a. iTV will have a hard drive according to Bob Iger
I read that article and this point didn't seem very clear. At any rate, I've seen reporters make mistakes in their quoting such that I wouldn't put too much weight on that yet. If Apple was planning to put a hard drive in it, I don't understand why that would be left out of the presentation.
I read that article and this point didn't seem very clear. At any rate, I've seen reporters make mistakes in their quoting such that I wouldn't put too much weight on that yet. If Apple was planning to put a hard drive in it, I don't understand why that would be left out of the presentation.
Wasn't the USB port left out of the presentation also?
I think iTV is very much still in the final design process.
Who knows what the final product will end up like.
I think the mention of iTV was a move to push the other studios to join iTunes.
Wasn't the USB port left out of the presentation also?
No. USB is clearly in the slide, both the port and there was a callout. None of the slides mention a hard drive. I'm not saying it's not going to have a hard drive, but if it is going to have that, why wasn't it in a slide? I'll accept that there is a chance, but I don't yet think Iger's comment is an affirmative, the quoting looked pretty speculative or vague.
Can YOU provide a stat showing that the "majority of people who use dvr's use Tivo? Particularly Tivo's own customers, rather than the one's with more limited rights that derive from the Comcast deal, or others?
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2. How many people do you think will use Itv?. I'd bet my year salary that there will be more Tivo users than ITV users for the next 4 years (I'm giving apple 4 years to make this work)
I have no idea as to how many people will us the iTv. And I have no idea as to what the takeup will be.
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3. Tivo with amazon is expensive?.. what, you expect Itv with itunes to be cheap?. If people cannot afford Tivo with onbox, they sure aint gonna be able to afford a $299 ITV device with itunes (newsflash Melgross, After you buy ITV, the movies from itunes will not be free, you still gotta pay for those!!!).
But we don't have to pay a monthly fee. We will also have the freedom to broadcast anything through the iTv, not just the video we can get from some service. And, we don't know if this includes BUYING the movies from Amazon, just like it does now, plus the monthly fee from Tivo. And what does this mean to the DirecTV customers who are not directly Tivo customers? DirecTv will not like this deal at all. And Comcast customers are just using highly modified Tivo software that Comcast controls.
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4. They can work out the DRM issue. This is not like going to the moon or building an atom bomb. I could work out the DRM issue and i am just one man. I'm sure they can find developers somewhere on this planet to work out the DRM issue.
When they do, call us back. If they do, we'll have to see just what that DRM allows. If it is anything like the new one in WMP 11, it will br pretty bad, so until we see what they come up with, don't feel so lighhearted about it.
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5. Even if it takes time, the service cannot be dead. How can it be?. Is ITV on the market tomorrow?. How long do you think they would take?. Me by myself would take a few months. ITV will not be coming onto the market until next year and as wonderfull as you think the itunes movie service is currently, it's not demonstrably better than onbox.
Very few of those who have reviewed the service would agree with that!
Apple is not gonna crush amazon by no means and in fact, ITV may be dead on arrival (or alive only in the mac community) if amazon and Tivo can get their shit together before ITV arrives. Again, you understimate the programmers on planet earth. We are a talented bunch of people. Heck, if we can develop software for a space shuttle, we can do the DRM thing. It's an afternoon job for one person. I'm sure it will take longer only because they have to figure things out, make sure no one can circumvent, etc but basically, this is a weekend job.
We don't know what Apple's "gonna" do. Many didn't think that the iTunes/iPod deal would work either. We'll see.
It's not just programmers. It's the company managers as well. How well has Vista been doing? What about all of those failed in-house projects that major companies start and then never finish? It's estimated that the number is over 50%.
Besides, DRM is far more a matter of what content providers will ALLOW, not what some programmers can come up with. What if they don't want the idea of a Tivo like device storing their movies?
Melgross, People get Tivo to for timeshifting purposes, not to get Amazon service. Amazon is leveraging existing and future Tivo installations. Itv on the other hand has to be bought just to stream movies and pictures on tv (yeah, like i am dying to watch my photos on my tv).
Apple has the steeper slope to climb. I can justify getting a Tivo (i cannot imagine living without a DVR, i wish there was one for radio) but ITV?. $299 to watch movies with sucky quality?. What would compel me to do that?. As to watching photos, my computer monitor is big enough.. i have no idea with this fascination of watching photos on TV. I would never buy a device to do that unless that device also does something else compelling. Itv is no match for Tivo (not yet at least). I would never get Tivo to watch amazon movies but i would get tivo to pause live tv and might decide to try amazon service. See the diff Melgross?. That is why i think Itv will only be a hit among hardcore mac fans. Really, $299 for a device to watch movies at horrible quality?.. I'll stick with netflix, thanks.
Hm, it somehow seems to me that we are focusing here too much on the official downloads. If I'm not mistaken, a huge percentage of music on ipod does *not* come from itunes downloads. I guess we might see the same thing with itv: it will be used predominantly to stream video/movies from other sources -- like illegaly downloaded movies, or copied ripped from friends.
Currently, one needs to download them, sometimes un-rar them, then burn them -- and for some reason, some of the burned DVDs do not always work on DVD player (OK, it might be just me and my crappy player). I see this as a major selling point (although Apple will never be able to market it so explicitly). In that sense, tivo+amazon becomes a niche player, because they focus only on officially bought, and not on ripped collections.
Melgross, People get Tivo to for timeshifting purposes, not to get Amazon service. Amazon is leveraging existing and future Tivo installations. Itv on the other hand has to be bought just to stream movies and pictures on tv (yeah, like i am dying to watch my photos on my tv).
