Hurricane Francis
I was just curious if any of our members living in southern Florida are taking the proper precautions for this monster? I figure Splinemodel has a couple of Kegs of beer on ice just in case it barrels through central Fla. 
Seriously, I am curious to hear what people in south Florida are thinking because here in N.O. we are a little nervous this puppy heads into the gulf and then takes aim on us.
Seriously, I am curious to hear what people in south Florida are thinking because here in N.O. we are a little nervous this puppy heads into the gulf and then takes aim on us.
Comments
Originally posted by Playmaker
I was just curious if any of our members living in southern Florida are taking the proper precautions for this monster? I figure Splinemodel has a couple of Kegs of beer on ice just in case it barrels through central Fla.
It's actually "supposed" to hit about 45 miles south of me, somewhere near Palm Beach. I also happen to live beachfront, so there's plenty of potential for it to fuck me good.
But alas, I have insurance, and a car. I'm going to stay at my house as long as I sense no danger, and if I see it being a problem, I'm going to blast it down I-95 towards Miami. You heard right. With all the scaredy-cats going north and west, there's some prime open highway to exploit. As Frances moves toward the coast at 10 to 15mph, I figure I can easily beat it going 120mph, and if I time it right I'll be able to slip past it as it pulls in on it's east-northeast trajectory.
Tomorrow I'm going to oil up my turbos, but it won't matter anyway. Frances is going to bounce off the high-pressure bubble we're currently experiencing and go back out to sea, giving us some bitchin' waves before drilling the South Carolina coast.
Originally posted by superkarate monkeydeathcar
my sister in law (and her husband) just had their first baby, now they get to go home and evacuate.
That really sucks, I dont mean to downplay the severity of these storms, as I have been through a handfull, but all you can do is take the proper precautions and hope for the best. I always think about the amount of work I have put into my home over the last 3 years and if the wife and I leave how bad things could get damaged. I always try and enjoy the hurricane partys though because no matter how much you would like to have control over whats going to happen...you have none. We are at the mercy of these beasts of nature and while its devestating to some people its an awsome and unparaleled (spelling?) site to witness. Theres nothing quite like a hurricane and the wall of horrendus wind, water, rain, and tornados that are spawned as a result. I really hope everyone makes out ok but the reality is that not everyone will be fortunate.
Originally posted by Playmaker
I dont know about that northern track this time around, as they keep saying it is largely dependant on the storm slowing its speed.
My understanding is that it largely depends on what the high pressure system above it does, whether it moves off the coast sooner rather than later. If it moves off land sooner, then the hurricane would likely travel further North, hug the edge of the high pressure area and up into Georgia/S. Carolina. Anyways, having little to do the last few days except wait for my furniture and watch UHF stations on the new TV I picked up over the weekend, North Carolina seems to have a bad track record with storms that begin with the letter F.
Originally posted by Playmaker
I dont know about that northern track this time around, as they keep saying it is largely dependant on the storm slowing its speed. I think this one is going to barrel right across the Florida tip and then shoot north into the Missippi & Alabama cost, but thats just my opinion. I dont see the jet-stream coming down far enough to be the factor needed to drag this puppy up along the eastern sea board. Never the less we can have an iChat Hurricane party wherever it hits woohoo. I just hope I get at least 1 day off of work if it heads this direction.
Pssh. I've already got Thursday and Friday off, and all we're doing now it covering stuff in plastic.
Originally posted by mrtwistor
This isn't an average storm.
I agree, I dont think most people truely understand the severity of anything 3 or higher. A 5 on the scale is rated as catostrophic...thats hard to show even on video.
Originally posted by mrtwistor
This isn't an average storm.
As long as you're not a dumbass, the severity of a storm isn't an issue. A little preparation goes a long way.
Originally posted by Splinemodel
As long as you're not a dumbass, the severity of a storm isn't an issue. A little preparation goes a long way.
A category 5 storm will pretty much tear up anything that's unfortunate enough to be in the way. Some recent storms of this strength were Linda in the eastern Pacific and Mitch in the S. Caribbean, with sustained eye-wall winds of 180mph (!!!) and gusts over 200mph,....thats the wind velocity of an F3 tornado, but lasting hours if the system's forward speed is slow.... with hurricane force winds (75mph+) extending some 150 miles from the eye. If something of this strength hit a large metropolitan area like Miami or Manhattan, it's hard to imagine the scale of casualties and destruction. It's unlikely that Frances will attain that kind of power, or even become a marginal Cat. 5 (but it's not totally impossible of course), but a 140 mph Cat. 4 will cause huge destruction as we saw with Charley. Frances is forecast to slow down as it nears the Florida Peninsula, which is a bad scenario....140 mph winds pounding the same area for hours and hours is far more destructive than the quick two-hour blast from the relatively fast moving Charley.
