Conclusions: DVD FORMAT WARS (2007)
As we move into the year 2007, I think we will see a definitive adoption of one of the two new DVD standards.
In my opinion, the clear winner is blu-ray. They have already started marketing, have a functional website that does not have a 24-character domain name, and have some blu-ray players officially on the market. Blu-ray's response time is snappier than HD-DVD when navigating menus, it holds more information, is more flexible and supports more standards, has 7 of 8 major studios supporting it (HD-DVD only has 3 of 8), has more titles currently out in blu-ray format, and supports 1080p. Does anybody see HD-DVD winning?
That said, the focus of this thread is more about the progression of Blu-Ray (or HD-DVD if you really think that format will win) next year and over the next few years. When do we expect a industry adoption of one of the two formats? When do we expect ~$200 players? How will this effect the movie industry?
In my opinion, the clear winner is blu-ray. They have already started marketing, have a functional website that does not have a 24-character domain name, and have some blu-ray players officially on the market. Blu-ray's response time is snappier than HD-DVD when navigating menus, it holds more information, is more flexible and supports more standards, has 7 of 8 major studios supporting it (HD-DVD only has 3 of 8), has more titles currently out in blu-ray format, and supports 1080p. Does anybody see HD-DVD winning?
That said, the focus of this thread is more about the progression of Blu-Ray (or HD-DVD if you really think that format will win) next year and over the next few years. When do we expect a industry adoption of one of the two formats? When do we expect ~$200 players? How will this effect the movie industry?
Comments
I am strongly against either one of these two formats, whichever one wins. The DRM on those things is so instrusive it makes me want to shoot myself.
You can ALWAYS break a DRM. :-)
Sony invested millions of dollars on investing this anti-copy cd technology but it totally failed within 2 min of release when someone took a marker and wrote a ring around the inside of the disc covering up the micro numbers.
Anyways, its a DVD, not music, you don't store it on your computer, I don't see why DRMs are a problem.
I don't see why DRMs are a problem.
They restrict your rights of ownership. If I own something, I should be able to do whatever I want with it. DRM effectively licenses a product to you instead of allowing you to own it.
I don't see why they even bothered with it. Current broadband speeds make pirating DVDs a problem. No one in their right mind would download nearly 50GB of data for one movie and you know they'll make them that size and use dual-layer discs.
Even the dual-layer thing is an issue for consumers because most can only afford single layer discs or at least don't have the drive space for a 50GB disc extraction so DRM on Blu-Ray is mostly pointless.
Now, it is the case that computers will become fast enough and hold enough space for consumer level Blu-Ray copying and possibly pirating but by that time, the Blu-Ray encryption will have been cracked anyway as mentioned so all it's going to do is exactly what itunes DRM does: slow the progress of technology because people want their consumer rights back.
Folks live with the DRM in iTunes.
Vinea
As long as managed copy isn't too heinous not too many folks will object to the DRM.
Folks live with the DRM in iTunes.
Vinea
I hate music DRMs. but that doesn't mean I don't buy music from iTunes. But at any rate, I think movie DRMs are both unnecessary and useless, and therefore are not a big deal.
The true next gen is digital distribution via the internet. iTunes will eventually get HD quality shows and coupled with the iTV will blow both out of the water.
I agree. It will just take time for people to get used to watching movies on their PC rather than their TV. And for internet speeds to increase for a bearable download time..
I think HD-DVD will win between the 2 formats, but overall I don't think either will have a high adoption.
The true next gen is digital distribution via the internet. iTunes will eventually get HD quality shows and coupled with the iTV will blow both out of the water.
Well a few years ago, when I had just heard the names, I would have through HD-DVD would have won as well, because it seems more marketable. But Blu-Ray has proved itself to be more technologically advanced, perform m better, and Sony really has been on the ball with advertising, promotion and a timely road map.
"The true next gen is digital distribution via the internet."
I agree. It will just take time for people to get used to watching movies on their PC rather than their TV. And for internet speeds to increase for a bearable download time..
