tmay

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tmay
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  • Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

    MplsP said:
    This report is probably about as accurate as any of the others and is pretty typical. Apple (and pretty much all manufacturers) are typically quiet about such numbers, leading people to try and glean information from supply chain info, etc. 

    I suspect Avon was right. With any given hardware release, there is a certain amount of 'guaranteed' initial sales - hardware reviewers, people who upgrade every year, etc. The real question is the number of sustained sales. Depending what the features are, those could well continue to be lackluster, for the same reasons smartphone sales have been rather cool in general the last couple of years. 5G anticipation could keep things down a bit, too. Of course, that's making plans based on rumors based on promises of an un-proven technology with extremely limited availability. But hey, that's what people do, right?

    "I've already read many investor notes on this subject and yes, iPhone sales will remain static in the 190-210 million range annually for the foreseeable future. But the upside for services as a large revenue contributor continues to get missed by most analysts."

    https://twitter.com/BenBajarin

    He has a pretty good track record on Apple.
    Bart Ywatto_cobra
  • Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

    A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

    There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

    On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

    https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

    For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
    "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

    Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

    Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

    This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

    "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
    Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
      Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
      The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
      Second post and you're already bringing politics in?

      'For me' means 'in my opinion'. No idea where you got the 'I hate iOS' from.

      Still, I will repeat: 75 million is pretty good all things considered. That was the key takeaway.
      Do you not believe that Huawei is as well benefitted by the same politics, only from the Chinese POV? 

      Huawei is being used as a political football, true, but it's not like they haven't earned the situation that they are in.
      racerhomie3AppleExposedwatto_cobra
    • Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

      avon b7 said:
      All things considered, 75 million is pretty good.

      A major redesign and 5G for 2020 will possibly act as a double whammy against the 2019 refresh.

      There might even be a triple whammy if prices don't come down as those 2017 iPhone X purchasers who might be interested in upgrading this year (and have the money to do so) could eventually decide to wait until next year and squeeze even more out of their existing phone and the maximum possible out of the 2020 phone.

      On top of that, I saw a (possibly dodgy) article yesterday about Apple's difficulties in China:

      https://technode.com/2019/07/24/chinese-iphone-users-are-increasingly-opting-for-huawei-report/

      For me though, price remains the number one drawback.
      "For me though, price remains the number one drawback",

      Funny, I thought you hated iOS, so maybe you aren't telling the full story. Seems like you have an agenda to push lower prices.

      Oh, and that 75 million is just the initial order. I still expect Apple to need around 120 M of the new models over this model year, regardless of what is happening with Huawei.

      https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/tech/washington-post-huawei-north-korea/index.html

      This is potentially very damaging to Huawei, and may be yet another cause to maintain the restrictions on sales of U.S. origin components to Huawei.

      "Last month, the US president said he would ease some restrictions on Huawei, saying he would allow American firms to resume sales to Huawei of products that don't pose a security threat.
      Following the Post report, Republican and Democratic lawmakers renewed demands for a tougher stance on Huawei. 
        Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton urged Trump to impose orders banning the export of US parts and components to Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei that violate US export control or sanctions laws.
        The United States needs to make it clear "that any company that does business with North Korea — like Huawei reportedly did — will face American sanctions," the senators said in a statement."
        racerhomie3AppleExposedBart Ymuthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobrajony0
      • Apple's COO Jeff Williams is unsurprisingly more like Cook than Jobs

        You can tell they are a little spooked by how quickly they have updated almost every other product this year, when in the past, they ignored other products aging and concentrated on the iPhone. They’re pushing AppleCare hard to try to make up the lost iPhone revenue which goes to show how worried they are. 

        No one could possibly imagine, or at least you can't, the correlation of Apple's facilities expansion, increasing headcount, and "how quickly they have updated almost every other product this year".
        king editor the gratewatto_cobra
      • Sales of iPhones down year-on-year despite popularity of iPhone XR in US

        lkrupp said:
        mubaili said:
        Apple must not talk itself into believing that it cannot gain more market share. It must act aggressively, speed up the cycle, and push more variety of devices, i.e., do what they have done to the iPad line up to the iPhone line up. 
        Blah, blah, blah, yada, yada, yada. The Macintosh has never had more than a 10% share of the worldwide market and it has been a success for Apple all these years. Discerning customers see the value and TCO of Apple products and are very willing to pay the mythical Apple Tax. When has Apple EVER had a dominating share of ANY market? They have literally created or boosted markets out of thin air (personal computers, portable music players, smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, etc) only to see them dominated by cheap knock-offs and lookalikes. Through it all Apple has remained true to its mission statement to provide well designed, reliable, usable products that customers like to use. Again, tech blog forums like AI are filled with comments from a market segment that doesn’t value design, only cares about specs, and wants everything cheap.
        While writing up responses to Avon b7, with great job security at that, I decided to find out how many Huawei models use the Kirin 980 SOC.

        Interestingly enough, I found a link that had images for 53 different models of using the Kirin 980, and that is certainly less actually numbers of devices than those using Apple's current A12 SOC. That's a lot of engineering resources devoted to a line of products that starts at much lower price points than Apple's current product line, and basically doesn't challenge Apple all that well on the flagship end of the market, and this is all provable by the ASP's generated by both product lines. I don't have to note, but I will, that Huawei mostly competes in the Android OS device market, and not directly with Apple's iPhone.

        Compare and contrast to Apple that has only current three models, all with high ASP's, and all with long lifecycle's, and of course, all of the benefits of the expanding Apple ecosystem, and all of which carry at least a one year advantage in SOC performance over any Android OS devices. Whether Apple needs to make a lower price model, perhaps along the line of the SE, is certainly debatable, but there isn't any current crisis from not doing that.

        macplusplusStrangeDaysgilly33Bart Ywatto_cobra