robbyx

tzeshan said:

Apple is doomed in China. Even if Trump reverse his hostile altitude toward China, Apple has lost all the goodwill of Chinese people. If you don't believe this will happen, take a look of Samsung sales in China. Its market share is at low single digits. Chinese used to be fond of Apple due to Apple helping manufacturing jobs in China. Trump wants Apple to being those SLAVE jobs back to US. He says by avoiding tariffs he imposed on China, Apple can make up the high costs of labor in US. This idiot ignores Apple's market share in China. Apparently he doesn't care if Apple sell iPhones in China. This has never been the American way of doing business. Why the red states white Americans believe in him? 

Visit the red states one day and you will understand.

I agree with you on Apple in China.  I don't know the Chinese market very well and my observations are that of an outsider.  That said, I get the impression that Apple is not well liked in China and never really has been.  Now that homegrown Chinese brands are offering some high quality phones, I don't see Apple making much progress in the Chinese market.  Add all of the stupid politics into the equation and it does seem like Apple is doomed in China.

rogifan_new said:

robbyx said:

rogifan_new said:

robbyx said:

rogifan_new said:

robbyx said:

rogifan_new said:

robbyx said:

avon b7 said:

magman1979 said:

And right on cue, the salivating trolls come marching onto EVERY Apple site in existence by the truckload!

Forget trolls. What is your opinion on what is happening on iPhone? 

The rest of the business seems to be doing ok. They have a lot of cash reserves to pull on. That won't save them from a roller coaster ride, short term, but iPhone is suffering. Do you agree with TCs line or do you think he is airbrushing bits? Are prices too high? Is competition playing a part? Are iPhones underperforming on features? Etc.

The smartphone market is mature. I can easily afford the top of the line iPhone model, but I see no reason to upgrade from my 7 Plus. I think a lot of people feel this way.  Even if Apple dropped prices tomorrow, I still wouldn’t upgrade.  My 7 Plus is great. I’d like FaceID, but that’s not enough of a reason to upgrade. 

I dont think prices are the issue. There are iPhone models under $500.  Top of the line is very pricey, but Apple has nice offerings at several price points. The market is saturated and mature and this was bound to happen. 

If price wasn’t an issue why did Tim keep mentioning subsidies going away? Why did he mention not marketing the trade-in program enough? Both of those things scream price issues. Which was obvious when the front page of apple.com was displaying this:

I know many people with older phones and none of them WANT to upgrade. They don’t care about pricing. They are satisfied with their current devices. I was just helping a friend with her Mac today. It’s 8 years old and works fine.  She sees no reason to upgrade. The same thing is happening with phones.

As I said, Apple has phone models at a variety of price points. Stop focusing on the top of the line.  Phones are mature. The tech is mature. There aren’t a lot of new features. Faster, better screen, better camera...yawn. My phone is fast enough and the camera is fine. The days of annual upgrades are over.

Price is a factor, but it’s not the issue. 

I don’t think higher prices is the only factor but it is A factor. It’s not like upgrade cycles just started lengthening this year. It’s possible too that the XR just introduced confusion to the lineup. People weren’t sure what to buy so they didn’t buy anything.

That could be, but I think it really comes down to how good these devices have become. We don’t upgrade our computers or any other piece of tech yearly. It’s crazy to buy a new phone every year, especially when there aren’t many new features. Truly new features, not just improved tech. At some point we reach “good enough” and I think that happened with the 7, maybe even the 6s. Upgrade cycles have been getting longer and longer ever since.

If Apple dropped the price of the XS by 20% tomorrow, I doubt it would impact overall sales very much.  I think Apple could move more devices with promotions like a free year of Apple Music and/or increased iCloud storage amounts. After the first year, your customer is hooked and keeps paying.  The “first world” (I hate that term) is saturated. Dropping prices alone won’t solve the problem. In the “developing” (I hate that term too) world, price is key. They need a cheap, break-even device that brings people into the ecosystem and gets them hooked on services.  As much as I hate to think of Apple as a services company, that is the logical source of revenue growth. Recurring monthly charges.

You are right that regardless of price increases the upgrade cycle is lengthening. But I still think the price increases had an effect if for no other reason than the narrative around iPhone became about price. And maybe some people would have upgraded but balked when the flagship that used to start at $649 now started at $999. And then this year even the new cheaper model was $100 more than the flagship model was a couple years ago.