Not for a long time... probably upwards of 10 years will content be distributed via the INTERNET. The US has a very awful internet network infrastructure with too low of bandwidth for that now or any time soon, and it takes time to build a good, faster network. Foreign countries right now are experiencing 100mbps speeds at the same price we pay for 3-5mbps. And the phone companies already owe us this as the state already paid for it in tax breaks, etc., as a part of an agreement with the phone companies.
At any rate, computers will NEVER replace home theater/tv. Computers WILL be highly integrated, but it will never replace home theater/tvs. Its not practical to have a 50" computer screen, but it is to have a 50" tv. And thats only one reason, there are many others.
Then....HD DVD launched and quite frankly the movies it launched with looked great. There was a $500 player and eager studios pumping out movies.
To date nothing has changed much.
HD DVD is still cranking out excellent movies and despite having less studio support it has more movies available for purchase.
Dec 11 will bring the second generation units with faster performance and smaller chassis. Currently HD DVD enjoys a 3:1 advantage in movies sales. 1.5 Million movies have been sold. Microsoft's Xbox 360 HD DVD add on is damn near sold out and it'll sell in the 100's of thousand this year.
Frankly the Playstation 3 is Blu-ray's only hope right now. The question we shall soon have the answer to is "are gamers really all that interested in watching movies?"
The Xbox 360 add on sales would seem to answer yes but we'll see.
Let me be clear on one thing. Neither format has the capability of offering a consistent advantage in picture or audio quality. Thus when shopping for a player I recommend choosing the most affordable player you feel comfortable with.
Forget the damn specs! Forget 30GB vs 50GB or 1080i vs 1080p they mean nothing. Both formats look fabulous at best and quite bad at worst. Look for studio support to even out. My guess is that Lionsgate and Buena Vista/Disney are onboard with HD DVD by Xmas 2007 and Fox and MGM join in 2008. This battle is not going to end early at all. HD DVD will have over a half a million players in homes by New Years Day. The momentum is clearly there to sustain the format.
The Playstation 3 should be a very nice device. Currently it is the cheapest way to get into Blu-ray. It looks like a capable device. It cannot kill HD DVD however as an Xbox 360/HD DVD add on provides %90 of what the Playstation 3 does.
Basically both formats are at a stalemate and we may see Univeral players become the norm before long.
DVD won out over VHS not only because it had far better quality, but also was loaded with extras, you didn't have to rewind, and it took up a lot less space. Even then, it took years before DVD took over.
HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have one single advantage, better fidelity, which most people won't even notice. They won't have a chance to hit it big until HDTV's have really crossed over.
By that point, broadband will have sufficiently advanced. Video-on-demand and iTunes will be streaming at least 720P. Devices like the iTV capable of digital downloads are the next generation. It's still a good 5 years though before it becomes mainstream.
At that point, BluRay and HD-DVD will be relegated to computer drives.
6 months ago I would have said that HD DVD was a long shot.
I think that if you go back and look at your posts 6 months ago, you were a rabid HD-DVD fan just like now.
I think that neither format will replace DVD any time soon, but Blu-ray will stay around because of the PS3. The
two formats are competing for the old laserdisk neiche - 1%-5% of the market composed of well heeled videophiles
and HD fanatics - the PS3 will ensure a dominance in players, which will attract publishers, but HD-DVD has no such
advantage and reason to stay alive.
This is SACD vs DVD-A all over again, but this time BluRay has a big advantage.
I think that if you go back and look at your posts 6 months ago, you were a rabid HD-DVD fan just like now.
Rabid isn't the term I'd use. I read the specs and thought HD DVD was the more sensible approach. 6 months later there are loads of data supporting my initial thoughts. HD DVD is cheaper. They never had yield problems making dual layer discs, they never saddled themselves with MPEG2 and they had their interactivity layer ready from the start with HDi.
There are now over 170k dedicated HD DVD players. 1.5 million discs have shipped for HD DVD and 2nd generation units are coming in Dec. I'd say that's a success and I stuck to my guns and will continue to do so. That doesn't preclude me from purchasing a Blu-ray player (most likely a PS3 if I do) but to date I haven't too far off the beaten path.
but HD-DVD has no such
advantage and reason to stay alive.
