Apple to ship 10 million Macs in 2006?

2

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 42
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,606member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by sunilraman

    Dual boot Windows XPee and Mac OS X please please please please please ... Is there a petition going on this somewhere?



    I read "all apple has to do" is enable "backward-BIOS-compatibility" in the EFI or something like that.



    If they do that, my stab in the dark is that they will boost sales of all their Intel Macs by at least 20%.




    While I've had my disagreements with Charlie from the Inquirer, his analysis is usually pretty good. I don't agree with his tone here, blaming Apple in the snarky the British seem to like to do, and I've mailed him about it, the article is correct in it's technical areas.



    It's worth a read.



    http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=29710



    We correspond often. My e-mail to him, and his response (actually, his response is on top):



    Actually, I know they don't need them. The problem is that they also know that XP will never run, but steadfastly refuse to say that. You could say the same thing about the PPC macs, they did nothing to prevent XP from running on those. They also did nothing to prevent most of the major disasters in the world.



    Basically, they are being really sleazy in their PR, and I am calling them on it.



    [email protected] wrote:

    Charlie, have you thought about the fact that the Mac simply doesn't NEED any of these modules?



    Why should Apple put software into its machines that it doesn't need, and then have to support it as well?



    MS could, if it wanted to, write, or more likely, modify, these modules itself, assuming that it doesn't have enough similar work already up and running, if it really wanted to sell copies of XP to Mac users. They must have at least 20 programmers to every one that Apple has. You might as well blame them for not moving forward quickly on VPC for these machine as well as Apple for not handing people the necessary code on a platter.



    This article is really unfair. Apple DID say that they wouldn't PREVENT people from running Windows on these machines.



    They also made it QUITE clear that they wouldn't be doing anything to HELP them run it.



    Apple isn't hiding anything here. All the documentation is available from them as to what's in the machines, both hardware, and software.



    After all, it's up to those interested in running the OS's to do what has to be done. It isn't up to Apple to give them the means.



    A little balance would be nice. A few sentences added to the article would be fair.



    Best regards, Mel.
  • Reply 22 of 42
    rickagrickag Posts: 1,626member
    Some encouraging news can be see HERE



    Quote from the article

    Quote:

    Don Mayer, CEO of Small Dog Electronics, an Apple products retailer in Waitsfield, Vt., says the Intel-based machines outsell iMacs based on G5 chips from IBM (IBM) by five to one. In fact, Intel-based iMacs are selling out quicker than the iMac G5 desktop did when it came out last October, he says. "As fast as they are coming in, [iMacs with Intel chips] are going out," Mayer says. "There's significantly more demand for the iMac now that it has the Intel processor."



    10 million? I don't know about that, but sales may be higher than many of the projections currently making the rounds on the web.
  • Reply 23 of 42
    louzerlouzer Posts: 1,054member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by rickag

    Some encouraging news can be see



    Quote from the article

    Don Mayer, CEO of Small Dog Electronics, an Apple products retailer in Waitsfield, Vt., says the Intel-based machines outsell iMacs based on G5 chips from IBM (IBM) by five to one. In fact, Intel-based iMacs are selling out quicker than the iMac G5 desktop did when it came out last October, he says. "As fast as they are coming in, [iMacs with Intel chips] are going out," Mayer says. "There's significantly more demand for the iMac now that it has the Intel processor."



    10 million? I don't know about that, but sales may be higher than many of the projections currently making the rounds on the web.




    Well, since the new iMac wasn't much more than what the previous iMac was, so there wasn't much of a need to just dump iMac G5 for same iMac G5. Plus, less and less people were likely to buy iMacs at the end of the year as they waited for the new intel ones.



    The real question is sustainability.
  • Reply 24 of 42
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,606member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Louzer

    Well, since the new iMac wasn't much more than what the previous iMac was, so there wasn't much of a need to just dump iMac G5 for same iMac G5. Plus, less and less people were likely to buy iMacs at the end of the year as they waited for the new intel ones.



    The real question is sustainability.




