It's extremely simple why this is a problem for Apple - it's all down to the following issues:
1. There are only ever three or four configurations of professional Macs and so it is very evident how fast they are to anyone in the market for a Mac. If you look at Dell as a good example of a PC vendor they have a vast range of systems available - anything from 1.8GHz to 3.04GHz at the moment, many steps in between and many variants of models. So it just isn't as big a deal what the top-end system is - it's almost just one of many.
2. Most Mac users are graphics or multimedia creators and will get a substantial (real or perceived) benefit from having a significantly faster system. With PCs the proportion is the other way around and most users will be perfectly happy with a 1.8GHz system knowing that it will be way faster than they need to run Office or browse the web.
3. This is the biggest one of all - Apple shoot themselves in the foot here by only releasing new professional systems two or three times a year with a big razzmattaz - there's continual movement in the introduction of new PC systems from all the PC vendors and so people have settled down and just buy whatever meets their needs when they need a new system, without any big deal about waiting for the "next big step up".
All the above is not even complex psychology - Apple would do themselves a big favour if they could contrive to do more regular speed bumps (even if they are relatively smaller ones) and muddy up the lineup of systems a lot more than they do at present.
Having said all of that, clearly the 970 will represent a quantum leap forward (hopefully) and so people will be more likely to hold off if they know it is coming. But this problem is magnified by the culture that exists as a result of my three points above.
But there is even a further point to make about this - from personal experience with clients and colleagues I know that the longer that time goes on with the big disparity in performance there is between PCs and Macs, the more that people are inclined to jump ship. Not just because they themselves need more performance today, but because they believe that the fact that other people are becoming dissatisfied with the current disparity will cause them to jump ship - and no-one wants to get stuck on a sinking ship.
There's a real Macintosh credibility problem with professional users at the moment and I personally think Apple would gain far more in terms of retaining customers to the platform by pre-announcing the 970 than they would lose in terms of lost sales of current professional level Macs.
I look forward to hearing other views on this - this is an important issue in my view.
<strong>There's a real Macintosh credibility problem with professional users at the moment and I personally think Apple would gain far more in terms of retaining customers to the platform by pre-announcing the 970 than they would lose in terms of lost sales of current professional level Macs.
I look forward to hearing other views on this - this is an important issue in my view.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Aerial, I agree with you here. When Apple told the world they were abandoning CISC and going to PowerPC, the world rejoiced (okay, maybe not really) because at the time the '040 had been late and was *perceived* to be sub-standard to the 486. Here we are 10 years later and now we are at the G4 and it is *factually* substandard (in many tasks, but, not all). I believe that if Apple announced that "yes, we are going to use the 970 in the future" that it might hurt sales some, but, I believe the major purchasers will continue to buy what they need at the current time.
It's great for each of us here at AppleInsider to say I would hold off, but, the fact of the matter is that we are not the mac market, but, a very small percentage of it.
I believe that announcing the 970 would help Apple in the long run. At the same time, I spoke with an old friend last week who has been for many years staunchly anti-Mac. He told me, "Brian, I switched, and I got 6 people at NOAA to switch also." They all bought Powerbooks and iBooks. He actually wanted to sell his BRAND-NEW 1Ghz powerbook and get a 400Mhz Gen-1 TiBook because he said he didn't need all of the 1Ghz power. He had convinced the others to buy ibooks. Anyhow, the moral is that they all switched (these are all sci-tech users who use these machines as clients to large computing clusters) and didn't care about processor speed or had even heard of the 970. They cared solely about usability and the OS.
Yep, that's about it in a nutshell. Only a fraction of the users actually put the processor to its full potential. I admit that it would be nice to have the G4 for Photoshop (still have a G3 Pismo), but what works...works. The key part of your statement is that they bought NOTEBOOKS -- Apple is indeed the notebook king of the market right now. It doesn't matter that Dell offers a 14" screen-notebook with a PIV (1.5 GHz I think) for 700 bucks, but Apple does it up best -- now even better with the Aluminum-cased models that are selling like gourmet 10/piece hotcakes. It would be great to see Apple go ahead and put a high-level CPU inside the XServe, though -- a Power4. Or at least give the option for one (don't obligate people into buying the expensive equipment, but if they want the performance, give it to them).
