Those 22m DVD players are just that DVD players. Those PS3 Blue-ray drives will mostly be just that, drives for PS3 games. While Sony will have most of players out there they are in the wrong market, they are stuck in gaming consoles not in DVD players. While PS3 will be able to play Blue-ray movies/DVDs, just like my PS2 can play DVDs. The problem is that while all of the PS2s can play DVDs do you count them as DVD players or as gaming consoles. The numbers will be large but the impact on the DVD player market will be small, but those numbers will help manufacturing drive down the costs associated with manufacture.
If you were going to publish a HD movie, would you ignore those 14 million PS3s? Of course not - you would either forget HD and publish a regular DVD, or publish one that would work on the PS3.
Publishing a movie for 100K high-end players while ignoring 14 million PS3s would be foolish. I have a high-end theater, and my primary HD player will be a PS3, and the same with everyone I know. I doubt that high-end home theater people will even bother with HD-DVD players.
One thing is for sure, a format war is an idea so bad it's amazing that we are going to have to go through another one. It's bad for absolutely everyone, it will be a disaster.
We're going through another one because all the manufacturers (rightly) perceive that whatever format emerges has the potential distribution lifespan of CD's.
Think about it.
So long as it holds the highest quality broadcast resolution (1080i/p) there will be little reason to re-jig it for as long as HDTV is the standard broadcast medium. At least 25 years. More advanced storage media will appear almost immediately after the market has settled this debate, but it won't matter, just as it didn't matter that CD's were quickly eclipsed -- they're still selling, where is SACD or DVD-A ? Computers will have ever more advanced media, PVR's and On-demand service will satiate much of our personal recording needs, but for those who want to own their copy, a cheap, reliable, stable medium that also happens to extract as much performance as can be expected from the (essentially static) display parameters we've agreed upon? Gold.
What about Toshiba's arrogance? It's pretty much them against Pioneer, Philips, Sony, JVC, Panasonic, etc. They are the ones pushing a boulder up a hill. At least the BluRay disc structure has a future. HD-DVD is all about cost cutting. Capacity is limited. Recording is an afterthought. Give them less for more seems to be the theme.
Actually Toshiba is far from arrogant. Ever notice how Toshiba/NEC's AOD disc was approved by the DVD-Forum and thus can have "DVD" in the name? That's because the DVD-Forum looked at proposals for the nextgen disc and then chose the best format that would carry on the DVD name. Sony never submitted their Blu-Ray proposal and struck out on their own. If anyone is arrogant here it's Sony. There's nothing wrong with HD-DVDs disc structure. Triple Layer discs bring up 45GB of data which is going to be fine until we move on to 2k or higher recording resolutions. Blu-Rays future 4 layer discs are superfluous for movie content delivery.
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One much neglected fact is which will win in the PC space. Dell, HP and Apple have all signed on with Blu-ray, as has EA games. I can't see Microsoft turning to Dell and HP and saying sorry only HD-DVD support either. If you have a Blu-ray writer on your computer which player do you go out and buy?
What people tend to forget is that there are plenty of companies that are members in both groups such as Apple. Thus they are well positioned to move in either direction. Apple is listed as a Blu-Ray supporter based on the fact that they joined the BDA BoD when they've been a member of the DVD Forum much longer and today ship HD-DVD authoring in DVD Studio Pro 4. Sounds like a fence straddler if I ever saw one.
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Publishing a movie for 100K high-end players while ignoring 14 million PS3s would be foolish. I have a high-end theater, and my primary HD player will be a PS3, and the same with everyone I know. I doubt that high-end home theater people will even bother with HD-DVD players
That's laughable. No one with a high end theater buying into HD playback is going to purchase only one unit. Initially certain movies are only going to be available on Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. Thus if you want a decent collection for your theater you'll need both players. I'm hearing a bunch of whining and moaning but those who will buy in to the 1st and 2nd generation realize that they'll likely need both players.
I'm constantly amused by the attempts of some people to make these formats seem so different. My official positioning is that we're going to see a format battle because neither side really offers a significant overall advantage over the other. Neither has a large amount of "exclusive" partners and thus you will see vendors move from one side to another and ship both formats (LG)until they've decided on who they think will win over all.
I'm not a Blu-Ray detractor but I generally fight for HD-DVD because Blu-Ray fans tend to use idiotic logic to support why they believe Blu-Ray is some "can't miss" tech. I realize that I'll need both drives and if I could get an Xbox360 HD and PS3 I'd gladly do that. I'm interested in content moreso than flogging some playback device's marketing tripe.
Actually Toshiba is far from arrogant. Ever notice how Toshiba/NEC's AOD disc was approved by the DVD-Forum and thus can have "DVD" in the name?
That doesn't make it any more official. The DVD-Forum does not set the standard. They only decide what they want to see as a standard and push it. They are like political lobbyists. Go to their website and see what it says in the upper right hand corner under announcements. Talk about arrogance.
You need to look beyond prerecorded movies for a next-generation format. You have to take recording HD content off TV into consideration and you need to take computer storage into consideration. HD-DVD is severly limited in these respects. BluRay is the one format that does it all.
That's laughable. No one with a high end theater buying into HD playback is going to purchase only one unit. Initially certain movies are only going to be available on Blu-Ray or HD-DVD.
I've spent 60K on my stereo, and 40K on my home theater - so I think that I am pretty representative audiophile and home theater buff.