    I'm hoping that with all of the really good reviews it's receiving around the country (and outside it as well) that won't be a problem. When we see the reviews that are in newspapers, regarded as a somewhat neutral source of computer info., we can hope that general computer buyers will be more likely to consider them.
  • Reply 25 of 42
    rageousrageous Posts: 2,170member
    you guys are forgetting the nuclear option:













    the Apple HDTV with built-in Mac!



    Apple sales hit 50M in '06. YOu heard it hear first. Expect to see it posted on Think Secret s0000000000n!!!!!11oneone
  • Reply 26 of 42
    They have succesfully duel-booted linux on it, and the beta version of Vista DOES suppot EFI or w/e it is...just saw the linux thing http://www.macnn.com/ (i think)



    http://www.macnn.com/articles/06/02/....210.released/



    correct me if im wrong, but does it say in there that they have ran windows inside OSX window...on an intel mac?
  • Reply 27 of 42
    Quote:

    Originally posted by rageous

    you guys are forgetting the nuclear option:



    the Apple HDTV with built-in Mac!



    Apple sales hit 50M in '06. YOu heard it hear first. Expect to see it posted on Think Secret s0000000000n!!!!!11oneone






    ah, a homage of sorts to Rolo
  • Reply 28 of 42
    YES. appears to successfully boot Linux on Intel Mac.

    http://www.macnn.com/articles/06/02/...imac.core.duo/



    Next: XP or Vista
  • Reply 29 of 42
    vinney57vinney57 Posts: 1,162member
    The Mighty Melgross speaks! .... and we are all humbled...
  • Reply 30 of 42
    OpenOSX runs windows inside a window already.
  • Reply 31 of 42
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,606member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by vinney57

    The Mighty Melgross speaks! .... and we are all humbled...



    Wow Vinney, that was a brilliant post!



    Did I insult you?
  • Reply 32 of 42
    Quote:

    Originally posted by mikenap

    this speculation of such huge sales forcast makes me wonder if the manufactureres know something of a new product release (like the mythical mini dvr or whatever) that could spur massive sales? These companies are pretty savy on there production estimates i'd assume, so mabe theres more to this than just the increase in sales from the Intel switch. Any thoughts?



    These numbers, in the past, have come from Apple telling their third party manufactureres what to expect to ship. Apple cannot just tell them to make computers on a 1,000 or a 10,000 basis. Apple must be able to predict what sales could be so that the Chinese have some idea of what to expect. For example if it takes them 6 weeks to train a new line worker, and then another 3 months of steady work for them to be kicking out HQ product 8/5, then Apple muct tell them what they think they can expect so they can hire workers now for the heavy work loads later. Apple has also begun to talk openly about the halo effect, something they did not do early on. Apple has also said that they think that they can see the halo effect taking hold. This could be huge numbers here. More than the usual Mac heads rolling over to new kit, but add in an increasing number of converts, and then an equal number to the two previous numbers in halo effect. Gee, how many iPods and the like are there on the market? What percent is halo 5%?? 10%??, either are huge numbers that is equal to the number of macs normally sold. I think that the last tiime I heard anything from Apple was very early in the iPod life and that number was like 5% or close to that, but at that time there were not that many iPods being sold so Apple did not want to talk about numbers that were difficult enough to track. Now there are huge numbers of iPod owners and any halo effect could be big numbers for Apple.
  • Reply 33 of 42
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,606member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Brendon

    These numbers, in the past, have come from Apple telling their third party manufactureres what to expect to ship. Apple cannot just tell them to make computers on a 1,000 or a 10,000 basis. Apple must be able to predict what sales could be so that the Chinese have some idea of what to expect. For example if it takes them 6 weeks to train a new line worker, and then another 3 months of steady work for them to be kicking out HQ product 8/5, then Apple muct tell them what they think they can expect so they can hire workers now for the heavy work loads later. Apple has also begun to talk openly about the halo effect, something they did not do early on. Apple has also said that they think that they can see the halo effect taking hold. This could be huge numbers here. More than the usual Mac heads rolling over to new kit, but add in an increasing number of converts, and then an equal number to the two previous numbers in halo effect. Gee, how many iPods and the like are there on the market? What percent is halo 5%?? 10%??, either are huge numbers that is equal to the number of macs normally sold. I think that the last tiime I heard anything from Apple was very early in the iPod life and that number was like 5% or close to that, but at that time there were not that many iPods being sold so Apple did not want to talk about numbers that were difficult enough to track. Now there are huge numbers of iPod owners and any halo effect could be big numbers for Apple.



