I strongly disagree. Apple's stock dip this week was not about Google Video (which is a joke).
If you are implying this about me, you are wrong again.
On some things, yes. Not everything. Google is going through the "King Midas" period (where everything thing could possibly touch will turn to gold...so some think).
Ummm...in truth it has been bouncing back and forth over the past few years. That said...I'll bet the thing people identify with the Google brand is relatively limited (search).
I believe you are very, very wrong on this. There have a been a lot of reasons for Apple's current stock dip (oh...and Googles too BTW)...some ambiguity about Intel iMca sales, the Disney/Pixar deal and what it might mean for Steve Jobs to be on the Disney board, general technology sell-off, profit-taking, maybe even rumors of Microsoft getting into the digital music player business. Google, if it is anyof it, is an extremely small part of it.
BTW...don't make the mistake of assuming I am dismissing Google altogether...I just think your analysis and intepretation of current events and circumstances is wrong.
I don't know where you get your info, but mine was from the Times and the WSJ, as well as Forbes alerts that they send me throughout the day.
There has been a lot written about this, this week.
And, don't say that it's a joke. It may be a joke to you, but unless you control millions of Apple shares, it doesn't matter.
The "King Midas Touch", is the thing that everyone is talking about. I agree, and so do investors, that their video store, right now, isn't very good. That's not the problem. Even Google has acknowledged that. But, they can fix those problems.
The fear is that Goolgle is a very common destination for most people, while iTunes isn't. This could enable them to get a good deal of business.
Look, I'm not saying that it will happen. But, this is the talk going around in the investor community right now.
I know all about the other reasons for Apple's dip. I've enumerated them very clearly over the last two weeks, on this very site. But this is the reason for the last drop that occurred over the past few days.
Perception is the main driver behind market pricing. Apple is around a 30P/E right now, after the drop. Google is close to 100!!
Is Google worth a 100 P/E? I certainly don't think so. But others do.
I just don't think that Jobs is too smart to hold products and services back, if they are ready for market. I also don't think that he is too smart to hold back from discussing these services if they are almost ready. If he talked about a movies service (assuming that Apple is coming out with one as everyone seems to assume), then that would staunch the drop, and put everyone on notice that Apple isn't standing by.
If he plans to wait until April 1st to make some big announcements, as he strongly hinted at, then that's a big mistake. That's over 2 months away.
If he announced it now, it would be too soon for anyone else to come up with something else. It takes quite a while to put these things together.
Again, I'm NOT saying that Google will be successful with their video, and any music service that they might come up with, just that the investor community is concerned, right now, that they might.
Google is still the golden boy, because their lackluster announcements and sloppy thinking on their video store opening would've knocked 10 points off of Apple's stock. They will not be allowed to be that sloppy once their stock starts reflecting their true worth as an ad agency disguised as a search engine.
You see, I don't really care about what Google is worth. I'm not invested in them.
I'm just concerned about how the perception of any competition they may have with Apple's services will affect Apple's position.
Google is offering movies, with a download, AND a DVD. You buy the DVD and get a download first. Hmm! Will this go over well, if they get the problems ironed out?
I don't know.
But we keep hearing what Apple is "planning" to do. Leaks on their web site, etc. But nothing is announced. If they're planning a movie download service?announce it already!
Steal the thunder from Google.
Apple was the talk of CES. Expectations were high for Macworld. What happened?
I don't know where you get your info, but mine was from the Times and the WSJ, as well as Forbes alerts that they send me throughout the day.
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
And, don't say that it's a joke.
Google Video is a joke. Plus, I don't think they have the pieces that will be required for the whole game. Apple doesn't (publicly), but I expect it will soon.
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
The fear is that Goolgle is a very common destination for most people, while iTunes isn't. This could enable them to get a good deal of business.
Yes, that's the theory.
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
But this is the reason for the last drop that occurred over the past few days.
We disagree.
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
I just don't think that Jobs is too smart to hold products and services back, if they are ready for market.
No argument. But he's also smart enough not to release something before its ready. Which Google (in this example) has.
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
If he plans to wait until April 1st to make some big announcements, as he strongly hinted at, then that's a big mistake. That's over 2 months away.
