video, that is all but pointless on those small screens. Want to see a movie on the go? Get an iBook!
Wireless instant messaging?
Mobile phone with keyboard attachment.
Notes during a meeting/class?
Wait for someone to get the Tablet right. (I do not see the Tablet as a handheld).
The popularity of the PDAs was the result of a hundred and one niche uses (medical, inventory, GIS survey, toy, on and on). It wasn't the PDA but the success of the PalmOS as a widely commercially successful general operating system for a handheld .
Apple could make a NeoNewton with industry leading HWR, seamless wireless connectivity and throw in a couple of whizzy-neat iApps. But then what? They would face the exact same... um, existential crisis that the current products are facing.
"Why are we here? Where are we going?"
Screed
[ 10-31-2002: Message edited by: sCreeD ]</p>
One thing at a time.
One thing at a time."
Perhaps. But their success with the iPod and the maturation of the Computer Market show that Apple can have success with consumer gadjets linked to their 'digital hub'.
It also shows there is money to be made from the x86 market...while they flail into their 'switcher' counter offence.
I'd love for Apple to release a Cintiq style tablet. Loads of artists use Wacom. I'd like to see Apple bring the 'Cintiq' style to the masses. Not just for Photoshop stuff either...
However, I can understand the pause between product introductions. Apple have to weigh up the market and get it right.
They released the new iMac into a flat eco' and it's sales have been poor of late. As the Cube showed us...Apple can't afford to release loads of 'prototype' products and get it wrong.
I hope the next gadjet has the same 'innovative' lustre of the iPod... My guess? iPhone and iPad and iCam. Maybe...in that order.
Lemon Bon Bon
[ 10-31-2002: Message edited by: Lemon Bon Bon ]
[ 10-31-2002: Message edited by: Lemon Bon Bon ]</p>
With that said, however, this is what Apple should do. Apple should make a PDA OS for the PocketPC platform. Let OEM's fight over price with one another.
Apple needs to design an PDA OS that will work great with Macs and PCs. It would be a great win for everyone.
Mac users will have an Apple OS on the PDA.
Pocket PC manufactuers will have a REAL choice for OS.
Apple can make money through licensing and they can experiment with moving away from producing the total package.
Thoughts....
<strong>Apple should make a PDA OS for the PocketPC platform. Let OEM's fight over price with one another.
Apple needs to design an PDA OS that will work great with Macs and PCs. It would be a great win for everyone.
Mac users will have an Apple OS on the PDA.
Pocket PC manufactuers will have a REAL choice for OS.
Apple can make money through licensing and they can experiment with moving away from producing the total package.
Thoughts....</strong><hr></blockquote>
My thought is the same as it has been for years: Why didn't Apple licence Newton OS? There were people willing to buy/licence it. If they were just going to trash it, it seems like it would have been worth getting some money out of.
Anyway, they already have a PDA OS that beats what is out there...
<strong>
My thought is the same as it has been for years: Why didn't Apple licence Newton OS? There were people willing to buy/licence it. If they were just going to trash it, it seems like it would have been worth getting some money out of.
Anyway, they already have a PDA OS that beats what is out there...</strong><hr></blockquote>
Well.. a little history.
A/UX was Apples 1st venture into a 'unixish' OS and for what it was (at that time) it wasn't too bad. MacOS+Unix (well kinda).
Needless to say it was killed. Many A/UX fans were really pissed. We all pushed for Apple to open source it (what the heck they weren't gonna use it). Now looking back it's pretty clear why Apple didn't do it.
Had I been using a 'free-aux' all this time OS X would have never been given as fair a chance to develop into what we have now. A 'free-auxer' would have taken one look at X 10.0.0 and said umm thanks but no thanks... and it's users that WOULD HAVE been drawn to a 'free-aux' back then are the same folks that are helping make X even better via porting and such.
Yea it woulda been nice to have 'freeaux' but I think Apple made the right move. Now if Apple doesn't in the next year or so finally re-enter the handheld space (ie expanded iPod or iPhone or whatever) then yea it wasn't a great move but the fact is the future is so hard to read why sell off something (that out MIGHT someday need again) just for the heck of it. Better to keep it under lock and key. Unless that is you're really hard up for the cash and Apple isn't.
Dave
[ 10-31-2002: Message edited by: DaveGee ]
[ 10-31-2002: Message edited by: DaveGee ]</p>
<strong>The era of the handheld has come and gone. </strong><hr></blockquote>
Newton was the Handheld era...
<strong>Until Apple can improve its current laptops and sesktops lineup, they shouldn't venture into anything risky. It is in their best interest to focus on improving their decling market share in the computer market first.
One thing at a time.
Not really. If Apple can make more products with the iPod, it will benefit us all. Look at HP. Their printer division is subsidizing the entire PC division. You may whine about Apple's peripheral prices and outrageous RAM prices but if a PC user wants to buy an iPod or a clueless person wants to buy high priced Apple RAM, we really need to stop complaining. Why? Because they end up subsidizing our Macs. Think about it
I don't need or want another handheld. I still have a Palm IIIxe--and it got replaced by my iPod, since it is easier to sync and i was hardly ever using the features.
The future in mobile devices is wireless communication, and once they are wireles...they inevitably make sense as cell phones.