Apple has the steeper slope to climb. I can justify getting a Tivo (i cannot imagine living without a DVR, i wish there was one for radio) but ITV?. $299 to watch movies with sucky quality?. What would compel me to do that?. As to watching photos, my computer monitor is big enough.. i have no idea with this fascination of watching photos on TV. I would never buy a device to do that unless that device also does something else compelling. Itv is no match for Tivo (not yet at least). I would never get Tivo to watch amazon movies but i would get tivo to pause live tv and might decide to try amazon service. See the diff Melgross?. That is why i think Itv will only be a hit among hardcore mac fans. Really, $299 for a device to watch movies at horrible quality?.. I'll stick with netflix, thanks.
I have a DVR from Time Warner. It does everything I need. It does everything most people need. It's easier to get, and only costs $7.50 per month, with no upfront cost. If I want to upgrade to the HD version, I can bring this in and exchange it. The HD version costs the same $7.50 per month. The HD Tivo costs $800 plus the $13.50 per month.
Of the 4.4 million Tivo subscriptions, it's estimated that only a few hundred thousand are getting them from Tivo, without getting it from some other service involved with Tivo.
The point I was making, is that there isn't a very large independent Tivo subscribership. Most Tivo subscribers may not be allowed to do this, if they are getting it through DirecTv, or are using the highly modified software that Comcast has, which is under Comcast's control, not Tivo's. I hope you at least looked at some of the links.
If this is true, and it may very well be, as DirecTv, Comcast, and others, have no interest in allowing Amazon to compete with their own services. Why should they allow people to buy, or rent a movie, when that will result is less interest for their own product, such as movies on demand, etc?
Therefore, the few hundred thousand direct Tivo subscribers (numbered in the low 300 thousands a year or so ago), are not a large enough number to matter. Apple will easily sell many more than 300 thousand of these units.
Therefore, again, people will have to get a Tivo, either paying something, or getting it under one of the free giveaways (other than the HD model), if they will still exist, AND subscribe to the service in order to take advantage of this partnership, if it ever comes about.
Do you see what I'm saying?
If there were 5 or 6 million, or more, independent Tivo subscribers out there, it might very well be different. But there aren't.
Melgross, People get Tivo to for timeshifting purposes, not to get Amazon service. Amazon is leveraging existing and future Tivo installations. Itv on the other hand has to be bought just to stream movies and pictures on tv (yeah, like i am dying to watch my photos on my tv).
Some folks do want to see photos on their TV over a computer monitor. Eh.
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Apple has the steeper slope to climb. I can justify getting a Tivo (i cannot imagine living without a DVR, i wish there was one for radio) but ITV?. $299 to watch movies with sucky quality?.
Why would 720p be sucky quality? Even if they don't go 720p on the next jump I'd expect at least 950x540 (1/4 HD).
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Itv is no match for Tivo (not yet at least). I would never get Tivo to watch amazon movies but i would get tivo to pause live tv and might decide to try amazon service. See the diff Melgross?. That is why i think Itv will only be a hit among hardcore mac fans. Really, $299 for a device to watch movies at horrible quality?.. I'll stick with netflix, thanks.
I expect 720p from iTV (and even made a little side bet on it here). 1/4HD in 2007 is a nice stepping stone to 720p by xmas 2008...
I would also change your statement to that iTV will be limited to Apple fans...not Mac fans. You know...all the folks that like iTunes...most of which don't own a Mac.
Some folks do want to see photos on their TV over a computer monitor. Eh.
Why would 720p be sucky quality? Even if they don't go 720p on the next jump I'd expect at least 950x540 (1/4 HD).
I expect 720p from iTV (and even made a little side bet on it here). 1/4HD in 2007 is a nice stepping stone to 720p by xmas 2008...
I would also change your statement to that iTV will be limited to Apple fans...not Mac fans. You know...all the folks that like iTunes...most of which don't own a Mac.
Vinea
Vinea, don't confuse ipod fans with itunes fans. Many people who get ipods do not use itunes. (yes, shocking i know). I wouldn't save you the trouble of googling the information (you can enter the terms "
ipod fans that use itunes". I believe you will get the info you seek.
Another thing, for all the ipod success, again, why would people buy Itv?. Hasn't microsoft tried the media center and failed?. Just cause apple comes out with a cute little device with the apple logo does not mean it succeeds. Remember Isight?. What a marvelous piece of technology (it got rave reviews from everyone). How many people went and spent 149 for it?. I know, i know.. Isight does not have the itunes brand cachet but still, people like their money. You have to give them a reason to buy this device. Another device from apple that is great is Airport extreme. Care to guess how popular that is?. Nice product.. i remember when it came out, people were raving about ability to play music remotely (remember that feature?). Wow, who would want to buy a regular wireless router after airport express came out.. i mean, come on.. the coolest product on the planet. I think D-Link is not losing sleep over that one. Again of course, Airport did not have the itunes cachet. I think apple is depending so much on using the words itunes and itv in the same sentence to drive sales but this is basically a mac fan device, it's not a mass consumer device.
Vinea, don't confuse ipod fans with itunes fans. Many people who get ipods do not use itunes. (yes, shocking i know). I wouldn't save you the trouble of googling the information (you can enter the terms "
ipod fans that use itunes". I believe you will get the info you seek.