We'll see the 970 in the fall I think, if we see it. But I don't see how we wouldn't -- altivec compatible, a smaller Power4. It'll be in a Mac before year's end. Until then, a fast G4 (multi or single proc.) just does darn well for the majority of people's workload.
Imagine Ford promised that in 4 months it would sell a truck with 5% more horsepower and 5% better fuel economy at the same price as current models. How would that effect current sales?
Now imagine Ford promised that in 4 months it would sell a truck with 100% more horsepower and 100% better fuel economy at the same price as current models. Would that not crush existing sales.
The current market for Window's machines is like the former, but the wait for the 970 is like the latter.
I believe that pre-announcing or rather some kind of a roadmap won't kill sales because:
a) If i need to purchase a computer now (like it happened in our case because a new person was hired in graphics dep.) i will get one regardless of upcoming new models.
b) Rumors are even worse than actual roadmap, because everyone knows that something is comming so people wait anyways.
c) I bought 1ghz tibook when they came out, if i would know that 17" was on a horizon maybe i would go for 17 (i don't think so, but maybe..), how is that killing sales?
By knowing what's comming, to some degree of course, i don't expect apple to release complete specs of their future systems, but at least something like : G4 will reach 1.8 ghz by the year end or there will be an introduction of new mac model based on IBM's 970 cpu, sometime in the middle of 2003, will help me make an decission on what to buy.
Like someone said earlier, those who can wait will wait anyway.
But it would be a beneficial to a hardware company to publish a roadmap, this would stop or at least limit all that BS about lack of well defined future plans.
Don't you think that apple would actually increase sales as it would gain an image of a company with a future and sence of stability?
It would also impact the price of their stock.
Only reason in my opinion and i'm sure others think just like that, is that apple really doesn't have well defined future plans.
<strong>Imagine Ford promised that in 4 months it would sell a truck with 5% more horsepower and 5% better fuel economy at the same price as current models. How would that effect current sales?
Now imagine Ford promised that in 4 months it would sell a truck with 100% more horsepower and 100% better fuel economy at the same price as current models. Would that not crush existing sales.
The current market for Window's machines is like the former, but the wait for the 970 is like the latter.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Quite - my argument exactly. By releasing new systems only occasionally and with relatively significant increments in speed/functionality, Apple are creating a lot of their problems. Proceeding more along the PC model with a continual drip feed of new models and pre-announcement (ala Intel) of new upcoming processors (to smooth out the hype effect and quieten the rumour sites) would make it less attractive to hold off for the "next big thing".
Thats what you say now. But when the new 970 is announced there will be a second-wave of waiters... are you one of them? <hr></blockquote>
Since this is directly aimed at me, I'll respond.
I just set up a dual 1.25G4 here at work. Its fast. But I don't feel like it is a major step ahead of either my Frankensteined G4/500 at home or the G4/500 I use at work. The machine seems evolutionarily fast...but it is sweet.
The big question is whether people would buy when the KNOW something better is a few months off. Right now, I THINK something will be available in the fall. This mere thought is enough to make me get by with my venerable machine until then. But, its not only me.
Why do you think car dealers have 'end of the model year clearances?' If they didn't would they move a single F'n car? I dont think so.
I have an M3, so I frequent Bimmer boards to discuss mods and look at cars. One of the hot topics lately has been the upcoming face lift for the 3 series coupe. We are not talking about a redesign of the car, just the front bumper and fascia (and a tiny change to the hood). There are no big gains in power, no earth-shattering features, just a new nose. But, people are waiting. Some have even cancelled their orders for the current coupe so that they will have the latest when it arrives.
This mentality carries over to Macs as well.
