Dumb question: how many iPod users actually use iTMS (ie. buy music online)?
Intelligent answer
On Wednesday September 7th 2005 at a special music event in San Francisco, Steve Jobs launched the Motorola ROKR and amongst other information also gave the following update.
"How many accounts do we have on itunes? We have just crossed 10 million accounts. And they come with credit cards,? said Jobs.
The average iTunes account holder has purchased 60 songs, said Jobs, and most of them have been added in the past year. ?That makes iTunes one of the largest internet stores in the world,? he said."
So almost a year ago one could argue that EVEN THEN over 10 million people USED the iTunes Music Store. Logically, the number will have risen even more since then. At the time of the above event, the iTunes store had sold 600 million tracks, now the total is well over a billion tracks.
I think it would be funny to install Microsoft's music player, download the free songs, and then not use them, giving Microsoft a gigantic bill for nothing.
yeah i agree... i think this is a money loser. Think about someone with 4k songs purchased songs doing this-- it would take a LOT of music downloads to turn this convert into a profit (which i guess is possible if they have 4k downloads). Also i would think record companies wouldnt like this, because it gives people the option of making fake legit Itms files that MS's program would probably pick up as legit.
I think the strategy to win converts will further fail for three reasons: limited or no hardware backup, limited or no real advantage compared to Itunes and most people are locked in and frankly like it. I really dont hear people complaining about being locked into itunes, most people i know LIKE itunes-- its not like i ever hear "i wish i wasnt locked into crappy old Itunes", lets face it, its a very good program. Lets also face another fact, MS doesnt make good programs.
It is very late in the game for Microsoft to start selling digital music players.
First take a look at Microsofts current outlook:
1) Vista has been delayed and will probably be delayed again. As well, Vista is not showing innovation - just the catch up game.
2) Microsoft Office has been delayed and just recently has been delayed again.
3) xBox is the only major product Microsoft currently sells that is doing moderatly well at this point. Even here, the release was too early for the market and xBoxs have been to pricey. Nintendo's innovation at a cheap price will probably take a lot of market share.
4) xPod - Microsoft's purported iPod, outlook unkown -- but read on for a prediction.
Microsoft is banking on getting good xPod sales to bring up the company. Currently Microsoft is doing poorly in its two major software ventures and not great in its xBox venture.
Microsoft is promising a wireless music player with innovative technologies.
Lets take a look at our given:
1) Microsoft is introducing their products very late in the game.
2) Wiresless technologies is the base of Microsofts "advantage over the iPod".
3) Microsoft cannot invent a User Interface that is better than the iPods.
4) First generation devices are not as stable and are prone to problems.
5) Apple and iPod are much stronger brand names with marketshare as an advantage.
6) Apple's video market is exclusive and strong, not to mention their music market for which people are happy with the current price model. iTunes is currently superior to Windows Media Player, and Microsoft plans to bait iTunes users by giving converts a free download of songs they already bought through iTunes.
7) What makes Microsoft different from any other company trying to make iPod killers?
Now to analyize each:
1) Apple, having been both in the MP3 player business for the past six years, and having been extremly successful at that, has both Marketshare, advertising, and a band name recognition in there favor over an "xPod". With little MAJOR innovation from Microsoft, it should remain a closed market to new competitors. Advantage goes to the iPod.
2) Apple has been working on developing wireless technologies for a very long time. Apple's wireless iPod plans are more likely easier, more powerful, and more stable. There is nothing to suggest that Microsoft's would be better. Microsoft even purported users being able to buy and download songs directly from the internet wirelessly to their xPod. Personally, I do not see this as an advantage. Searching for music would be extremly difficult, and I don't see that anybody really wants to download music wirelessly to their MP3 player. At any rate, this dosn't pose a signifficant advantage.
3) The clickwheel is pretty much accepted to be the best UI found in any MP3 player or portable device at that. While theoretically possible, I think it is very safe to assume that Microsoft's xPod will not have a superior UI. Advantage goes to the iPod.
