new anouncements??

trout · February 11, 2005 3:24PM

this is my theory:

Apple just released a new version of its operating system

Apple just updated the PowerBooks

Apple just anounced a 2 for 1 stock split, effective on the 18th of Feb.

They will be looking for a little traction on the 18th to move the stock up.

I bet they anounce an update to the PowerMac's (303 days in the waiting!!!!)

and perhaps to the iMac's as well!

any thoughts??

trout

superkarate monkeydeathcar · February 11, 2005 3:30PM

sound logic but powermacs won't do much for the stock price. maybe they'll announce tiger in that time frame. there is a gap between when it splits and when the stocks begins to be traded with the split stock, which i believe is the 28th of February, which is a monday. I would circle march 1st.

cubist · February 11, 2005 3:56PM

New PMs are overdue, and releasing them would stimulate a lot of high-margin sales.

But as for something affecting the stock price, who knows? There seems to be no way to predict what effect anything will have on the stock price.

trout · February 11, 2005 4:07PM

my reasoning is this,

bare with me:

Apple is on a tear. But.....it is trading at 60+ times earings and that is dangerous, if you want the stock to keep climbing higher. As the stock climbes out of the 70's and into the 80's the number of investors that can keep chasing it dramatically falls off, thus resulting is lower volume. Volume is critical. With a stock that is going straight up, like apple has, you have to sustain volume to keep interest high, and were back to the stock price and it currently is volume limiting.

Now comes in the split, 2 for 1. This brings the volume variable down to modest levels and casual investors, who likely are behind the curve, can play again. In all likelyhood this stock is very near its peak, and most of the money to be made in apple for the time being, has already been made. Regardless, the volume can keep going now. So to feed volume you NEED "EARNINGS" and you cant just MEET analysts earnings, you ahve to continue to BEAT the wall street estimates. When you are trading at 60 times future earnings, you MUST surprise wall street, you must dazzle the institutional money managers, and the only way to do that, is to beat earnings and show strong profit margins with no end in sight.

back to an announcement, we are getting close to end of forst quarter, and thus an earnings call/or earnings report is close at hand, albeit two months off. So after the split, they should make some announcements that will contribute to strong sales for the end of the first quarter. And the sales need to be on high margin products, PowerMacs, with there accompaning cinema media display purchases. iMac sales must end strong and the shuffle must out sell expectations, all this should lead to another, the 8th straight, "beating of wall streets expectations". Thus justifing the high price and further justifing more movement and volume for higher demand.

my .02= announcements soon.

trout

jcg · February 11, 2005 4:08PM

Quote:

Originally posted by cubist

New PMs are overdue, and releasing them would stimulate a lot of high-margin sales.

But as for something affecting the stock price, who knows? There seems to be no way to predict what effect anything will have on the stock price.

Apple's stock would move better with consumer anouncements, their focus this year if I recall from the keynote, which would mean an iPod or iMac revision, possibly with price drops on the iMac and or an eMac anouncemnt. Not sure that I would bet on any one of these though, it would be better for Apple investors for the price to come down (to sell more) a little before heating up again this spring/summer with the release of Tiger and anticipation of WWDC. As long as there isn't any bad news it probably won't drop too much in that time, and with all the current buz on Apple there is a good chance it will continue to climb without any anouncements.

superkarate monkeydeathcar · February 11, 2005 4:23PM

apple stock went down when the cheese grater was announced. unless they have something really revolutionary to announce....but I think a powermac bump would be handled the same way the powerbooks were done.

brendon · February 12, 2005 10:05AM

Sorry SK MDC intended for Trout:

Quote:

this is my theory:

Apple just released a new version of its operating system

Apple just updated the PowerBooks

Apple just anounced a 2 for 1 stock split, effective on the 18th of Feb.

They will be looking for a little traction on the 18th to move the stock up.

I bet they anounce an update to the PowerMac's (303 days in the waiting!!!!)

and perhaps to the iMac's as well!

any thoughts??

trout

Quote:

Originally posted by superkarate monkeydeathcar

apple stock went down when the cheese grater was announced. unless they have something really revolutionary to announce....but I think a powermac bump would be handled the same way the powerbooks were done.

The split and product announcements are not related. But I hope for your sake I'm wrong. Good luck

tedndi · February 12, 2005 11:54AM

I wouldn't expect anything new till after 1st Q earnings are out. 3/25 or so.

Then tiger

Then WWDC - powermacs with cell

Then Paris g5 pB in time for school orders

my .02

new anouncements??

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