I'll admit, there are people on AI who are always waiting for the next thing. But, many of these people are in HighSchool and have neither the means or intentions of buying a new computer. I have both, but I'm not going to spend that kind of money on a system which I feel is near the end of its life.
Besides, look at the recent developments...Workstation class cards in the machines, buy-outs of big name Pro-SW, and all the 970/G5 talk. Apple is making a move up market. If this is your area and you can stand the wait, it seems crazy not to hold off just a few more months.
Thing is that most (98%*) people don't read news.com , theRegister.co.uk , much less Macosrumors.com , Macrumors.com , appleinsider.com , thinksecret.com , or Macnn.com . How will they know what is coming out in a week, month or year? I don't think CNN or foxnews covers Mac rumors (yet).
Yes, but many more people do read MacAddict, Home, World, etc. We have copies of each floating around here constantly. If Apple were to preannounce, surely it would be picked up by one of these. Once its in there, more PowerMac buyers will know about it.
Anyone remember Job's appearance on 'Money Line with Lou Dobbs?' SJ is sitting there craddling the new iMac, a machine like no one had seen before. And Dobbs main question was 'when can we expect the G5?'
IMO, once Apple says that they are making a 970/G5 in x months, it will be that long until they sell another machine.
<strong> IMO, once Apple says that they are making a 970/G5 in x months, it will be that long until they sell another machine.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Again, you assume everybody is a consumer at home looking for the best deal for their hard earned cash. You ignore people like me that when their budget allows and they need 4 new machines for some freelancers starting in a week they will get them ASAP regardless of what is coming out in a month or 2.
Your right, I'm talking about a certain segment of the market. But most people I know who buy Power Macs have their ears to the ground to some extent and know what is coming up.
As I said in a previous post, we just got a dual 1.25 G4 here at work. We needed it now. So, there will be a portion of the market that will buy regardless of what is offered ( I was exaggerating when I said Apple wouldn't sell another Mac).
That being said, if Apple had announced the 970 would be available in 3 months, we may have taken another route as a stop gap and bought the new rig when it was available.
An announcement is more than rumors. The title of the thread might be a bit strong by saying 'suicide', but an announcement would hurt sales. An official announcement would get press of some sort and anyone who read about it would be less inclined to pay full price for something that was on its way out. This includes many pro users. If the rumors about the 970 are true, it will be a performer aimed at pro markets.
<strong>Imagine Ford promised that in 4 months it would sell a truck with 5% more horsepower and 5% better fuel economy at the same price as current models. How would that effect current sales?
Now imagine Ford promised that in 4 months it would sell a truck with 100% more horsepower and 100% better fuel economy at the same price as current models. Would that not crush existing sales.
The current market for Window's machines is like the former, but the wait for the 970 is like the latter.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Well, you don't follow the automobile industry then. They do this every year. Frankfurt, Paris, Detroit, and New York auto shows feature cars that manufacturers will not be bringing for up to two years.
The Audi RS6, (upcoming V-10) BMW M5, etc. have all been announced long before they will ever be handed over to eager owners.
Even the "consumer" companies pre-announce cars, Dodge has previewed new neons that will be quite the cheap little power rockets coming in another year. The Subaru WRX-sti will be out in a year's time, etc.
These are all cars with SUBSTANTIAL performance gains (now that we are in the midst of a horsepower war). Companies have to pre-announce to not look as though they are falling behind.
Auto companies are anxious to display cars that are 1-5 years away.
Heh, people around here rely on me to tell them what model to get. I never tell them about the rumors. I just want them to get the best thing they can afford at the time. If something comes out in a week I would just shrug my shoulders and say, "Who'd a thunk it?"
The main reason that car manufacturers pre-announce their cars is to stop people buying a competitor's product. They also take a bunch of pre-orders (with deposits). Apple could and should take the same approach in my view, and over a far longer period than they have done historically.
The discussion is moot since Apple WILL ABSOLUTELY NOT pre-announce 970's for a number of reasons.
1) Actually there are still some PowerMac sales and it would kill them stone dead.
