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  • HomePod sales up in fourth quarter, Amazon and Google extending lead

    Let see 38.5 million units sold.

    Amazon 13.7% (5,274,500 units) x $20 
    $105,490,000 Revenue
    Reasonable to assume less than 5% profit margins 
    $5,274,500 profit

    Apple 1.6% (616,000 units) x $349
    $214,984,000 Revenue 
    Reasonable to assume historic profit margins of 30%
    $64,495,200 profit

    Think I’ll hold my Apple positions.

    thtlolliverDan_DilgerDave Kapwatto_cobra
  • iPhone replacement cycles slowing down to four years, pose threat to services, analyst say...

    kitatit said:
    wood1208 said:
    4 years replacement cycle sounds unreasonable. People go at most 2 1/2 to 3 years most.
    I used to be a 2year upgrader. But Apple prices now have made me choke and hold off the last two years. I was absolutely ready to buy an iPhone X but just can’t stomach the price. OK, here comes the XS, I’ll get that..... what? They raised the price again! Choke again, OK iPhone 11?.... 

    It’s always been a case of you couldn’t give me an Android for free but the thought of switching to Android has actually crossed my mind now. 

    My iPhone 6 is looking like a 5year upgrade cycle. 
    We’ll surely it’s crossed your mind that with an Android you wouldn’t have the option of waiting 5 years between upgrades. The very fact you can wait this long speaks to the reality that iPhone has a much lower total cost of ownership. When your financial circumstances allow, if you upgrade to a new iPhone you can expect to get the same if not more years out of it. 

    Figuring $1,100 for a new iPhone XS Max, that comes out to $18 a month or less over its life cycle.
  • What to expect from Apple's holiday quarter results on Tuesday

    I am not worried at all. Services are great. People who need larger displays can easily get a $330 iPad instead of a $1100 XS Max.
    All Apple needs right now is a killer $500-600 ARM Mac. That would kill the already slowing laptop market. Hopefully that launches in a few years.
    The economic opportunity provide by an ARM Mac can’t be overstated. If they maintain margins and pass the cost reduction down to customers Apple will be able to address a large portion of the PC/Laptop market. I believe Apple has around 10% of this market currently. Even if you write of 75% of this new market as customer who would never change due to various non price factors, that leaves are huge amount of that leaves 22.5% to sell to at Apple margin levels while the 67.5% continue earning scraps.
  • Google pays Fossil $40M for smartwatch IP to compete with Apple Watch

    “... then in true Google fashion, the technology will be abandoned within two to three years because it was not an immediate success.”

    There fixed it for you 
    McKelvey. Motorola, Boston Dynamics, Google Fiber the list goes on. It seems anything that actually takes work to accomplish Google gives up on, with the noteable exception of using user data to sell ads.
  • Spotify maintains lead on Apple Music with 87M paid subscribers

    jbdragon said:
    Apple doesn't need to have more users than Spotify. Apple only needs to break even or make a small profit. Spotify has been around now for 10 years and has never turned a profit. In fact every year they lose more money. As they get larger, they lose more and more money. They have been a money pit. How long can they keep this up? It's all those free leaches putting a big drain on them. Good starting up to get people on board and make a name for yourself. But at this point, all those free users make their numbers much larger. If they stop that, they would lose a lot of people, and their worth would come crashing down. So now they're stuck.

    The other thing is they are at the mercy of the music industry. They really have no other source of income. How much longer are people going to give them millions to keep their doors open? If they can get into the black and stay there, it'll going to take years to get out of debt.
    I agree, this company has no real path to profitability. I feel pretty good about my 2 year put positions.