Another thing, for all the ipod success, again, why would people buy Itv?. Hasn't microsoft tried the media center and failed?. Just cause apple comes out with a cute little device with the apple logo does not mean it succeeds. Remember Isight?. What a marvelous piece of technology (it got rave reviews from everyone). How many people went and spent 149 for it?. I know, i know.. Isight does not have the itunes brand cachet but still, people like their money. You have to give them a reason to buy this device. Another device from apple that is great is Airport extreme. Care to guess how popular that is?. Nice product.. i remember when it came out, people were raving about ability to play music remotely (remember that feature?). Wow, who would want to buy a regular wireless router after airport express came out.. i mean, come on.. the coolest product on the planet. I think D-Link is not losing sleep over that one. Again of course, Airport did not have the itunes cachet. I think apple is depending so much on using the words itunes and itv in the same sentence to drive sales but this is basically a mac fan device, it's not a mass consumer device.
iTunes 7 REGUIRES iPod users to use it for several things. now, your iPod will be manages through iTunes. Updates, firmware, etc.
Even if you don't buy music from iTunes you are likely to use it to manage your music you have gotten from somewhere else, as well to rip it.
The media center is a very different beast. It requires that the ugly, vertical computer be in you Tv room. not many people want that. Otherwise you have to use MS's version of the iTv, which is a simplistic device that is a bit of a pain to set up, and doesn't always work.
I thjink we can assume that this will be better.
iSight is quite a bit different. It's very specialised. We have two here. I had to get the second when my daughter stole mine.
The fact that Apple has been putting them into the laptops shows that they have indeed been popular.
Airport was pretty popular amongst Apple users, at least until far cheaper versions from others came out.
Vinea, don't confuse ipod fans with itunes fans. Many people who get ipods do not use itunes. (yes, shocking i know). I wouldn't save you the trouble of googling the information (you can enter the terms "ipod fans that use itunes". I believe you will get the info you seek.
Had I written iPod this objection would be more compelling but I did choose the term iTunes for a reason. Apple is the largest provider of legal downloads and while not a huge profit area for Apple it does show there is a large number of legal downloaders willing to buy given Apple's pricing model.
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Another thing, for all the ipod success, again, why would people buy Itv?. Hasn't microsoft tried the media center and failed?. Just cause apple comes out with a cute little device with the apple logo does not mean it succeeds. Remember Isight?. What a marvelous piece of technology (it got rave reviews from everyone). How many people went and spent 149 for it?. I know, i know.. Isight does not have the itunes brand cachet but still, people like their money.
iSight is effectively free now as its built into every new mac (outside the mini and pro). As iChat becomes more ubiquitous for mac users then more folks of older macs will buy some sort of webcam. The problem for iSight (and web cams in general) is critical mass of users. Photobooth notwithstanding a webcam aint all THAT useful if you're the only one among your friends that has or uses one.
MS has tried the media center and whether it has failed is still to be determined. What appears to be obvious to MS, Sony and Apple is that the next area of new growth is in the living room. MS and Sony has the 360 (their media extender) and the PS3. Apple, unless it decides it wants to conceed the set top/living room/media distribution market entirely, has to introduce some set top box/media extender.
Given Apple's success in the iPod it should have a good shot at gaining traction from all the non-gamer iTunes users.
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You have to give them a reason to buy this device.
Yes, its called content. TV and movie content. Hopefully (and I expect so) HD TV and Movie content.
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Another device from apple that is great is Airport extreme. Care to guess how popular that is?. Nice product.. i remember when it came out, people were raving about ability to play music remotely (remember that feature?). Wow, who would want to buy a regular wireless router after airport express came out.. i mean, come on.. the coolest product on the planet. I think D-Link is not losing sleep over that one. Again of course, Airport did not have the itunes cachet. I think apple is depending so much on using the words itunes and itv in the same sentence to drive sales but this is basically a mac fan device, it's not a mass consumer device.
I think that Apple has decided that they want to be in the living room and are reusing the iPod model where they can drive hardware sales by providing a nice UI to an integrated store that provides legal downloads of content for a fair price. The Airport extreme, like the standalone iSight, seems like a stepping stone device to the end vision.
Certainly the iTV is not as cool as an iPod. Sales are likely to be far lower but it could also be that iTV/Mac/iTunes becomes a popular method of owning HD content rather than HD-DVD and BluRay. The price point is certainly lower than even Toshiba's offering and probably has a little room for price reduction.
iTunes 7 REGUIRES iPod users to use it for several things. now, your iPod will be manages through iTunes. Updates, firmware, etc.
Even if you don't buy music from iTunes you are likely to use it to manage your music you have gotten from somewhere else, as well to rip it.
The media center is a very different beast. It requires that the ugly, vertical computer be in you Tv room. not many people want that. Otherwise you have to use MS's version of the iTv, which is a simplistic device that is a bit of a pain to set up, and doesn't always work.
I thjink we can assume that this will be better.
iSight is quite a bit different. It's very specialised. We have two here. I had to get the second when my daughter stole mine.
The fact that Apple has been putting them into the laptops shows that they have indeed been popular.
Airport was pretty popular amongst Apple users, at least until far cheaper versions from others came out.
The fact apple is putting them into laptops does not indicate popularity. Microsoft put MS Bob into every copy of windows and windows ruled over 75% of the OS market at the time.. did that indicate MS Bob was popular?. Apple put firewire into every powermac and almost into every computer.. is it popular?
Apple put digital audio out ports into every powermac.. is it popular? Don't mistake a default feature for popularity. I have a feeling Apple did not do a survey asking people if they wanted Isight integrated. They just went ahead and did it. Hey, they are trying to create critical mass for the product. Kudos to them for trying but Isight is by no means popular.