2) Apple is not an ordinary computer company. In some respacts Steve treats it more like a film company that is only as good as its last production (The Powerbooks at the moment, which are fine and dandy). Apple also garners far greater interest and column inches than its relative size merits. This means that the 'news flow' has to be very carefully controlled and now is simply not the time to get the entire world and its dog in a tiz over a product that may or may not ship on a particular date.
Can you imagine the feeding frenzy and demand for information from the Apple acolytes (that's us) and trade press if such an announcment were made? It would totally undermine any PR efforts between then and now concerning, ooh...iMac updates, iPod updates, new screens, iPad(?), iLife, Airport Totally-Out-There etc.
3) Its a 'hostage to fortune' that Steve cannot possibly commit to at this time.
Various information suggest that the not only 970 is in the pipline but also support for substantially better 3d cards and audio hardware.
I am about to get a dual 867 for work but I am stalling it in the hope for something better. If I was absolutly sure that the new line was the same thing at a higher clock rate I would not bother abit above or below the GHz lune really does not matter for Office and such. But the hope for redisigened tower, quiter than the current ones and with other nifty features make me wait.
Sure Apple can preannounce the 970 and at the same time drop the prices of the current tower by a 20% rebate or so. But only if the 970 is soon around.
If on the other hand Apple would introduce speed bumped G4 they really can not preannounce the 970 can they?
The preanouncement of the 970 will tell the customer two things.
1. We have found a way to get out of the G4 trouble
(and have som shining new boxes crammed full with good stuff heading your way later)
2. What we can sell you now and up to xxx is outdated as we speak :eek:
Apple sure need to show that they are leaving the G4 or the joke will be that it should be named G1/4 as it runns at 1/4 the clock speed of the "competition", the question is how high price they are willing to pay it.
<strong>I want to know why everyone believes that pre-announcing the 970 would kill the existing PowerMac sales. Empirically, yes, it makes perfect sense.</strong><hr></blockquote>
I think the user base has changed quite significantly since 1993/94 when the PowerPC was "coming". Back then the user base was distinctly "pro" and to a large extent buy new, rather than replacement kit. They didn't care what was coming in six months, because theyd probably be buying more kit then anyway.
Now you've got a fair amount of casual and home users in the mix, who do care. The pro users are upgrading less often, because of the economic climate, and because they just don't need it.
Although I don't think the pro users are going to rush to buy 970s either, not if they're X-only, but that's another story.
Comments
1. There are only ever three or four configurations of professional Macs and so it is very evident how fast they are to anyone in the market for a Mac. If you look at Dell as a good example of a PC vendor they have a vast range of systems available - anything from 1.8GHz to 3.04GHz at the moment, many steps in between and many variants of models. So it just isn't as big a deal what the top-end system is - it's almost just one of many.
2. Most Mac users are graphics or multimedia creators and will get a substantial (real or perceived) benefit from having a significantly faster system. With PCs the proportion is the other way around and most users will be perfectly happy with a 1.8GHz system knowing that it will be way faster than they need to run Office or browse the web.
3. This is the biggest one of all - Apple shoot themselves in the foot here by only releasing new professional systems two or three times a year with a big razzmattaz - there's continual movement in the introduction of new PC systems from all the PC vendors and so people have settled down and just buy whatever meets their needs when they need a new system, without any big deal about waiting for the "next big step up".
All the above is not even complex psychology - Apple would do themselves a big favour if they could contrive to do more regular speed bumps (even if they are relatively smaller ones) and muddy up the lineup of systems a lot more than they do at present.
Having said all of that, clearly the 970 will represent a quantum leap forward (hopefully) and so people will be more likely to hold off if they know it is coming. But this problem is magnified by the culture that exists as a result of my three points above.
But there is even a further point to make about this - from personal experience with clients and colleagues I know that the longer that time goes on with the big disparity in performance there is between PCs and Macs, the more that people are inclined to jump ship. Not just because they themselves need more performance today, but because they believe that the fact that other people are becoming dissatisfied with the current disparity will cause them to jump ship - and no-one wants to get stuck on a sinking ship.
