hattig

tmay said:

You might be close on the CPU cost for the low end models, but I'd guess that Apple is going to need multiple configurations, with a very large die for a Mac Pro. Then there's the integration of the CPU into the SOC, and that is likely to be a comparatively large package compared even to the iPad. Apple could see some real savings once the new Mac line has been established.

That said, I agree with Rayz2016. Pricing of new models comparable to current models will be very close to the same.

Agreed that the Mac Pro will have its own chip design and won't use the laptop design.

Also, it's possible for Apple to go with an AMD-like chiplet architecture as well - a compute die and an I/O die for example. Would let them have a range of configurations in the Mac Pro, and small (cheap, high yield) CPU dies in various configurations (1x 16C, 2x 16C, 4x 16C for example). 

Yes, I don't think Apple will cut pricing massively, if at all, with the transition. I believe they will actually go for shock-and-awe performance improvements - a 12 core CPU replacing 4C Intel could do that.

If you make your own silicon designs, then you have two costs - upfront research, design, testing, and then manufacturing.

The more you sell, the more you amortise the first cost over all of the sold devices. Apple is already investing the money into the first part for the iPhone/iPad SoCs - it is an incremental additional cost to do a new design for Macs. But let's say it's $500m for a 5nm design at this stage. Apple will ship 16m Macs a year. That's $31 per Mac. It'll be lower because a lot of that cost is shared with iPhone SoC. 

A 5nm wafer processing cost might be $12k (dropping as it matures) right now. It's 80% denser than 7nm. Let's assume they use that for the additional CPU cores and GPU cores the desktop chip would have and the resulting chip is 10.1mm x 12.6mm just like the A12Z. Even with poor yields you get over 300 fully working die per wafer out of ~450. That's a fabrication cost of $40 for each fully working die (and you'll get partially working dies as a bonus as well, for your lower-end products).

I imagine that Apple want to grow the Mac business and will use lower priced Macs with those recovered dies to achieve that - although there's a certain level of quality that Apple won't go below.

How much does Apple pay Intel for the chips in their laptops currently? Sure, it's discounted over list price, but it will be far, far higher than $71.

These numbers are extremely rough estimates.

The memory is most likely surface mounted LPDDR4X. The GPU would suffer otherwise.

I expect the A14Z (or whatever they call the Mac Apple Silicon) to utilise LPDDR5 and not be upgradeable in the slimmer form factors.

Early devices might use LPDDR4X still. These memory controllers usually get slower DDR support as well, so DDR4 for the expandable devices (DDR5 when that becomes available - later than LPDDR5). I don't think HBM will be used in the first generation, but if Apple ever go large on the integrated GPU this may be their only option when that happens.

It'll almost certainly integrate USB4 for Thunderbolt functionality. If not, they'll dedicate some PCIe lanes for an external Intel thunderbolt controller. It's possible Apple will split the chip into an I/O die and the compute die, but on the same package.

PCIe will have to be included, it'll have to be PCIe4, and I would expect 4x for SSD and 8x/16x for discrete GPU (for devices that need more than what the Apple GPU can do internally), and maybe another 4x for other devices/storage.

There's a good chance that it'll be an ARMv9 ISA, but not 100% - but certainly by the time the Mac Pro migrates.

Note in the State of the Platform show, they do confirm it's ARM in the Rosetta 2 section, for those doubters out there (or the RISC-V theorists!).

ricomadiko said:

dk49 said:

They didn't mention how much this kit will cost to the developers. Or is it just free for developers..😅

And "as part of the program, you’ll have limited access to a Developer Transition Kit (DTK), which will be shipped to you, for developing and testing your Universal apps. The DTK is owned by Apple and must be returned."

That's a real shame it has to be returned.

OTOH these will be like gold dust but priced like platinum ingots in 10 to 20 years time!

I suspect the first ARM Mac will be the Mac Mini, maybe based around the next iPad SoC rather than the eventual full Mac SoC.