I have no plans for a HD-DVD player. You say that movies will be available on both - but I think that the currently planned HD-DVD movies will be cancelled, I just can't see the market being worth entering for HD-DVD.
With so few players, you are not going to be able to make any money selling HD-DVDs. Blue-ray, maybe, since people with PS3s will buy the blue-ray disks even if they don't have an HDTV set, because they won't want to re-purchace the same movie later.
HD-DVD will be a much smaller market than even laserdisk was, and it will die as a result. The only think that can save HD-DVD is Microsoft (if they launch the 360 with a HD-DVD drive).
That doesn't make it any more official. The DVD-Forum does not set the standard.
They do if "DVD" is to be in the name legitimately. Although it really doesn't matter. Blu-Ray breaks the format started with DVD which allows for more space to ooh and ahhh geeks but it comes with it's own issues as well. Hence HD-DVD is further along in the game.
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You need to look beyond prerecorded movies for a next-generation format. You have to take recording HD content off TV into consideration and you need to take computer storage into consideration. HD-DVD is severly limited in these respects. BluRay is the one format that does it all.
Typical Blu-Ray fanboism. HD-DVD Recordable is 20GB for a single layer and has already been announced and is on the HD-DVD Promomotion Group website. Neither format will really make significant strides as a backup medium at 8MBps speed(BD 2x) that's too slow. The industry is rapidly moving towards NAS/SAN/D2D backup strategies. There's really no room for Blu-Ray as a viable backup medium beyond the typical low volume consumer.
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I've spent 60K on my stereo, and 40K on my home theater - so I think that I am pretty representative audiophile and home theater buff.
While your system greatly exceeds the price and capability of mine I can assure you that many if not most over at AVS don't support your idea of boycotting one format. In fact most either will buy both initially or hold off and see how the market goes. I feel your decision to boycott HD-DVD seems to be coming from emotive reasons rather than logical. Content in HD is the endgame to most. They'd just rather it not require two players to do so.
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I've spent 60K on my stereo, and 40K on my home theater - so I think that I am pretty representative audiophile and home theater buff.
Then Time Warner, New Line, Universal and Paramount movies will not be in your collection. Seems rather daft to spend 60k and not be able to watch half the movies out there doesn't it?
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With so few players, you are not going to be able to make any money selling HD-DVDs. Blue-ray, maybe, since people with PS3s will buy the blue-ray disks even if they don't have an HDTV set, because they won't want to re-purchace the same movie later.
It is not known how the PS3 will handle Blu-Ray discs on a standard def TV. It certainly won't be HD so I doubt the impact will be that great. HD-DVD just got a huge proponent in Microsoft so their survival just got some insurance.
Don't get me wrong...both formats will survive for the time being and we'll see if universal drives crop up. However I'm frankly tired of reading how Blu-Ray is superior and how the public is being hoodwinked into HD-DVD when the information available publically has the race as a dead heat.
I surmise that
45/50GB- is going to be fine for a while. At that size 8 hrs of HD content can be stored easily with excellent audio as well. Muliple discs will be used for series.
Authoring- Consumers don't really care about the menus and all that but both formats will improve on DVDs rapidly aging menus
Cost- This is where the debate still rages on. Not a factor to consumers really but it will decide what format is more profitable to studios. HD-DVD seems to have the initial lead. Blu-Rays need for additional protection is going to increase costs...how much is the question.
The physical structure of TL HD DVD is idential to DVD-14, which is a dual layer DVD9 on one side and a single layer DVD5 on the other.
The only difference with TL HD DVD is that the bonding layer is part of the optical path, so all three layers can be read from one side.
Panasonic claimed that because of this, the bonding layer's precision needed impossible tolerances.
However, this claim is incorrect, because the middle spin coated bonding layer in TL HDDVD is sandwiched between the two 0.6mm polycarbonate cover layers. This means that guaranteeing the spin coating thickness is trivial, as long as you maintain contant pressure across the surface of the disc as the bonding layer is spun in and UV cured.
Regular dual layer HD DVD requires 10 microns tolerance, and it's estimated that TL requires tightening up the tolerance by only about a micron or two.
In BD if you try spin coating, there is nothing forcing the comformity of the spun cover layer, which results in thickness variations due to the variable centripetal force applied to the resin as you spin the disc (centripetal force is greater the closer to the edge you get).
This ruins the disc by creating something called a "ski jump", where the thickness of the cover layer increases as you get closer to the outer edge. Worse, dual layer BD requires tolerances on the order of 1 or 2 microns.
There is a special process to compensate for this problem in the works, but it's complicated, multi-step, and tricky to implement, which is why BD duplicators are still using thin film application instead of spin coating, resulting in BD manufacturing being both slow and expensive.
This is all summarized from the article in the CED. The credibility of articles published in the CED is up to you to decide.
What he's saing is that the Triple Layer 45GB HD-DVD disc is no harder to make than the DVD-14 discs of today although DVD-14 is a rare format that consists of a dual layer side and a single layer side. In this case they have cleverly made the bonding layer see through so that there is no need to flip the disc.
They do if "DVD" is to be in the name legitimately. Although it really doesn't matter. Blu-Ray breaks the format started with DVD which allows for more space to ooh and ahhh geeks but it comes with it's own issues as well. Hence HD-DVD is further along in the game.
