charlesn

nubus said:

I miss the country of "The Hill We Climb".

Indeed. We are now the country of, "The Cliff We Drive Off" 

sdw2001 said:

Oh, look, calling his tariffs “nonsensical” and using scare quotes.  Shocker.

Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs are nonsensical as defined by the silly and preposterous "formula" used to determine them. Honestly, the sooner the empty shelves can get here, the better, because maybe that will finally wake Americans up to the real consequences of an idiot running the country into the ground.  

For our Grifter-in-Chief who is pulling in millions from corrupt schemes to monetize his Presidency on a daily basis, Cook's measly million is small potatoes--more like one small potato--that didn't get him the exemption for Apple. The far more likely reason can be seen in the White House's off-the-rails reaction to Amazon's plans to simply make the cost of tariffs known to its customers. The White House is terrified of that. They don't want Americans to know how much Trump is costing them, how much they're paying to support his "dumbest trade war in history," as described by the Wall Street Journal. Which brings me back to Apple: the company is a cultural touchstone in America, its products are wildly successful, and if prices suddenly double or more, it will be highly visible and Americans will know exactly who to blame--and it's not Tim Cook. 

It's either financial malpractice or stupidity or both for JP Morgan's position to be "not too bothered" by possible effects of tariffs on Apple's business going forward. Are you kidding me? Listen: no one, including his own Treasury Secretary per yesterday's interview with Bessent, can predict what the orange buffoon will do or what lies he will tell when it comes to China tariffs. But what's on the table right now is: an expiration "soon" of the "temporary" exemptions given to Apple and others, plus 145% tariffs. And, as Bessent confirmed, Trump is lying about ongoing trade talks--none are happening. I sure don't know what this lunatic is going to do next, but I do know this: he has been willing to do huge damage to his polling and perception of his presidency thus far to stick to his tariff insanity, so you can't assume he will step back from the brink. And even the fall back position he has floated of cutting the China tariffs in half, perhaps even unilaterally, would still leave them at near 75%, hardly a "win" for Apple. 

Yes, 2nd quarter may look better than expected because of people "stocking up" on Apple products before the tariffs hit in full, but if you're betting on Apple stock going forward, then you're betting that fiscal sanity will prevail in this administration and that's a very risky bet to make with a malignant narcissist who's in love with tariffs having the final say. 

avon b7 said:

The bread and butter iPhone hasn't really seen any constant leaps for a flagship device sector. They are drip feeding features to users (many of which have been available on Android for years. This year there will finally be a design change it seems, but the Pixel comparisons are already out there and Apple knows that will only intensify if it turns out to be true. 

Which phone maker has had "constant leaps" in its flagship device? Do you mean folding phones that haven't caught on since Samsung debuted theirs six years ago? What would a leap look like to you? It seems the conundrum for all phone makers is that phones do pretty much do everything that people need them to do, enough that you can string out your upgrade cycle much longer and not feel like you're missing anything. I would say--and data bears this out--that Apple has been most successful in marketing "Apple Intelligence" to its user base as a must have and reason to upgrade older phones. This is where you see the stark divide between the technosphere bubble and mass market buyers in the real world. In the bubble, Apple Intelligence is an embarrassing failure so far. (And as a bubble dweller, I don't disagree with that.) But out in the real world? It's the future-proofing must have feature because nearly a year of relentless Apple marketing has told you so. I also think comparisons of the IPhone 17 to the design of the Pixel will also be a bubble thing and here, I don't agree. The regular iPhone will retain its current design. The Pro models will still have the same signature iPhone triangular arrangement of lenses in the upper left corner just as they always have. The bar will not change that. And nobody will be looking at the Slim and thinking Pixel. 

I also think we're in the post "hardware horserace" era of phones. Meaning: most people have devices other than their phone in the same ecosystem. And whether you're Android or Apple, you're very unlikely to pick a phone outside your ecosystem and lose some or most integration with your other devices, just because a phone has this or that hardware feature you want. This is especially true for Apple users, who enjoy the tightest integration of all across Apple devices. I can't even imagine the feature(s) that would get me to leave iPhone for Android because the compromises to get them wouldn't be worth it.