Had I written iPod this objection would be more compelling but I did choose the term iTunes for a reason. Apple is the largest provider of legal downloads and while not a huge profit area for Apple it does show there is a large number of legal downloaders willing to buy given Apple's pricing model.
iSight is effectively free now as its built into every new mac (outside the mini and pro). As iChat becomes more ubiquitous for mac users then more folks of older macs will buy some sort of webcam. The problem for iSight (and web cams in general) is critical mass of users. Photobooth notwithstanding a webcam aint all THAT useful if you're the only one among your friends that has or uses one.
MS has tried the media center and whether it has failed is still to be determined. What appears to be obvious to MS, Sony and Apple is that the next area of new growth is in the living room. MS and Sony has the 360 (their media extender) and the PS3. Apple, unless it decides it wants to conceed the set top/living room/media distribution market entirely, has to introduce some set top box/media extender.
Given Apple's success in the iPod it should have a good shot at gaining traction from all the non-gamer iTunes users.
Yes, its called content. TV and movie content. Hopefully (and I expect so) HD TV and Movie content.
I think that Apple has decided that they want to be in the living room and are reusing the iPod model where they can drive hardware sales by providing a nice UI to an integrated store that provides legal downloads of content for a fair price. The Airport extreme, like the standalone iSight, seems like a stepping stone device to the end vision.
Certainly the iTV is not as cool as an iPod. Sales are likely to be far lower but it could also be that iTV/Mac/iTunes becomes a popular method of owning HD content rather than HD-DVD and BluRay. The price point is certainly lower than even Toshiba's offering and probably has a little room for price reduction.
Vinea
Well content from only Disney is not content. Secondly, My objection to the device was independent of content. I don't care what content it has, why would i buy that content at inferior quality?. Secondly, why would i shell out 299 for the privelege of buying inferior content?.
Have you ever tried streaming regular quality video over wireless?.. how is apple gonna stream HD quality?. Just cause it sounds like a nice idea does not make it technologically feasible. There is a reason apple is offering low quality video (their ability to create higher content is not lacking). Even play uncompressed audio (not video, audio) is problematic over wireless. I can't imagine wireless having the ability to stream HD anytime soon (i'm not sure even 802.11n will be able to stream HD content satisfactorily). Really, if wireless can achieve throughput of 100 Mbps like wired, then we are talking, otherwise, no thanks
Also I merely used Isight to make a point. The fact that it's built into every laptop is irrelevant. It's not popular period. See my reply to Melgross about this. Built in does not equal popularity (like i told Mel, Apple is trying to achieve popularity, i applaud them for that but this product is not popular by any means).. that's like saying windows is popular cause it comes preinstalled with every windows computer.
Have you ever tried streaming regular quality video over wireless?.. how is apple gonna stream HD quality?. Just cause it sounds like a nice idea does not make it technologically feasible. There is a reason apple is offering low quality video (their ability to create higher content is not lacking). Even play uncompressed audio (not video, audio) is problematic over wireless. I can't imagine wireless having the ability to stream HD anytime soon (i'm not sure even 802.11n will be able to stream HD content satisfactorily). Really, if wireless can achieve throughput of 100 Mbps like wired, then we are talking, otherwise, no thanks
It really depends on your wireless setup and environment. I just tried it, 480p video streams just fine and this is through two walls and one piece of furniture. I get an occasional stutter on HD. I don't have any channel contention with neighbors though, I don't have neighbors close enough to make a difference.
All you really need is a good solid 8Mbps throughput, for wireless that probably means having your connection in "24Mbps" mode or better.
The fact apple is putting them into laptops does not indicate popularity. Microsoft put MS Bob into every copy of windows and windows ruled over 75% of the OS market at the time.. did that indicate MS Bob was popular?. Apple put firewire into every powermac and almost into every computer.. is it popular?
Apple put digital audio out ports into every powermac.. is it popular? Don't mistake a default feature for popularity. I have a feeling Apple did not do a survey asking people if they wanted Isight integrated. They just went ahead and did it. Hey, they are trying to create critical mass for the product. Kudos to them for trying but Isight is by no means popular.
I don't think that we can compare the much miligned "Bob' with any of the other things you mentioned.
iSights have proven popular. The excitement here, and on other boards, when it was thought that Apple might put them into a laptop, was substantial. I bought an iSight to play around with. My daughter "stole" that one, and I bought another.
I know plenty of people who have one, even if they don't use it every day.
Firewire is on quite a few computers, even if it hasn't become universal. One reason for that was because Intel had decided not to put it onto their mobo's because of a licensing dispute with Apple. But the millions of camcorder users are very happy that Firewire is in their machines.
And, I would also agree with you that Apple is trying to build a critical mass. Something doesn't have to be ubiquitous to be popular. The iPod is popular, but only a small fraction of people even here in the US, have them.
Wow. That is a strange comment indeed! Apple started their video store with just some Disney "content" as well. Now they have over 200 shows, with more being added regularly.
Comments
b. Steve Jobs is the largest shareholder of Disney
c. Disney owns Moviebeam
d. Moviebeam is not even close to being successful
Could there be a possibility that moviebeam
is incorporated into iTV to fight off Amazon+Tivo ?
a. iTV will have a hard drive according to Bob Iger
I read that article and this point didn't seem very clear. At any rate, I've seen reporters make mistakes in their quoting such that I wouldn't put too much weight on that yet. If Apple was planning to put a hard drive in it, I don't understand why that would be left out of the presentation.
