I Am NOT Impressed By Analysts

sunilraman · February 23, 2005 12:45AM

This is just food for thought

Some guy at Merrill Lynch, that bastion of financial ethics reads too much Mac rumors and says Apple-Sony partnership emminent.

Stock climbs to $90

Sony says, no, we are making iPod Killer, proceeds to stab Apple in the back after Sony-Apple MacworldSF2005 love-fest

Stock slips to $85

Sony dumps Clie, possibly meaning focusing strongly on iPod-killer and Vaio line... Apple refocuses iPod line in this next few days.

Analyst: "Apple will continue to gain market share"

http://www.appleinsider.com/news.php?id=900

Well, duh...

Ah okay I had a point somewhere here just that I tried my best to voice my frustration of all these analyst losers

relic · February 23, 2005 4:00AM

Don't read their crap then; most of these guys barley passed the CFA. Every once in awhile they might have a nugget of useful info but it?s probably more beneficial and educational if you do your one analytics on the company. Just a bunch of modern day Gypsies with a crystal ball, pretty silly stuff.

sunilraman · February 23, 2005 4:57AM

thanks for the support, i am not actively investing in stocks at this stage...

it just got me, that once AAPL hit $80 these analysts are obviously tryin to bend it over and ride it, if you get my drift... like the guy that "speculated" on the sony-apple partnership...

"they probably never used a Mac in their life..!

i thought that sh1t had ended with the dot-com burst and enron and worldcom and stuff

relic · February 23, 2005 5:16AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sunilraman

it just got me, that once AAPL hit $80 these analysts are obviously tryin to bend it over and ride it, if you get my drift... like the guy that "speculated" on the sony-apple partnership...

That's right, they're also the same bunch of know-it-alls that predicted the demise of Apple when it was trading in the low teens a few years back.

spindler · February 23, 2005 6:43PM

Do people actually think that analysts get paid a lot of money just for doing nothing? I guess these are the people whose parents didn't teach them the concept of respect.

Analysts have been completely right about Apple for the last 5 years while many Mac people were calling them "idiots".

Analysts continually said that Apple would never gain any Mac marketshare until they impressed people on the PC side. Analysts said that OS X in 2001, iMovie, iTunes, and iPhoto WOULD NOT persuade PC users to buy Macs. And they were correct. When the Ipod was Mac only for the first six months, analysts said that PC users WOULD NOT switch and they were correct. But many people who need to view everything in black and white religious terms bitched endlessly about how analysts know nothing.

But analysts also predicted EXACTLY what it would take for Mac marketshare to go up. They said Apple should port the iApps to the PC, or move to Intel processors. And they were correct in there reasoning. The only way possible to to PC users to switch, which started happening last quarter, was to impress them AT THEIR PCs, and that holding back everything for the Mac wouldn't do anything. And iTunes and the iPod ON THEIR PCs was what finally did the trick.

All along Mac users with their head in the sand, like Bill Palmer or the MacObserver guy just said they were "idiots" and it would be suicide for Apple to port anything to the PC. They said you have to keep everything Mac only to give PC users an incentive to switch. This isolationist line of reasoning was COMPLETELY WRONG while analysts were completely right.

Usually the person who casually calls other people idiots is the idiot himself.

scott · February 23, 2005 7:50PM

Free speech makes it easy to figure out who the idiots are. Or maybe not.

kickaha · February 23, 2005 8:05PM

spindler: Let me guess, you're an analyst?

Analysts, as a pool, have a pretty piss poor track record, across the board. They react, they don't predict well. At best, they're neutral folk making a best guess that rarely has much to do with reality in the end. At worst, they're PR mouthpieces for stock houses pushing stocks up and down at will.

And that's really about it. There are a few good ones out there, but they are damned few and far between, the majority are simply fund managers that couldn't really hack it making actual money. Rather like any other kind of critic.

hiro · February 23, 2005 9:46PM

Analysts are rewarded by how much revenue their analyses provide their investment house. They don't have to be right, just not wrong enough to loose a ton of money every time. It's all about the well disguised churn, not about actually making realistic predictions.

ipodandimac · February 23, 2005 10:24PM

dont forget that Think Secret's reports have influenced AAPL as well.

sunilraman · February 23, 2005 11:03PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ipodandimac

dont forget that Think Secret's reports have influenced AAPL as well.

well for 'mom-and-pop' investors, i guess yes...

slughead · February 23, 2005 11:07PM

well the analysts were right about the iPod price cuts

ipodandimac · February 23, 2005 11:09PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sunilraman

well for 'mom-and-pop' investors, i guess yes...

well i'm just saying that when TS reported on the Mac mini, AAPL responded positively. This also happened way back when with iMac g5 speculation from TS. I personally wouldnt buy or sell stock based on a rumor site, but obviously a lot of people do.

benton · February 24, 2005 2:29AM

Apple market cap 37 billion plus premium. Any buyers at this inflated range? Me neither while share price remains over valued at current fundamentals.

sunilraman · February 24, 2005 2:56AM

Quote:

Originally posted by ipodandimac

well i'm just saying that when TS reported on the Mac mini, AAPL responded positively. This also happened way back when with iMac g5 speculation from TS. I personally wouldnt buy or sell stock based on a rumor site, but obviously a lot of people do.

cool

\ i concur, i think you have made a good point

sunilraman · February 24, 2005 2:58AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Benton

Apple market cap 37 billion plus premium. Any buyers at this inflated range? Me neither while share price remains over valued at current fundamentals.

yup,

i think getting in now is a bit too late now...

power apple · February 24, 2005 8:11AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Benton

Apple market cap 37 billion plus premium. Any buyers at this inflated range? Me neither while share price remains over valued at current fundamentals.

That's an overly simplistic, and basically flawed look at the situation. You simply cannot make that statement and make it sound like a fact. The stock price is at the current levels because of the potential outlook, NOT the current fundamentals. You know this of course, but this also means that you cannot simply call the stock inflated. Current fundamentals are meaningless except as a comparison to future levels.

The current price could very well be over-valued. Or it could be valued just right, or even significantly undervalued!! This all depends on how well the iPods and mac minis and other products sell right now and in the future (and of course Apple's ability to meet demand and all sorts of other related issues). As always, short of having insider knowledge of the current sales and Apple's future products (and projected sales and income), investing - at least in AAPL - is matter of belief and hope... (I've invested and followed AAPL very closely since 1997. Trust me, I'm right about this!)

You may be right that the stock is inflated at current prices, time will tell, but stating it as a fact (the way I read your post) is plain wrong.

Personally I believe it will reach and possibly surpass 100$ (50$ post-split) because I believe iPods and mac minis are selling very well, and I hope they will not be met by unexpected troubles and I hope Apple is executing wery well and thus will have a great quater. I hope. I think

relic · February 24, 2005 8:26AM

Aaaah screw it, I 'm a gambler. Time to short the f-cker. So does anyone know of a broker who gives 4 to 1 margin on short selling?

e1618978 · February 24, 2005 8:34AM

I don't know about the Apple Analysts, but the Nortel analysts are a bunch of idiots. I sat on a conference call once, and listened to them ask the CEO questions - a co-op student knows way more than any of them.

I Am NOT Impressed By Analysts

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