Sales of Apple's iPod, Adobe's Creative Suite weaken

Posted:
in iPod + iTunes + AppleTV edited January 2014
While acknowledging that it is too early to make an accurate prediction on Apple's June quarter iPod results, analysts for PiperJaffray have analyzed the first month of NPD data for the quarter and found that iPod unit shipments appear to be reflecting some slight downside.



"Our analysis of iPod unit data from NPD for the month of April leads us to a preliminary iPod number of 8.0 million for the June quarter," analyst Gene Munster told clients on Monday. "The 8.0 million unit number is based on various assumptions and is an extrapolation of one month of data, so we believe investors should supplement this datapoint with other information."



Munster said The Street is currently looking for Apple to posts sales of 8.6 million iPods during the quarter, ahead of his own estimate of 8.25m and the 8.0 million units suggested by his first month analysis of NPD data.



"Recent chatter in various articles and web postings about trends with component suppliers have suggested that iPod units were slower than expected in April, so we do not think investors will be surprised by this early datapoint," Munster said. "As a result of 'Grads and Dads' buying we believe May and June iPod sales will likely be better than what was seen in April."



By the time the second month of iPod data is release by NPD, Munster believes his analysis will likely lead to a slightly different iPod unit figure that what his current analysis suggests.



Meanwhile, the analyst said NPD data for the first two month's of Adobe's May quarter indicates a slow down in orders for the company's Creative Suite bundle as consumers begin to anticipate the launch of Creative Suite 3.0 in the spring of 2007.



"Since Adobe provided its second quarter intra-quarter update on May 2nd indicating that it expects results toward the lower end of guidance based on 'spring break,' investors have been trying to get their arms around causes of weakness in the quarter," Munster told clients. "Based on an analysis of NPD data, we believe the beginning of a slow down in the Creative Suite prior to CS3 are likely the cause of the company pointing to the low end of guidance for Q2."



PiperJaffray maintains Outperform ratings on both Apple and Adobe, with respective price targets of $99 and $45.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 16
    irelandireland Posts: 17,684member
    Apple is doomed, doomed I tell you!!

    /sar
  • Reply 2 of 16
    wilcowilco Posts: 985member
    A Leopard with a weapon can break Windows
  • Reply 3 of 16
    flounderflounder Posts: 2,674member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by wilco

    A Leopard with a weapon can break Windows



    Seriously dude, you really ought to consider laying off the crack-pipe.
  • Reply 4 of 16
    thorstenthorsten Posts: 46member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Ireland

    Apple is doomed, doomed I tell you!!

    /sar




    Why is it that Apple is doomed could you elaborate?
  • Reply 5 of 16
    gene cleangene clean Posts: 3,481member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Flounder

    Seriously dude, you really ought to consider laying off the crack-pipe.



    He's just repeating what Ireland has as his signature. If I understand correctly, he finds that sentence to be nonsense and he is says it everytime Ireland makes a comment.
  • Reply 6 of 16
    macduffmacduff Posts: 30member
    Actually, if you guys took note of Ireland's inclusion of this text:



    /sar



    you would know that he was being sarcastic. He's making fun off some people out there who WILL use this speculation on the part of gene Munster to sincerely state that Apple IS doomed (as has been said of Apple for years).



    Get it?



    As for this supposition by Munster, he could be right. It's impossible for any company to continue the skyrocketing trajectory in sales that Apple has attained all this time. It's -probably cyclical, could be people waiting for the much rumored next-gen iPod, or it could be that those who wanted to jump on the portable MOP3 bandwagon have done so and interest is "normalizing", if you will. After all, there are still BILLIONS of people around the world who have bought NO MP3 player of any brand. In fact, one could say that the market is wide open for any maker, except for the fact that Apple has captured significant mindshare, and the installed iPod base has also created an awesome third party array off peripherals, support and so on... even creating a separate phenomenon of Podcasting. So, although there's huge potential sales out there, Apple will still be the de facto choice by new users.
  • Reply 7 of 16
    kcmackcmac Posts: 1,051member
    I don't think it will matter. The MacBook sales will more than pick up the slack. I am betting they smash the 3rd quarter projections.
  • Reply 8 of 16
    ajmasajmas Posts: 559member
    Question is whether the slow down of iPods is down to someone else eating into Apple's market, or whether there is a general slow down of sales of mp3 players, maybe because of market saturation?
  • Reply 9 of 16
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Thorsten

    Why is it that Apple is doomed could you elaborate?