Personally I’d like to see Apple move to a good/better/best model for iPhones where good and better aren’t just the previous years phone at a cheaper price. Have 3 new phones that are good value for the money with no confusion over which one to get. The only thing that complicates this idea is size as some people want really big phones and some want an SE sized phone. I would just like to see the line up be clean. And only keep older models around for very price sensitive markets like India.

The narrative is definitely about price, unfortunately.  It's like bashing BMW for selling the i8 at such a ridiculous price while ignoring all the other perfectly good cars that BMW sells.  I agree with you on good/better/best, but I think that's kind of what we have now.  It's just a matter of perception.  Keeping an older models in production for another year or two and making it the "good" tier is a lot cheaper than designing three new phones each year, plus all of the production and tooling costs associated.  You can get a new iPhone 7 Plus for under $500 today.  I doubt they could deliver a newly designed "good" tier phone every year for that price.

I also agree that the product line is confusing, and that goes for everything, not just iPhones.  Thank goodness we're not back to the Quadra and Performa days (yet), but things have gotten bad.

Apple does have good/better/best from a pricing standpoint but there’s nothing exciting about a 2 or 3 year old phone. If Apple is transitioning into a services company then they may need to be willing to sacrifice some hardware margin as they transition. I think Apple absolutely could design a really good phone for $500 (look what they did with the iPad announced in March). But are they willing to sacrifice some margin to do so? Time will tell.

I agree about the exciting part.  I also think you're right about margins.  But I don't think that Apple is transitioning into a services company.  Services will become a greater part of the revenue mix, but without hardware, there are no services.  At it's core, Apple will always be a hardware company.  I don't ever see them more or less giving away hardware in the hopes of capturing services revenue.

AppleExposed said:

robbyx said:

rogifan_new said:

This tweet too is spot on:

Rene Ritchie (@reneritchie) 1/2/19, 5:24 PM IMHO, complaints about pricing, price points, home buttons, headphone jacks, batteries, upgrade cycles, etc. are all valid but are also all besides the point, which remains:  Can Apple transition iPhone from growth driver to platform that enables more growth drivers?  That’s it.

This is pretty spot on.  Apple has hundreds of millions of iPhone customers.  How do you get those people to buy more things?  And what are those things?  Clearly they aren't Macs.  They are AirPods, however.  And Apple Music subscriptions.  Video is the logical next step.

As someone who has bought Apple products (and stock) for almost 40 years, I remember many long years where Apple sold 1 device for every 1000 the other guys sold.  They struck silver with the iPod and then gold with the iPhone.  The iPod appealed to all sorts of people.  You didn't have to be a techie.  Apple built a better mousetrap and the public responded.  And then came the iPhone.  Everyone needs a phone.  Apple built a better phone and, again, the public responded.  So what else has incredibly broad appeal and needs a better use experience?  And is Apple even the company to deliver these days?  I personally wish they'd focus more on home automation and deliver some killer first party products in that area.  I also think they should get serious about audio, maybe buy Sonos.  HomePod was a huge miss.  I would have bought at least 6 for my house if it wasn't such a gimped product.

I disagree that HomePod is a miss. People are comparing the $350 HomePod to FREE-$20 buck Echos which is just dumb. It's not a direct competitor to smart speakers. It's a high end bluetooth speaker with a Siri "musicologist". It's selling and it's doing its job.

Where could Apple strike Gold?

1. Cars.

2. Glasses.
I have an idea that (hopefully) Cook will read that would make Apple Glasses a miracle device. If Apple can think of better ideas than a poor forum commenter then they will strike gold.

3. Health.
Apple is already a leader here.

Now as far as services:

1. Shopping.
A pre-installed app that can act as a mall, an "eBay" and an "amazon" all in one would pull in billions.

2. Expanding the TV app.
Adding an Apple Service, a possible sports service and movies in theaters would pull in more billions.

3. Expanding Didi.
Apple could also pre-install Didi into iOS devices and go head on with Uber/Lyft in western countries.

I disagree on HomePod.  Sure, if your expectations are low, it's doing ok, but it could have been so much more.  Why can't it do surround?  Why doesn't it have Ethernet?  Why can't Siri play the lossless audio on my home Mini (from iTunes) instead of wasting my bandwidth and streaming lower quality audio from the cloud?  It's a weak, gimped product compared to Sonos and other home audio solutions.  If you compare it to bluetooth speakers, sure, it's great (but overpriced).  I think Apple could do a whole lot more in the audio space.  There are two kinds of audio customers: the ones who don't care about sound quality and the ones who care a lot.  There's no middle ground.  Apple targeted a non-existent middle.  HomePod is too expensive for people who don't care about audio and it's underwhelming if you're someone who cares a lot.  I'm sure it sounds better in a pair.  I returned mine before they released that feature.  Anyway, I see it as a miss.  And it's definitely a miss from a sales standpoint for me.  Like I said, I would have bought at least 6 for my home.  Instead, I stuck with and am expanding my Sonos system.