I see that 500,000 people have been advised/ordered to evacuate...but where? Many of Charley's evacuees fled the expected path of the storm, only to find themselves in Charley's sights as the storm suddenly veered to the Northeast.
Frances prediction...perhaps optimistic...is that it will continue its forward slightly north-of-west track and slow down its forward speed a little as it nears Florida. It will gradually turn to the westnorthwest, then the northwest and hug the Florida coast some, and weaken some as some relatively drier air from the northwest gets caught up in the rear circulation...and it will make a landfall somewhere north of Savannah, GA as a strong cat. 2 storm with 105mph sustained winds...then follow the usual decay pattern over land, and dump lots of flooding rains over GA and S. Carolina.
Lets see how inaccurate that is....!!!!
Any other predictions?
Any other predictions?
000
WTNT41 KNHC 020225
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
RECON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDCIATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
DECREASED TO 939 MB. A DROPSONDE AT 01/1904Z INDICATED WINDS OF 154
KT...OR 177 MPH...AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE HIGHEST 700 MB RECON
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 2210Z WAS 134 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 121-KT
SURFACE WIND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANCES IS BEING HELD AT
120 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERBALE
WOBBLE IN THE TRACK THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET AND AN AFRES C-130
HAVE BEEN RELEASING DROPSONDES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FRANCES. THE
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO
LOW. HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA CLEARLY INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N 75W...OR ABOUT 500 NMI NORTHWEST OF
FRANCES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AT 295 OR
EVEN 290 DEGREES MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALSO...00Z
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT THE 18Z NOGAPS AND 12Z UKMET MODELS
HAVE VERIFIED THE 00Z 500 MB RIDGE AND HEIGHTS THE BEST...WHILE THE
18Z GFS AND GFDL MODELS WERE MUCH TOO WEAK...AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO
LOW...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WILL
HAVE THE NEW GPS DROPSONDE DATA INCLUDED IN THOSE RUNS FOR THE 06Z
ADVISORY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS BEING MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF FRANCES...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO THE 00Z MODEL
TRACKS SHIFT A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD.
FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER NEAR AND WITHIN THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS CHAIN IN 24-48 HOURS. GIVEN THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW PATTERN...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
ALSO...THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...30-40 PERCENT HUMIDITY...THAT
FRANCES HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THROUGH AND INGESTING OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 60 PERCENT IN 36-60HR...
WHICH MAY ALSO HELP WITH THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 22.6N 72.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 23.5N 73.7W 120 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 24.7N 75.6W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 25.8N 77.3W 125 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 26.6N 78.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 28.0N 81.0W 105 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 06/0000Z 30.0N 83.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z 33.5N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND
Now that's preparation.
Originally posted by Splinemodel
You're running around like a chicken with its head cut off again. I live right on the "projected" path, and I'm not worried. There are so many possibilities, and the computer models are pure conjecture. By the end of Thursday, I'll have a good idea what I need to do, but I've got a bunch of cases in the fridge and some friends coming down for the weekend because I'm betting that it's going to be uneventful.
Now that's preparation.
So your most current prediction is for (the eye of) Frances to miss you by at least 70 miles? For your sake I do hope so!
I am predicting that its going to tear through southern Fla about 75 miles north of Miami and then re enter the gulf where it will have a short period to regain a bit of its strength before slamming into the mississippi/alabama gulf coast.
Originally posted by Splinemodel
You're running around like a chicken with its head cut off again. I live right on the "projected" path, and I'm not worried. There are so many possibilities, and the computer models are pure conjecture. By the end of Thursday, I'll have a good idea what I need to do, but I've got a bunch of cases in the fridge and some friends coming down for the weekend because I'm betting that it's going to be uneventful.
Now that's preparation.
Don't be an idiot. I lived 18 years of my life in hurricane country, this is one for the record books, ok?
You won't be allowed to go south since they will likely reverse the highway. The hurricane doesn't just last for the 4 hours it takes to "pass" by. You have the leading and trailing tropical storm areas which are a bitch to drive in. I know, I have escaped two or three hurricanes by going north on 95.
You have no idea what tree may or may not punch itself through your wall, so take precautions and if you can leave, leave.
kidding....be safe, stay dry
Dude, don't be an idiot. It's going to be 36 hours of sheer hell.
Originally posted by Splinemodel
I live right on the "projected" path, and I'm not worried.
For someone who wears girls shirts, you've got big balls.
Originally posted by Common Man
Rush's place is in danger.
He's obviously had the place reinforced earlier to deal with all of his hot air.