    That's true, but this is such a big number that it makes one wonder if it is real. The most outsized number I've seen from a reliable source, so far, was 8.6 million, and that seemed way out of line. Other estimates I've seen are as low as 5.75 million.



    We'll see what happens this quarter. most analysts (who also talk to the suppliers) have lowered their estimates.



    Apple's low guidance for this quarter surprised everyone. If they don't seem to think the sales are up drastically, why should we? It's true that they are conservative, but now we're talking an average of 2.5 million machines per quarter. The first quarter is already gone, with about 1.250 million machines sold. This quarter seems to be lower by possibly as much as 200 thousand.



    So, that means the first two quarters of the year might total 2.250-2.350 million machines.



    That would leave the last two quarters of the year to give about 7.7 million sales. That's about 3.85 million machines a quarter!



    Assuming that the next quarter, the April-June quarter, won't suddenly triple the sales of this quarter, but does jump to 2 million, by far, more than Apple has ever sold any quarter, that would leave the back-to school July-September quarter selling 5.7 million machines, over a million more than Apple sold all next year!



    I would love to see it, but I just don't believe it. I can't see that much of a ramp up. 5.7 million machines is half of what Dell sells in a quarter. I'm not even sure that Apple could get all the chips.



    If we are all floored by vastly improved sales this quarter that total upwards of 1.5 million units, then I would think that there is a chance to sell 8 million this year. But, just a chance. If sales are close to 2 million, then I can see a possibility of over 8 million. But it's slim.
  • Reply 34 of 42
    backtomacbacktomac Posts: 4,579member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by melgross

    That's true, but this is such a big number that it makes one wonder if it is real. The most outsized number I've seen from a reliable source, so far, was 8.6 million, and that seemed way out of line. Other estimates I've seen are as low as 5.75 million.



    We'll see what happens this quarter. most analysts (who also talk to the suppliers) have lowered their estimates.



    Apple's low guidance for this quarter surprised everyone. If they don't seem to think the sales are up drastically, why should we? It's true that they are conservative, but now we're talking an average of 2.5 million machines per quarter. The first quarter is already gone, with about 1.250 million machines sold. This quarter seems to be lower by possibly as much as 200 thousand.



    So, that means the first two quarters of the year might total 2.250-2.350 million machines.



    That would leave the last two quarters of the year to give about 7.7 million sales. That's about 3.85 million machines a quarter!



    Assuming that the next quarter, the April-June quarter, won't suddenly triple the sales of this quarter, but does jump to 2 million, by far, more than Apple has ever sold any quarter, that would leave the back-to school July-September quarter selling 5.7 million machines, over a million more than Apple sold all next year!



    I would love to see it, but I just don't believe it. I can't see that much of a ramp up. 5.7 million machines is half of what Dell sells in a quarter. I'm not even sure that Apple could get all the chips.



    If we are all floored by vastly improved sales this quarter that total upwards of 1.5 million units, then I would think that there is a chance to sell 8 million this year. But, just a chance. If sales are close to 2 million, then I can see a possibility of over 8 million. But it's slim.






    For what its worth, I was in an Apple store this past weekend and it had the largest crowd I've ever seen in an Apple store. I believe there is considerable pent-up demand but how much remains to be seen.
  • Reply 35 of 42
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,606member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by backtomac

    For what its worth, I was in an Apple store this past weekend and it had the largest crowd I've ever seen in an Apple store. I believe there is considerable pent-up demand but how much remains to be seen.



    You can't just look at the crowds. You have to stay a while and look at the lines at the counters, and see what people are buying.



    Just like any other stores, most people come to browse.
  • Reply 36 of 42
    Quote:

    Originally posted by melgross

    You can't just look at the crowds. You have to stay a while and look at the lines at the counters, and see what people are buying.



    Just like any other stores, most people come to browse.