Cars.  Of the three things you list - cars, glasses and health - I see cars as the only one comparable to iPod and iPhone in terms of mass appeal.  Everyone listens to music.  Everyone talks on the phone.  Everyone drives.  Now, that said, can Apple pull it off?  I have my doubts.  It's so far out of their wheelhouse.  Apple has been able to shine in the consumer electronics space.  Will they bring enough to the car market to really set them apart and make people want to take the chance on an Apple car?  I'm a huge Apple fan and longtime customer, but I seriously doubt I'd ever buy an Apple car.  And I just can't even imagine building out the infrastructure to support the selling and servicing of vehicles.  It all seems a bit crazy to me.

Glasses.  Niche.

Health.  Niche.  One would think (hope!) otherwise, but it's pretty obvious from the (rising) obesity rate in the US that most people don't care about their health.

That isn't to say that glasses and health can't be very interesting and profitable niche markets, but I don't see them ever having the broad potential appeal of cars, portable audio, and phones.

Services.  Shopping is an interesting one.  I hadn't thought of that, but I agree that it could be huge if executed correctly.  Video makes the most sense to me, whether it's a new service or they acquire (and rework!) Netflix.  I also think there's a huge potential hardware market in TV as well.  I know many people think Apple's TV set dreams are dead, but I don't believe that.  If Apple got serious about the home - home automation, home audio, and TV - I think they could dominate in the way they dominated portable audio and cell phones.  I'd much rather see them focus on the connected home market than cars.

I can't say that I agree on Didi.  I personally think Apple is best to avoid any of these sharing economy services as it's still very much the wild west.  At its core Apple is a hardware company and I don't see that changing.  I think they should focus on services that directly work to sell hardware.

rogifan_new said:

AppleExposed said:

rogifan_new said:

AppleExposed said:

rogifan_new said:

robbyx said:

rogifan_new said:

robbyx said:

avon b7 said:

magman1979 said:

And right on cue, the salivating trolls come marching onto EVERY Apple site in existence by the truckload!

Forget trolls. What is your opinion on what is happening on iPhone? 

The rest of the business seems to be doing ok. They have a lot of cash reserves to pull on. That won't save them from a roller coaster ride, short term, but iPhone is suffering. Do you agree with TCs line or do you think he is airbrushing bits? Are prices too high? Is competition playing a part? Are iPhones underperforming on features? Etc.

The smartphone market is mature. I can easily afford the top of the line iPhone model, but I see no reason to upgrade from my 7 Plus. I think a lot of people feel this way.  Even if Apple dropped prices tomorrow, I still wouldn’t upgrade.  My 7 Plus is great. I’d like FaceID, but that’s not enough of a reason to upgrade. 

I dont think prices are the issue. There are iPhone models under $500.  Top of the line is very pricey, but Apple has nice offerings at several price points. The market is saturated and mature and this was bound to happen. 

If price wasn’t an issue why did Tim keep mentioning subsidies going away? Why did he mention not marketing the trade-in program enough? Both of those things scream price issues. Which was obvious when the front page of apple.com was displaying this:

I know many people with older phones and none of them WANT to upgrade. They don’t care about pricing. They are satisfied with their current devices. I was just helping a friend with her Mac today. It’s 8 years old and works fine.  She sees no reason to upgrade. The same thing is happening with phones.

As I said, Apple has phone models at a variety of price points. Stop focusing on the top of the line.  Phones are mature. The tech is mature. There aren’t a lot of new features. Faster, better screen, better camera...yawn. My phone is fast enough and the camera is fine. The days of annual upgrades are over.

Price is a factor, but it’s not the issue. 

I don’t think higher prices is the only factor but it is A factor. It’s not like upgrade cycles just started lengthening this year. It’s possible too that the XR just introduced confusion to the lineup. People weren’t sure what to buy so they didn’t buy anything.

DEAD ON with the XR confusion. A lot of people went into the Apple store prepared to drop $1000+ on a XS and left with a cheaper XR with a larger screen....

Or went into the store and left with nothing. If the XR was doing well why would Apple be marketing it $300 cheaper (with trade-in) on the front page of their website? Why would carriers like Sprint and T-Mobile be offering it for free with new activations?

Oh of course. People went in with $1000+ and left with nothing. DOOMED!