There's a real Macintosh credibility problem with professional users at the moment and I personally think Apple would gain far more in terms of retaining customers to the platform by pre-announcing the 970 than they would lose in terms of lost sales of current professional level Macs.
I look forward to hearing other views on this - this is an important issue in my view.
[ 01-21-2003: Message edited by: Aerial ]</p>
<strong>There's a real Macintosh credibility problem with professional users at the moment and I personally think Apple would gain far more in terms of retaining customers to the platform by pre-announcing the 970 than they would lose in terms of lost sales of current professional level Macs.
I look forward to hearing other views on this - this is an important issue in my view.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Aerial, I agree with you here. When Apple told the world they were abandoning CISC and going to PowerPC, the world rejoiced (okay, maybe not really) because at the time the '040 had been late and was *perceived* to be sub-standard to the 486. Here we are 10 years later and now we are at the G4 and it is *factually* substandard (in many tasks, but, not all). I believe that if Apple announced that "yes, we are going to use the 970 in the future" that it might hurt sales some, but, I believe the major purchasers will continue to buy what they need at the current time.
It's great for each of us here at AppleInsider to say I would hold off, but, the fact of the matter is that we are not the mac market, but, a very small percentage of it.
I believe that announcing the 970 would help Apple in the long run. At the same time, I spoke with an old friend last week who has been for many years staunchly anti-Mac. He told me, "Brian, I switched, and I got 6 people at NOAA to switch also." They all bought Powerbooks and iBooks. He actually wanted to sell his BRAND-NEW 1Ghz powerbook and get a 400Mhz Gen-1 TiBook because he said he didn't need all of the 1Ghz power. He had convinced the others to buy ibooks. Anyhow, the moral is that they all switched (these are all sci-tech users who use these machines as clients to large computing clusters) and didn't care about processor speed or had even heard of the 970. They cared solely about usability and the OS.
We'll see the 970 in the fall I think, if we see it. But I don't see how we wouldn't -- altivec compatible, a smaller Power4. It'll be in a Mac before year's end. Until then, a fast G4 (multi or single proc.) just does darn well for the majority of people's workload.
Now imagine Ford promised that in 4 months it would sell a truck with 100% more horsepower and 100% better fuel economy at the same price as current models. Would that not crush existing sales.
The current market for Window's machines is like the former, but the wait for the 970 is like the latter.
a) If i need to purchase a computer now (like it happened in our case because a new person was hired in graphics dep.) i will get one regardless of upcoming new models.
b) Rumors are even worse than actual roadmap, because everyone knows that something is comming so people wait anyways.
c) I bought 1ghz tibook when they came out, if i would know that 17" was on a horizon maybe i would go for 17 (i don't think so, but maybe..), how is that killing sales?
By knowing what's comming, to some degree of course, i don't expect apple to release complete specs of their future systems, but at least something like : G4 will reach 1.8 ghz by the year end or there will be an introduction of new mac model based on IBM's 970 cpu, sometime in the middle of 2003, will help me make an decission on what to buy.
Like someone said earlier, those who can wait will wait anyway.
But it would be a beneficial to a hardware company to publish a roadmap, this would stop or at least limit all that BS about lack of well defined future plans.
Don't you think that apple would actually increase sales as it would gain an image of a company with a future and sence of stability?
It would also impact the price of their stock.
Only reason in my opinion and i'm sure others think just like that, is that apple really doesn't have well defined future plans.
my $0.02 anyway..
[ 01-22-2003: Message edited by: piwozniak ]</p>
<strong>Imagine Ford promised that in 4 months it would sell a truck with 5% more horsepower and 5% better fuel economy at the same price as current models. How would that effect current sales?
Now imagine Ford promised that in 4 months it would sell a truck with 100% more horsepower and 100% better fuel economy at the same price as current models. Would that not crush existing sales.