    Old Apple joke. Officials everywhere has doomed Apple on several occations. I believe Michael Dell has done it 5+ times.
  • Reply 10 of 16
    I'm personally not buying CS2 because CS3 will likely support Intel processor Macs AND likely include the offspring of GoLive/Dreamweaver, Illustrator/Freehand, and (hopefully) have and Adobe-friendly version of Flash.



    I personally know of two small agencies that are still using CS1 because they run one license on a half-dozen (or more) seats. Going to CS2 would force them to buy full licenses for everyone since (last I checked) Adobe doesn't have any sort of license server.



    ...at least everyone I talk to has pretty much abandoned Quark. Most have one install that they keep around just so they can open old or outside files.
  • Reply 11 of 16
    bikertwinbikertwin Posts: 564member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by unregistered

    I personally know of two small agencies that are still using CS1 because they run one license on a half-dozen (or more) seats. Going to CS2 would force them to buy full licenses for everyone since (last I checked) Adobe doesn't have any sort of license server.



    That's why Adobe's stellar results lately won't be repeatable/extendable. It was a one-time "everybody's got to pay to upgrade because of DRM" sorta thing. Users will tend to upgrade every other version.



    If it weren't for the CS3-only Intel native ability, I would think CS3 sales would be in the tank. But since you have to upgrade to CS3 to get universal binaries, this may save Adobe's butt. So CS3 sales will probably be good but not great.



    <dreaming>

    I still want Apple to come out with a full design suite to complement Aperture.

    </dreaming>
  • Reply 12 of 16
    frank777frank777 Posts: 5,807member
    This is going to be interesting.



    Xpress for Intel will launch very soon. Once the MacTower Pros launch, there will be pressure for pros to upgrade, regardless of what anyone is saying now.



    Jobs needs the MacTower sales to takeoff, while Quark is desperate for the same.

    It's therefore fairly obvious that Apple and Quark will reprise the "Buy a MacTower, and get Quark for half price" promotion from a few years back.



    Adobe will have no choice but to fire back with a promotion promising a free or severely discounted CS3 if CS2 is purchased in late 2006.



    It's truly a pity there's no competitor to Photoshop on the horizon. For the Pro market, this upgrade could actually be a lot of fun.
  • Reply 13 of 16
    shaun, ukshaun, uk Posts: 1,050member
    Adobe doesn't exactly seem in a rush to release a universal version (CS3), so it serves them right if their CS2 sales drop off. I suspect I am one of many people who are holding off upgrading their hardware & software during this limbo period.
  • Reply 14 of 16
    frank777frank777 Posts: 5,807member
    Thing is, I'd be willing to guess that most of us will upgrade our hardware anyway.



    Most of the Sawtooth buyers (like myself) are ready to upgrade, and right now anyone with a 1.2ghz processor or less will see an improvement, even with Rosetta.



    I'd be willing to bet that Apple is ensuring that the MacTower will be the must-have machine of the year, and sales will be off the chart.



    Once that happens, it's Adobe that's going to see sales slow drastically.
  • Reply 15 of 16
    shetlineshetline Posts: 4,695member
    What Apple needs to revive sales is not only an iPod with an FM tuner, but one that'll play cassette tapes too. The iWalkPod FM?



















    <--- I thought about not adding this smiley, but SOME idiot would have thought I was being serious if I didn't.
  • Reply 16 of 16
    irelandireland Posts: 17,684member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Gene Clean

    He's just repeating what Ireland has as his signature. If I understand correctly, he finds that sentence to be nonsense and he is says it everytime Ireland makes a comment.



    Not exactly true, because he also started a thread about it
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