I read that article and this point didn't seem very clear. At any rate, I've seen reporters make mistakes in their quoting such that I wouldn't put too much weight on that yet. If Apple was planning to put a hard drive in it, I don't understand why that would be left out of the presentation.
Wasn't the USB port left out of the presentation also?
I think iTV is very much still in the final design process.
Who knows what the final product will end up like.
I think the mention of iTV was a move to push the other studios to join iTunes.
Wasn't the USB port left out of the presentation also?
No. USB is clearly in the slide, both the port and there was a callout. None of the slides mention a hard drive. I'm not saying it's not going to have a hard drive, but if it is going to have that, why wasn't it in a slide? I'll accept that there is a chance, but I don't yet think Iger's comment is an affirmative, the quoting looked pretty speculative or vague.
Melgross a couple of things
1. Where is the stat that not many people use Tivo?. huh, the majority of the people who use DVR uses Tivo and
Well, a stat was just posted. But,that stat may not even be right. It might include the Tivo's being used in the DirecTV satellite service as well.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20051010-5411.html
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060412-6583.html
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060309-6347.html
http://thomashawk.com/2006/02/meet-n...-boss-ceo.html
Can YOU provide a stat showing that the "majority of people who use dvr's use Tivo? Particularly Tivo's own customers, rather than the one's with more limited rights that derive from the Comcast deal, or others?
2. How many people do you think will use Itv?. I'd bet my year salary that there will be more Tivo users than ITV users for the next 4 years (I'm giving apple 4 years to make this work)
I have no idea as to how many people will us the iTv. And I have no idea as to what the takeup will be.
3. Tivo with amazon is expensive?.. what, you expect Itv with itunes to be cheap?. If people cannot afford Tivo with onbox, they sure aint gonna be able to afford a $299 ITV device with itunes (newsflash Melgross, After you buy ITV, the movies from itunes will not be free, you still gotta pay for those!!!).
But we don't have to pay a monthly fee. We will also have the freedom to broadcast anything through the iTv, not just the video we can get from some service. And, we don't know if this includes BUYING the movies from Amazon, just like it does now, plus the monthly fee from Tivo. And what does this mean to the DirecTV customers who are not directly Tivo customers? DirecTv will not like this deal at all. And Comcast customers are just using highly modified Tivo software that Comcast controls.
4. They can work out the DRM issue. This is not like going to the moon or building an atom bomb. I could work out the DRM issue and i am just one man. I'm sure they can find developers somewhere on this planet to work out the DRM issue.
When they do, call us back. If they do, we'll have to see just what that DRM allows. If it is anything like the new one in WMP 11, it will br pretty bad, so until we see what they come up with, don't feel so lighhearted about it.
5. Even if it takes time, the service cannot be dead. How can it be?. Is ITV on the market tomorrow?. How long do you think they would take?. Me by myself would take a few months. ITV will not be coming onto the market until next year and as wonderfull as you think the itunes movie service is currently, it's not demonstrably better than onbox.
Very few of those who have reviewed the service would agree with that!
http://www.blackfriarsinc.com/blog/2...-isnt-any.html
http://weblogs.jupiterresearch.com/analysts/gartenberg/
Read down on this one, there is more, and you can't link to a particular day.
http://reviews.cnet.com/4531-10921_7-6636289.html
That's just the tip of the iceberg.
Apple is not gonna crush amazon by no means and in fact, ITV may be dead on arrival (or alive only in the mac community) if amazon and Tivo can get their shit together before ITV arrives. Again, you understimate the programmers on planet earth. We are a talented bunch of people. Heck, if we can develop software for a space shuttle, we can do the DRM thing. It's an afternoon job for one person. I'm sure it will take longer only because they have to figure things out, make sure no one can circumvent, etc but basically, this is a weekend job.
We don't know what Apple's "gonna" do. Many didn't think that the iTunes/iPod deal would work either. We'll see.
It's not just programmers. It's the company managers as well. How well has Vista been doing? What about all of those failed in-house projects that major companies start and then never finish? It's estimated that the number is over 50%.
Besides, DRM is far more a matter of what content providers will ALLOW, not what some programmers can come up with. What if they don't want the idea of a Tivo like device storing their movies?
a. iTV will have a hard drive according to Bob Iger
b. Steve Jobs is the largest shareholder of Disney
c. Disney owns Moviebeam
d. Moviebeam is not even close to being successful
Could there be a possibility that moviebeam
is incorporated into iTV to fight off Amazon+Tivo ?
iTv might, or might not have a hd, according to Bob Iger.
Apple has the steeper slope to climb. I can justify getting a Tivo (i cannot imagine living without a DVR, i wish there was one for radio) but ITV?. $299 to watch movies with sucky quality?. What would compel me to do that?. As to watching photos, my computer monitor is big enough.. i have no idea with this fascination of watching photos on TV. I would never buy a device to do that unless that device also does something else compelling. Itv is no match for Tivo (not yet at least). I would never get Tivo to watch amazon movies but i would get tivo to pause live tv and might decide to try amazon service. See the diff Melgross?. That is why i think Itv will only be a hit among hardcore mac fans. Really, $299 for a device to watch movies at horrible quality?.. I'll stick with netflix, thanks.
Currently, one needs to download them, sometimes un-rar them, then burn them -- and for some reason, some of the burned DVDs do not always work on DVD player (OK, it might be just me and my crappy player). I see this as a major selling point (although Apple will never be able to market it so explicitly). In that sense, tivo+amazon becomes a niche player, because they focus only on officially bought, and not on ripped collections.
