iPod report boosts Apple shares to all-time high
Shares of Apple Computer closed at an all-time high Thursday after PiperJaffray released an upbeat research note stating that the company appears on track to see record-setting sales of its iPod digital music players during the December holiday quarter.
Apple's shares rose $1.56 to close at $85.61 on the Nasdaq Stock Market, representing an all-time closing high for the Cupertino, Calif.-based company.
In the research note, analyst Gene Munster told investors that an extrapolation of data from the first month of the quarter indicated Apple was on pace to sell between 14 and 15 million iPods before any sales of the new iPod shuffle model had been factored into the mix.
"It is likely that the impact of the iPod shuffle, which shipped on November 3, will have a material impact on the November and December NPD data and our current expectations for the quarter could prove to be low," the analyst said.
Investor optimism also received a boost from reports that Apple's iPod cell phone initiative is finally approaching fruition, with several reports out of the Far East confirming a recent release of the device to manufacturing.
At the same time, rumblings over to the company's other line of work -- its Mac business -- were similarly rosy.
In a research note released Tuesday, UBS Investment Research analyst Ben Reitzes said checks with national retailers revealed strong demand for Intel-based Macs leading into the crucial holiday shopping season.
Meanwhile, things weren't looking so bright for Apple's longtime rival to the north, as the analyst's checks turned up "little excitement" over Microsoft's Zune digital music player, which made its dismal debut earlier in the week.
"Two boxed Zune players sat ignored on the top shelf of a Plexiglas showcase packed with iPod accessories in a Virgin Megastore near Union Square in San Francisco's popular shopping district," wrote the Middle East Times.
Jake Brooks, a sales clerk at the store, told the paper: "I didn't even know they were there until a customer pointed them out."
"I'm sure we have more in a closet in the back somewhere," he said.
Apple's shares rose $1.56 to close at $85.61 on the Nasdaq Stock Market, representing an all-time closing high for the Cupertino, Calif.-based company.
In the research note, analyst Gene Munster told investors that an extrapolation of data from the first month of the quarter indicated Apple was on pace to sell between 14 and 15 million iPods before any sales of the new iPod shuffle model had been factored into the mix.
"It is likely that the impact of the iPod shuffle, which shipped on November 3, will have a material impact on the November and December NPD data and our current expectations for the quarter could prove to be low," the analyst said.
Investor optimism also received a boost from reports that Apple's iPod cell phone initiative is finally approaching fruition, with several reports out of the Far East confirming a recent release of the device to manufacturing.
At the same time, rumblings over to the company's other line of work -- its Mac business -- were similarly rosy.
In a research note released Tuesday, UBS Investment Research analyst Ben Reitzes said checks with national retailers revealed strong demand for Intel-based Macs leading into the crucial holiday shopping season.
Meanwhile, things weren't looking so bright for Apple's longtime rival to the north, as the analyst's checks turned up "little excitement" over Microsoft's Zune digital music player, which made its dismal debut earlier in the week.
"Two boxed Zune players sat ignored on the top shelf of a Plexiglas showcase packed with iPod accessories in a Virgin Megastore near Union Square in San Francisco's popular shopping district," wrote the Middle East Times.
Jake Brooks, a sales clerk at the store, told the paper: "I didn't even know they were there until a customer pointed them out."
"I'm sure we have more in a closet in the back somewhere," he said.
Comments
This story is wrong.
AAPL's all-time high was set in January 2006, and was 86.40.
This story is wrong.
yes- it came close- but no cigar.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AAPL
edit: first post btw!
-dissy
According to google, the high in Janurary 06 was 85.59 on jan 13th
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AAPL
86.40. Tommo is correct :
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAP...d=p36713111669
Google finance is terrible, btw.
-dissy
AAPL's all-time high was set in January 2006, and was 86.40.
This story is wrong.
The story is factually accurate, but people are interpreting it out of context.
On January 12, 2006, during mid-day trading, the stock reached 86.40.
However, the closing price on that date was was 84.29.
This article states that yesterday, AAPL closed at 85.61, which is the highest ever closing price.
Shares of Apple Computer hit an all-time high
There is your source of confusion. I guess technically (though I'm not that business-savvy) the all time high was reached in Janurary, but the highest closing price was yesterday.
-dissy
someone sold aapl (nice) for 86.40 and someone bought it (yikes- until now
The difference this time is that this isn't a spike. We're in a trend that'll keep going for some time. There will be hiccups along the way, for sure, but the trend is definitely up long term. One hiccup could come at Macworld if Jobs doesn't announce the iPhone. Another could come at earnings if Q2 guidance is disappointing.
AAPL could well go up into the 100+ range within the next 3 to 6 months and there could be a stock split as Apple's products get more popular. Lots of great stuff to look forward to like the true video iPod, iPhone, and Santa Rosa portables. Next year could Apple's biggest yet.
I'm new to the investing game. How do you know when it's a trend or a spike?
because the value of the stock has been climbing steadily with lots more good news on the way. There will still be spikes- AKA around the time of MacWorld where the value will spike up, only for profit taking to take over.... presumably.
but of course, all of this is educated guessing... There are all kinds of scenarios that can play out to make the stock plunge as well. Risk my man - learn and love it!