The stock will open down about 7%. That’s after being down almost 30% over the last quarter. But keep covering your eyes and ears if it makes you feel better.

Buying opportunity.

rogifan_new said:

robbyx said:

rogifan_new said:

robbyx said:

rogifan_new said:

robbyx said:

avon b7 said:

magman1979 said:

And right on cue, the salivating trolls come marching onto EVERY Apple site in existence by the truckload!

Forget trolls. What is your opinion on what is happening on iPhone? 

The rest of the business seems to be doing ok. They have a lot of cash reserves to pull on. That won't save them from a roller coaster ride, short term, but iPhone is suffering. Do you agree with TCs line or do you think he is airbrushing bits? Are prices too high? Is competition playing a part? Are iPhones underperforming on features? Etc.

The smartphone market is mature. I can easily afford the top of the line iPhone model, but I see no reason to upgrade from my 7 Plus. I think a lot of people feel this way.  Even if Apple dropped prices tomorrow, I still wouldn’t upgrade.  My 7 Plus is great. I’d like FaceID, but that’s not enough of a reason to upgrade. 

I dont think prices are the issue. There are iPhone models under $500.  Top of the line is very pricey, but Apple has nice offerings at several price points. The market is saturated and mature and this was bound to happen. 

If price wasn’t an issue why did Tim keep mentioning subsidies going away? Why did he mention not marketing the trade-in program enough? Both of those things scream price issues. Which was obvious when the front page of apple.com was displaying this:

I know many people with older phones and none of them WANT to upgrade. They don’t care about pricing. They are satisfied with their current devices. I was just helping a friend with her Mac today. It’s 8 years old and works fine.  She sees no reason to upgrade. The same thing is happening with phones.

As I said, Apple has phone models at a variety of price points. Stop focusing on the top of the line.  Phones are mature. The tech is mature. There aren’t a lot of new features. Faster, better screen, better camera...yawn. My phone is fast enough and the camera is fine. The days of annual upgrades are over.

Price is a factor, but it’s not the issue. 

I don’t think higher prices is the only factor but it is A factor. It’s not like upgrade cycles just started lengthening this year. It’s possible too that the XR just introduced confusion to the lineup. People weren’t sure what to buy so they didn’t buy anything.

That could be, but I think it really comes down to how good these devices have become. We don’t upgrade our computers or any other piece of tech yearly. It’s crazy to buy a new phone every year, especially when there aren’t many new features. Truly new features, not just improved tech. At some point we reach “good enough” and I think that happened with the 7, maybe even the 6s. Upgrade cycles have been getting longer and longer ever since.

If Apple dropped the price of the XS by 20% tomorrow, I doubt it would impact overall sales very much.  I think Apple could move more devices with promotions like a free year of Apple Music and/or increased iCloud storage amounts. After the first year, your customer is hooked and keeps paying.  The “first world” (I hate that term) is saturated. Dropping prices alone won’t solve the problem. In the “developing” (I hate that term too) world, price is key. They need a cheap, break-even device that brings people into the ecosystem and gets them hooked on services.  As much as I hate to think of Apple as a services company, that is the logical source of revenue growth. Recurring monthly charges.

You are right that regardless of price increases the upgrade cycle is lengthening. But I still think the price increases had an effect if for no other reason than the narrative around iPhone became about price. And maybe some people would have upgraded but balked when the flagship that used to start at $649 now started at $999. And then this year even the new cheaper model was $100 more than the flagship model was a couple years ago.

Personally I’d like to see Apple move to a good/better/best model for iPhones where good and better aren’t just the previous years phone at a cheaper price. Have 3 new phones that are good value for the money with no confusion over which one to get. The only thing that complicates this idea is size as some people want really big phones and some want an SE sized phone. I would just like to see the line up be clean. And only keep older models around for very price sensitive markets like India.

The narrative is definitely about price, unfortunately.  It's like bashing BMW for selling the i8 at such a ridiculous price while ignoring all the other perfectly good cars that BMW sells.  I agree with you on good/better/best, but I think that's kind of what we have now.  It's just a matter of perception.  Keeping an older models in production for another year or two and making it the "good" tier is a lot cheaper than designing three new phones each year, plus all of the production and tooling costs associated.  You can get a new iPhone 7 Plus for under $500 today.  I doubt they could deliver a newly designed "good" tier phone every year for that price.

I also agree that the product line is confusing, and that goes for everything, not just iPhones.  Thank goodness we're not back to the Quadra and Performa days (yet), but things have gotten bad.