Apple "must" come out with either a Sky-pod or vid-pod ASAP!!!
While I think Apple will continue to dominate the new digital music revolution with its existing line of ipods, I think Apple better come out with new reasons to utilize the huge harge drives in the ipods.
With each year the size of the HD's will grow larger and well as larger flash-based memory in ipod-shuffle and this will continue to the point that HD size will become meaningless because it is far larger then one can possibly fill with music alone (ipod-photo is a step in the right direction).
Once storage size becomes so large that people will only buy the cheaper (less profitable) models since the larger and more expensive ones become redundant.This is why Apple will need to either bring out a video-ipod that would easily fill those huge HD's mpeg4-videos or bring out a convergence device that has XM built in so people can listen to xm radio as well as record it (a radio version of Tivo of sorts).
While I have no doubt that Apple will continue to dominate the industry and control the majority of market share for mp3-like players, but if they don't come out with something like a vid-pod or sky-pod most consumers will start buying only the cheaper mini-ipod or super-cheap ipod-shuffle models instead.
With each year the size of the HD's will grow larger and well as larger flash-based memory in ipod-shuffle and this will continue to the point that HD size will become meaningless because it is far larger then one can possibly fill with music alone (ipod-photo is a step in the right direction).
Once storage size becomes so large that people will only buy the cheaper (less profitable) models since the larger and more expensive ones become redundant.This is why Apple will need to either bring out a video-ipod that would easily fill those huge HD's mpeg4-videos or bring out a convergence device that has XM built in so people can listen to xm radio as well as record it (a radio version of Tivo of sorts).
While I have no doubt that Apple will continue to dominate the industry and control the majority of market share for mp3-like players, but if they don't come out with something like a vid-pod or sky-pod most consumers will start buying only the cheaper mini-ipod or super-cheap ipod-shuffle models instead.
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Right now, for music, photos and video, 60GB would be barely adequate. Video chews up space.
Down the line, sure, I can imagine an iPod that grabs iDVD projects and offers text versions of the menus on screen, and maybe a small version of the picture you used to identify one of the chapters, and play back the movies through the dock connector to an HDTV. Maybe it could play the video for a song you bought from the iTMS while the tune is playing, and overlay the current menu and options when the controls are touched, Dashboard-style. The possibilities are many.
But a lot of things have to happen first. Substantially bigger hard drives are just one of those things. Once the capacities that currently appear in desktop drives that cost as much as iPods have been shrunk down to iPod size, Apple can start considering these possibilities seriously.
There's a lot to be said for waiting until you can do it right. Just because there's something somewhere that plays video now doesn't mean that Apple has to follow suit. Especially not since the market share of iPod competitors is dwindling, and the iPod's is growing rapidly.
The extra storage in the iPods is great for backups, portable file storage, etc.
People were *screaming* for them to bring out an iPod with at *least* photo capability... what's the reaction? "Oh, gee, that's kind of useless." *ding ding ding*
The genius of the iPod is less that it is a great music player, in that it is a simple file storage unit that also *happens* to play music that *happens* to have a great UI in iTunes, which *happens* to integrate with the most popular online music store.
It's not the player, it's the infrastructure. Without that, not worth it. And the video infrastructure isn't going to be possible until the MPEG-4 conversion completes. Give it a year.
Unless Apple creates new features for the ipod it will become a low priced and low profit commodity which the low-end PC market has become.
To say the ipod doesn't need to do anything other then play music and be used as a back-up device is like saying that computers are only good for word-processing and accounting like many thought 20 years ago.
If you strictly want the largest feature list for your money, you'll do best to shop elsewhere... and you'll end up with something that will ultimately do less for you. Funny that.
Originally posted by Kickaha
The iPod is not the general purpose device you're trying to make it. It is a consumer device that does a small number of things, and does them well, and relies on a greater infrastructure to do so. It's an appliance like a VCR, not a computer.
If you strictly want the largest feature list for your money, you'll do best to shop elsewhere... and you'll end up with something that will ultimately do less for you. Funny that.
If the ipod is to remain only an appliance then the ipod will become a low priced and low profit commodity and Apple's stock will suffer because the hype will not be able to be sustained. The pc has become an appliance as well and becuase of this profits and have been down for most of the PC-makers for years now.
Apple can either continue to innovate the ipod which will keep the hype going as well as giving the consumer a reason to pay a premium for a "New and improved" ipod. The other way Apple can keep the music thing profitable is to find a way to make the itunes store extremely profitable (which it currently is not).