The current market for Window's machines is like the former, but the wait for the 970 is like the latter.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Quite - my argument exactly. By releasing new systems only occasionally and with relatively significant increments in speed/functionality, Apple are creating a lot of their problems. Proceeding more along the PC model with a continual drip feed of new models and pre-announcement (ala Intel) of new upcoming processors (to smooth out the hype effect and quieten the rumour sites) would make it less attractive to hold off for the "next big thing".
[ 01-22-2003: Message edited by: Aerial ]</p>
When you think about this... the whole pre-announcing or not is irrelevant to sales as long as users stay with macs.
There are only 2 scenarios:
1. people waiting for the next big thing.
- apple looses 'current' sales, but gains $$ back as soon as new models are released, so it all balances in the end.
2. people buying new macs at steady rate.
- sales stay at equal level. same result as #1. in the end.
(assuming that price for new machines will be the same as current ones)
So if power mac sales are down 25% what does that mean?
Either crowd is waiting for new CPU, and pre announcing won't change a thing here.
Or they switching to something else
,in this case pre announcing will only help apple from loosing customers to PCs or whatever systems they buy instead of apples.
:-)
Thats what you say now. But when the new 970 is announced there will be a second-wave of waiters... are you one of them? <hr></blockquote>
Since this is directly aimed at me, I'll respond.
I just set up a dual 1.25G4 here at work. Its fast. But I don't feel like it is a major step ahead of either my Frankensteined G4/500 at home or the G4/500 I use at work. The machine seems evolutionarily fast...but it is sweet.
The big question is whether people would buy when the KNOW something better is a few months off. Right now, I THINK something will be available in the fall. This mere thought is enough to make me get by with my venerable machine until then. But, its not only me.
Why do you think car dealers have 'end of the model year clearances?' If they didn't would they move a single F'n car? I dont think so.
I have an M3, so I frequent Bimmer boards to discuss mods and look at cars. One of the hot topics lately has been the upcoming face lift for the 3 series coupe. We are not talking about a redesign of the car, just the front bumper and fascia (and a tiny change to the hood). There are no big gains in power, no earth-shattering features, just a new nose. But, people are waiting. Some have even cancelled their orders for the current coupe so that they will have the latest when it arrives.
This mentality carries over to Macs as well.
I'll admit, there are people on AI who are always waiting for the next thing. But, many of these people are in HighSchool and have neither the means or intentions of buying a new computer. I have both, but I'm not going to spend that kind of money on a system which I feel is near the end of its life.
Besides, look at the recent developments...Workstation class cards in the machines, buy-outs of big name Pro-SW, and all the 970/G5 talk. Apple is making a move up market. If this is your area and you can stand the wait, it seems crazy not to hold off just a few more months.
Or are you just mad that you bent your wookie?
* pulled out of my ass but is a good guesstimate
Anyone remember Job's appearance on 'Money Line with Lou Dobbs?' SJ is sitting there craddling the new iMac, a machine like no one had seen before. And Dobbs main question was 'when can we expect the G5?'
IMO, once Apple says that they are making a 970/G5 in x months, it will be that long until they sell another machine.
<strong> IMO, once Apple says that they are making a 970/G5 in x months, it will be that long until they sell another machine.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Again, you assume everybody is a consumer at home looking for the best deal for their hard earned cash. You ignore people like me that when their budget allows and they need 4 new machines for some freelancers starting in a week they will get them ASAP regardless of what is coming out in a month or 2.
As I said in a previous post, we just got a dual 1.25 G4 here at work. We needed it now. So, there will be a portion of the market that will buy regardless of what is offered ( I was exaggerating when I said Apple wouldn't sell another Mac).
That being said, if Apple had announced the 970 would be available in 3 months, we may have taken another route as a stop gap and bought the new rig when it was available.
An announcement is more than rumors. The title of the thread might be a bit strong by saying 'suicide', but an announcement would hurt sales. An official announcement would get press of some sort and anyone who read about it would be less inclined to pay full price for something that was on its way out. This includes many pro users. If the rumors about the 970 are true, it will be a performer aimed at pro markets.
