tmay

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

Is Huawei actually competitive in China with iPhone 15 models?

Benchmarks for the Mate 60 come in kind of like an iPhone XR, which is late 2018, though in fairness, the Mate 60 has a long feature list, topped off with an option for satellite voice com, though I doubt that will actually be a big seller.

It's safe to state that Huawei is more likely to take share away from Chinese OEM's than Apple.

Every Mate 60 Pro purchase has the potential to take share away from Apple, especially those who had switched from Huawei over the last few years. 

Every Mate X3 and X5 also has potential to take share away from Apple, simply because Apple is not offering a folding or flipping option. 

There are no 'safe bets' though just lots of rumours. Apple has pent up demand which is normal for its sole, pre-Christmas phone releases. 

Huawei has returned to its pre-sanctions release cycle which means at least two flagship series per year (and possibly four) . 

The Mate series is the business series and the P series is the photography series. 

There is yet another launch event on the 25th of September and rumours of an RS phone to complete the late 2023 phone launches. 

Unless China sales pick up in general, it's clear Huawei will be clawing back share from all flagship vendors and that includes Apple. 

Just how much is the question. 

Rumours have claim Huawei has massively increased its original projections. There is no way to know for sure. 

Competitiveness isn't only a question of processor performance. That has been clear for years so while it will be a factor for some, for others it won't. 

Yes, satellite voice calling is a new advance and Huawei has had to ask users not to use it on planes (aviation regulations) after people started posting videos of themselves on social media using satellite voice calling while in flight. It's been getting a lot of attention but isn't the only new feature. 

We won't know how things are playing out in terms of share until around Q2 next year, and a lot could happen (politically speaking) between now and then. Assuming there are no major changes to that side of things, the real show should begin around MWC2024. 

waveparticle said:

tmay said:

waveparticle said:

maltz said:

waveparticle said:

Another US push for democracy! LOL One should keep in mind the National Security Council always has an ax to grind toward China. The better trustable source is the US State Department. 

Well, the state department also strongly advises against travel to China, and many companies and universities have policies that if you must go, don't bring any electronic devices into or out of China, or if you do, wipe or even discard them upon your return.  Nearly everyone is diversifying manufacturing out of China as fast as they can, even Apple.  The cat's been out of the bag for a few years now (even before COVID) that China is NOT friendly to the West - everyone is pretty much on the same page about that now.

This travel advisory is most likely directed toward some people involved with politics. I saw a news yesterday. The Chinese court sentenced a Chinese American living in Houston, Texas for espionage. He has been a leader of China unification. This is a surprise. You should keep in mind in US there are many Chinese who are anti-CCP. Then there are Americans who try to assist them. One example is a Republican congressman.

On the bucolic campus of Purdue University in Indiana, deep in America’s heartland and 7,000 miles from his home in China, Zhihao Kong thought he could finally express himself.

In a rush of adrenaline last year, the graduate student posted an open letter on a dissident website praising the heroism of the students killed in the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.

The blowback, he said, was fast and frightening. His parents called from China, crying. Officers of the Ministry of State Security, the feared civilian spy agency, had warned them about his activism in the United States.

“They told us to make you stop or we are all in trouble,” his parents said.

Then other Chinese students at Purdue began hounding him, calling him a CIA agent and threatening to report him to the embassy and the MSS.

Kong, who goes by the nickname Moody, had already accepted an invitation from an international group of dissidents to speak at a coming online commemoration of the Tiananmen massacre anniversary. Uncertain if he should go through with it, he joined in rehearsals for the event on Zoom.

Within days, MSS officers were at his family’s door again. His parents implored him: No public speaking. No rallies.

Moody realized it didn’t matter where he was. The Chinese government was still watching, and it was still in charge. Just before the anniversary event, he reluctantly decided not to give his speech.

“I think that the Zoom rehearsals were known by the Chinese Communist Party,” he said. “I think some of the Chinese students in my school are CCP members. I can tell they are not simply students. They could be spies or informants.”

https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/even-on-u-s-campuses-china-cracks-down-on-students-who-speak-out/

Remind me again how China values academic freedom.

There are stories like this in academic institutions throughout the Western world. The long arm of the CCP never sleeps.