Who cares about the name if it's a weaker format? I'm not going to base a buying decision on something because it has a prettier name. Plenty of people use DVD+RW even those the vaunted DVD Forum considers it an abomination. I guess being able to fit more recorded tv programs on a disc is a "geek" issue to you but I would think most people buying HDTV equipment would consider this to be an important feature. Maybe even more so for computer use. Files and media are always getting bigger. Isn't it best to have a format that can handle the future as opposed to a format that will need to be replaced over and over again?
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Typical Blu-Ray fanboism. HD-DVD Recordable is 20GB for a single layer and has already been announced and is on the HD-DVD Promomotion Group website. Neither format will really make significant strides as a backup medium at 8MBps speed(BD 2x) that's too slow. The industry is rapidly moving towards NAS/SAN/D2D backup strategies. There's really no room for Blu-Ray as a viable backup medium beyond the typical low volume consumer.
You seem to be just as big an HD-DVD fanboy as you apparently can't see past your own needs. If you have no need or interest in recording HD content or backing up your home computer data that means no one else would either? No one has even suggested that BluRay should become a backup medium for anything other than consumers and small businesses. I would rather have a BluRay drive in my laptop than lug around some bulky and expensive backup system with me. Having a recordable 100GB or 200GB BluRay disc sounds like a good idea to me considering what the average hard drive size will be by then.
Well if your "pitch" on HD-DVD being weaker is limited to total capacity I think you'll find your arguement falls on deaf ears. People care about the move. We don't buy DVDs by the size we buy the content. Neither format has any instrinsic limitations that make them unable to provide the movie as consumers expect.
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Maybe even more so for computer use. Files and media are always getting bigger. Isn't it best to have a format that can handle the future as opposed to a format that will need to be replaced over and over again?
Optical media is a backup tool for consumers. Although I think consumers will mirror what the SMB markets are doing by backing up to disc. Optical media fits in here but remember the recordable media is single layer and only 5GB seperates HD-DVD-R and BD Recording (20GB vs 25GB).
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You seem to be just as big an HD-DVD fanboy as you apparently can't see past your own needs. If you have no need or interest in recording HD content or backing up your home computer data that means no one else would either?
No my point is inertia is with hard drive backup. Even 2x Blu-Ray is rather slow. I think consumers will start using Disc image software with snapshot compatibility. Thus you need to restore just load up the last disc image. Optical backups cannot give you this speed. With low cost RAID 1 and 5 I don't see optical being very big. However YMMV but the computer backup ability of both formats is highly overstated IMO.
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Having a recordable 100GB or 200GB BluRay disc sounds like a good idea to me considering what the average hard drive size will be by then.
Divide 100GB or 200GB by 8MBps and then tell me do you really want to wait this long to retrieve all your data. These drives will likely be 4x but even then we're still talking a slow device. With hard drives and perpendicular recording we're going to see low cost half-terabyte drives for pennies on the Gigabyte.
Thus I look at both formats based on their merits as a content delivery platform and potential home recording solution and I see that the race is a lot closer than people portray. Is HD-DVD leagues better than Blu-Ray ..no and vice versa.
I defend HD-DVD only because Blue-Ray appeals to the natural human desire of "more more more". Most Blu-Ray fans have succombed to this and were hooked when Sony enticed with vaporware ruture roadmaps with 4 and 8 layer discs.
Reality is a bit more humbling. DVDs hold 18GB if you want to use both sides. Hardly anyone uses DVD-18 now because it makes more financial sense to ship two DVD-9s. I don't expect BR to be any different. Two 50GB discs will trump the one 100GB disc for most studios.
Then Time Warner, New Line, Universal and Paramount movies will not be in your collection. Seems rather daft to spend 60k and not be able to watch half the movies out there doesn't it?
I think that our disagreement comes down to this:
1. I think that when those movies studios see the initial distribution of players (98% Blue-ray/ 2% HD-DVD), they will make a financial decision to dump HD-DVD.
1. The PS3 won't be out for a half year after HD-DVD is already shipping. The focus for PS3 buyers is going to be playing games. Sure some with capable HDTV will buy movies but the advantage is often overstated.
2. I think both formats will slug it out with no eventual winner. I think Samsung and other fence sitters will look towards universal players. Althought the optics are different it's nothing that cannot be overcome with good engineering.
1. The PS3 won't be out for a half year after HD-DVD is already shipping. The focus for PS3 buyers is going to be playing games. Sure some with capable HDTV will buy movies but the advantage is often overstated.
2. I think both formats will slug it out with no eventual winner. I think Samsung and other fence sitters will look towards universal players. Althought the optics are different it's nothing that cannot be overcome with good engineering.
It is the volume that you need to consider when rebutting the first issue though hmurchison. I agree with the point you are making but I am not sure even diehard home theatre enthusiasts will be buying HD-DVD players in the same volume. In fact I will probably lay money that within three months of PS3 launch, it will have outsold the HD-DVD players that had the head-start.
Toshiba's prime consideration is the interests of consumers and the company pursues any course that benefits them, said Nishida, who took the top job at Toshiba on Friday. On disc structure, the company has argued that its format is superior because it is similar to current DVDs, and so can be produced cheaply on existing production lines.
The Blu-ray Disc group maintains its format is superior because it can hold more data, accommodating longer movies and additional features, extras and interactive content.
Nishida's comments were made at a news conference held with Microsoft at which Bill Gates, Microsoft's chairman and chief software architect, said the two companies will explore ways in which Windows CE technology can be employed in HD-DVD's interactive platform.