Maybe. Maybe not. When you are running Apple as well as Steve and his team, I'll believe you. And what makes you assume it would be April 1? Sheesh.
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
Again, I'm NOT saying that Google will be successful with their video, and any music service that they might come up with, just that the investor community is concerned, right now, that they might.
Whatever.
Whatever Google does is "gold".
Look, I love Google. I think they have done (and are doing) some great things. But...it is an irrational love affair right now.
You see, I don't really care about what Google is worth. I'm not invested in them.
I'm just concerned about how the perception of any competition they may have with Apple's services will affect Apple's position.
Google is offering movies, with a download, AND a DVD. You buy the DVD and get a download first. Hmm! Will this go over well, if they get the problems ironed out?
I don't know.
But we keep hearing what Apple is "planning" to do. Leaks on their web site, etc. But nothing is announced. If they're planning a movie download service?announce it already!
Steal the thunder from Google.
Apple was the talk of CES. Expectations were high for Macworld. What happened?
Google has potency. Whether they will be able to deliver on their download service, executing, will show how much potency they have. They are riding high now. They are interesting. But they are not so close to my heart as Apple.
I am inclined to think that the Apple stock drop is more about profit taking, and a little reevaluation of Apple, for now. Apple still seems to be a darling of Wall Street. What I think is going on is that Apple will go down a bit, and then when Apple begins to further deliver on its video service, as well as other products, such as a media centre, then Wall Street will once again say "Look here, Apple is moving again." Then there will be another rise. So for those who have taken profit, I mean like any bigger investors, who seem to me to drive the market for their own good, will have sold at 86, then reinvested again at 72, or 70, or 65, or 60, or whatever it comes to, then they will ride the rocket ship again. That is typical Wall Street behaviour.
Google Video is a joke. Plus, I don't think they have the pieces that will be required for the whole game. Apple doesn't (publicly), but I expect it will soon.
Yes, that's the theory.
We disagree.
No argument. But he's also smart enough not to release something before its ready. Which Google (in this example) has.
Maybe. Maybe not. When you are running Apple as well as Steve and his team, I'll believe you. And what makes you assume it would be April 1? Sheesh.
Whatever.
Whatever Google does is "gold".
Look, I love Google. I think they have done (and are doing) some great things. But...it is an irrational love affair right now.
The theory is what matters right now.
I'm not going to spend any more time on this except to attach this one small article that is indicitive of what I'm saying.
I am inclined to think that the Apple stock drop is more about profit taking, and a little reevaluation of Apple, for now.
Exactly.
The profit taking after the Keynote and the hit the tech sector took on the 18th is what is effecting the stock right now - not one analysts' opinion about what Google may release in the future.
It'll be interesting to see how this turns out considering that it was impossible to download a simple html document from Amazon. Tried using both Mac and Win, several different browsers, they couldn't figure out how to get the document to me. I'm still waiting for the refund to show up on my CC.
The profit taking after the Keynote and the hit the tech sector took on the 18th is what is effecting the stock right now - not one analysts' opinion about what Google may release in the future.
You guys don't pay attention to what's being said, do you?
The "King Midas Touch", is the thing that everyone is talking about. I agree, and so do investors, that their video store, right now, isn't very good. That's not the problem. Even Google has acknowledged that. But, they can fix those problems.
***The fear is that Goolgle is a very common destination for most people, while iTunes isn't. This could enable them to get a good deal of business.***
Look, I'm not saying that it will happen. But, this is the talk going around in the investor community right now.
I know all about the other reasons for Apple's dip. I've enumerated them very clearly over the last two weeks
Is Google worth a 100 P/E? I certainly don't think so. But others do.
If he plans to wait until April 1st to make some big announcements, as he strongly hinted at, then that's a big mistake. That's over 2 months away.
Again, I'm NOT saying that Google will be successful with their video, and any music service that they might come up with, just that the investor community is concerned, right now, that they might. [/B]
Good point, in the stars. We realise that you read and think, Mr. Mel.
I pay a good deal of attention to what I read, on a variety of sites. Hard to keep track of all the sites, but the gist of things gets through.