Sadly the historical record for your prognostications aren't good. Shall we dig up your diatribes about the PS3 being the "all everything" to computing responses for proof or should I let that embarassing part of your past die a cold death?
The reason why you guys have consistently been "off" is because you keep trying to tie technical merit to the winner of this format. It's not about technicals it's about marketing, value and execution. Blu-ray has done well marketing their product but they've failed thus far on value (Kilobuck STB players) and execution (Dearth of BD50 titles and no BD-Java)
Online downloads have portablility problems. You just can't expect consumers to jump on them unless they have some means of transportability. That means more DRM and better playback devices.
Both Blu-ray and HD DVD can meld the worlds of physical discs and downloadable content so I doubt we see a wholesale changeover this next decade.
P.S
Anyone telling you there's a clear winner has a bridge they want to sell you. I've pored over both platforms and they are just too close to call. Expect the same quality from both platforms so price is really going to be the factor that decides a victor here. We have parity now in pricing because of the PS3 launch. That's going to last 6 months tops. I expect by Xmas 2007 HD DVD players will be $300 on the lowend. Blu-ray will have to match this and it won't be with the PS3.
Shall we dig up your diatribes about the PS3 being the "all everything" to computing responses for proof or should I let that embarassing part of your past die a cold death?
Those predictions were accurate - the PS3 is a linux based computer, and could replace other general purpose computers in the home setting. It has a built in web browser, you can attach keyboard, mouse and monitor, and run a regular GUI like Gnome or KDE.
iTV just adds another forma as far as regular consumer goes. Nothing says it will win the format war. I can go to a strore and check out the picture quality on the HD-DVD player. Can't do that with iTunes.
I don't think either is going to take over the home space.
DVD won out over VHS not only because it had far better quality, but also was loaded with extras, you didn't have to rewind, and it took up a lot less space. Even then, it took years before DVD took over.
HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have one single advantage, better fidelity, which most people won't even notice. They won't have a chance to hit it big until HDTV's have really crossed over.
By that point, broadband will have sufficiently advanced. Video-on-demand and iTunes will be streaming at least 720P. Devices like the iTV capable of digital downloads are the next generation. It's still a good 5 years though before it becomes mainstream.
At that point, BluRay and HD-DVD will be relegated to computer drives.
There will always be a need to sell physical copies of something, especially of large stuff like movies. Broadband won't get magically better in a few years unless the phone/cable companies get their act together, and I don't foresee that happening soon.
At any rate, many people are shelling out the big bucks for HD TVs, why the hell would you not want true HD quality on the DVDs you buy? I think it will definitely catch on, and quickly. The main problem with the VHS to DVD switch was that it was not backwards compatible so you had to replace your old VHS stuff with DVDs. Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are both backwards compatible and pose no problem like that. The only problems right now is that the players are expensive, and if you buy one and that tanks, your stuck with the player and the disks.
Not to mention that the advantages of the new DVD formats are no just fidelity. You can also record LONGER video on these at not too much reduce quality from HD. In fact, a dual-layer Blu Ray disc can play up to 8 hours of HD footage. In addition, the devices have more interactivity, respond faster, and are more powerful.
Both allow you to take Web content and splice it with the disc content. How many times have you checked out the extras to find out the actors biographies are old and musty?
Consumers live in a networked environment now that DVD just cannot match. Old data is going to be a thing of the past. Frankly both formats deserve to live but we'll see how things play out.
Bingo! We haven't even scratched the surface of what these players can do interactively.
Both allow you to take Web content and splice it with the disc content. How many times have you checked out the extras to find out the actors biographies are old and musty?
Consumers live in a networked environment now that DVD just cannot match. Old data is going to be a thing of the past. Frankly both formats deserve to live but we'll see how things play out.
I don't know a whole lot about interactivity, but from what I've read in review of blu-ray vs. hd-dvd, the blu-ray dvds/players have out performed in interactivity and speed (of that interactivity).