So total capacity denotes superiority? If Lord of the Rings Extended Edition fits on both formats with extras what's the point of a capacity pissing contest. How many people by a movie for the extras? I'd guess that only about %10 of movie purchasers care about the extras. They watch the outtakes or blooper once ...laugh and never watch them again (gross generalizations here but closer to the truth IMO). Interactive has been the mostg overused and tired buzzword. Sony sucks at interaction and I don't want to play games on my movies..I just want to play them and have the picture look good. Blu-Ray is a $100 product when only a $10 solution is needed.
The Olive branch is extended but Sony's going forward with BD endabled PS3 and Toshiba has their lineup for Q4 2005. I don't expect much...this smacks of CYA "We tried to unify but xxx wouldn't go for it"
Blu-Rays future 4 layer discs are superfluous for movie content delivery.
Yes, and the 800 MB CD-R format is superfluous for album content delivery, because everyone knows that rock albums are only 40 minutes long, except for the two record "concept albums" that are better to to put on two CDs so they can charge for two CDs.
Just as it is better to put TeeVee series on multiple discs so that consumers are willing to pay more. I mean, if a whole season of The Sopranos fit on one disc, it would be hard to charge over 20-30 bucks for it.
What I mean is, the movie industry will prefer formats that compliment the discreet units of video they deal in. The industry wants to be able to sell people movies, not trilogies and definitely not a director's entire body of work on one disc. Consumers are still attached to the idea of buying a tangible "thing" when they purchase a movie, and so by fixing a single movie to a single "thing" that can be purchased, the industry makes the most money. If a consumer could suddenly buy one "thing" but posses many movies, the urge would remain to pay only for a single "thing".
I'd like to see a model where movies are not purchased as "things" but rather as ideas and concepts. I want to walk into a movie store, browse the movies via terminals possessing info on writers, directors, actors, etc, and then go to the checkout, plug in my iPod, and leave with however many movies I want. If I "rent" them, then they self-destruct on my HD after a few viewings, but I can also buy them to keep them on my HD forever (and to back up to a "thing" that will last longer). Of course I will only rent movies under this scheme, because I'll be able to excise the self destruct encryption using a pirate utility found on the web. And I won't care because even if everyone steals movies this way, the directors, writers, and actors still make great money, and the corporate executives make insane amounts of money.
I shall name call my new model of movie distribution, "The iPod That Exploded".
The format that will win is the one that the Porn industry adopts, unless it moves to internet delivery/download as a standard in which case it will be left to the movie studio's and rental industry to decide.
HAHA, that's funny. The porn industry still uses the most cheap crappy beta max cameras and crappy equipment to put a crappy quality video on a crappy quality DVD and VHS and you think they'll be the deciding factor in a format that would cost the porn industry millions to change over to? HAHAHA.
Porn will sell on the crappiest media, the porn industry will only spend money to extend profits and/or to make their process easier. They will not spend more money to make their movies better.
Seen many 16:9 anamorphic big booty sluts from Brazil DVDs with 5.1 DD surround sound? They won't go HD because they don't broadcast HD porn and DVDs can't handle the bandwidth. And once BRD and HD-DVD is out next year, you think these low tech and low key porn companies are going to spend thousands and thousands of dollars on new cameras? New software and new burners?
Playboy might, but they aren't what I consider porn.
It will come down to 1) movie releases and 2) cost and compatibility of equipment.
If Sony puts out their PS3 with BRD at $300-$400 and releases their entire collection while Toshiba uses buggy M$ software on their $1000+ player it's over.
If xBox and PS3 both have their format players under $500 it will come down to movie releases and to the first wave of players from Pioneer, JVC, Marantz, Denon etc and who they choose. The format with more movies and cheapest hardware will win regardless of what the hot blonde is doing with those 3 guys.
It will come down to 1) movie releases and 2) cost and compatibility of equipment.
If Sony puts out their PS3 with BRD at $300-$400 and releases their entire collection while Toshiba uses buggy M$ software on their $1000+ player it's over.
If xBox and PS3 both have their format players under $500 it will come down to movie releases and to the first wave of players from Pioneer, JVC, Marantz, Denon etc and who they choose. The format with more movies and cheapest hardware will win regardless of what the hot blonde is doing with those 3 guys.
The voice of reason, think god, finally!
I don't care technically which one wins - hm, I am not the Blue-ray fanboy that you think I am. I just see the chess pieces lined up, and I can tell who will win.
I just want you to enjoy the movies on your home theatre. we shouldn't be in the position to have to chose. The Entertainment industry is developing quite the poor track record consumer friendliness.
I just want you to enjoy the movies on your home theatre. we shouldn't be in the position to have to chose. The Entertainment industry is developing quite the poor track record consumer friendliness.
But they are usually no match for teenage hackers. The PSP has just been cracked, so soon I will have a choice in cool web browsers and stuff that I can load on mine.
Uniform hardware is good if they can't keep it locked down.
I think that I also found a place that sells HDMI->DVI converters, which I will need to hook my PS3 to my VGA-only CRT projector. Heh heh heh...
Comments
Originally posted by Brendon
Those 22m DVD players are just that DVD players. Those PS3 Blue-ray drives will mostly be just that, drives for PS3 games. While Sony will have most of players out there they are in the wrong market, they are stuck in gaming consoles not in DVD players. While PS3 will be able to play Blue-ray movies/DVDs, just like my PS2 can play DVDs. The problem is that while all of the PS2s can play DVDs do you count them as DVD players or as gaming consoles. The numbers will be large but the impact on the DVD player market will be small, but those numbers will help manufacturing drive down the costs associated with manufacture.
