Apple to report 2nd best quarter in company history?
After a round of checks with its industry and channel sources, analysts for American Technology Research said they believe Apple later this month will post the second best quarterly results in the company's 30-year history, exceeding its own guidance of $4.3 billion in revenue and 38 cents in earnings per share.
"Specifically, we are modeling $4.4 billion, 43 cents and 8.8 million iPods versus consensus of $4.6 billion and 44 cents," analyst Shaw Wu told clients in a research note issued on Tuesday. "For the June quarter, we continue to believe Apple will guide conservatively reflecting efforts to reduce inventory of PowerPC Macs and older iPod nanos."
The analyst is modeling for the June (current) quarter $4.4 billion, 44 cents and 8.5 million iPods versus the Street's consensus of $4.7 billion and 48 cents. "We believe consensus revenue estimates remain unrealistically high and believe Apple will likely make another attempt to reset expectations," Wu wrote. "Given the recent 16 percent run-up in Apple shares, we would not be surprised to see a pullback post-print."
Nevertheless, the analyst said he'd remain a buyer on weakness and believes the company is well-positioned to deliver upside with strong second half seasonality and product momentum, including new low-cost Intel portables and changes in its iPod line-up.
American Technology Research maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple shares with a price target of $101.00.
"Specifically, we are modeling $4.4 billion, 43 cents and 8.8 million iPods versus consensus of $4.6 billion and 44 cents," analyst Shaw Wu told clients in a research note issued on Tuesday. "For the June quarter, we continue to believe Apple will guide conservatively reflecting efforts to reduce inventory of PowerPC Macs and older iPod nanos."
The analyst is modeling for the June (current) quarter $4.4 billion, 44 cents and 8.5 million iPods versus the Street's consensus of $4.7 billion and 48 cents. "We believe consensus revenue estimates remain unrealistically high and believe Apple will likely make another attempt to reset expectations," Wu wrote. "Given the recent 16 percent run-up in Apple shares, we would not be surprised to see a pullback post-print."
Nevertheless, the analyst said he'd remain a buyer on weakness and believes the company is well-positioned to deliver upside with strong second half seasonality and product momentum, including new low-cost Intel portables and changes in its iPod line-up.
American Technology Research maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple shares with a price target of $101.00.
Comments
With CS3 and Intel PowerMac equivalents far off the pro market seems stagnant. Or growth levels being status quo
The next 6-12 months will be critical for Apple to deliver profit growth via primarily the consumer channels (Macbook, iMac, Mac mini, new(?) iPods).
Several critical junctures are up for analysis.
1. April reporting of Jan-Mar '06 revenue and profit
2. July reporting of April-June '06 revenue and profit
3. Mac OSX Leopard in August '06 WWDC
4. Clarification at/by WWDC on what the hell the Windows dual-boot and possibly virtualisation is all about
5. Towards the end of the year - Intel PowerMac equivalents for running Final Cut Studio, Logic and Rosetta'ed or virtualised CS2/Macromedia
Stevie J has to hit all the right notes IMHO on the above 5 critical points for AAPL to be in the high $90s by the end of the year. In the mid-term (6-8 months) I predict AAPL flirting with the $70s, maybe low $80s, with some sliding back to high $60s given the Intel/ new product transitions... 8)
My brother got in on $62 so that's probably a good baseline to move upwards from, but again, like I said above, it will be gradual as the market needs more clarification on what Apple's plans really are.
Originally posted by sunilraman
There's too much backwash from the Intel transition and now BootCamp. It's thrown the market into a bit of wait-and-see attitude, I think.
With CS3 and Intel PowerMac equivalents far off the pro market seems stagnant. Or growth levels being status quo
The next 6-12 months will be critical for Apple to deliver profit growth via primarily the consumer channels (Macbook, iMac, Mac mini, new(?) iPods).
Several critical junctures are up for analysis.
1. April reporting of Jan-Mar '06 revenue and profit
2. July reporting of April-June '06 revenue and profit
3. Mac OSX Leopard in August '06 WWDC
4. Clarification at/by WWDC on what the hell the Windows dual-boot and possibly virtualisation is all about
5. Towards the end of the year - Intel PowerMac equivalents for running Final Cut Studio, Logic and Rosetta'ed or virtualised CS2/Macromedia
Stevie J has to hit all the right notes IMHO on the above 5 critical points for AAPL to be in the high $90s by the end of the year. In the mid-term (6-8 months) I predict AAPL flirting with the $70s, maybe low $80s, with some sliding back to high $60s given the Intel/ new product transitions... 8)
My brother got in on $62 so that's probably a good baseline to move upwards from, but again, like I said above, it will be gradual as the market needs more clarification on what Apple's plans really are.
Let's do ourselves a favor and stop equating Apple's succcess with the future release of any Adobe product. It's quite clear that Adobe hasn't been a catalyst to grow Apple's market presence: only Apple has been able to do this with introducing their own application suites.
Let's do ourselves a favor and stop equating Apple's succcess with the future release of any Adobe product. It's quite clear that Adobe hasn't been a catalyst to grow Apple's market presence: only Apple has been able to do this with introducing their own application suites.
Perhaps I have been giving the "future release of any Adobe/Macromedia product" a bit to much weight in my analysis above. It still plays a role though, your argument would be that it is a minor one.
Vinney--I think Apple having its own pro suite (Final Cut Studio), buying Logic, and Shake, are smart moves to generate profits by driving sales of pro hardware and software. Ironically there is pro Intel-compatible apps (Final Cut Studio, Logic) but no Pro Intel PowerMacs to run them on !!!!
***
My thoughts are a little messy now though on how important Apple's own pro software is to their profit margin and how important Adobe releases are to people purchasing new hardware to run said Adobe software.
That is, is Apple pro software say a 75% driver of pro hardware purchases with Adobe software a 25% driver of pro hardware purchases? Maybe the figure is 90%-10% ??
:sigh:
- Jasen.
Originally posted by sunilraman
[i] Ironically there is pro Intel-compatible apps (Final Cut Studio, Logic) but no Pro Intel PowerMacs to run them on !!!!
Isn't that unnecessary for a lot of uses of Studio? From what I've heard, it works very well on a MBP and iMac. Personally, I would prefer a PowerMac for desktop use because of its internal expandability, reducing the number of external components, data cables and power cables that clutter up a desk. Ultimately it isn't a requirement for smooth operation, except for the more rigorous users.