Apple needs to make a deal with Nintendo to let the Wii play iTunes movies.
Apple needs to merge with Nintendo
Melgross, People get Tivo to for timeshifting purposes, not to get Amazon service. Amazon is leveraging existing and future Tivo installations. Itv on the other hand has to be bought just to stream movies and pictures on tv (yeah, like i am dying to watch my photos on my tv).
Apple has the steeper slope to climb. I can justify getting a Tivo (i cannot imagine living without a DVR, i wish there was one for radio) but ITV?. $299 to watch movies with sucky quality?. What would compel me to do that?. As to watching photos, my computer monitor is big enough.. i have no idea with this fascination of watching photos on TV. I would never buy a device to do that unless that device also does something else compelling. Itv is no match for Tivo (not yet at least). I would never get Tivo to watch amazon movies but i would get tivo to pause live tv and might decide to try amazon service. See the diff Melgross?. That is why i think Itv will only be a hit among hardcore mac fans. Really, $299 for a device to watch movies at horrible quality?.. I'll stick with netflix, thanks.
I have a DVR from Time Warner. It does everything I need. It does everything most people need. It's easier to get, and only costs $7.50 per month, with no upfront cost. If I want to upgrade to the HD version, I can bring this in and exchange it. The HD version costs the same $7.50 per month. The HD Tivo costs $800 plus the $13.50 per month.
Of the 4.4 million Tivo subscriptions, it's estimated that only a few hundred thousand are getting them from Tivo, without getting it from some other service involved with Tivo.
The point I was making, is that there isn't a very large independent Tivo subscribership. Most Tivo subscribers may not be allowed to do this, if they are getting it through DirecTv, or are using the highly modified software that Comcast has, which is under Comcast's control, not Tivo's. I hope you at least looked at some of the links.
If this is true, and it may very well be, as DirecTv, Comcast, and others, have no interest in allowing Amazon to compete with their own services. Why should they allow people to buy, or rent a movie, when that will result is less interest for their own product, such as movies on demand, etc?
Therefore, the few hundred thousand direct Tivo subscribers (numbered in the low 300 thousands a year or so ago), are not a large enough number to matter. Apple will easily sell many more than 300 thousand of these units.
Therefore, again, people will have to get a Tivo, either paying something, or getting it under one of the free giveaways (other than the HD model), if they will still exist, AND subscribe to the service in order to take advantage of this partnership, if it ever comes about.
Do you see what I'm saying?
If there were 5 or 6 million, or more, independent Tivo subscribers out there, it might very well be different. But there aren't.
Melgross, People get Tivo to for timeshifting purposes, not to get Amazon service. Amazon is leveraging existing and future Tivo installations. Itv on the other hand has to be bought just to stream movies and pictures on tv (yeah, like i am dying to watch my photos on my tv).
Some folks do want to see photos on their TV over a computer monitor. Eh.
Apple has the steeper slope to climb. I can justify getting a Tivo (i cannot imagine living without a DVR, i wish there was one for radio) but ITV?. $299 to watch movies with sucky quality?.
Why would 720p be sucky quality? Even if they don't go 720p on the next jump I'd expect at least 950x540 (1/4 HD).
Itv is no match for Tivo (not yet at least). I would never get Tivo to watch amazon movies but i would get tivo to pause live tv and might decide to try amazon service. See the diff Melgross?. That is why i think Itv will only be a hit among hardcore mac fans. Really, $299 for a device to watch movies at horrible quality?.. I'll stick with netflix, thanks.
I expect 720p from iTV (and even made a little side bet on it here). 1/4HD in 2007 is a nice stepping stone to 720p by xmas 2008...
I would also change your statement to that iTV will be limited to Apple fans...not Mac fans. You know...all the folks that like iTunes...most of which don't own a Mac.
Vinea
Some folks do want to see photos on their TV over a computer monitor. Eh.
Why would 720p be sucky quality? Even if they don't go 720p on the next jump I'd expect at least 950x540 (1/4 HD).
I expect 720p from iTV (and even made a little side bet on it here). 1/4HD in 2007 is a nice stepping stone to 720p by xmas 2008...
I would also change your statement to that iTV will be limited to Apple fans...not Mac fans. You know...all the folks that like iTunes...most of which don't own a Mac.
Vinea
Vinea, don't confuse ipod fans with itunes fans. Many people who get ipods do not use itunes. (yes, shocking i know). I wouldn't save you the trouble of googling the information (you can enter the terms "
ipod fans that use itunes". I believe you will get the info you seek.
Another thing, for all the ipod success, again, why would people buy Itv?. Hasn't microsoft tried the media center and failed?. Just cause apple comes out with a cute little device with the apple logo does not mean it succeeds. Remember Isight?. What a marvelous piece of technology (it got rave reviews from everyone). How many people went and spent 149 for it?. I know, i know.. Isight does not have the itunes brand cachet but still, people like their money. You have to give them a reason to buy this device. Another device from apple that is great is Airport extreme. Care to guess how popular that is?. Nice product.. i remember when it came out, people were raving about ability to play music remotely (remember that feature?). Wow, who would want to buy a regular wireless router after airport express came out.. i mean, come on.. the coolest product on the planet. I think D-Link is not losing sleep over that one. Again of course, Airport did not have the itunes cachet. I think apple is depending so much on using the words itunes and itv in the same sentence to drive sales but this is basically a mac fan device, it's not a mass consumer device.