If you were going to publish a HD movie, would you ignore those 14 million PS3s? Of course not - you would either forget HD and publish a regular DVD, or publish one that would work on the PS3.
Publishing a movie for 100K high-end players while ignoring 14 million PS3s would be foolish. I have a high-end theater, and my primary HD player will be a PS3, and the same with everyone I know. I doubt that high-end home theater people will even bother with HD-DVD players.
Originally posted by kotatsu
One thing is for sure, a format war is an idea so bad it's amazing that we are going to have to go through another one. It's bad for absolutely everyone, it will be a disaster.
We're going through another one because all the manufacturers (rightly) perceive that whatever format emerges has the potential distribution lifespan of CD's.
Think about it.
So long as it holds the highest quality broadcast resolution (1080i/p) there will be little reason to re-jig it for as long as HDTV is the standard broadcast medium. At least 25 years. More advanced storage media will appear almost immediately after the market has settled this debate, but it won't matter, just as it didn't matter that CD's were quickly eclipsed -- they're still selling, where is SACD or DVD-A ? Computers will have ever more advanced media, PVR's and On-demand service will satiate much of our personal recording needs, but for those who want to own their copy, a cheap, reliable, stable medium that also happens to extract as much performance as can be expected from the (essentially static) display parameters we've agreed upon? Gold.
What about Toshiba's arrogance? It's pretty much them against Pioneer, Philips, Sony, JVC, Panasonic, etc. They are the ones pushing a boulder up a hill. At least the BluRay disc structure has a future. HD-DVD is all about cost cutting. Capacity is limited. Recording is an afterthought. Give them less for more seems to be the theme.
Actually Toshiba is far from arrogant. Ever notice how Toshiba/NEC's AOD disc was approved by the DVD-Forum and thus can have "DVD" in the name? That's because the DVD-Forum looked at proposals for the nextgen disc and then chose the best format that would carry on the DVD name. Sony never submitted their Blu-Ray proposal and struck out on their own. If anyone is arrogant here it's Sony. There's nothing wrong with HD-DVDs disc structure. Triple Layer discs bring up 45GB of data which is going to be fine until we move on to 2k or higher recording resolutions. Blu-Rays future 4 layer discs are superfluous for movie content delivery.
One much neglected fact is which will win in the PC space. Dell, HP and Apple have all signed on with Blu-ray, as has EA games. I can't see Microsoft turning to Dell and HP and saying sorry only HD-DVD support either. If you have a Blu-ray writer on your computer which player do you go out and buy?
What people tend to forget is that there are plenty of companies that are members in both groups such as Apple. Thus they are well positioned to move in either direction. Apple is listed as a Blu-Ray supporter based on the fact that they joined the BDA BoD when they've been a member of the DVD Forum much longer and today ship HD-DVD authoring in DVD Studio Pro 4. Sounds like a fence straddler if I ever saw one.
Publishing a movie for 100K high-end players while ignoring 14 million PS3s would be foolish. I have a high-end theater, and my primary HD player will be a PS3, and the same with everyone I know. I doubt that high-end home theater people will even bother with HD-DVD players
That's laughable. No one with a high end theater buying into HD playback is going to purchase only one unit. Initially certain movies are only going to be available on Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. Thus if you want a decent collection for your theater you'll need both players. I'm hearing a bunch of whining and moaning but those who will buy in to the 1st and 2nd generation realize that they'll likely need both players.
I'm constantly amused by the attempts of some people to make these formats seem so different. My official positioning is that we're going to see a format battle because neither side really offers a significant overall advantage over the other. Neither has a large amount of "exclusive" partners and thus you will see vendors move from one side to another and ship both formats (LG)until they've decided on who they think will win over all.
I'm not a Blu-Ray detractor but I generally fight for HD-DVD because Blu-Ray fans tend to use idiotic logic to support why they believe Blu-Ray is some "can't miss" tech. I realize that I'll need both drives and if I could get an Xbox360 HD and PS3 I'd gladly do that. I'm interested in content moreso than flogging some playback device's marketing tripe.
Originally posted by hmurchison
Actually Toshiba is far from arrogant. Ever notice how Toshiba/NEC's AOD disc was approved by the DVD-Forum and thus can have "DVD" in the name?
That doesn't make it any more official. The DVD-Forum does not set the standard. They only decide what they want to see as a standard and push it. They are like political lobbyists. Go to their website and see what it says in the upper right hand corner under announcements. Talk about arrogance.
You need to look beyond prerecorded movies for a next-generation format. You have to take recording HD content off TV into consideration and you need to take computer storage into consideration. HD-DVD is severly limited in these respects. BluRay is the one format that does it all.
That's laughable. No one with a high end theater buying into HD playback is going to purchase only one unit. Initially certain movies are only going to be available on Blu-Ray or HD-DVD.
I've spent 60K on my stereo, and 40K on my home theater - so I think that I am pretty representative audiophile and home theater buff.
I have no plans for a HD-DVD player. You say that movies will be available on both - but I think that the currently planned HD-DVD movies will be cancelled, I just can't see the market being worth entering for HD-DVD.
With so few players, you are not going to be able to make any money selling HD-DVDs. Blue-ray, maybe, since people with PS3s will buy the blue-ray disks even if they don't have an HDTV set, because they won't want to re-purchace the same movie later.