4) No need to explain. Rarely is a first generation product perfect without flaws or glitches. Many times these flaws or glitches major. Advantage goes to the iPod
5) This one is huge. Microsoft the company does not have a brand name that evokes luster, flashyness, and fun. The brand name Microsoft evokes business feelings. On the contrary, the brand name Apple evokes a feeling of fun, sleek and stylish designs, as well as home products (rather than business). This dosn't even take into account the brand name of the iPod. The iPod is iconic and is a household brand name. The advertising is distinctive. Marketshare of the iPod in the portable music player market is huge. Clear advantage to the iPod.
6) Free downloads of songs bought through iTunes will likely not convince people to switch as the music player will probably be to weak to entice converts. Also, people are happy with Apple's price current price model. Apple's video market is also a huge advantage. iTunes is also superior to Windows Media Player. Advantage goes to the iPod again.
7) Essentially nothing. The only advantage is money, and as seen with other projects by Microsoft (Vista for instance), nothing convinces me that money will help the xPod, except for with advertising. Alas, as far as advertising, the money does lead for potential of an advantage over other iPod competitors. Advertising is not an advantage over the iPod, but an advantage over the MP3 player market competing with the iPod. We will give this to Microsoft.
I think your givens have flaws... They assume a bit too much about stagnancy in the marketplace and the doors new technologies and convergence open up. I think Microsoft could have a pretty healthy start in the music player/store arena if the integrated the store into the XBox 360 UI, made the player easily dockable with the XBox, allowed the XBox to playthrough the music over games or just standalone (since it's likely to be hooked up to a stereo or at least a decent pair of speakers), and allowed synchronization between the XBox/PC/WMP. They certainly already have a decent marketplace for games etc.
Now do I have doubts about Microsoft's ability to execute? Certainly?but they also surprise us every once in awhile, and like it or not they have a solid entertainment brand in the XBox. One really has to wonder why Sony didn't take this tack, considering their much larger PS2 user base, and potential PS3 user base which they are doing everything they can to muff up.
My arguments were not really about whether in theory Microsoft could produce a competative muisc player -- they were in REALITY whether they could produce a competative music player. And my reasons were not that micosoft does not have the capacity to do so (they certainly can), but rather whether such a devide would be success and/or the purported "iPod Killer".
I think that Microsoft making integration with the xBox would be a big misitake. They are too entirely different things. In addition, the xBox is not so much of a hub (as may have been the vision of Microsoft -- for it to be a hub) but a periperal. Logistically this is where Microsoft goes wrong with entertainment, and where Apple could go very right. Apple is in the perfect position to make a hub which integrates your living room electronics to your ipod to your computer. The iPod is a periperal, not a hub. The xBox is a periperal, not a hub, espessially because it is so specialized for games.
It's hard to stop a speeding train. The iPod is the train.
Well, I'll respectfully disagree then. There's no shortage of nested hub precedents in technology, but that point aside, the XBox is certainly an entertainment hub of sorts, playing games, watching movies, and the marketplace for casual games (which I would classify as a different beast from the big name titles). Though obviously not quite on the level of a full fledged computer (unless hacked).
The important thing is not the hubbishness?, but instead the fact that people already associate the XBox with entertainment and are comfortable with the "points" system in their marketplace. The barrier to entry, so to speak, is already broken for these customers, which would likely at the very least give MS a jump start.
Also, the fact that the XBox could be integrated or not integrated with the family computer, as a remote hub to speak, would be a boon to parents that don't want their kid's music to pollute their HDs.
All that aside then XBox has a much stronger brand association with the target market for music players than Microsoft, which is a pretty sterile brand for the youth market. In my mind MS has to either create a new brand or extend XBox to gain any traction in that space.
Dumb question: how many iPod users actually use iTMS (ie. buy music online)?
Not me. I have several hundred physical CDs, and I have no interest in purchasing anything that has any kind of DRM restricttions whatsoever. Plus I don't buy stuff over the net.
But I am a very happy iPod user.
As far as owning an iPod and having not purchased (and will likely never purchase) from the iTMS, I suppose I am in the minority....
But think about WHO xBox is marketed to. It is an extremly small market as with almost all video games. It is marketed to youth and college men. For many people (i.e. women and adults) associating xPod with xBox would be a major turn off. You just simply can't connect marketing with this or make them too integrated because that will loose you your women and adult market.