Vinea, don't confuse ipod fans with itunes fans. Many people who get ipods do not use itunes. (yes, shocking i know). I wouldn't save you the trouble of googling the information (you can enter the terms "
ipod fans that use itunes". I believe you will get the info you seek.
Another thing, for all the ipod success, again, why would people buy Itv?. Hasn't microsoft tried the media center and failed?. Just cause apple comes out with a cute little device with the apple logo does not mean it succeeds. Remember Isight?. What a marvelous piece of technology (it got rave reviews from everyone). How many people went and spent 149 for it?. I know, i know.. Isight does not have the itunes brand cachet but still, people like their money. You have to give them a reason to buy this device. Another device from apple that is great is Airport extreme. Care to guess how popular that is?. Nice product.. i remember when it came out, people were raving about ability to play music remotely (remember that feature?). Wow, who would want to buy a regular wireless router after airport express came out.. i mean, come on.. the coolest product on the planet. I think D-Link is not losing sleep over that one. Again of course, Airport did not have the itunes cachet. I think apple is depending so much on using the words itunes and itv in the same sentence to drive sales but this is basically a mac fan device, it's not a mass consumer device.
iTunes 7 REGUIRES iPod users to use it for several things. now, your iPod will be manages through iTunes. Updates, firmware, etc.
Even if you don't buy music from iTunes you are likely to use it to manage your music you have gotten from somewhere else, as well to rip it.
The media center is a very different beast. It requires that the ugly, vertical computer be in you Tv room. not many people want that. Otherwise you have to use MS's version of the iTv, which is a simplistic device that is a bit of a pain to set up, and doesn't always work.
I thjink we can assume that this will be better.
iSight is quite a bit different. It's very specialised. We have two here. I had to get the second when my daughter stole mine.
The fact that Apple has been putting them into the laptops shows that they have indeed been popular.
Airport was pretty popular amongst Apple users, at least until far cheaper versions from others came out.
Vinea, don't confuse ipod fans with itunes fans. Many people who get ipods do not use itunes. (yes, shocking i know). I wouldn't save you the trouble of googling the information (you can enter the terms "ipod fans that use itunes". I believe you will get the info you seek.
Had I written iPod this objection would be more compelling but I did choose the term iTunes for a reason. Apple is the largest provider of legal downloads and while not a huge profit area for Apple it does show there is a large number of legal downloaders willing to buy given Apple's pricing model.
Another thing, for all the ipod success, again, why would people buy Itv?. Hasn't microsoft tried the media center and failed?. Just cause apple comes out with a cute little device with the apple logo does not mean it succeeds. Remember Isight?. What a marvelous piece of technology (it got rave reviews from everyone). How many people went and spent 149 for it?. I know, i know.. Isight does not have the itunes brand cachet but still, people like their money.
iSight is effectively free now as its built into every new mac (outside the mini and pro). As iChat becomes more ubiquitous for mac users then more folks of older macs will buy some sort of webcam. The problem for iSight (and web cams in general) is critical mass of users. Photobooth notwithstanding a webcam aint all THAT useful if you're the only one among your friends that has or uses one.
MS has tried the media center and whether it has failed is still to be determined. What appears to be obvious to MS, Sony and Apple is that the next area of new growth is in the living room. MS and Sony has the 360 (their media extender) and the PS3. Apple, unless it decides it wants to conceed the set top/living room/media distribution market entirely, has to introduce some set top box/media extender.
Given Apple's success in the iPod it should have a good shot at gaining traction from all the non-gamer iTunes users.
You have to give them a reason to buy this device.
Yes, its called content. TV and movie content. Hopefully (and I expect so) HD TV and Movie content.
Another device from apple that is great is Airport extreme. Care to guess how popular that is?. Nice product.. i remember when it came out, people were raving about ability to play music remotely (remember that feature?). Wow, who would want to buy a regular wireless router after airport express came out.. i mean, come on.. the coolest product on the planet. I think D-Link is not losing sleep over that one. Again of course, Airport did not have the itunes cachet. I think apple is depending so much on using the words itunes and itv in the same sentence to drive sales but this is basically a mac fan device, it's not a mass consumer device.
I think that Apple has decided that they want to be in the living room and are reusing the iPod model where they can drive hardware sales by providing a nice UI to an integrated store that provides legal downloads of content for a fair price. The Airport extreme, like the standalone iSight, seems like a stepping stone device to the end vision.
Certainly the iTV is not as cool as an iPod. Sales are likely to be far lower but it could also be that iTV/Mac/iTunes becomes a popular method of owning HD content rather than HD-DVD and BluRay. The price point is certainly lower than even Toshiba's offering and probably has a little room for price reduction.
Vinea
iTunes 7 REGUIRES iPod users to use it for several things. now, your iPod will be manages through iTunes. Updates, firmware, etc.
Even if you don't buy music from iTunes you are likely to use it to manage your music you have gotten from somewhere else, as well to rip it.
The media center is a very different beast. It requires that the ugly, vertical computer be in you Tv room. not many people want that. Otherwise you have to use MS's version of the iTv, which is a simplistic device that is a bit of a pain to set up, and doesn't always work.
I thjink we can assume that this will be better.
iSight is quite a bit different. It's very specialised. We have two here. I had to get the second when my daughter stole mine.
The fact that Apple has been putting them into the laptops shows that they have indeed been popular.
Airport was pretty popular amongst Apple users, at least until far cheaper versions from others came out.