HD-DVD will be a much smaller market than even laserdisk was, and it will die as a result. The only think that can save HD-DVD is Microsoft (if they launch the 360 with a HD-DVD drive).
That doesn't make it any more official. The DVD-Forum does not set the standard.
They do if "DVD" is to be in the name legitimately. Although it really doesn't matter. Blu-Ray breaks the format started with DVD which allows for more space to ooh and ahhh geeks but it comes with it's own issues as well. Hence HD-DVD is further along in the game.
You need to look beyond prerecorded movies for a next-generation format. You have to take recording HD content off TV into consideration and you need to take computer storage into consideration. HD-DVD is severly limited in these respects. BluRay is the one format that does it all.
Typical Blu-Ray fanboism. HD-DVD Recordable is 20GB for a single layer and has already been announced and is on the HD-DVD Promomotion Group website. Neither format will really make significant strides as a backup medium at 8MBps speed(BD 2x) that's too slow. The industry is rapidly moving towards NAS/SAN/D2D backup strategies. There's really no room for Blu-Ray as a viable backup medium beyond the typical low volume consumer.
I've spent 60K on my stereo, and 40K on my home theater - so I think that I am pretty representative audiophile and home theater buff.
While your system greatly exceeds the price and capability of mine I can assure you that many if not most over at AVS don't support your idea of boycotting one format. In fact most either will buy both initially or hold off and see how the market goes. I feel your decision to boycott HD-DVD seems to be coming from emotive reasons rather than logical. Content in HD is the endgame to most. They'd just rather it not require two players to do so.
I've spent 60K on my stereo, and 40K on my home theater - so I think that I am pretty representative audiophile and home theater buff.
Then Time Warner, New Line, Universal and Paramount movies will not be in your collection. Seems rather daft to spend 60k and not be able to watch half the movies out there doesn't it?
With so few players, you are not going to be able to make any money selling HD-DVDs. Blue-ray, maybe, since people with PS3s will buy the blue-ray disks even if they don't have an HDTV set, because they won't want to re-purchace the same movie later.
It is not known how the PS3 will handle Blu-Ray discs on a standard def TV. It certainly won't be HD so I doubt the impact will be that great. HD-DVD just got a huge proponent in Microsoft so their survival just got some insurance.
Don't get me wrong...both formats will survive for the time being and we'll see if universal drives crop up. However I'm frankly tired of reading how Blu-Ray is superior and how the public is being hoodwinked into HD-DVD when the information available publically has the race as a dead heat.
I surmise that
45/50GB- is going to be fine for a while. At that size 8 hrs of HD content can be stored easily with excellent audio as well. Muliple discs will be used for series.
Authoring- Consumers don't really care about the menus and all that but both formats will improve on DVDs rapidly aging menus
Cost- This is where the debate still rages on. Not a factor to consumers really but it will decide what format is more profitable to studios. HD-DVD seems to have the initial lead. Blu-Rays need for additional protection is going to increase costs...how much is the question.
Nice AVS Thread on the processes for both HD-DVD and BD
Check this quote
The physical structure of TL HD DVD is idential to DVD-14, which is a dual layer DVD9 on one side and a single layer DVD5 on the other.
The only difference with TL HD DVD is that the bonding layer is part of the optical path, so all three layers can be read from one side.
Panasonic claimed that because of this, the bonding layer's precision needed impossible tolerances.
However, this claim is incorrect, because the middle spin coated bonding layer in TL HDDVD is sandwiched between the two 0.6mm polycarbonate cover layers. This means that guaranteeing the spin coating thickness is trivial, as long as you maintain contant pressure across the surface of the disc as the bonding layer is spun in and UV cured.
Regular dual layer HD DVD requires 10 microns tolerance, and it's estimated that TL requires tightening up the tolerance by only about a micron or two.
In BD if you try spin coating, there is nothing forcing the comformity of the spun cover layer, which results in thickness variations due to the variable centripetal force applied to the resin as you spin the disc (centripetal force is greater the closer to the edge you get).
This ruins the disc by creating something called a "ski jump", where the thickness of the cover layer increases as you get closer to the outer edge. Worse, dual layer BD requires tolerances on the order of 1 or 2 microns.
There is a special process to compensate for this problem in the works, but it's complicated, multi-step, and tricky to implement, which is why BD duplicators are still using thin film application instead of spin coating, resulting in BD manufacturing being both slow and expensive.
This is all summarized from the article in the CED. The credibility of articles published in the CED is up to you to decide.
What he's saing is that the Triple Layer 45GB HD-DVD disc is no harder to make than the DVD-14 discs of today although DVD-14 is a rare format that consists of a dual layer side and a single layer side. In this case they have cleverly made the bonding layer see through so that there is no need to flip the disc.
Originally posted by hmurchison
They do if "DVD" is to be in the name legitimately. Although it really doesn't matter. Blu-Ray breaks the format started with DVD which allows for more space to ooh and ahhh geeks but it comes with it's own issues as well. Hence HD-DVD is further along in the game.
Who cares about the name if it's a weaker format? I'm not going to base a buying decision on something because it has a prettier name. Plenty of people use DVD+RW even those the vaunted DVD Forum considers it an abomination. I guess being able to fit more recorded tv programs on a disc is a "geek" issue to you but I would think most people buying HDTV equipment would consider this to be an important feature. Maybe even more so for computer use. Files and media are always getting bigger. Isn't it best to have a format that can handle the future as opposed to a format that will need to be replaced over and over again?