So far as my thoughts go, I was wondering when Apple may go down for a spell, due to profit taking, partly, and just due to market behaviour. Wall Street likes to go in cycles. I said to a friend of mine who invests that I was waiting for Apple to go down a bit, for profit taking. There can be many reasons that are given for this behaviour. Google is certainly a potential factor, and the possibility of them executing can be a real consideration, like your comment states, theirs is a trafficked site. I think it more depends on the money to be made by large investors. If Apple goes down a little more, and then comes out with more ripened fruit, then the 'street' can say, "Look at Apple now. They are delivering." A rise happens. If Apple goes from 72 back up to 85, it is an 18% increase. That is mighty good return. If Apple comes out with a plan and action for their video store, then they could rise to 103, as Piper Jaffray(I believe) predict. These analysts thoughts really are projected for the coming year or two, we are just in a short term flux. Providing that Apple delivers much of what we hear they are working on.
Good point, in the stars. We realise that you read and think, Mr. Mel.
I pay a good deal of attention to what I read, on a variety of sites. Hard to keep track of all the sites, but the gist of things gets through.
So far as my thoughts go, I was wondering when Apple may go down for a spell, due to profit taking, partly, and just due to market behaviour. Wall Street likes to go in cycles. I said to a friend of mine who invests that I was waiting for Apple to go down a bit, for profit taking. There can be many reasons that are given for this behaviour. Google is certainly a potential factor, and the possibility of them executing can be a real consideration, like your comment states, theirs is a trafficked site. I think it more depends on the money to be made by large investors. If Apple goes down a little more, and then comes out with more ripened fruit, then the 'street' can say, "Look at Apple now. They are delivering." A rise happens. If Apple goes from 72 back up to 85, it is an 18% increase. That is mighty good return. If Apple comes out with a plan and action for their video store, then they could rise to 103, as Piper Jaffray(I believe) predict. These analysts thoughts really are projected for the coming year or two, we are just in a short term flux. Providing that Apple delivers much of what we hear they are working on.
Also, as I've said before, this has been an unfortunate confluence of events for Apple. Apple's low guidance started the dip, then, everything else that happened, one, two, three, after that, kept on adding to it. The Google story is simply the latest event to effect it.
The problem here it that things become self perpetuating. I truly believe that if Apple hadn't given such low guidance, most of this slip would not have occurred. I don't think it was profit taking this time as much it was fear that Apple's own predictions were poor. Everything else that followed just made investors more nervous.
Here's another article about it, to show what I mean:
Investors are motivated by two things, greed, and fear. Apple's stock going up is the result of the greed, Apple's stock going down is the result of the fear.
Also, as I've said before, this has been an unfortunate confluence of events for Apple. Apple's low guidance started the dip, then, everything else that happened, one, two, three, after that, kept on adding to it. The Google story is simply the latest event to effect it.
The problem here it that things become self perpetuating. I truly believe that if Apple hadn't given such low guidance, most of this slip would not have occurred. I don't think it was profit taking this time as much it was fear that Apple's own predictions were poor. Everything else that followed just made investors more nervous.
Here's another article about it, to show what I mean:
Investors are motivated by two things, greed, and fear. Apple's stock going up is the result of the greed, Apple's stock going down is the result of the fear.
Wall Street goes in such binges, and a healthy company is no indication that their stock will rise much. I used to think that fundamentals were so important, and they are, businesswise, and so too is it for any long term growth. But the elves, and their observations on the market behaviour, some times have a more accurate view of what happens.
550$ for Google stock?
I have more liking for Amazon, to get back to them, than toward Google. Amazon has a real delivery arm set up. But then, I really buy more books from a small couple owned book store than I do Amazon, too.
Has anybody SEEN Google Video? So far, it bites the big one. I mean, really. The Google interface is great as a search engine. Google/ig is fine. The idea of searching for video and coming up with movies containing that dialogue? Fine. The store as it exists? It sucks, bad. First of all, for Mac users, there's the widespread use of Windows DRM, which leaves us out entirely. Then there's the cruddy video quality. It just doesn't have the magic and polish that Google has given to many of its products. Maybe they'll hit their stride in six months or so, but so far? No problem for Apple.
Comments
Originally posted by Chris Cuilla
I strongly disagree. Apple's stock dip this week was not about Google Video (which is a joke).
If you are implying this about me, you are wrong again.