Apple could take the Bic-razor approch where they sell the Razor (ipod) for a very-little-to-no-profit and make their money selling replacement blades (music on itunes store).
All I know is that you can't play today's game on yesterdays score and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Originally posted by johnsocal
The thing that has kept the computer market going is that people are always finding new uses for faster processors and larger HD's that make their current setup obsolete. The one thing that is hurting the PC industry is a lack of a killer-app that would require a high-end pc since most of the popular apps and features can usually be found on a cheap pc.
Yes, and the killer app for video isn't really feasible yet, and the hardware isn't up to the task yet.
Once the processors are fast enough, and the hard drives large enough, and the content common and available enough, and the bandwidth ample enough, etc., Apple can do something. When they do, it won't just be a "video iPod." It'll have the sort of services and app support that Kickaha is talking about, just like the iPod music has now.
Unless Apple creates new features for the ipod it will become a low priced and low profit commodity which the low-end PC market has become.
But if they stuff the iPod full of features that there's no support or demand for, they'll just clutter it up and make it less functional and less desirable.
Think about the fact that most of the players in the crowded field that has less than 1/10th of the iPod's market share—and shrinking—have more features than the iPod does. But the iPod has the best implementation of the features people want that the hardware can currently support.
There's no indication that Apple will rest on their laurels, either. They did just roll out the iPod photo recently, and as Kickaha points out, it's not the runaway success that the audio iPod is. But it does prove that Apple is actively interested in keeping the iPod above the commodity fray.
To say the ipod doesn't need to do anything other then play music and be used as a back-up device is like saying that computers are only good for word-processing and accounting like many thought 20 years ago.
20 years ago, that's what they were good for. Anyone attempting to edit video on an original Mac was doomed to disappointment. You can't implement features that the hardware can't support, and you shouldn't implement features that the market doesn't demand. You can look 20 years forward all you want, but for products shipping today, you have to look at what you can offer today that people want to do today.
Originally posted by johnsocal
If the ipod is to remain only an appliance then it will become a low priced and low pofit product and apple's stock will suffer because the hype will not be able to be sustained. The pc has become an appliance as well and becuase of this profits and have been down for most of the PC-makers for years now.
Sorry, I disagree. The success of the iPod isn't *just* the device, it's the device + iTunes + iTMS. The PC can, in a pinch, stand very much on its own, although it is supported by the infrastructure of the internet.
You simply can't compare the iPod to a PC, you have to compare it to other consumer electronics such as the cable box, which requires an extensive infrastructure, all of which is owned by or at least controlled by one company. In this case though, the device is driving the infrastructure, instead of the other way around.
Apple can either continue to innovate the ipod which will keep the hype going as well as giving the consumer a reason to pay a premium for a "New and improved" ipod. The other way Apple can keep the music thing profitable is to find a way to make the itunes store extremely profitable (which it currently is not).
Define 'extremely', and compare against the actual financials.
Apple could take the Bic-razor approch where you sell the Razor (ipod) for a very-little-to-no-profit and make their money selling replacement blades (music on itunes store).
All I know is that you can't play today's game on yesterdays score and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Absolutely, and you can't compare apples and oranges either - the iPod is not a PC, nor any other class of general purpose device.
The iPod would never have succeeded without iTunes, and when did it really take off? When iTMS was launched. The iPod is a peripheral, and needs a lot of supporting tech behind it to make it the great little gadget it is.
If it were *just* the device and feature set, then any ol' MP3 player with the most widgets tacked on would win. Not the case, obviously.
A video-oriented device with the same lack of massive back-end support would similarly go *thud*... as the current video enabled players are soundly doing. No one *cares* if it can play video, if they have to figure out how to get the video *they* care about on it, in the right format, and so on.
Originally posted by Kickaha
The PC can, in a pinch, stand very much on its own, although it is supported by the infrastructure of the internet.
s/supported/hopelessly compromised/g
Itunes store "barely" made a profit last quarter so I would define "extremely profitable" as being that the profits from the itunes-store exceed the profits generated on the sales of actual ipod hardware. Once Apple gets itunes-store extremely profitable
Of course Ipods and pcs are like apples and oranges but both require "innovation" (like all products) to create new features that people want to create demand and profits in the future.