Typical Blu-Ray fanboism. HD-DVD Recordable is 20GB for a single layer and has already been announced and is on the HD-DVD Promomotion Group website. Neither format will really make significant strides as a backup medium at 8MBps speed(BD 2x) that's too slow. The industry is rapidly moving towards NAS/SAN/D2D backup strategies. There's really no room for Blu-Ray as a viable backup medium beyond the typical low volume consumer.
You seem to be just as big an HD-DVD fanboy as you apparently can't see past your own needs. If you have no need or interest in recording HD content or backing up your home computer data that means no one else would either? No one has even suggested that BluRay should become a backup medium for anything other than consumers and small businesses. I would rather have a BluRay drive in my laptop than lug around some bulky and expensive backup system with me. Having a recordable 100GB or 200GB BluRay disc sounds like a good idea to me considering what the average hard drive size will be by then.
Who cares about the name if it's a weaker format?
Well if your "pitch" on HD-DVD being weaker is limited to total capacity I think you'll find your arguement falls on deaf ears. People care about the move. We don't buy DVDs by the size we buy the content. Neither format has any instrinsic limitations that make them unable to provide the movie as consumers expect.
Maybe even more so for computer use. Files and media are always getting bigger. Isn't it best to have a format that can handle the future as opposed to a format that will need to be replaced over and over again?
Optical media is a backup tool for consumers. Although I think consumers will mirror what the SMB markets are doing by backing up to disc. Optical media fits in here but remember the recordable media is single layer and only 5GB seperates HD-DVD-R and BD Recording (20GB vs 25GB).
You seem to be just as big an HD-DVD fanboy as you apparently can't see past your own needs. If you have no need or interest in recording HD content or backing up your home computer data that means no one else would either?
No my point is inertia is with hard drive backup. Even 2x Blu-Ray is rather slow. I think consumers will start using Disc image software with snapshot compatibility. Thus you need to restore just load up the last disc image. Optical backups cannot give you this speed. With low cost RAID 1 and 5 I don't see optical being very big. However YMMV but the computer backup ability of both formats is highly overstated IMO.
Having a recordable 100GB or 200GB BluRay disc sounds like a good idea to me considering what the average hard drive size will be by then.
Divide 100GB or 200GB by 8MBps and then tell me do you really want to wait this long to retrieve all your data. These drives will likely be 4x but even then we're still talking a slow device. With hard drives and perpendicular recording we're going to see low cost half-terabyte drives for pennies on the Gigabyte.
Thus I look at both formats based on their merits as a content delivery platform and potential home recording solution and I see that the race is a lot closer than people portray. Is HD-DVD leagues better than Blu-Ray ..no and vice versa.
I defend HD-DVD only because Blue-Ray appeals to the natural human desire of "more more more". Most Blu-Ray fans have succombed to this and were hooked when Sony enticed with vaporware ruture roadmaps with 4 and 8 layer discs.
Reality is a bit more humbling. DVDs hold 18GB if you want to use both sides. Hardly anyone uses DVD-18 now because it makes more financial sense to ship two DVD-9s. I don't expect BR to be any different. Two 50GB discs will trump the one 100GB disc for most studios.
Then Time Warner, New Line, Universal and Paramount movies will not be in your collection. Seems rather daft to spend 60k and not be able to watch half the movies out there doesn't it?
I think that our disagreement comes down to this:
1. I think that when those movies studios see the initial distribution of players (98% Blue-ray/ 2% HD-DVD), they will make a financial decision to dump HD-DVD.
2. You don't think that this will happen.
1. The PS3 won't be out for a half year after HD-DVD is already shipping. The focus for PS3 buyers is going to be playing games. Sure some with capable HDTV will buy movies but the advantage is often overstated.
2. I think both formats will slug it out with no eventual winner. I think Samsung and other fence sitters will look towards universal players. Althought the optics are different it's nothing that cannot be overcome with good engineering.
It looks like there will be no format war, the formats are merging.
Originally posted by e1618978
http://www.boersenreport.de/technolo...01660000000000
It looks like there will be no format war, the formats are merging.
Well that was the hope back when this article was created on April 22nd. Since then the merger rumors have died.
Originally posted by hmurchison
Well that was the hope back when this article was created on April 22nd. Since then the merger rumors have died.
Not quite.
See my post above for Toshiba offering the olive branch (new CEO)...
[Here ]
Originally posted by hmurchison
The problem there is
1. The PS3 won't be out for a half year after HD-DVD is already shipping. The focus for PS3 buyers is going to be playing games. Sure some with capable HDTV will buy movies but the advantage is often overstated.
2. I think both formats will slug it out with no eventual winner. I think Samsung and other fence sitters will look towards universal players. Althought the optics are different it's nothing that cannot be overcome with good engineering.
It is the volume that you need to consider when rebutting the first issue though hmurchison. I agree with the point you are making but I am not sure even diehard home theatre enthusiasts will be buying HD-DVD players in the same volume. In fact I will probably lay money that within three months of PS3 launch, it will have outsold the HD-DVD players that had the head-start.
Pride before the fall?
Toshiba's prime consideration is the interests of consumers and the company pursues any course that benefits them, said Nishida, who took the top job at Toshiba on Friday. On disc structure, the company has argued that its format is superior because it is similar to current DVDs, and so can be produced cheaply on existing production lines.