On some things, yes. Not everything. Google is going through the "King Midas" period (where everything thing could possibly touch will turn to gold...so some think).
Ummm...in truth it has been bouncing back and forth over the past few years. That said...I'll bet the thing people identify with the Google brand is relatively limited (search).
I believe you are very, very wrong on this. There have a been a lot of reasons for Apple's current stock dip (oh...and Googles too BTW)...some ambiguity about Intel iMca sales, the Disney/Pixar deal and what it might mean for Steve Jobs to be on the Disney board, general technology sell-off, profit-taking, maybe even rumors of Microsoft getting into the digital music player business. Google, if it is anyof it, is an extremely small part of it.
BTW...don't make the mistake of assuming I am dismissing Google altogether...I just think your analysis and intepretation of current events and circumstances is wrong.
I don't know where you get your info, but mine was from the Times and the WSJ, as well as Forbes alerts that they send me throughout the day.
There has been a lot written about this, this week.
And, don't say that it's a joke. It may be a joke to you, but unless you control millions of Apple shares, it doesn't matter.
The "King Midas Touch", is the thing that everyone is talking about. I agree, and so do investors, that their video store, right now, isn't very good. That's not the problem. Even Google has acknowledged that. But, they can fix those problems.
The fear is that Goolgle is a very common destination for most people, while iTunes isn't. This could enable them to get a good deal of business.
Look, I'm not saying that it will happen. But, this is the talk going around in the investor community right now.
I know all about the other reasons for Apple's dip. I've enumerated them very clearly over the last two weeks, on this very site. But this is the reason for the last drop that occurred over the past few days.
Perception is the main driver behind market pricing. Apple is around a 30P/E right now, after the drop. Google is close to 100!!
Is Google worth a 100 P/E? I certainly don't think so. But others do.
I just don't think that Jobs is too smart to hold products and services back, if they are ready for market. I also don't think that he is too smart to hold back from discussing these services if they are almost ready. If he talked about a movies service (assuming that Apple is coming out with one as everyone seems to assume), then that would staunch the drop, and put everyone on notice that Apple isn't standing by.
If he plans to wait until April 1st to make some big announcements, as he strongly hinted at, then that's a big mistake. That's over 2 months away.
If he announced it now, it would be too soon for anyone else to come up with something else. It takes quite a while to put these things together.
Again, I'm NOT saying that Google will be successful with their video, and any music service that they might come up with, just that the investor community is concerned, right now, that they might.
Originally posted by SpamSandwich
Google is still the golden boy, because their lackluster announcements and sloppy thinking on their video store opening would've knocked 10 points off of Apple's stock. They will not be allowed to be that sloppy once their stock starts reflecting their true worth as an ad agency disguised as a search engine.
You see, I don't really care about what Google is worth. I'm not invested in them.
I'm just concerned about how the perception of any competition they may have with Apple's services will affect Apple's position.
Google is offering movies, with a download, AND a DVD. You buy the DVD and get a download first. Hmm! Will this go over well, if they get the problems ironed out?
I don't know.
But we keep hearing what Apple is "planning" to do. Leaks on their web site, etc. But nothing is announced. If they're planning a movie download service?announce it already!
Steal the thunder from Google.
Apple was the talk of CES. Expectations were high for Macworld. What happened?
Originally posted by melgross
I don't know where you get your info, but mine was from the Times and the WSJ, as well as Forbes alerts that they send me throughout the day.
Originally posted by melgross
And, don't say that it's a joke.
Google Video is a joke. Plus, I don't think they have the pieces that will be required for the whole game. Apple doesn't (publicly), but I expect it will soon.
Originally posted by melgross
The fear is that Goolgle is a very common destination for most people, while iTunes isn't. This could enable them to get a good deal of business.
Yes, that's the theory.
Originally posted by melgross
But this is the reason for the last drop that occurred over the past few days.
We disagree.
Originally posted by melgross
I just don't think that Jobs is too smart to hold products and services back, if they are ready for market.
No argument. But he's also smart enough not to release something before its ready. Which Google (in this example) has.
Originally posted by melgross
If he plans to wait until April 1st to make some big announcements, as he strongly hinted at, then that's a big mistake. That's over 2 months away.
Maybe. Maybe not. When you are running Apple as well as Steve and his team, I'll believe you. And what makes you assume it would be April 1? Sheesh.