I'm new to the investing game. How do you know when it's a trend or a spike?
There is no way to know. Buying any stock at record high's is always a little scary. Before you invest, make sure that you understand how to reap returns in both rising and declining markets. If you only understand long investing you might get into trouble -- especially with tech.
because the value of the stock has been climbing steadily with lots more good news on the way. There will still be spikes- AKA around the time of MacWorld where the value will spike up, only for profit taking to take over.... presumably.
but of course, all of this is educated guessing... There are all kinds of scenarios that can play out to make the stock plunge as well. Risk my man - learn and love it!
To the apple investors here, do you guys participate in 'profit-taking' or are you just sitting tight? There have been 3 or 4 fluctuations around the $83 mark over the past several months. I'm guessing the profit takers have fixed on this point so far. How did they decide on that amount?
Now that the price has been somewhat consistant at $85, at least for a week, are the profit takers waiting for a higher profit-taking point? Are there enough positive expectations that profit takers think the stock will grow for a while?
Who are profit takers? Are they mostly on wallstreet, passing eachother notes saying 'it's time to sell.'
I'm trying to get a better feel for how successful profit takers and investors make their buying and selling decisions.
If any successful investors have advice, or books to recommend, particularly books that give the big picture of how the investment world (wallstreet) acts, please post here or email me. [email protected]
Where is all that Microsoft Money for advertising going?
Steve Ballmer reportedly used some of the funds for a new skin graft on his head....
Expectations are built into the price of the stock at every point in time. The stock won't move unless something happens which changes our expectations (for better or for worse).
>> Who are profit takers?
Anyone who sells. There is no specific class as you imply. It's all a big continuum.
Often times the media tries to make sense of things which simply cannot be made sense of. That's where you get these words like profit-taking.
I'm new to the investing game. How do you know when it's a trend or a spike?
A spike is sometimes easy to see if you watch the charts and notice dramatic "spikes"... otherwise a more "stable" stock chart will look like a low frequency audio wave.... take a look at IBM's chart (or any other blue chip for that matter) and you'll see what I mean....
There are always surges and plunges in any stock primarily when the whole market is resonding to something, but the more "stable" ones will be able to handle it well... I have to say APPL has been doing very well and is maintaining a high price versus a lot of other tech stocks...
To the apple investors here, do you guys participate in 'profit-taking' or are you just sitting tight? There have been 3 or 4 fluctuations around the $83 mark over the past several months. I'm guessing the profit takers have fixed on this point so far. How did they decide on that amount?
(snip)
If any successful investors have advice, or books to recommend, particularly books that give the big picture of how the investment world (wallstreet) acts, please post here or email me. [email protected]
I'm a long time AAPL investor and I've done quite well. I'm a retired Mac consultant. I'm not a pro investor by any stretch since I know very little about options. I've seen some über-savvy options traders lose millions playing AAPL options so I don't play. Just a long who tries to buy low and sell high. Haven't lost a penny and made quite a bit. Here's my take, FWIW:
To determine a fair price for AAPL, look at the forward earnings estimates and decide on a fair multiple. For example, right now Apple's forward P/E is 26.83. That seems fair since Apple deserves a higher multiple than other tech stocks. I wouldn't mind if it went to 30. Also, the future earnings estimates are too low and they've been climbing. Stocks usually go up if estimates are rising. For instance, in the past 30 days there have been 6 upward revisions for this quarter, 15 for next quarter, and 18 for the fiscal year. That's a nice upward trend and the stock has been moving up as well.
The current high estimate for this quarter is .83. Apple will likely beat that number. I'm expecting in excess of 18m iPods to be sold but the ASP will likely be somewhat lower due to the new shuffle. That means revenue won't scale relative to unit increases. No problem since revenue from Mac sales will be robust, unlike a year ago.
What really drives a stock is profit per share and the anticipation of future profits. If Apple announces something and investors think future earnings will significantly increase, the stock will surge. If an analyst suddenly raises the price target, the stock could rise. If there's a din in the rumor mill about a new product like the iPhone, the stock often goes up, especially if analysts and news stories back up the rumors. Last night, Arnold (MacRumors) and Bob (LoopRumors) were on CNBC talking about the iPhone. There's been such a buzz about the iPhone in the news, among analysts and rumormongers that investors are driving the stock up.
I think we'll see the 90s soon and maybe some spiking above 100 in January but that's just a guess. Overall, I see lots of good times ahead in the new year.
Anyone long Apple the last few years is a genius, anyone long Apple in the 90's was a fool.
The market is efficient, all known public information is already priced in. Tomorrow they could announce a massive restating of profits and the price could tumble. Jobs could step down to begin charity work for garage bands across the european baltic countries.
I think the marketshare gains will only snowball into great revenues next year, and my money is staying put, but you never know. It's not called risk versus reward for nothing.
Apple has to restate earnings before the end of the year so there will probably be some sort of hiccup in the stock when that happens. Just another buying opportunity.
Sure, Jobs could retire and the stock could take a brief hit but Apple has great people onboard so I don't see that as a problem for the long term investor.
A bigger long range concern is the economy with a recession looming a couple years or so down the road. Before that happens, Apple could split and again rise up to current levels.