The Blu-ray Disc group maintains its format is superior because it can hold more data, accommodating longer movies and additional features, extras and interactive content.
Nishida's comments were made at a news conference held with Microsoft at which Bill Gates, Microsoft's chairman and chief software architect, said the two companies will explore ways in which Windows CE technology can be employed in HD-DVD's interactive platform.
So total capacity denotes superiority? If Lord of the Rings Extended Edition fits on both formats with extras what's the point of a capacity pissing contest. How many people by a movie for the extras? I'd guess that only about %10 of movie purchasers care about the extras. They watch the outtakes or blooper once ...laugh and never watch them again (gross generalizations here but closer to the truth IMO). Interactive has been the mostg overused and tired buzzword. Sony sucks at interaction and I don't want to play games on my movies..I just want to play them and have the picture look good. Blu-Ray is a $100 product when only a $10 solution is needed.
The Olive branch is extended but Sony's going forward with BD endabled PS3 and Toshiba has their lineup for Q4 2005. I don't expect much...this smacks of CYA "We tried to unify but xxx wouldn't go for it"
Originally posted by hmurchison
Blu-Rays future 4 layer discs are superfluous for movie content delivery.
Yes, and the 800 MB CD-R format is superfluous for album content delivery, because everyone knows that rock albums are only 40 minutes long, except for the two record "concept albums" that are better to to put on two CDs so they can charge for two CDs.
Just as it is better to put TeeVee series on multiple discs so that consumers are willing to pay more. I mean, if a whole season of The Sopranos fit on one disc, it would be hard to charge over 20-30 bucks for it.
What I mean is, the movie industry will prefer formats that compliment the discreet units of video they deal in. The industry wants to be able to sell people movies, not trilogies and definitely not a director's entire body of work on one disc. Consumers are still attached to the idea of buying a tangible "thing" when they purchase a movie, and so by fixing a single movie to a single "thing" that can be purchased, the industry makes the most money. If a consumer could suddenly buy one "thing" but posses many movies, the urge would remain to pay only for a single "thing".
I'd like to see a model where movies are not purchased as "things" but rather as ideas and concepts. I want to walk into a movie store, browse the movies via terminals possessing info on writers, directors, actors, etc, and then go to the checkout, plug in my iPod, and leave with however many movies I want. If I "rent" them, then they self-destruct on my HD after a few viewings, but I can also buy them to keep them on my HD forever (and to back up to a "thing" that will last longer). Of course I will only rent movies under this scheme, because I'll be able to excise the self destruct encryption using a pirate utility found on the web. And I won't care because even if everyone steals movies this way, the directors, writers, and actors still make great money, and the corporate executives make insane amounts of money.
I shall name call my new model of movie distribution, "The iPod That Exploded".
Originally posted by JCG
The format that will win is the one that the Porn industry adopts, unless it moves to internet delivery/download as a standard in which case it will be left to the movie studio's and rental industry to decide.
HAHA, that's funny. The porn industry still uses the most cheap crappy beta max cameras and crappy equipment to put a crappy quality video on a crappy quality DVD and VHS and you think they'll be the deciding factor in a format that would cost the porn industry millions to change over to? HAHAHA.
Porn will sell on the crappiest media, the porn industry will only spend money to extend profits and/or to make their process easier. They will not spend more money to make their movies better.
Seen many 16:9 anamorphic big booty sluts from Brazil DVDs with 5.1 DD surround sound? They won't go HD because they don't broadcast HD porn and DVDs can't handle the bandwidth. And once BRD and HD-DVD is out next year, you think these low tech and low key porn companies are going to spend thousands and thousands of dollars on new cameras? New software and new burners?
Playboy might, but they aren't what I consider porn.
It will come down to 1) movie releases and 2) cost and compatibility of equipment.
If Sony puts out their PS3 with BRD at $300-$400 and releases their entire collection while Toshiba uses buggy M$ software on their $1000+ player it's over.
If xBox and PS3 both have their format players under $500 it will come down to movie releases and to the first wave of players from Pioneer, JVC, Marantz, Denon etc and who they choose. The format with more movies and cheapest hardware will win regardless of what the hot blonde is doing with those 3 guys.
It will come down to 1) movie releases and 2) cost and compatibility of equipment.
If Sony puts out their PS3 with BRD at $300-$400 and releases their entire collection while Toshiba uses buggy M$ software on their $1000+ player it's over.
If xBox and PS3 both have their format players under $500 it will come down to movie releases and to the first wave of players from Pioneer, JVC, Marantz, Denon etc and who they choose. The format with more movies and cheapest hardware will win regardless of what the hot blonde is doing with those 3 guys.
The voice of reason, think god, finally!
I don't care technically which one wins - hm, I am not the Blue-ray fanboy that you think I am. I just see the chess pieces lined up, and I can tell who will win.
I just want you to enjoy the movies on your home theatre. we shouldn't be in the position to have to chose. The Entertainment industry is developing quite the poor track record consumer friendliness.
Originally posted by hmurchison
e1618978
I just want you to enjoy the movies on your home theatre. we shouldn't be in the position to have to chose. The Entertainment industry is developing quite the poor track record consumer friendliness.
But they are usually no match for teenage hackers. The PSP has just been cracked, so soon I will have a choice in cool web browsers and stuff that I can load on mine.
Uniform hardware is good if they can't keep it locked down.
I think that I also found a place that sells HDMI->DVI converters, which I will need to hook my PS3 to my VGA-only CRT projector. Heh heh heh...