The fact apple is putting them into laptops does not indicate popularity. Microsoft put MS Bob into every copy of windows and windows ruled over 75% of the OS market at the time.. did that indicate MS Bob was popular?. Apple put firewire into every powermac and almost into every computer.. is it popular?
Apple put digital audio out ports into every powermac.. is it popular? Don't mistake a default feature for popularity. I have a feeling Apple did not do a survey asking people if they wanted Isight integrated. They just went ahead and did it. Hey, they are trying to create critical mass for the product. Kudos to them for trying but Isight is by no means popular.
Had I written iPod this objection would be more compelling but I did choose the term iTunes for a reason. Apple is the largest provider of legal downloads and while not a huge profit area for Apple it does show there is a large number of legal downloaders willing to buy given Apple's pricing model.
iSight is effectively free now as its built into every new mac (outside the mini and pro). As iChat becomes more ubiquitous for mac users then more folks of older macs will buy some sort of webcam. The problem for iSight (and web cams in general) is critical mass of users. Photobooth notwithstanding a webcam aint all THAT useful if you're the only one among your friends that has or uses one.
MS has tried the media center and whether it has failed is still to be determined. What appears to be obvious to MS, Sony and Apple is that the next area of new growth is in the living room. MS and Sony has the 360 (their media extender) and the PS3. Apple, unless it decides it wants to conceed the set top/living room/media distribution market entirely, has to introduce some set top box/media extender.
Given Apple's success in the iPod it should have a good shot at gaining traction from all the non-gamer iTunes users.
Yes, its called content. TV and movie content. Hopefully (and I expect so) HD TV and Movie content.
I think that Apple has decided that they want to be in the living room and are reusing the iPod model where they can drive hardware sales by providing a nice UI to an integrated store that provides legal downloads of content for a fair price. The Airport extreme, like the standalone iSight, seems like a stepping stone device to the end vision.
Certainly the iTV is not as cool as an iPod. Sales are likely to be far lower but it could also be that iTV/Mac/iTunes becomes a popular method of owning HD content rather than HD-DVD and BluRay. The price point is certainly lower than even Toshiba's offering and probably has a little room for price reduction.
Vinea
Well content from only Disney is not content. Secondly, My objection to the device was independent of content. I don't care what content it has, why would i buy that content at inferior quality?. Secondly, why would i shell out 299 for the privelege of buying inferior content?.
Have you ever tried streaming regular quality video over wireless?.. how is apple gonna stream HD quality?. Just cause it sounds like a nice idea does not make it technologically feasible. There is a reason apple is offering low quality video (their ability to create higher content is not lacking). Even play uncompressed audio (not video, audio) is problematic over wireless. I can't imagine wireless having the ability to stream HD anytime soon (i'm not sure even 802.11n will be able to stream HD content satisfactorily). Really, if wireless can achieve throughput of 100 Mbps like wired, then we are talking, otherwise, no thanks
Also I merely used Isight to make a point. The fact that it's built into every laptop is irrelevant. It's not popular period. See my reply to Melgross about this. Built in does not equal popularity (like i told Mel, Apple is trying to achieve popularity, i applaud them for that but this product is not popular by any means).. that's like saying windows is popular cause it comes preinstalled with every windows computer.
Have you ever tried streaming regular quality video over wireless?.. how is apple gonna stream HD quality?. Just cause it sounds like a nice idea does not make it technologically feasible. There is a reason apple is offering low quality video (their ability to create higher content is not lacking). Even play uncompressed audio (not video, audio) is problematic over wireless. I can't imagine wireless having the ability to stream HD anytime soon (i'm not sure even 802.11n will be able to stream HD content satisfactorily). Really, if wireless can achieve throughput of 100 Mbps like wired, then we are talking, otherwise, no thanks
It really depends on your wireless setup and environment. I just tried it, 480p video streams just fine and this is through two walls and one piece of furniture. I get an occasional stutter on HD. I don't have any channel contention with neighbors though, I don't have neighbors close enough to make a difference.
All you really need is a good solid 8Mbps throughput, for wireless that probably means having your connection in "24Mbps" mode or better.
The fact apple is putting them into laptops does not indicate popularity. Microsoft put MS Bob into every copy of windows and windows ruled over 75% of the OS market at the time.. did that indicate MS Bob was popular?. Apple put firewire into every powermac and almost into every computer.. is it popular?
Apple put digital audio out ports into every powermac.. is it popular? Don't mistake a default feature for popularity. I have a feeling Apple did not do a survey asking people if they wanted Isight integrated. They just went ahead and did it. Hey, they are trying to create critical mass for the product. Kudos to them for trying but Isight is by no means popular.
I don't think that we can compare the much miligned "Bob' with any of the other things you mentioned.
iSights have proven popular. The excitement here, and on other boards, when it was thought that Apple might put them into a laptop, was substantial. I bought an iSight to play around with. My daughter "stole" that one, and I bought another.
I know plenty of people who have one, even if they don't use it every day.
Firewire is on quite a few computers, even if it hasn't become universal. One reason for that was because Intel had decided not to put it onto their mobo's because of a licensing dispute with Apple. But the millions of camcorder users are very happy that Firewire is in their machines.
And, I would also agree with you that Apple is trying to build a critical mass. Something doesn't have to be ubiquitous to be popular. The iPod is popular, but only a small fraction of people even here in the US, have them.
Well content from only Disney is not content.
Wow. That is a strange comment indeed! Apple started their video store with just some Disney "content" as well. Now they have over 200 shows, with more being added regularly.