    True. Most seemed to be looking at computers and not just iPods. I was hoping to catch a glimpse of a new Macbook Pro but they hadn't arrived yet. Surprising to me, many were looking at powerbooks. Seems to me that the old powerbooks look unappealing when the new macbook pros arrive. Maybe its just me.
  • Reply 37 of 42
    Quote:

    Originally posted by melgross

    You can't just look at the crowds. You have to stay a while and look at the lines at the counters, and see what people are buying.



    Just like any other stores, most people come to browse.




    At the store here in Indy the line to the counter is always at least two lines five deep. My Cube bit the dust or at least the graphics card did so I went to get an iMac and was surprised at the long lines. When I got the computer I forgot about the printer for free deal and had to go back. Not wanting to stand in line forever I arrived before opening and waited, I was browsing at another store when Apple opened but I was only 5 or 10 minutes late. The line again was two lines five deep and the store was full, I mean full. I got the Epson stylus CX4200, one of those do everythings. Before getting hung up on the big numbers, think about how many iPods and the like there are on the market, 5% halo effect would be more than enough for Apple to make its numbers. Demand is pent up for us Mac users. My guess is that the first quarter was mostly switchers that were not paying attention to Apple HW., us Mac heads though were paying attention to and waiting for the Intel processors and to see how they ran. The pent up demand could be seen over the last year to two years in lagging Mac sales. You could see it we were all there, iPods and the like saved the day for AAPL. Now we are begining to see the halo effect of the biggest iPod year or years(2) of them all.



    Oh yea I almost forgot, what would it take for everyone to buy a MacMini? 7200rpm HD and a Core Duo processor? Just about every livingroom would have one. That is the big volume item that is waiting for an update.
  • Reply 38 of 42
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,606member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Brendon

    At the store here in Indy the line to the counter is always at least two lines five deep. My Cube bit the dust or at least the graphics card did so I went to get an iMac and was surprised at the long lines. When I got the computer I forgot about the printer for free deal and had to go back. Not wanting to stand in line forever I arrived before opening and waited, I was browsing at another store when Apple opened but I was only 5 or 10 minutes late. The line again was two lines five deep and the store was full, I mean full. I got the Epson stylus CX4200, one of those do everythings. Before getting hung up on the big numbers, think about how many iPods and the like there are on the market, 5% halo effect would be more than enough for Apple to make its numbers. Demand is pent up for us Mac users. My guess is that the first quarter was mostly switchers that were not paying attention to Apple HW., us Mac heads though were paying attention to and waiting for the Intel processors and to see how they ran. The pent up demand could be seen over the last year to two years in lagging Mac sales. You could see it we were all there, iPods and the like saved the day for AAPL. Now we are begining to see the halo effect of the biggest iPod year or years(2) of them all.



    Oh yea I almost forgot, what would it take for everyone to buy a MacMini? 7200rpm HD and a Core Duo processor? Just about every livingroom would have one. That is the big volume item that is waiting for an update.




    The SoHo store here in NYC is also crazy crowded. The lines are also deep. Four counters on the main floor. Then they added two more on the second floor for iPods and accessories. Then they added two or three more on the second floor (I forget which) across from the iPod counter.



    The 25,000 Sq. ft store to open in May in the GM plaza will be open 24/7.



    I hope they will be selling more computers, and not mostly iPods and accessories.
  • Reply 39 of 42
    Originally posted by melgross

    The SoHo store here in NYC is also crazy crowded.....The 25,000 Sq. ft store to open in May in the GM plaza will be open 24/7.....I hope they will be selling more computers, and not mostly iPods and accessories.






    hey i just read about that somewhere else. 24/7 Apple Store in NYC. Whoa Melgross' 2nd home?
  • Reply 40 of 42
    Originally posted by backtomac

    .....Surprising to me, many were looking at powerbooks. Seems to me that the old powerbooks look unappealing when the new macbook pros arrive. Maybe its just me.






    Unless one owns a Mac or is following Mac news closely most people in the Apple Store are kind of like, "Whoa, what's this stuff?? What is Mac?? Weird, I haven't heard of Intel Core Duo, only Pentium 4"...
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