Originally posted by melgross
Again, I'm NOT saying that Google will be successful with their video, and any music service that they might come up with, just that the investor community is concerned, right now, that they might.
Whatever.
Whatever Google does is "gold".
Look, I love Google. I think they have done (and are doing) some great things. But...it is an irrational love affair right now.
Originally posted by melgross
You see, I don't really care about what Google is worth. I'm not invested in them.
I'm just concerned about how the perception of any competition they may have with Apple's services will affect Apple's position.
Google is offering movies, with a download, AND a DVD. You buy the DVD and get a download first. Hmm! Will this go over well, if they get the problems ironed out?
I don't know.
But we keep hearing what Apple is "planning" to do. Leaks on their web site, etc. But nothing is announced. If they're planning a movie download service?announce it already!
Steal the thunder from Google.
Apple was the talk of CES. Expectations were high for Macworld. What happened?
Google has potency. Whether they will be able to deliver on their download service, executing, will show how much potency they have. They are riding high now. They are interesting. But they are not so close to my heart as Apple.
I am inclined to think that the Apple stock drop is more about profit taking, and a little reevaluation of Apple, for now. Apple still seems to be a darling of Wall Street. What I think is going on is that Apple will go down a bit, and then when Apple begins to further deliver on its video service, as well as other products, such as a media centre, then Wall Street will once again say "Look here, Apple is moving again." Then there will be another rise. So for those who have taken profit, I mean like any bigger investors, who seem to me to drive the market for their own good, will have sold at 86, then reinvested again at 72, or 70, or 65, or 60, or whatever it comes to, then they will ride the rocket ship again. That is typical Wall Street behaviour.
Originally posted by Chris Cuilla
Google Video is a joke. Plus, I don't think they have the pieces that will be required for the whole game. Apple doesn't (publicly), but I expect it will soon.
Yes, that's the theory.
We disagree.
No argument. But he's also smart enough not to release something before its ready. Which Google (in this example) has.
Maybe. Maybe not. When you are running Apple as well as Steve and his team, I'll believe you. And what makes you assume it would be April 1? Sheesh.
Whatever.
Whatever Google does is "gold".
Look, I love Google. I think they have done (and are doing) some great things. But...it is an irrational love affair right now.
The theory is what matters right now.
I'm not going to spend any more time on this except to attach this one small article that is indicitive of what I'm saying.
Say what you want afterwards.
http://www.macnewsworld.com/story/6v...at-Apple.xhtml
Originally posted by melgross
I'm not going to spend any more time on this except to attach this one small article that is indicitive of what I'm saying.
Say what you want afterwards.
http://www.macnewsworld.com/story/6v...at-Apple.xhtml
Originally posted by NordicMan
I am inclined to think that the Apple stock drop is more about profit taking, and a little reevaluation of Apple, for now.
Exactly.
The profit taking after the Keynote and the hit the tech sector took on the 18th is what is effecting the stock right now - not one analysts' opinion about what Google may release in the future.
Originally posted by Cake
Exactly.
The profit taking after the Keynote and the hit the tech sector took on the 18th is what is effecting the stock right now - not one analysts' opinion about what Google may release in the future.
You guys don't pay attention to what's being said, do you?
You or one guy?
Either one is not relevant regarding the movement of AAPL.
Originally posted by melgross
[
The "King Midas Touch", is the thing that everyone is talking about. I agree, and so do investors, that their video store, right now, isn't very good. That's not the problem. Even Google has acknowledged that. But, they can fix those problems.
***The fear is that Goolgle is a very common destination for most people, while iTunes isn't. This could enable them to get a good deal of business.***
Look, I'm not saying that it will happen. But, this is the talk going around in the investor community right now.
I know all about the other reasons for Apple's dip. I've enumerated them very clearly over the last two weeks
Is Google worth a 100 P/E? I certainly don't think so. But others do.
If he plans to wait until April 1st to make some big announcements, as he strongly hinted at, then that's a big mistake. That's over 2 months away.
Again, I'm NOT saying that Google will be successful with their video, and any music service that they might come up with, just that the investor community is concerned, right now, that they might. [/B]
Good point, in the stars. We realise that you read and think, Mr. Mel.