Also, the xBox is not a hub. It is INTENDED to be a hub. But it failed at being a hub. And the main reason is because Microsoft did not provide good integration with computers and other devices, over emphasized gaming, and did not have any signifficant "exclusive" product or features that would be appealing over other media electronics.
All new products/markets start out with a core of early adopters. It need not be universally appealing nor large. Just passionate and persuasive. Sort of like the Mac market when Apple started marketing the iPod.
Dumb question: how many iPod users actually use iTMS (ie. buy music online)?
I have 4 kids with iPods. I see them burning through iTunes gift cards downloading tv shows and music.
I think what happens is that once you start downloading from iTMS the convenience bug bites and it becomes addictive for the purchase of one-off songs and shows. What I don't know is how many people have taken to buying entire albums via iTMS.
Comments
Originally posted by chouchou
Dumb question: how many iPod users actually use iTMS (ie. buy music online)?
Intelligent answer
On Wednesday September 7th 2005 at a special music event in San Francisco, Steve Jobs launched the Motorola ROKR and amongst other information also gave the following update.
"How many accounts do we have on itunes? We have just crossed 10 million accounts. And they come with credit cards,? said Jobs.
The average iTunes account holder has purchased 60 songs, said Jobs, and most of them have been added in the past year. ?That makes iTunes one of the largest internet stores in the world,? he said."
So almost a year ago one could argue that EVEN THEN over 10 million people USED the iTunes Music Store. Logically, the number will have risen even more since then. At the time of the above event, the iTunes store had sold 600 million tracks, now the total is well over a billion tracks.
Originally posted by xanthohappy
I think it would be funny to install Microsoft's music player, download the free songs, and then not use them, giving Microsoft a gigantic bill for nothing.
yeah i agree... i think this is a money loser. Think about someone with 4k songs purchased songs doing this-- it would take a LOT of music downloads to turn this convert into a profit (which i guess is possible if they have 4k downloads). Also i would think record companies wouldnt like this, because it gives people the option of making fake legit Itms files that MS's program would probably pick up as legit.
I think the strategy to win converts will further fail for three reasons: limited or no hardware backup, limited or no real advantage compared to Itunes and most people are locked in and frankly like it. I really dont hear people complaining about being locked into itunes, most people i know LIKE itunes-- its not like i ever hear "i wish i wasnt locked into crappy old Itunes", lets face it, its a very good program. Lets also face another fact, MS doesnt make good programs.
First take a look at Microsofts current outlook:
1) Vista has been delayed and will probably be delayed again. As well, Vista is not showing innovation - just the catch up game.
2) Microsoft Office has been delayed and just recently has been delayed again.
3) xBox is the only major product Microsoft currently sells that is doing moderatly well at this point. Even here, the release was too early for the market and xBoxs have been to pricey. Nintendo's innovation at a cheap price will probably take a lot of market share.
4) xPod - Microsoft's purported iPod, outlook unkown -- but read on for a prediction.
Microsoft is banking on getting good xPod sales to bring up the company. Currently Microsoft is doing poorly in its two major software ventures and not great in its xBox venture.
Microsoft is promising a wireless music player with innovative technologies.
Lets take a look at our given:
1) Microsoft is introducing their products very late in the game.
2) Wiresless technologies is the base of Microsofts "advantage over the iPod".
3) Microsoft cannot invent a User Interface that is better than the iPods.
4) First generation devices are not as stable and are prone to problems.
5) Apple and iPod are much stronger brand names with marketshare as an advantage.
6) Apple's video market is exclusive and strong, not to mention their music market for which people are happy with the current price model. iTunes is currently superior to Windows Media Player, and Microsoft plans to bait iTunes users by giving converts a free download of songs they already bought through iTunes.
7) What makes Microsoft different from any other company trying to make iPod killers?
Now to analyize each:
1) Apple, having been both in the MP3 player business for the past six years, and having been extremly successful at that, has both Marketshare, advertising, and a band name recognition in there favor over an "xPod". With little MAJOR innovation from Microsoft, it should remain a closed market to new competitors. Advantage goes to the iPod.
2) Apple has been working on developing wireless technologies for a very long time. Apple's wireless iPod plans are more likely easier, more powerful, and more stable. There is nothing to suggest that Microsoft's would be better. Microsoft even purported users being able to buy and download songs directly from the internet wirelessly to their xPod. Personally, I do not see this as an advantage. Searching for music would be extremly difficult, and I don't see that anybody really wants to download music wirelessly to their MP3 player. At any rate, this dosn't pose a signifficant advantage.