...IMO
[ 01-22-2003: Message edited by: Keda ]</p>
<strong>Imagine Ford promised that in 4 months it would sell a truck with 5% more horsepower and 5% better fuel economy at the same price as current models. How would that effect current sales?
Now imagine Ford promised that in 4 months it would sell a truck with 100% more horsepower and 100% better fuel economy at the same price as current models. Would that not crush existing sales.
The current market for Window's machines is like the former, but the wait for the 970 is like the latter.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Well, you don't follow the automobile industry then. They do this every year. Frankfurt, Paris, Detroit, and New York auto shows feature cars that manufacturers will not be bringing for up to two years.
The Audi RS6, (upcoming V-10) BMW M5, etc. have all been announced long before they will ever be handed over to eager owners.
Even the "consumer" companies pre-announce cars, Dodge has previewed new neons that will be quite the cheap little power rockets coming in another year. The Subaru WRX-sti will be out in a year's time, etc.
These are all cars with SUBSTANTIAL performance gains (now that we are in the midst of a horsepower war). Companies have to pre-announce to not look as though they are falling behind.
Auto companies are anxious to display cars that are 1-5 years away.
[ 01-22-2003: Message edited by: atomicham ]</p>
[ 01-22-2003: Message edited by: atomicham ]</p>
There is no existing sales to crush!
The only thing that could happen is some people would put off buying a new PC or i/eMac until the PM G5 arrives.
Which is a good thing.
Barto
1) Actually there are still some PowerMac sales and it would kill them stone dead.
2) Apple is not an ordinary computer company. In some respacts Steve treats it more like a film company that is only as good as its last production (The Powerbooks at the moment, which are fine and dandy). Apple also garners far greater interest and column inches than its relative size merits. This means that the 'news flow' has to be very carefully controlled and now is simply not the time to get the entire world and its dog in a tiz over a product that may or may not ship on a particular date.
Can you imagine the feeding frenzy and demand for information from the Apple acolytes (that's us) and trade press if such an announcment were made? It would totally undermine any PR efforts between then and now concerning, ooh...iMac updates, iPod updates, new screens, iPad(?), iLife, Airport Totally-Out-There etc.
3) Its a 'hostage to fortune' that Steve cannot possibly commit to at this time.
Various information suggest that the not only 970 is in the pipline but also support for substantially better 3d cards and audio hardware.
I am about to get a dual 867 for work but I am stalling it in the hope for something better. If I was absolutly sure that the new line was the same thing at a higher clock rate I would not bother abit above or below the GHz lune really does not matter for Office and such. But the hope for redisigened tower, quiter than the current ones and with other nifty features make me wait.
Sure Apple can preannounce the 970 and at the same time drop the prices of the current tower by a 20% rebate or so. But only if the 970 is soon around.
If on the other hand Apple would introduce speed bumped G4 they really can not preannounce the 970 can they?
The preanouncement of the 970 will tell the customer two things.
1. We have found a way to get out of the G4 trouble
2. What we can sell you now and up to xxx is outdated as we speak :eek:
Apple sure need to show that they are leaving the G4 or the joke will be that it should be named G1/4 as it runns at 1/4 the clock speed of the "competition", the question is how high price they are willing to pay it.
<strong>I want to know why everyone believes that pre-announcing the 970 would kill the existing PowerMac sales. Empirically, yes, it makes perfect sense.</strong><hr></blockquote>
I think the user base has changed quite significantly since 1993/94 when the PowerPC was "coming". Back then the user base was distinctly "pro" and to a large extent buy new, rather than replacement kit. They didn't care what was coming in six months, because theyd probably be buying more kit then anyway.
Now you've got a fair amount of casual and home users in the mix, who do care. The pro users are upgrading less often, because of the economic climate, and because they just don't need it.
Although I don't think the pro users are going to rush to buy 970s either, not if they're X-only, but that's another story.