Originally posted by timmy o'tool
Apple likes to wait until the technology, infrastructure, and market is in place before coming out with new products. Will the ipod continue to evolve? Yes, of course. Video players just don't have the tech, infrastructure, and market yet, so apple will not move ahead. It may never come and in that case apple will never make said product. As for XM radio, I don't know. I personally don't want to pay a monthly bill to hear music that I may of may not like when I have 10,000 songs at my figure tips that I do like. That?s just my view though.
I agree, and ofter people want new features or products but either the infrastructure is not ready or the price is higher then the majority of people are willing to pay at the time. Because of these things "affordable" innovation can stagnate and profits decline as a direct result until all the pieces in the puzzle become available and someone is smart enough to put it together quickly and be the first to capitalize on it and reap the largest amount of profit per unit until either others catch up, the market-place shifts, or the product stagnates and becomes a commodity.
This is why most companies have "hit or miss" products and often it can be many years until "all the stars are alligned" again for them to have a wildly succesful product that temporarily (and legally) monopolizes a particular industry.
Originally posted by johnsocal
>>>Define 'extremely', and compare against the actual financials.
Itunes store "barely" made a profit last quarter so I would define "extremely profitable" as being that the profits from the itunes-store exceed the profits generated on the sales of actual ipod hardware.
I disagree. Compare it to the competitors, and it's extremely profitable indeed... because it is profitable at *all*. NO ONE will be extremely profitable while the RIAA runs things.
Once Apple gets itunes-store extremely profitable
Of course Ipods and pcs are like apples and oranges but both require "innovation" (like all products) to create new features that people want to create demand and profits in the future.
There's plenty of innovation left in just the music playing arena. BT headphones? That was my mother's first question on hearing about the iPod shuffle - whether she could use BT earbuds and eliminate the wires completely. How about enhancing the music accoutrements experience, with liner notes, perhaps artist commentary tracks as overlays? Plenty of room there.
Digital Hub, where the iPods roam free.
Originally posted by Kickaha
I disagree. Compare it to the competitors, and it's extremely profitable indeed... because it is profitable at *all*. NO ONE will be extremely profitable while the RIAA runs things.
There's plenty of innovation left in just the music playing arena. BT headphones? That was my mother's first question on hearing about the iPod shuffle - whether she could use BT earbuds and eliminate the wires completely. How about enhancing the music accoutrements experience, with liner notes, perhaps artist commentary tracks as overlays? Plenty of room there.
If you are right then Apple must make a profit on the hardware but as the ipod becomes more of a commodity (which it will) its profits will erode per unit.
Sure these refinements are nice but they are hardly substantial innovative leaps that justify paying a premium price like the current ipods demand.
Selling a piece of hardware is easy. Selling an infrastructure is hard... but they've done it, and are now reaping the profits. And will continue to do so, until someone else can create that same ecosystem. Right now, that looks to be pretty unlikely for the foreseeable future.
AND... for video and such, they are definitely sowing the seeds with MPEG-4, H.264, HD video editing, etc, etc, etc. It's getting there, but jumping into the fray before all the pieces have a prayer of being in place is stupid.
Originally posted by Kickaha
You're still missing the point. You're paying for the iPod *AND* the integration with iTunes *AND* the integration with the iTMS. Can anyone else offer that? Nope. They can offer analogs, but nothing that comes close for ease of use, breadth, or simplicity.
Selling a piece of hardware is easy. Selling an infrastructure is hard... but they've done it, and are now reaping the profits. And will continue to do so, until someone else can create that same ecosystem. Right now, that looks to be pretty unlikely for the foreseeable future.
AND... for video and such, they are definitely sowing the seeds with MPEG-4, H.264, HD video editing, etc, etc, etc. It's getting there, but jumping into the fray before all the pieces have a prayer of being in place is stupid.
I agree, and like I said many times before I think they will continue to dominate the digital-music industry but the problem I forsee in the future is the profits on ipod hardware could decline unless excting new feature are added to generate hype since the hype of adding a larger HD can only last for so long without some new killer-feature to utilize it.
Originally posted by johnsocal
I agree, and like I said many times before I think they will continue to dominate the digital-music industry but the problem I forsee in the future is the profits on ipod hardware could decline unless excting new feature are added to generate hype since the hype of adding a larger HD can only last for so long without some new killer-feature to utilize it.
There are enough improvements to be made to keep them making updates for a while - the iPod photo is crying out for direct USB connection to digital cameras, and all of the iPods need longer battery life. Bring these updates out before Christmas and Apple can be sure to sell as many iPods this year as last year.