3) The clickwheel is pretty much accepted to be the best UI found in any MP3 player or portable device at that. While theoretically possible, I think it is very safe to assume that Microsoft's xPod will not have a superior UI. Advantage goes to the iPod.
4) No need to explain. Rarely is a first generation product perfect without flaws or glitches. Many times these flaws or glitches major. Advantage goes to the iPod
5) This one is huge. Microsoft the company does not have a brand name that evokes luster, flashyness, and fun. The brand name Microsoft evokes business feelings. On the contrary, the brand name Apple evokes a feeling of fun, sleek and stylish designs, as well as home products (rather than business). This dosn't even take into account the brand name of the iPod. The iPod is iconic and is a household brand name. The advertising is distinctive. Marketshare of the iPod in the portable music player market is huge. Clear advantage to the iPod.
6) Free downloads of songs bought through iTunes will likely not convince people to switch as the music player will probably be to weak to entice converts. Also, people are happy with Apple's price current price model. Apple's video market is also a huge advantage. iTunes is also superior to Windows Media Player. Advantage goes to the iPod again.
7) Essentially nothing. The only advantage is money, and as seen with other projects by Microsoft (Vista for instance), nothing convinces me that money will help the xPod, except for with advertising. Alas, as far as advertising, the money does lead for potential of an advantage over other iPod competitors. Advertising is not an advantage over the iPod, but an advantage over the MP3 player market competing with the iPod. We will give this to Microsoft.
In conclusion:
Apple's iPod: 6
Microsofts xPod: 1
Now do I have doubts about Microsoft's ability to execute? Certainly?but they also surprise us every once in awhile, and like it or not they have a solid entertainment brand in the XBox. One really has to wonder why Sony didn't take this tack, considering their much larger PS2 user base, and potential PS3 user base which they are doing everything they can to muff up.
I think that Microsoft making integration with the xBox would be a big misitake. They are too entirely different things. In addition, the xBox is not so much of a hub (as may have been the vision of Microsoft -- for it to be a hub) but a periperal. Logistically this is where Microsoft goes wrong with entertainment, and where Apple could go very right. Apple is in the perfect position to make a hub which integrates your living room electronics to your ipod to your computer. The iPod is a periperal, not a hub. The xBox is a periperal, not a hub, espessially because it is so specialized for games.
It's hard to stop a speeding train. The iPod is the train.
The important thing is not the hubbishness?, but instead the fact that people already associate the XBox with entertainment and are comfortable with the "points" system in their marketplace. The barrier to entry, so to speak, is already broken for these customers, which would likely at the very least give MS a jump start.
Also, the fact that the XBox could be integrated or not integrated with the family computer, as a remote hub to speak, would be a boon to parents that don't want their kid's music to pollute their HDs.
All that aside then XBox has a much stronger brand association with the target market for music players than Microsoft, which is a pretty sterile brand for the youth market. In my mind MS has to either create a new brand or extend XBox to gain any traction in that space.
Originally posted by chouchou
Dumb question: how many iPod users actually use iTMS (ie. buy music online)?
Not me. I have several hundred physical CDs, and I have no interest in purchasing anything that has any kind of DRM restricttions whatsoever. Plus I don't buy stuff over the net.
But I am a very happy iPod user.
As far as owning an iPod and having not purchased (and will likely never purchase) from the iTMS, I suppose I am in the minority....
Also, the xBox is not a hub. It is INTENDED to be a hub. But it failed at being a hub. And the main reason is because Microsoft did not provide good integration with computers and other devices, over emphasized gaming, and did not have any signifficant "exclusive" product or features that would be appealing over other media electronics.
Originally posted by chouchou
Dumb question: how many iPod users actually use iTMS (ie. buy music online)?
I have 4 kids with iPods. I see them burning through iTunes gift cards downloading tv shows and music.
I think what happens is that once you start downloading from iTMS the convenience bug bites and it becomes addictive for the purchase of one-off songs and shows. What I don't know is how many people have taken to buying entire albums via iTMS.