I can add another story for you. A Chinese came from Sichuan, China got a PhD in political science at UCB. He found a job working for US government. Then in Trump administration he worked for Secretary of State Pompeio. He is strongly anti-CPP. He advised for US government how to attack CCP. When the new west back to his birthplace, his tribesmen immediately removed him from their family legacy. I do not know if this is ordered by CCP or not. 

BTW, since you talked about academic freedom, I knew several Chinese American in US universities who try to work with colleagues in China were prosecuted by DOJ. 

waveparticle said:

maltz said:

waveparticle said:

Another US push for democracy! LOL One should keep in mind the National Security Council always has an ax to grind toward China. The better trustable source is the US State Department. 

Well, the state department also strongly advises against travel to China, and many companies and universities have policies that if you must go, don't bring any electronic devices into or out of China, or if you do, wipe or even discard them upon your return.  Nearly everyone is diversifying manufacturing out of China as fast as they can, even Apple.  The cat's been out of the bag for a few years now (even before COVID) that China is NOT friendly to the West - everyone is pretty much on the same page about that now.

This travel advisory is most likely directed toward some people involved with politics. I saw a news yesterday. The Chinese court sentenced a Chinese American living in Houston, Texas for espionage. He has been a leader of China unification. This is a surprise. You should keep in mind in US there are many Chinese who are anti-CCP. Then there are Americans who try to assist them. One example is a Republican congressman.

On the bucolic campus of Purdue University in Indiana, deep in America’s heartland and 7,000 miles from his home in China, Zhihao Kong thought he could finally express himself.

In a rush of adrenaline last year, the graduate student posted an open letter on a dissident website praising the heroism of the students killed in the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.

The blowback, he said, was fast and frightening. His parents called from China, crying. Officers of the Ministry of State Security, the feared civilian spy agency, had warned them about his activism in the United States.

“They told us to make you stop or we are all in trouble,” his parents said.

Then other Chinese students at Purdue began hounding him, calling him a CIA agent and threatening to report him to the embassy and the MSS.

Kong, who goes by the nickname Moody, had already accepted an invitation from an international group of dissidents to speak at a coming online commemoration of the Tiananmen massacre anniversary. Uncertain if he should go through with it, he joined in rehearsals for the event on Zoom.

Within days, MSS officers were at his family’s door again. His parents implored him: No public speaking. No rallies.

Moody realized it didn’t matter where he was. The Chinese government was still watching, and it was still in charge. Just before the anniversary event, he reluctantly decided not to give his speech.

“I think that the Zoom rehearsals were known by the Chinese Communist Party,” he said. “I think some of the Chinese students in my school are CCP members. I can tell they are not simply students. They could be spies or informants.”

damien81 said:

Well, shoot. This changes things. I was dead set on the 15 in Blue, but now I'm wondering if it might be better to go Pro again this year. One of the biggest drawbacks to my 12 Pro Max was trying to use it for YouTube and Instagram videos, and suffering through the insanely slow transfer speeds and constant transfer failures. Glad I checked AI first...you've given me some food for thought. 

9secondkox2 said:

One thing that puzzles me…

tsmc has been producing 90,000 - 100,000 wafers per month for a while now, so that’s going to be around 50,000,000 or more 3nm SOCs per month. 

And somehow that’s not enough? Even if you factor in let’s say a 50% failure rate, that’s still 25 million SOCs every month. This capacity has been increasing since this time a year ago and the phones have been being assembled for a year already with an estimate of 85-90 million iPhones shipped. That’s a ton of SOCs. Way more than a hit iPhone year plus iPad run Would need. 

And if it’s much less than 50% failure rate since things have improved, that’s quite a surplus of capacity - even with 10% of each wafer going to competitors. 

So where is the constraint? Or is it due to Apple switching from N3b tech to N3E? But isn’t that supposed to increase yield further? 

According to Liu, TSMC is only able to meet about 80 percent of demand for its chip on wafer on substrate (CoWoS) packaging technology. This is used in some of the most advanced chips on the market today – particularly those that rely on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) which is ideal for AI workloads.

Liu expects this is a temporary bottleneck in the production of machine-learning accelerators and that additional CoWoS capacity should come online within a year and a half. Incidentally, TSMC recently announced plans to expand its advanced packaging capacity in Taiwan with a $3 billion facility at the Tongluo Science Park in Miaoli County.