I pay a good deal of attention to what I read, on a variety of sites. Hard to keep track of all the sites, but the gist of things gets through.
So far as my thoughts go, I was wondering when Apple may go down for a spell, due to profit taking, partly, and just due to market behaviour. Wall Street likes to go in cycles. I said to a friend of mine who invests that I was waiting for Apple to go down a bit, for profit taking. There can be many reasons that are given for this behaviour. Google is certainly a potential factor, and the possibility of them executing can be a real consideration, like your comment states, theirs is a trafficked site. I think it more depends on the money to be made by large investors. If Apple goes down a little more, and then comes out with more ripened fruit, then the 'street' can say, "Look at Apple now. They are delivering." A rise happens. If Apple goes from 72 back up to 85, it is an 18% increase. That is mighty good return. If Apple comes out with a plan and action for their video store, then they could rise to 103, as Piper Jaffray(I believe) predict. These analysts thoughts really are projected for the coming year or two, we are just in a short term flux. Providing that Apple delivers much of what we hear they are working on.
Originally posted by Cake
Don't pay attention to what's being said by whom?
You or one guy?
Either one is not relevant regarding the movement of AAPL.
Because without reading through the posts, you get the impression that something is being said that isn't being said.
Originally posted by NordicMan
Good point, in the stars. We realise that you read and think, Mr. Mel.
I pay a good deal of attention to what I read, on a variety of sites. Hard to keep track of all the sites, but the gist of things gets through.
So far as my thoughts go, I was wondering when Apple may go down for a spell, due to profit taking, partly, and just due to market behaviour. Wall Street likes to go in cycles. I said to a friend of mine who invests that I was waiting for Apple to go down a bit, for profit taking. There can be many reasons that are given for this behaviour. Google is certainly a potential factor, and the possibility of them executing can be a real consideration, like your comment states, theirs is a trafficked site. I think it more depends on the money to be made by large investors. If Apple goes down a little more, and then comes out with more ripened fruit, then the 'street' can say, "Look at Apple now. They are delivering." A rise happens. If Apple goes from 72 back up to 85, it is an 18% increase. That is mighty good return. If Apple comes out with a plan and action for their video store, then they could rise to 103, as Piper Jaffray(I believe) predict. These analysts thoughts really are projected for the coming year or two, we are just in a short term flux. Providing that Apple delivers much of what we hear they are working on.
Also, as I've said before, this has been an unfortunate confluence of events for Apple. Apple's low guidance started the dip, then, everything else that happened, one, two, three, after that, kept on adding to it. The Google story is simply the latest event to effect it.
The problem here it that things become self perpetuating. I truly believe that if Apple hadn't given such low guidance, most of this slip would not have occurred. I don't think it was profit taking this time as much it was fear that Apple's own predictions were poor. Everything else that followed just made investors more nervous.
Here's another article about it, to show what I mean:
http://www.forbes.com/2006/01/26/goo...partner=alerts
Investors are motivated by two things, greed, and fear. Apple's stock going up is the result of the greed, Apple's stock going down is the result of the fear.
Originally posted by melgross
Also, as I've said before, this has been an unfortunate confluence of events for Apple. Apple's low guidance started the dip, then, everything else that happened, one, two, three, after that, kept on adding to it. The Google story is simply the latest event to effect it.
The problem here it that things become self perpetuating. I truly believe that if Apple hadn't given such low guidance, most of this slip would not have occurred. I don't think it was profit taking this time as much it was fear that Apple's own predictions were poor. Everything else that followed just made investors more nervous.
Here's another article about it, to show what I mean:
http://www.forbes.com/2006/01/26/goo...partner=alerts
Investors are motivated by two things, greed, and fear. Apple's stock going up is the result of the greed, Apple's stock going down is the result of the fear.
Wall Street goes in such binges, and a healthy company is no indication that their stock will rise much. I used to think that fundamentals were so important, and they are, businesswise, and so too is it for any long term growth. But the elves, and their observations on the market behaviour, some times have a more accurate view of what happens.
550$ for Google stock?
I have more liking for Amazon, to get back to them, than toward Google. Amazon has a real delivery arm set up. But then, I really buy more books from a small couple owned book store than I do Amazon, too.